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Monthly Crop Comments

Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook

The following is a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based on 2018 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2019 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2019 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.

The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith.


September 10, 2021 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

Corn

Market Reaction and Price Outlook

December 2021 wheat futures closed up 7 ½ cents at $5.17 ½ with a trading range for the day of $4.97 ½ to $5.24. March 2022 corn futures closed up 7 ¼ cents at $5.26 ½ with a trading range for the day of $5.06 ¾ to $5.32 ¼. As expected, US production was revised up due to increased acres and greater yield. Stocks-to-use is now estimated at 9.51% and marketing year average price at $5.45.

USDA Summary

This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, increased feed and residual use, greater exports, and higher ending stocks.  Projected beginning stocks for 2021/22 are 70 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2020/21, with reductions in corn used for ethanol and exports.  Corn production for 2021/22 is forecast at 15.0 billion bushels, up 246 million from last month on increases to harvested area and yield.  The national average yield is forecast at 176.3 bushels per acre, up 1.7 bushels, while harvested area for grain is forecast at 85.1 million acres, up 0.6 million.  Total U.S. corn use for 2021/22 is up 150 million bushels to 14.8 billion.  Feed and residual use is raised 75 million bushels based mostly on a larger crop and lower expected prices.  Exports for 2021/22 are up 75 million bushels to 2.5 billion.  With supply rising more than use, ending stocks are increased 166 million bushels to 1.4 billion.  The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 30 cents to $5.45 per bushel. 

This month’s 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, greater trade, and increased stocks relative to last month.  Foreign corn production is forecast higher relative to last month with increases for China and Argentina more than offsetting reductions for Russia and Serbia.  China corn production is raised with a boost in yield prospects, based mostly on near to above normal rainfall in the key Northeast provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning.  Argentina corn production is raised based on expectations of higher area.  Foreign barley production is virtually unchanged, as increases for Australia, Ukraine, and the EU are essentially offset by declines for Canada and Russia.

For China, corn feed and residual use for 2020/21 is lowered based on indicated soybean meal equivalent protein consumption and expanded use of alternative energy feedstuffs such as barley and sorghum.  For 2021/22, feed and residual use is raised based mostly on a larger crop and lower expected internal market prices.  Food, seed and industrial use is lowered for 2020/21 and 2021/22 based on a reduction in the expected amount of corn used for ethanol and corn product exports.  Despite a forecast increase in corn production, imports are unchanged for 2021/22 as the gap between China’s domestic and international corn prices is expected to persist, particularly in the feed deficit South. Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2021/22 include larger corn exports for Argentina, with partly offsetting reductions for Serbia and Russia.  Corn imports are raised for Canada and Mexico but are reduced for Vietnam.  For 2020/21, for the local marketing year beginning March 2021 corn exports are lowered for Brazil but raised for Argentina.  Foreign corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 346 million bushels to 14.247 billion, mostly reflecting an increase for China.

2017/182018/192019/202020/21 Est2021/22 Projected August2021/22 Projected September2021/22 Change from Previous MonthChange 2021/22 to 20/21
 Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield
Planted (Million)90.288.989.790.892.793.30.62.5
Harvested (Million)82.781.381.382.584.585.10.62.6
U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre)176.6176.4167.5172.0174.6176.31.74.3
 Supply (Million Bushels)
Beg. Stocks2,2932,1402,2211,9191,1171,18770-732
Production14,60914,34013,62014,18214,75014,996246814
Imports36284225252500
Total Supply16,93916,50915,88316,12715,89216,20831681
 Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels)
Feed and Residual5,3045,4295,9005,7255,6255,70075-25
Ethanol5,6055,3784,8575,0355,2005,2000165
Food, Seed & Industrial1,4521,4151,4291,4351,4251,4250-10
Exports2,4382,0661,7772,7452,4002,47575-270
Total Use14,79814,28813,96314,94014,65014,800150-140
U.S. Ending Stocks2,1402,2211,9191,1871,2421,408166221
Foreign Stocks11,30810,41910,1319,4199,96310,309346890
 Price and Stocks to Use Ratio
U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu)$3.36$3.61$3.56$4.45$5.75$5.45-$0.30$1.00
U.S. Stocks/Use14.46%15.54%13.74%10.27%8.48%9.51%$0.01-$0.01

