by Andrew P. Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
March 31, 2025
Milk Production
Milk production in the 24 major states during February totaled 17.0 billion pounds, down 2.6 percent from February 2024. Production per cow for February averaged 1,885 pounds. The number of milk cows was 8.96 million head, 13,000 more than January 2025. January production was up 0.4 percent from preliminary estimates. For milk production in the top 5 producing states, California decreased 7.1% from February a year ago; Wisconsin down 3.6%; Texas up 2.4%; Idaho up 4.7%; and New York down 2.0%. Other states with large production increases were South Dakota (2.4%) and Georgia (1.9%). States with large production decreases were Illinois (-6.4%) and Washington (-6.2%).
Milk Price and Utilization
The Southeast Uniform milk price for February was $23.90, up $0.11 from January and $2.39 higher than February 2024. The Appalachian Uniform milk price was $23.55 up $0.29 from January and $2.55 higher than February 2024. February’s Class III price was $20.18, down $0.16 from January, and $4.10 higher than February a year ago. The Class IV price was down $0.83 at $19.90, and $0.05 higher than February 2024. The Class I Mover price for April is $19.57, down $1.45 from March. The milk/feed ratio for February was 2.68, down 0.14 from January.
Southeast Class I utilization was 69.65%, down 10.08% from January and 8.93% higher than February a year ago. The Uniform butterfat price was $2.8846, down 7.11 cents from last month and 19.03 cents lower than February 2024. The February Class I price was $25.07. March Class I price is $24.82.
Appalachian Class I utilization was 72.89%, down 3.26% from January, and 1.02% higher than February a year ago. The Uniform butterfat price was $2.8855, down 7.02 cents from last month and 19.38 cents lower than February 2024. The February Class I price was $24.67.
Cheese Production and Stocks
Total cheese production in January was 1.21 billion pounds, up 0.8% from a year ago while butter production was up 0.5% to 218 million pounds. Nonfat dry milk (NDM) production was up 11.0% compared to a year ago with total production at 154 million pounds while skim milk powder (SMP) production was down 37.6% to 35.5 million pounds compared to a year ago. Total cheese stocks at the end of February were down 5% from February a year ago and up 2% from the previous month while butter stocks were up 17% from last month and up 3% from a year ago.
Cow Slaughter
Dairy cow slaughter in February was 217,000 head, down 30,800 head from January and 35,700 head less than February 2024.
Southeast Federal Order Prices
| Month | Uniform Price $/cwt. | Class I Price $/cwt. | Class III Price $/cwt. | Class IV Price $/cwt. | Class I % Utilization | Butterfat Price $/lb. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | 25.01 | 25.40 | 23.34 | 22.29 | 79.22 | 3.6019 |
| Oct 24 | 25.37 | 26.97 | 22.85 | 20.90 | 81.31 | 3.374 |
| Nov 24 | 25.46 | 26.33 | 19.95 | 21.12 | 79.11 | 3.0707 |
| Dec 24 | 24.18 | 25.23 | 18.62 | 20.74 | 77.59 | 3.0125 |
| Jan 25 | 23.79 | 24.18 | 20.34 | 20.73 | 79.73 | 2.9557 |
| Feb 25 | 23.90 | 25.07 | 20.18 | 19.90 | 69.65 | 2.8846 |
Appalachian Federal Order Prices
| Month | Uniform Price $/cwt. | Class I Price $/cwt. | Class III Price $/cwt. | Class IV Price $/cwt. | Class I % Utilization | Butterfat Price $/lb. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seo 24 | 24.48 | 25.00 | 23.34 | 22.29 | 71.39 | 3.6044 |
| Oct 24 | 24.62 | 26.57 | 22.85 | 20.90 | 73.19 | 3.3346 |
| Nov 24 | 24.72 | 25.93 | 19.95 | 21.12 | 70.89 | 3.0706 |
| Dec 24 | 23.43 | 24.83 | 18.62 | 20.74 | 68.89 | 3.0003 |
| Jan 25 | 23.26 | 23.78 | 20.34 | 20.73 | 76.15 | 2.9557 |
| Feb 25 | 23.55 | 24.67 | 20.18 | 19.90 | 72.89 | 2.8855 |
What is the Market Offering for Milk to be Sold in June?
Ex: It is Mar. 31 and June Class III milk futures are trading at $18.25. Local June basis estimate is +$3.00.
| If June futures | = | 18.75 | 17.25 | 15.75 | |||
| and actual blend price | = | 21.75 | 20.25 | 18.75 | |||
| Sample Strategies | Realized Prices for June Milk | ||||||
| 1) Sold Futures | @ | 17.25 | 20.25 | 20.25 | 20.25 | ||
| 2) Bought Put | 16.25 | @ | 0.25 | 21.50 | 20.00 | 19.00 | |
| 3) Bought Put | 16.75 | @ | 0.43 | 21.32 | 19.82 | 19.32 | |
| 4) Bought Put | 17.25 | @ | 0.66 | 21.09 | 19.59 | 19.59 | |
| 5) Synthetic Put | |||||||
| Sold Futures | @ | 17.25 | |||||
| Bought Call | 18.25 | @ | 0.42 | 20.33 | 19.83 | 19.83 | |