Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook
The following is a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based on 2018 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2023 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2023 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.
The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith.
November 9, 2023 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates
Corn
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
December 2023 corn futures closed down 8 cents at $4.68 with a trading range for the day of $4.66 ½ to $4.76. March 2024 corn futures closed down 7 ¼ cents at $4.82 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $4.81 ¼ to $4.90 ¼. National average yield is projected up 1.9 bu/acre at 174.9 bu/acre (Tennessee average yield was increased 4 bu/acre to an all-time record of 177 bu/acre). Month over month increases in foreign and domestic ending stocks were bearish for prices. Export sales increased 50 million bushels despite current export sales and commitments being well behind the five-year average.
USDA Summary
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 170 million from last month on a 1.9-bushel increase in yield to 174.9 bushels per acre. With larger supplies, feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels to 5.7 billion and corn used for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5.3 billion. Exports are raised 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 45 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.85 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast up. This month’s 2023/24 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for Ukraine, Russia, Burma, and Paraguay are partly offset by declines for Mexico, Egypt, and Indonesia. Corn production for Ukraine and Russia is raised based on harvest results to date. Mexico production is lowered reflecting a reported decline in summer corn area. Foreign barley production is raised as higher production for Russia, Ukraine, and India are partly offset by reductions for Argentina, the EU, and Turkey.
Major global trade changes include larger corn exports for the United States, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Paraguay. Corn imports are raised for Canada, Egypt, Mexico, the EU, and Saudi Arabia but lowered for Iran and Bangladesh. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Ukraine, Paraguay, and China that are partly offset by a decline for Iran. Global corn ending stocks, at 12.401 billion bushels, are up 102 million.
| 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 Est. | 2023/24 Projected October | 2023/24 Projected November | 2023/24 Change from Previous Month | Change 2023/24-2022/23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 89.7 | 90.7 | 93.3 | 88.6 | 94.9 | 94.9 | 0.0 | 6.3 |
| Harvested (Million) | 81.3 | 82.3 | 85.3 | 79.1 | 87.1 | 87.1 | 0.0 | 8.0 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 167.5 | 171.4 | 176.7 | 173.4 | 173 | 174.9 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 2,221 | 1,919 | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,361 | 1,361 | 0 | -16 |
| Production | 13,620 | 14,111 | 15,074 | 13,715 | 15,064 | 15,234 | 170 | 1,519 |
| Imports | 42 | 24 | 24 | 39 | 25 | 25 | 0 | -14 |
| Total Supply | 15,883 | 16,055 | 16,333 | 15,130 | 16,451 | 16,621 | 170 | 1,491 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Feed and Residual | 5,900 | 5,607 | 5,726 | 5,549 | 5,600 | 5,650 | 50 | 101 |
| Ethanol | 4,857 | 5,028 | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,300 | 5,325 | 25 | 149 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 1,429 | 1,439 | 1,437 | 1,382 | 1,415 | 1,415 | 0 | 33 |
| Exports | 1,777 | 2,747 | 2,472 | 1,661 | 2,025 | 2,075 | 50 | 414 |
| Total Use | 13,963 | 14,821 | 14,956 | 13,769 | 14,340 | 14,465 | 125 | 696 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 1,919 | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,361 | 2,111 | 2,156 | 45 | 795 |