Source: USDA-WASDE September 10, 2021

World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2021/22 Marketing Year – Current Month

Country / RegionBeginning StocksProductionImportsDomestic FeedDomestic TotalExports Ending Stocks
World11,27847,1547,32029,49646,7157,92411,717
United States1,18714,996255,70012,3252,4751,408
Total Foreign10,09132,1577,29523,79634,3905,44910,309
        Argentina832,08704135711,496104
        Brazil1864,645672,4412,8741,693332
        Russia33610239443718919
        South Africa1156690287524126135
        Ukraine351,53512202681,26044
        Egypt60252394555654052
        E.U.2732,5795912,2243,004150289
        Japan550614484624045
        Mexico1031,1026691,0241,74028107
        S.E. Asia1891,1727441,6301,95533117
        South Korea863453374465077
        Canada905351184176223982
        China7,96010,7471,0248,42511,57418,156
ROW8226,2202,6194,9079,080434751

Source: USDA-WASDE September 10, 2021

World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels): Current-Previous Month (2021/22)

Country / RegionBeginning StocksProductionImportsDomestic FeedDomestic TotalExports Ending Stocks
World22645953211172135512
United States70246757575166
Total Foreign156213531359860345
        Argentina879798
        Brazil
        Russia-4-39-24-28-8-8
        South Africa-8-8
        Ukraine
        Egypt
        E.U.
        Japan
        Mexico208812
        S.E. Asia-1-4-8-12
        South Korea
        Canada-1393939-1
        China158197118355
ROW3-202-678-111

Source: USDA-WASDE September 10, 2021

Cotton

Market Reaction and Price Outlook

December 2021 cotton futures closed up 0.28 cents at 93.50 cents with a trading range for the day of 92.01 to 94.11 cents. March 2022 cotton futures closed up 0.32 cents at 92.73 with a trading range for the day of 91.38 to 93.23 cents. National average cotton yield was increased 95 lbs per acre and harvested acres were decreased 440,000. Foreign stocks were decreased 1.25 million bales compared to last month. Overall strong demand and lower stocks continue to support prices.

USDA Summary

Beginning stocks are slightly lower than last month in the 2021/22 U.S. cotton estimates, but a much larger increase in production means that both exports and ending stocks are higher than estimated in August.  U.S. cotton production is forecast at 18.5 million bales, up 1.2 million bales despite a 4 percent decline in harvested area, largely due to increased projected yields in Texas.  With both world trade and U.S. supplies higher this month, U.S. exports are 500,000 bales higher and ending stocks are 700,000 bales higher.  A higher season-average farm price for upland cotton is also expected, up 4 cents per pound from last month to 84 cents.

World 2021/22 cotton ending stocks are 540,000 bales lower this month as a 1.4-million-bale world consumption increase spread over 2021/22 and the year before more than offsets a 750,000-bale increase in 2021/22 world production.  Consumption is projected higher in both years for Pakistan, Bangladesh, Brazil, and several smaller countries.  Turkey’s consumption was also increased 100,000 bales for 2021/22, and Vietnam’s lowered by the same amount due to recent problems with COVID-19.  World 2021/22 production is higher this month as increases for the United States, Australia, and Argentina offset declines in India, Greece, and several countries in West Africa’s Franc Zone.  World trade in 2021/22 is still projected down from the previous year’s record 48.5 million bales, but is projected 500,000 bales higher than in August, at 46.8 million bales.

