by Andrew P. Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
January 31, 2025
Milk Production
Milk production in the 24 major states during December totaled 18.0 billion pounds, down 0.4 percent from December 2023. Production per cow for December averaged 2,020 pounds. The number of milk cows was 8.91 million head, 8,000 less than November 2024. November production was revised up 0.5% from preliminary estimates. For milk production in the top 5 producing states, California decreased 6.8% from December a year ago; Wisconsin up 0.1%; Texas up 7.5%; Idaho up 3.5%; and New York up 0.7%. Other states with large production increases were South Dakota (6.4%) and Colorado (3.9%). States with large production decreases were Oregon (-8.2%) and Arizona (-5.1%).
Milk Price and Utilization
The Southeast Uniform milk price for December was $24.18, down $1.28 from November and $2.17 higher than December 2023. The Appalachian Uniform milk price was $23.43 down $1.29 from November and $2.04 higher than December 2023. December’s Class III price was $18.62, down $1.33 from November, and $0.61 lower than December a year ago. The Class IV price was down $0.38 at $20.74, and $1.51 higher than December 2023. The Class I Mover price for February is $22.17, up $0.89 from January. The milk/feed ratio for December was 1.97, down 0.91 from November.
Southeast Class I utilization was 77.59%, down 1.52% from November and 5.04% higher than December a year ago. The Uniform butterfat price was $3.0125, down 5.82 cents from last month and 19.81 cents lower than December 2023. The December Class I price was $25.23. January Class I price is $24.18. Appalachian Class I utilization was 68.89%, down 2.00% from November, and 1.26% higher than December a year ago. The Uniform butterfat price was $3.0003, down 7.03 cents from last month and 18.42 cents lower than December 2023. The December Class I price was $24.83.
Cheese Production and Stocks
Total cheese production in November was 1.15 billion pounds, down 1.7% from a year ago while butter production was up 4.4% to 171 million pounds. Nonfat dry milk (NDM) production was up 2.8% compared to a year ago with total production at 120 million pounds while skim milk powder (SMP) production was down 33.5% to 47.0 million pounds compared to a year ago. Total cheese stocks at the end of December were down 6% from December a year ago and up 2% from the previous month while butter stocks were up 4% from last month and up 11% from a year ago.
Cow Slaughter
Dairy cow slaughter in December was 224,500 head, up 14,200 head from November and 200 head less than December 2023.
Southeast Federal Order Prices
| Month | Uniform Price $/cwt. | Class I Price $/cwt. | Class III Price $/cwt. | Class IV Price $/cwt. | Class I % Utilization | Butterfat Price $/lb. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24 | 24.25 | 24.91 | 19.79 | 21.31 | 74.93 | 3.5700 |
| Aug 24 | 24.57 | 25.12 | 20.66 | 21.58 | 79.24 | 3.5927 |
| Sep 24 | 25.01 | 25.40 | 23.34 | 22.29 | 79.22 | 3.6019 |
| Oct 24 | 25.37 | 26.97 | 22.85 | 20.90 | 81.31 | 3.374 |
| Nov 24 | 25.46 | 26.33 | 19.95 | 21.12 | 79.11 | 3.0707 |
| Dec 24 | 24.18 | 25.23 | 18.62 | 20.74 | 77.59 | 3.0125 |
Appalachian Federal Order Prices
| Month | Uniform Price $/cwt. | Class I Price $/cwt. | Class III Price $/cwt. | Class IV Price $/cwt. | Class I % Utilization | Butterfat Price $/lb. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24 | 23.72 | 24.51 | 19.79 | 21.31 | 70.28 | 3.5706 |
| Aug 24 | 23.98 | 24.72 | 20.66 | 21.58 | 72.99 | 3.5911 |
| Seo 24 | 24.48 | 25.00 | 23.34 | 22.29 | 71.39 | 3.6044 |
| Oct 24 | 24.62 | 26.57 | 22.85 | 20.90 | 73.19 | 3.3346 |
| Nov 24 | 24.72 | 25.93 | 19.95 | 21.12 | 70.89 | 3.0706 |
| Dec 24 | 23.43 | 24.83 | 18.62 | 20.74 | 68.89 | 3.0003 |
What is the Market Offering for Milk to be Sold in April?
Ex: It is Jan. 31 and Apr. Class III milk futures are trading at $19.78. Local Apr. basis estimate is +$3.00.
| If April futures | = | 21.25 | 19.75 | 18.25 | |||
| and actual blend price | = | 24.25 | 22.75 | 21.25 | |||
| Sample Strategies | Realized Prices for April Milk | ||||||
| 1) Sold Futures | @ | 19.78 | 22.78 | 22.78 | 22.78 | ||
| 2) Bought Put | 18.75 | @ | 0.46 | 23.79 | 22.29 | 21.29 | |
| 3) Bought Put | 19.25 | @ | 0.64 | 23.61 | 22.11 | 21.61 | |
| 4) Bought Put | 19.75 | @ | 0.86 | 23.39 | 21.89 | 21.89 | |
| 5) Synthetic Put | |||||||
| Sold Futures | @ | 19.78 | |||||
| Bought Call | 20.75 | @ | 0.47 | 22.81 | 22.31 | 22.31 | |