| Foreign Stocks | 10,142 | 10,294 | 10,841 | 10,418 | 10,188 | 10,245 | 57 | -173 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $3.56 | $4.53 | $6.00 | $6.54 | $4.95 | $4.85 | -$0.10 | -$1.69 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 13.74% | 8.33% | 9.21% | 9.88% | 14.72% | 14.90% | 0.18% | 5.02% |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2023/24 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 11,780 | 48,060 | 7,475 | 29,911 | 47,440 | 7,859 | 12,401 |
| United States | 1,361 | 15,234 | 25 | 5,650 | 12,390 | 2,075 | 2,155 |
| Total Foreign | 10,418 | 32,826 | 7,450 | 24,261 | 35,050 | 5,784 | 10,245 |
| Argentina | 44 | 2,165 | 0 | 386 | 555 | 1,614 | 40 |
| Brazil | 404 | 5,078 | 47 | 2,500 | 3,051 | 2,165 | 314 |
| Russia | 36 | 630 | 2 | 386 | 429 | 209 | 30 |
| South Africa | 89 | 661 | 0 | 287 | 535 | 134 | 81 |
| Ukraine | 95 | 1,161 | 1 | 177 | 217 | 787 | 253 |
| Egypt | 59 | 276 | 335 | 516 | 614 | 0 | 55 |
| E.U. | 283 | 2,354 | 965 | 2,327 | 3,149 | 161 | 291 |
| Japan | 51 | 0 | 610 | 472 | 610 | 0 | 52 |
| Mexico | 163 | 1,043 | 740 | 1,098 | 1,823 | 12 | 112 |
| Southeast Asia | 122 | 1,215 | 707 | 1,571 | 1,898 | 24 | 122 |
| South Korea | 75 | 4 | 465 | 374 | 467 | 0 | 76 |
| Canada | 64 | 602 | 126 | 421 | 638 | 71 | 84 |
| China | 8,111 | 10,905 | 905 | 8,779 | 11,968 | 1 | 7,953 |
| ROW | 823 | 6,730 | 2,547 | 4,967 | 9,096 | 605 | 783 |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels): Current-Previous Month 2023/24
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 43 | 249 | 116 | 138 | 190 | 133 | 102 |
| United States | – | 170 | – | 50 | 75 | 50 | 44 |
| Total Foreign | 43 | 79 | 117 | 88 | 115 | 83 | 57 |
| Argentina | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | -4 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 |
| Russia | – | 55 | – | 12 | 12 | 43 | – |
| South Africa | 16 | 0 | – | – | 12 | – | 4 |
| Ukraine | – | 59 | – | – | – | 20 | 39 |
| Egypt | – | -24 | 39 | 16 | 16 | – | – |
| E.U. | – | 4 | 20 | 20 | 20 | – | 4 |
| Japan | -3 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 |
| Mexico | 27 | -35 | 31 | 24 | 24 | – | -1 |
| Southeast Asia | 2 | -8 | – | -8 | -8 | – | 2 |
| South Korea | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Canada | – | – | 39 | 39 | 39 | – | – |
| China | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | 9 |
| ROW | -4 | 28 | -14 | -14 | 1 | 20 | 7 |
Cotton
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
December 2023 cotton futures closed up 1.63 cents at 76.52 with a trading range for the day of 74.90 to 77.29 cents. March 2024 cotton futures closed up 1.51 cents at 79.21 cents with a trading range for the day of 77.7 to 79.21 cents. Cotton prices have declined dramatically since the end of October, moving from the mid-80 cent range to mid-70 cent range. Weak demand remains the main source of lower prices. US stocks increased but remain tight.
USDA Summary
The 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet shows slightly lower consumption but higher production and ending stocks this month. Production is 273,000 bales higher, at 13.1 million bales, as lower production in Texas is more than offset elsewhere. Domestic mill use is 100,000 bales lower, reflecting the pace of recent consumption, and exports are unchanged, leaving ending stocks 400,000 bales higher at 3.2 million bales or 22.5 percent of use. The 2023/24 season-average price for upland cotton is reduced 3 cents this month to 77 cents per pound.
This month’s 2023/24 global cotton balance sheet includes lower consumption, but higher production and stocks. Beginning stocks are 200,000 bales higher largely due to a 300,000-bale increase in India’s 2022/23 production based on data from their Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption. The global production forecast for 2023/24 is 850,000 bales higher this month as larger expected crops in Afghanistan, the United States, Argentina, and Paraguay offset reductions in Spain and Mexico. Global consumption is 500,000 bales lower, with cuts for Vietnam, Turkey, and the United States. World trade is little changed from the previous month despite a 500,000-bale increase in China’s projected imports, as declines for Vietnam, Turkey, Korea, and Thailand are largely offsetting. At 81.5 million bales, 2023/24 global cotton ending stocks are projected 1.6 million bales higher than in October. China accounts for nearly one-third of this increase as higher imports are largely expected to be for the State Reserve.