2017/182018/192019/202020/21 Est2021/22 Projected August2021/22 Projected September2021/22 Change from Previous MonthChange 2021/22 to 20/21
 Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield
Planted (Million)12.7214.113.7412.0911.7211.19-0.53-0.9
Harvested (Million)11.19.9911.58.2810.369.92-0.441.64
U.S. Average Yield (lb/acre)9058828318478008959548
 Supply (Million Bales)
Beg. Stocks2.754.24.857.253.23.15-0.05-4.1
Production20.9218.3719.9114.6117.2618.511.253.9
Imports00000000
Total Supply23.6822.5724.7721.8620.4721.661.19-0.2
 Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bales)
Domestic3.232.982.152.352.52.500.15
Exports16.2814.8415.5116.371515.50.5-0.87
Total Use19.517.8117.6618.7217.5180.5-0.72
U.S. Ending Stocks4.24.857.253.1533.70.70.55
Foreign Stocks76.5475.190.9788.1584.2382.98-1.25-5.17
Chinese Stocks37.9935.6736.939.2634.8434.960.12-4.3
 Price and Stocks to Use Ratio
U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/lb)$0.686$0.703$0.596$0.665$0.80$0.84$0.04$0.18
U.S. Stocks/Use22%27%41%16.8%17%21%$0.03$0.04
Chinese Stocks/Use93%90%112%98.2%85%85%0.3%-12.9%

USDA-WASDE September 10, 2021

World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) 2021/22 Marketing Year – Current Month

Country / RegionBeginning StocksProductionImportsDomestic UseExportsLossEnding Stocks
World91.3119.5946.76124.1446.760.0786.68
United States3.1518.5102.515.5-0.043.7
Total Foreign88.15101.0846.76121.6431.260.1182.98
       Central Asia2.215.480.024.281.4601.96
       Afr. Fr. Zone2.175.8600.145.9101.98
       Australia1.964.700.043.603.03
       Brazil11.0512.50.033.28.2012.17
       India15.8328.5125.56013.83
       Mexico0.411.050.91.650.30.030.39
       China39.2626.7510410.05034.96
       E.U.0.131.690.60.631.6500.14
       Turkey2.713.45.28.30.602.41
       Pakistan2.5755.9110.050.032.39
       Indonesia0.4502.52.50.0100.44
       Thailand0.1100.60.5800.030.1
       Bangladesh2.90.158.28.700.012.54
       Vietnam1.0907.57.5001.1
ROW5.364.316.623.430.015.54

USDA-WASDE September 10, 2021

World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales): Current-Previous Month (2021/22)

Country / RegionBeginning StocksProductionImportsDomestic UseExportsLossEnding Stocks
World-0.480.750.510.810.51-0.55
United States-0.051.250.5-0.010.7
Total Foreign-0.43-0.50.510.810.01-1.25
       Central Asia-0.080.03-0.12
       Afr. Fr. Zone-0.3-0.16-0.13
       Australia-0.260.30.1-0.05
       Brazil-0.10.1-0.2
       India-0.05-0.5-0.55
       Mexico
       China0.120.12
       E.U.-0.01-0.10.01-0.01-0.07-0.02
       Turkey-0.010.10.1-0.21
       Pakistan-0.170.30.4-0.28
       Indonesia-0.040.05
       Thailand0.020.03-0.01
       Bangladesh0.150.20.20.15
       Vietnam-0.1-0.1
ROW0.020.10.030.060.040.010.05

USDA-WASDE September, 2021

Soybeans

Market Reaction and Price Outlook

November 2021 soybean futures closed up 16 cents at $12.86 ½ with a trading range for the day of $12.62 ¾ to $13.00. January 22 soybean futures were up 16 cents for the day closing at $12.94 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $12.71 to $13.07 ½. National soybean yield was estimated up 0.6 bu/acre at 50.6 bu/acre. Stocks were increased 30 million bushels but will remain very tight into the next marketing year.

USDA Summary

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2021/22 include higher beginning stocks, production, exports, ending stocks, and lower crush.  Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush forecast for 2020/21.  Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, up 35 million with lower harvested area more than offset by a higher yield forecast of 50.6 bushels per acre.  Harvested area is down 0.3 million from the August forecast.  Soybean crush is reduced 25 million bushels reflecting a lower forecast for domestic soybean meal disappearance.  The soybean export forecast is raised 35 million bushels on increased supplies and lower prices.  Ending stocks are projected at 185 million bushels, up 30 million from last month.  Other changes this month include lower peanut and higher cottonseed production. Soybean and soybean meal prices for 2021/22 are reduced from the previous forecasts.  The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, down 80 cents.  The soybean meal price is forecast at $360 per short ton, down 25 dollars.  The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65 cents per pound.