| 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 Est. | 2023/24 Projected October | 2023/24 Projected November | 2022/23 Change from Previous Month | Change 2023/24-2022/23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | |||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 14.1 | 13.74 | 12.09 | 11.22 | 13.76 | 10.23 | 10.23 | 0 | -3.53 |
| Harvested (Million) | 9.99 | 11.5 | 8.22 | 10.27 | 7.31 | 8.02 | 8.02 | 0 | 0.71 |
| U.S. Average Yield (lb/acre) | 882 | 831 | 853 | 819 | 950 | 767 | 783 | 16 | -167 |
| Supply (Million 480 Pound Bales) | |||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 4.2 | 4.85 | 7.25 | 3.15 | 4.05 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Production | 18.37 | 19.91 | 14.61 | 17.52 | 14.47 | 12.82 | 13.09 | 0.27 | -1.38 |
| Imports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.01 |
| Total Supply | 22.57 | 24.77 | 21.86 | 20.68 | 18.52 | 17.07 | 17.35 | 0.28 | -1.17 |
| Use and Stocks (Million 480 Pound Bales) | |||||||||
| Domestic | 2.98 | 2.15 | 2.4 | 2.55 | 2.05 | 2.15 | 2.05 | -0.1 | 0 |
| Exports | 14.84 | 15.51 | 16.35 | 14.48 | 12.77 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 0 | -0.57 |
| Total Use | 17.81 | 17.66 | 18.75 | 17.03 | 14.82 | 14.35 | 14.25 | -0.1 | -0.57 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 4.85 | 7.25 | 3.15 | 4.05 | 4.25 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 0.4 | -1.05 |
| Foreign Stocks | 75.1 | 89.8 | 83.15 | 72.34 | 78.79 | 77.12 | 78.3 | 1.18 | -0.49 |
| Chinese Stocks | 35.67 | 36.9 | 37.79 | 38.06 | 37.4 | 36.8 | 37.3 | 0.5 | -0.1 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | |||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/lb) | $0.703 | $0.596 | $0.663 | $0.914 | $0.848 | $0.80 | $0.77 | -$0.03 | -$0.08 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 27% | 41% | 16.8% | 24% | 29% | 20% | 22% | 2.94% | -6.22% |
| Chinese Stocks/Use | 90% | 112% | 92.2% | 113% | 100% | 98% | 99% | 1.33% | -0.27% |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) 2023/24 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 83.04 | 113.46 | 43.3 | 115.3 | 43.31 | -0.31 | 81.5 |
| United States | 4.25 | 13.09 | 0.01 | 2.05 | 12.2 | -0.11 | 3.2 |
| Total Foreign | 78.79 | 100.37 | 43.3 | 113.25 | 31.11 | -0.2 | 78.3 |
| Central Asia | 3.12 | 5.19 | 0.1 | 4.19 | 1.38 | 0 | 2.85 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | 1.17 | 4.92 | 0 | 0.1 | 4.61 | 0 | 1.38 |
| Australia | 4.77 | 5.1 | 0 | 0.01 | 5.7 | -0.2 | 4.36 |
| Brazil | 5.76 | 14.56 | 0.02 | 3.3 | 11.8 | 0 | 5.24 |
| India | 11.82 | 25 | 1.3 | 24 | 1.8 | 0 | 12.32 |
| Mexico | 0.43 | 1.05 | 0.85 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.33 |
| China | 37.4 | 27 | 10.5 | 37.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 37.3 |
| E.U. | 0.39 | 1.05 | 0.59 | 0.61 | 1.15 | 0 | 0.27 |
| Turkey | 2.63 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 0.65 | 0 | 1.88 |
| Pakistan | 1.53 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 10 | 0.08 | 0 | 2.15 |
| Indonesia | 0.36 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.46 |
| Thailand | 0.14 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 |
| Bangladesh | 1.93 | 0.16 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 0 | 0 | 2.09 |
| Vietnam | 1.05 | 0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 1.05 |
| ROW | 6.29 | 6.34 | 4.05 | 6.66 | 3.53 | 0.00 | 6.48 |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales): 2023/24 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 0.2 | 0.86 | 0.07 | -0.49 | 0.07 | -0.03 | 1.58 |
| United States | – | 0.27 | – | -0.1 | – | -0.03 | 0.4 |
| Total Foreign | 0.2 | 0.58 | 0.08 | -0.39 | 0.07 | – | 1.18 |
| Central Asia | 0.01 | – | – | – | – | – | 0.02 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | 0.01 | – | – | – | -0.12 | – | 0.13 |
| Australia | -0.01 | – | – | – | – | – | -0.01 |
| Brazil | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| India | 0.1 | – | – | – | -0.2 | – | 0.3 |
| Mexico | – | -0.05 | – | -0.05 | – | – | – |
| China | – | – | 0.5 | – | – | – | 0.5 |
| E.U. | – | -0.08 | – | – | -0.05 | – | -0.02 |
| Turkey | – | – | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | – | -0.15 |
| Pakistan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Indonesia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Thailand | – | – | -0.05 | -0.05 | – | – | – |
| Bangladesh | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Vietnam | – | – | -0.2 | -0.2 | – | – | – |
| ROW | 0.09 | 0.72 | -0.08 | 0.01 | 0.29 | – | 0.41 |
Soybeans
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
January 2024 soybean futures were down 22 ¼ cents for the day closing at $13.43 ½ with a trading range for the day of $13.36 to $13.73. November 2024 soybean futures closed down 10 ½ cents at $12.82 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $12.74 ¾ to $13.01. A small revision to production was the major change on the domestic balance sheet. No changes to Brazil or Argentina production estimates. Weather in South America will be the dominant market driver moving through the end of 2023.
USDA Summary
The U.S. soybean outlook for 2023/24 includes increased production and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.13 billion bushels, up 25 million on higher yields. The largest production changes are for Wisconsin, Tennessee, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Ohio. With crush and exports unchanged, soybean ending stocks are raised to 245 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean oil price is reduced 2.0 cents to 61.0 cents per pound. The soybean meal price is unchanged at $380.00 per short ton.
The global 2023/24 soybean supply and demand forecast includes lower beginning stocks, higher production, higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are reduced 59 million bushels, reflecting offsetting back-year balance sheet revisions for China and Brazil. China’s beginning stocks are reduced on lower soybean imports for 2021/22 and 2022/23 and higher crush for 2022/23. Conversely, Brazil’s beginning stocks are increased on a larger 2022/23 crop of 5.806 billion bushels due to higher-than-expected use to date.
Global 2023/24 soybean production is raised 33 million bushels to 14.712 billion, mainly on higher production for Russia, Ukraine, and the United States. Global soybean crush is raised on higher crush for China and Russia. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 40 million bushels as higher stocks for Brazil and the United States are more than offset by lower stocks for China.