The 2021/22 foreign oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher beginning stocks and lower production, exports, and crush.  Foreign oilseed production is lowered mainly on lower canola production for Canada and the EU.  Partly offsetting is higher canola output for Australia and higher peanut production for India.  Lower canola supplies for Canada leads to lower exports of the oilseed and products to the EU, China, and the United States.  Lower global rapeseed supply is offset by increased soybean beginning stocks, mainly driven by higher-than-expected 2020/21 imports for China.  Higher beginning stocks for China and higher U.S. ending stocks account for most of the global 2021/22 soybean ending stocks increase, which are raised 99 million bushels to 3.634 billion.  Another notable oilseed change includes higher soybean meal imports for India as the government allows shipments of soybean meal made from genetically modified soybeans through October 31.

2017/182018/192019/202020/21 Est2021/22 Projected August2021/22 Projected September2021/22 Change from Previous MonthChange 2021/22 to 20/21
 Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield
Planted (Million)90.289.276.183.187.687.2-0.44.1
Harvested (Million)89.587.674.982.386.786.4-0.34.1
U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre)49.350.647.450.25050.60.60.4
 Supply (Million Bushels)
Beg. Stocks30243890952516017515-350
Production4,4124,4283,5524,1354,3394,37435239
Imports221415203525-105
Total Supply4,7354,8804,4764,6804,5334,57441-106
 Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels)
Crushing2,0552,0922,1652,1402,2052,180-2540
Exports2,1341,7521,6792,2602,0552,09035-170
Seed and Residual109127108105118118013
Total Use4,2973,9713,9524,5054,3794,38910-116
U.S. Ending Stocks4389095251751551853010
Foreign Stocks3,2003,2972,9993,3183,3783,44971131
 Price and Stocks to Use Ratio
U.S. Average Season Price ($/Bu)$9.33$8.48$8.57$10.90$13.70$12.90-$0.80$2.00
U.S. Stocks/Use10.19%22.89%13.28%2.62%3.54%4.22%$0.011.59%

USDA-WASDE September 10, 2021

World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2021/2022 Marketing Year – Current Month

Country / RegionBeginning StocksProductionImportsDomestic CrushDomestic TotalExports Ending Stocks
World3,49414,1256,28112,10213,9036,3633,634
United States1754,374252,1802,2992,090185
Total Foreign3,3189,7516,2569,92211,6044,2733,449
        Argentina9041,9111731,5801,850233904
        Brazil9775,291241,7531,8503,4171,025
        Paraguay17386013814923915
        China1,2056983,7113,6014,32541,286
        E.U.40104551584647840
        S.E. Asia3219362183381132
        Mexico41122823523706
ROW1401,3311,2071,8482,165371141

USDA-WASDE September 10, 2021

World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels): Current-Previous Month (2021/22)

Country / RegionBeginning StocksProductionImportsDomestic CrushDomestic TotalExports Ending Stocks
World832912-8-831101
United States1535-10-25-253530
Total Foreign67-6221717-471
        Argentina-26-26
        Brazil1818
        Paraguay
        China7373
        E.U.11
        S.E. Asia
        Mexico
ROW1-7221717-43

USDA-WASDE September 10, 2021

Wheat

Market Reaction and Price Outlook

December 2021 wheat futures closed down 3 ¾ cents at $6.88 ½ with a trading range for the day of $6.77 to $6.95 ¾.  July 2022 wheat futures closed up 5 ¼ cents at $6.89 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $6.78 ½ to $6.93 ¾. Limited revisions to he domestic balance sheet.

USDA Summary

The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stocks.  Supplies are reduced as imports are lowered 10 million bushels to 135 million on the import pace.  Food use is raised 2 million bushels to 964 million, reflecting an upward revision of 2020/21 food use.  Exports are unchanged at 875 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes.  Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are reduced 12 million bushels to 615 million and are 27 percent below last year and the lowest in eight years.  The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $6.60 on reported NASS prices to date and price expectations for the remainder of 2021/22.

The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for increased supplies, higher consumption, more trade, and higher ending stocks.  Supplies are projected rising by 261 million bushels to 39.419 billion, on the combination of larger beginning stocks for Canada, EU, and India and higher production for Australia, India, and China.  Australia’s production is raised 55 million bushels to 1.157 billion on continued widespread favorable conditions to date.  This would be Australia’s third largest wheat crop on record.  India’s production is increased 55 million bushels to 4.023 billion on the government’s 4th Advance Estimate and this would be India’s fifth consecutive record crop.  China’s production is increased 33 million bushels to 5.03 billion, mainly on a higher area estimated by the National Bureau of Statistics.  Partially offsetting these increases, Canadian production is lowered 37 million bushels to 845 million, based on the Statistics Canada forecast issued August 30, and Argentina is reduced 18 million bushels to 735 million on dry conditions.  

Projected 2021/22 world consumption is raised 110 million bushels to 29.013 billion.  Most of the higher consumption is for feed and residual use, led by China, increasing by 37 million bushels to 1.323 billion.  Projected 2021/22 global trade is raised 55 million bushels to 7.338 billion as higher exports by Australia and India more than offset reduced exports for Canada.  Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are increased 154 million bushels to 10.406 billion with India, EU, and Canada accounting for most of the increase, although global stocks remain below last year.

2017/182018/192019/202020/21 Est2021/22 Projected August2021/22 Projected September2021/22 Change from Previous MonthChange 2021/22 to 20/21
 Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield
Planted (Million)46.147.845.544.346.746.702.4
Harvested (Million)37.639.637.436.738.138.101.4
U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre)46.447.651.749.744.544.50-5.2
 Supply (Million Bushels)
Beg. Stocks1,1811,0991,0801,0288448440-184
Production1,7411,8851,9321,8261,6971,6970-129
Imports158135104100145135-1035
Total Supply3,0803,1193,1162,9542,6862,676-10-278
 Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels)
Food96495496296196296423
Seed63596061626201
Feed47889797160160063
Exports9069379699928758750-117
Total Use1,9812,0392,0872,1102,0592,0612-49
U.S. Ending Stocks1,0991,0801,028844627615-12-229
Foreign Stocks9,3259,3339,9079,9069,6279,792165-114
 Price and Stocks to Use Ratio
U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu)$4.72$5.16$4.58$5.05$6.70$6.60-$0.10$1.55
U.S. Stocks/Use55.48%52.97%49.26%39.10%30.45%29.84%-0.6%-9.3%

USDA-WASDE September 10, 2021

World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2021/22 Marketing  Year – Current Month

Country / RegionBeginning StocksProductionImportsDomestic FeedDomestic TotalExports Ending Stocks
World10,75028,6707,2405,85029,0147,33910,407
United States8441,6971351601,186875615
Total Foreign9,90626,9747,1055,69027,8286,4649,792
        Argentina11773502237496119
        Australia1611,1577173301845179
        Canada21084526103294625162
        E.U.3705,1071981,6903,9871,286403
        Russia4402,664186251,4701,286367
        Ukraine551,213412134586363
        Bangladesh794226518303082
        Brazil19283239294634830
        China5,2965,0303671,3235,475375,182
        Japan3835209232311140
        N. Africa4257921,027721,75337454
        Nigeria29221322111814
        Sel. Mideast4677537171351,46318456
        Southeast Asia199094625791743186
        India1,0214,02412573,8581291,060
        Kazakhstan54459295523126547
        U.K.54551732835772676
ROW8723,2812,7655225,711432873

USDA-WASDE September 10, 2021

World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels): Current-Previous Month (2021/22)