| 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 Est. | 2023/24 Projected October | 2023/24 Projected November | 2023/24 Change from Previous Month | Change 2023/24-2022/23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 76.1 | 83.4 | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 83.6 | 0.0 | -3.9 |
| Harvested (Million) | 74.9 | 82.6 | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.8 | 82.8 | 0.0 | -3.4 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 47.4 | 51.0 | 51.7 | 49.6 | 49.6 | 49.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 909 | 525 | 257 | 274 | 268 | 268 | 0 | -6 |
| Production | 3,552 | 4,216 | 4,465 | 4,270 | 4,104 | 4,129 | 25 | -141 |
| Imports | 15 | 20 | 16 | 25 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 5 |
| Total Supply | 4,476 | 4,761 | 4,738 | 4,569 | 4,403 | 4,428 | 25 | -141 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Crushing | 2,165 | 2,141 | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,300 | 2,300 | 0 | 88 |
| Exports | 1,679 | 2,266 | 2,152 | 1,992 | 1,755 | 1,755 | 0 | -237 |
| Seed and Residual | 108 | 97 | 108 | 97 | 128 | 127 | -1 | 30 |
| Total Use | 3,952 | 4,504 | 4,464 | 4,301 | 4,183 | 4,182 | -1 | -119 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 525 | 257 | 274 | 268 | 220 | 245 | 25 | -23 |
| Foreign Stocks | 3,034 | 3,430 | 3,329 | 3,418 | 4,029 | 3,962 | -67 | 544 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Average Season Price ($/Bu) | $8.57 | $10.80 | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.90 | $12.90 | $0.00 | -$1.30 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 13.28% | 5.71% | 6.14% | 6.23% | 5.26% | 5.86% | 0.60% | 0% |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2023/2024 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 3,686 | 14,713 | 6,090 | 12,106 | 14,098 | 6,184 | 4,208 |
| United States | 268 | 4,130 | 30 | 2,300 | 2,427 | 1,755 | 245 |
| Total Foreign | 3,418 | 10,584 | 6,060 | 9,806 | 11,671 | 4,429 | 3,962 |
| Argentina | 632 | 1,764 | 209 | 1,268 | 1,534 | 169 | 902 |
| Brazil | 1,229 | 5,989 | 17 | 2,048 | 2,194 | 3,583 | 1,458 |
| Paraguay | 10 | 367 | 1 | 129 | 134 | 220 | 23 |
| China | 1,242 | 753 | 3,674 | 3,601 | 4,428 | 4 | 1,238 |
| E.U. | 53 | 113 | 507 | 551 | 610 | 11 | 51 |
| S.E. Asia | 27 | 17 | 365 | 185 | 373 | 1 | 36 |
| Mexico | 8 | 6 | 235 | 239 | 241 | 0 | 8 |
| ROW | 218 | 1,574 | 1,052 | 1,785 | 2,157 | 441 | 245 |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2023/2024 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -58 | 34 | – | 36 | 15 | 2 | -41 |
| United States | – | 25 | – | – | -1 | – | 26 |
| Total Foreign | -58 | 9 | – | 36 | 15 | 2 | -67 |
| Argentina | -11 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 |
| Brazil | 73 | – | – | – | – | – | 73 |
| Paraguay | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| China | -111 | – | – | 37 | 18 | – | -129 |
| E.U. | – | 1 | – | – | – | – | – |
| S.E. Asia | -4 | – | – | -4 | -4 | – | – |
| Mexico | -4 | -3 | – | – | – | – | -7 |
| ROW | -2 | 11 | – | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
Wheat
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
December 2023 wheat futures closed down 11 ½ cents at $5.80 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $5.73 to $5.92 ½. July 2024 wheat futures closed down 11 ½ cents for the day at $6.36 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $6.30 ¼ to $6.45. Russia estimated production was increased and India’s production was decreased compared to last month. Domestically a small revision was made to US wheat imports.
USDA Summary
The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, decreased domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased imports, up 10 million bushels to 145 million, on a strong pace to date and expectations for the rest of the marketing year. Total domestic use is projected 4 million bushels lower to 1,155 million, all on a reduction in food use following the release of the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report. July-September wheat used in milling is the smallest for this quarter since at least 2014 when NASS began reporting this series. With no other changes to the U.S. balance sheet, projected ending stocks are raised 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20 on lower expected prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for increased supplies, fractionally lower consumption, less trade, and larger ending stocks. Supplies are projected up 22 million bushels to 38.636 billion as increased beginning stocks more than offset a decline in global production. World production is lowered 55 million bushels to 28.734 billion on decreases to many countries including India, Argentina, Kazakhstan, the United Kingdom, and Brazil. The decrease for production in India is based on revised government estimates. In Argentina, production is forecast 55 million bushels lower to 551 million as rains in October were too late to benefit the crop in Cordoba and Santa Fe. These production declines are partially offset by a 184-million-bushel increase in the forecast for Russia, up to 3.307 billion, based on near-final harvest data from the Ministry of Agriculture that indicates more harvested area and higher yields. The global forecast for trade is lowered 48 million bushels to 7.532 billion, primarily on lower exports from Argentina, India, and Egypt that are only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. Projected global ending stocks are raised 22 million bushels to 9.506 billion, with larger forecasts for Russia, China, and Argentina more than offsetting declines for India, Ukraine, and Brazil.