Country / RegionBeginning StocksProductionImportsDomestic FeedDomestic TotalExports Ending Stocks
World137124236810955153
United States-102-12
Total Foreign137124336810755165
        Argentina25-186
        Australia55773711
        Canada69-37-1851
        E.U.371551
        Russia
        Ukraine-3-3
        Bangladesh611679
        Brazil
        China-18333737-22
        Japan
        N. Africa
        Nigeria37443
        Sel. Mideast-2415-9
        Southeast Asia55
        India26562952
        Kazakhstan511797
        U.K.
ROW820-11114245

USDA-WASDE September 10, 2021

September 2021 Profitability Update

The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of the September 2021 USDA WASDE report. For the table below, non- irrigated yields were the September 10 USDA Crop Production report estimated yields for Tennessee: 172 bushels per acre for corn; 48 bushels per acre for soybeans; 1,049 pounds per acre cotton; and 74 bushels per acre for wheat. Prices used for grain and cotton sales are based on current 2021 Tennessee harvest prices provided by USDA AMS: corn – $4.61/bu; cotton $0.93/lb; soybeans – $12.30/bu; and wheat – $6.56. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, MFP, CFAP etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2021 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Land cost was estimated as a share arrangement: 25% of gross revenue. Those producers with fixed cash land payments may have lower estimated land costs. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2021 UT Crop Budgets. With input costs (such as fertilizer, fuel and crop insurance premiums) rising substantially in 2021 variable costs have been increased 10-25% over UT budget estimates. 

Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses all crops are projected to have positive returns over specified costs. Corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing a $21, $15, $63, and $22 per acre net returns.  Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain greater net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will also vary among producers and production systems. Please contact your local County Extension office or Area Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.

 CottonSoybeansCornWheat/Soybeans
September 10, 2021 Yield (lb or bu)1,0494817274 /40
Harvest Price (as of 9/10/2021)$0.93$12.30$4.61$6.56/$12.30
Revenue$976$590$793$977
Variable Expenses$557$279$455$519
Returns Over Variable$419$311$338$458
Land Costs (25% of Revenue)$244$148$198$244
Returns Over Variable and Land Costs$175$163$139$214
Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor)$160$100$118$192
Returns Over Specified Costs$15$63$21$22
Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost$0.92$10.98$4.49$6.83/$11.94

2021 Estimated Returns – Irrigated

The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of the September 2021 USDA WASDE report. For the table below, irrigated yields were estimated as: 225 bushels per acre for corn, 65 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, and 1,300 pounds per acre cotton. Prices used for grain and cotton sales are based on current 2021 Tennessee harvest prices provided by USDA AMS: corn – $4.61/bu; cotton $0.93/lb; soybeans – $12.30/bu; and wheat – $6.56. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, MFP, CFAP etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2021 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Irrigation fixed costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and irrigation systems. Land cost was estimated as a share arrangement: 25% of gross revenue. Those producers with fixed cash land payments may have lower estimated land costs. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2021 UT Crop Budgets. With input costs (such as fertilizer, fuel and crop insurance premiums) rising substantially in 2021 variable costs have been increased 10-25% over UT budget estimates. 

Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses soybeans and wheat/soybeans are projected to have positive returns over specified costs. Soybeans and wheat/soybeans are showing a $48 and $58 per acre net returns. Net loss for cotton and corn was projected at $14 per acre and $50 per acre. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain greater net return over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems. Please contact your local County Extension office or Area Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.

 CottonSoybeansCornWheat/Soybeans
Estimated Yield (lb or bu)1,3006522585/55
Harvest Price (as of 9/10/2021)$0.93$12.30$4.61$6.56/$12.30
Revenue$1,209$800$1,037$1,234
Variable Expenses (includes energy cost)$640$330$587$574
Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre$102$102$102$102
Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR Costs$467$368$348$558
Land Costs (25% of Revenue)$302$200$259$309
Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed Cost and Land Costs$165$168$89$249
Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor)$179$120$139$191
Returns Over Specified Costs($14)$48($50)$58
Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost$0.94$11.57$4.83$6.92/$10.69