| 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 Est. | 2023/24 Projected October | 2023/24 Projected November | 2023/24 Change from Previous Month | Change 2023/24-2022/23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 45.5 | 44.5 | 46.7 | 45.7 | 49.6 | 49.6 | 0 | 3.9 |
| Harvested (Million) | 37.4 | 36.8 | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.3 | 37.3 | 0 | 1.8 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 51.7 | 49.7 | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.6 | 48.6 | 0 | 2.1 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,080 | 1,028 | 845 | 698 | 582 | 582 | 0 | -116 |
| Production | 1,932 | 1,828 | 1,646 | 1,650 | 1,812 | 1,812 | 0 | 162 |
| Imports | 104 | 100 | 96 | 122 | 135 | 145 | 10 | 23 |
| Total Supply | 3,116 | 2,956 | 2,588 | 2,470 | 2,529 | 2,539 | 10 | 69 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Food | 962 | 961 | 971 | 973 | 974 | 970 | -4 | -3 |
| Seed | 62 | 64 | 58 | 68 | 65 | 65 | 0 | -3 |
| Feed | 95 | 93 | 64 | 89 | 120 | 120 | 0 | 31 |
| Exports | 969 | 994 | 796 | 759 | 700 | 700 | 0 | -59 |
| Total Use | 2,087 | 2,111 | 1,889 | 1,888 | 1,859 | 1,855 | -4 | -33 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 1,028 | 845 | 698 | 582 | 670 | 684 | 14 | 102 |
| Foreign Stocks | 9,879 | 9,676 | 9,311 | 9,323 | 8,815 | 8,821 | 6 | -502 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $4.58 | $5.05 | $7.63 | $8.83 | $7.30 | $7.20 | -$0.10 | -$1.63 |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2023-24 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 9,904 | 28,733 | 7,521 | 5,798 | 29,132 | 7,533 | 9,505 |
| United States | 582 | 1,812 | 145 | 120 | 1,155 | 700 | 683 |
| Total Foreign | 9,323 | 26,921 | 7,377 | 5,678 | 27,977 | 6,833 | 8,821 |
| Argentina | 144 | 551 | 0 | 2 | 241 | 367 | 87 |
| Australia | 129 | 900 | 7 | 147 | 276 | 643 | 118 |
| Canada | 134 | 1,139 | 22 | 129 | 320 | 845 | 131 |
| European Union | 607 | 4,935 | 276 | 1,617 | 3,987 | 1,378 | 453 |
| Russia | 538 | 3,307 | 11 | 735 | 1,580 | 1,837 | 439 |
| Ukraine | 48 | 827 | 3 | 154 | 323 | 441 | 113 |
| Bangladesh | 30 | 40 | 213 | 9 | 248 | 0 | 36 |
| Brazil | 67 | 345 | 206 | 29 | 452 | 110 | 56 |
| China | 5,101 | 5,034 | 441 | 1,360 | 5,622 | 33 | 4,921 |
| Japan | 42 | 41 | 202 | 24 | 230 | 11 | 44 |
| N. Africa | 446 | 615 | 1,124 | 64 | 1,738 | 26 | 421 |
| Nigeria | 13 | 4 | 176 | 0 | 169 | 13 | 12 |
| Sel. Mideast | 413 | 704 | 827 | 122 | 1,469 | 23 | 453 |
| Southeast Asia | 135 | 0 | 893 | 248 | 867 | 41 | 120 |
| India | 349 | 4,062 | 4 | 202 | 3,992 | 18 | 404 |
| Kazakhstan | 120 | 441 | 73 | 37 | 219 | 367 | 49 |
| United Kingdom | 92 | 525 | 73 | 254 | 551 | 70 | 70 |
| ROW | 913 | 3,449 | 2,824 | 546 | 5,695 | 608 | 895 |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2023/2024 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 73 | -53 | 3 | 51 | -1 | -46 | 21 |
| United States | – | – | 10 | – | -4 | – | 14 |
| Total Foreign | 73 | -53 | -7 | 51 | 3 | -46 | 7 |
| Argentina | 18 | -55 | – | – | – | -55 | 18 |
| Australia | 25 | – | – | 11 | 11 | – | 14 |
| Canada | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| European Union | – | 11 | – | – | – | – | 11 |
| Russia | – | 184 | – | 73 | 73 | – | 110 |
| Ukraine | – | – | – | – | – | 37 | -37 |
| Bangladesh | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | -11 | -15 | – | – | – | – | -26 |
| China | – | – | 37 | – | – | – | 37 |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| N. Africa | 9 | – | -18 | – | – | -7 | -2 |
| Nigeria | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sel. Mideast | – | – | -7 | 1 | -4 | – | -3 |
| Southeast Asia | – | – | -11 | -7 | -7 | -1 | -3 |
| India | – | -108 | – | – | 20 | -18 | -110 |
| Kazakhstan | 6 | -37 | – | -18 | -24 | – | -7 |
| United Kingdom | – | -17 | – | -7 | -7 | – | -9 |
| ROW | 27 | -16 | -8 | -1 | -58 | -1 | 13 |
Profitability Update
2023 Estimated Returns – Non-Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of the November 9, 2023, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, non-irrigated yields are November Crop Production report yields for Tennessee. Prices used for grain and cotton sales are based on current Tennessee harvest cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2023 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Land cost was estimated as a cash rent at the USDA NASS state average of $113 per acre. Substantial variation in land costs exist in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2023 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses returns over specified costs for corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing a -$44, -$24, $140, and $15 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. Producers that priced production at higher market prices earlier in 2023 may have higher net returns as prices have declined since the start of the year. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will also vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield – Crop Production Report (Tennessee) | 1,181 | 54 | 177 | 80 /50 |
| Harvest Price (as of 11/9/2023) | $0.74 | $13.38 | $4.57 | $5.39/$13.38 |
| Revenue | $874 | $723 | $809 | $1,033 |
| Variable Expenses | $590 | $340 | $595 | $660 |
| Returns Over Variable | $284 | $383 | $214 | $373 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $113 | $113 | $113 | $113 |
| Returns Over Variable and Land Costs | $171 | $270 | $101 | $260 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $195 | $130 | $145 | $245 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($24) | $140 | ($44) | $15 |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.76 | $10.80 | $4.82 | $6.36/$10.18 |
2023 Estimated Returns – Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of the November 9, 2023, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, irrigated yields were estimated as: 240 bushels per acre for corn, 65 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, and 1,450 pounds per acre cotton. Prices used for grain and cotton sales are based on current Tennessee cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2023 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Irrigation fixed costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and irrigation systems. Land cost was estimated as cash rent of $197/acre (USDA NASS state average for Tennessee). Substantial variation in land costs exist in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2023 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing returns of -$184, -$130, $23, and -$67 per acre net returns. Producers that priced production at higher market prices earlier in 2023 may have higher net returns as prices have declined since the start of the year. Additionally, producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Yield (lb or bu) | 1,450 | 65 | 240 | 95/60 |
| Harvest Price (as of 11/9/2023) | $0.74 | $13.38 | $4.57 | $5.39/$13.38 |
| Revenue | $1,073 | $870 | $1,097 | $1,315 |
| Variable Expenses (includes energy cost) | $760 | $410 | $780 | $840 |
| Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre | $100 | $100 | $100 | $100 |
| Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR Costs | $213 | $360 | $217 | $375 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $197 | $197 | $197 | $197 |
| Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed Cost and Land Costs | $16 | $163 | $20 | $178 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $200 | $140 | $150 | $245 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($184) | $23 | ($130) | ($67) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.87 | $13.03 | $5.11 | $7.68/$12.56 |