Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook
The following is a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based on 2018 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2023 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2023 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.
The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith.
September 12, 2024 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates
Corn
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
December 2024 corn futures closed up 1 ¼ cents at $4.06 with a trading range for the day of $3.97 to $4.09 ¾. March 2025 corn futures closed up 1 cent at $4.24 ½ with a trading range for the day of $4.16 to $4.28. National average corn yield increased 0.5 bu/acre to 183.6 bu/acre, increasing production by 39 million bushels. The report will not change market direction and December futures prices are likely to continue to trade sideways between $3.85 and $4.25.
USDA Summary
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2024/25 are 55 million bushels lower based on increases in exports and corn used for ethanol for 2023/24. Corn production for 2024/25 is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 39 million from last month on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 183.6 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 82.7 million. Total U.S. corn use is unchanged at 15.0 billion bushels. With supply falling and use unchanged, ending stocks are reduced 16 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.10 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast lower. This month’s 2024/25 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, virtually unchanged trade, and reduced stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for the EU, Ghana, Russia, and Serbia partially offset by increases for Tanzania and Canada. EU corn production is lowered based on reductions for Romania and Hungary partially offset by an increase for France.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2024/25 include larger corn exports for Tanzania and Canada with reductions for Russia, the EU, and Serbia. Corn imports are raised for the EU, Mexico, India, and Thailand but reduced for China, Canada, and Iran. Foreign corn ending stocks are cut 55 million bushels to 10.082 billion, mostly reflecting a reduction for China partly offset by an increase for Tanzania. World corn ending stocks, at 12.141 billion bushels, are down 71 million.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected August | 2024/25 Projected September | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 90.7 | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 90.7 | 90.7 | 0.0 | -3.9 |
| Harvested (Million) | 82.3 | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 82.7 | 82.7 | 0.0 | -3.8 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 171.4 | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 183.1 | 183.6 | 0.5 | 6.3 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,919 | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,867 | 1,812 | -55 | 452 |
| Production | 14,111 | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,342 | 15,147 | 15,186 | 39 | -156 |
| Imports | 24 | 24 | 39 | 30 | 25 | 25 | 0 | -5 |
| Total Supply | 16,055 | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,732 | 17,038 | 17,022 | -16 | 290 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Feed and Residual | 5,607 | 5,671 | 5,486 | 5,775 | 5,825 | 5,825 | 0 | 50 |
| Ethanol | 5,028 | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,465 | 5,450 | 5,450 | 0 | -15 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 1,439 | 1,437 | 1,382 | 1,390 | 1,390 | 1,390 | 0 | 0 |
| Exports | 2,747 | 2,472 | 1,662 | 2,290 | 2,300 | 2,300 | 0 | 10 |
| Total Use | 14,821 | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,920 | 14,965 | 14,965 | 0 | 45 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,812 | 2,073 | 2,057 | -16 | 245 |
| Foreign Stocks | 10,294 | 10,858 | 10,561 | 10,378 | 10,138 | 10,082 | -56 | -296 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $4.53 | $6.00 | $6.54 | $4.65 | $4.20 | $4.10 | -$0.10 | -$0.55 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 8.33% | 9.24% | 9.92% | 12.14% | 13.85% | 13.75% | $0.00 | 1.60% |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024/25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 12,190 | 47,973 | 7,299 | 30,399 | 48,023 | 7,534 | 12,139 |
| United States | 1,812 | 15,185 | 25 | 5,825 | 12,665 | 2,300 | 2,057 |
| Total Foreign | 10,378 | 32,787 | 7,274 | 24,574 | 35,358 | 5,234 | 10,082 |
| Argentina | 61 | 2,008 | 0 | 405 | 583 | 1,417 | 69 |
| Brazil | 191 | 5,000 | 59 | 2,480 | 3,208 | 1,929 | 112 |
| Russia | 30 | 531 | 2 | 358 | 402 | 150 | 12 |
| South Africa | 42 | 669 | 0 | 272 | 528 | 126 | 57 |
| Ukraine | 61 | 1,071 | 1 | 122 | 159 | 945 | 29 |
| Egypt | 56 | 299 | 307 | 508 | 606 | 0 | 56 |
| E.U. | 294 | 2,323 | 748 | 2,185 | 2,964 | 130 | 271 |
| Japan | 52 | 1 | 610 | 480 | 612 | 0 | 50 |
| Mexico | 124 | 984 | 886 | 1,153 | 1,890 | 1 | 104 |
| Southeast Asia | 128 | 1,239 | 728 | 1,614 | 1,953 | 22 | 120 |
| South Korea | 76 | 4 | 465 | 374 | 467 | 0 | 78 |
| Canada | 73 | 598 | 87 | 402 | 618 | 75 | 65 |
| China | 8,321 | 11,495 | 827 | 9,094 | 12,322 | 1 | 8,320 |
| ROW | 869 | 6,565 | 2,554 | 5,127 | 9,046 | 439 | 739 |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels): Current-Previous Month 2024/25
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 44 | -49 | -18 | -24 | 66 | -4 | -72 |
| United States | -55 | 39 | – | – | – | – | -16 |
| Total Foreign | 99 | -88 | -17 | -24 | 66 | -4 | -56 |
| Argentina | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | 39 | – | – | -39 | 39 | – | – |
| Russia | – | -24 | – | -4 | -4 | -16 | -4 |
| South Africa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ukraine | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Egypt | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| E.U. | – | -59 | 39 | -12 | -12 | -8 | – |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | 16 | – | 20 | 35 | 35 | – | – |
| Southeast Asia | – | – | 12 | 12 | 12 | – | – |
| South Korea | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Canada | 10 | 28 | -20 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 2 |
| China | 20 | – | -79 | – | – | – | -59 |
| ROW | 14 | -33 | 10 | -24 | -13 | 12 | 6 |
Cotton
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
December 2024 cotton futures closed up 0.77 cents at 70.38 with a trading range for the day of 69.30 to 70.59 cents. March 2025 cotton futures closed up 0.64 cents at 71.81 cents with a trading range for the day of 70.82 to 72.10 cents. Foreign and domestic stocks were decreased 840,000 bales compared to last month. Prices will continue to remain in the low 70 cents until demand improves.
USDA Summary
The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 shows lower production, exports, and ending stocks compared to last month. Beginning stocks and domestic use are unchanged. The September NASS forecast of U.S. production is 14.5 million bales, down about 600,000 bales from August, largely due to reduced yields for upland cotton in the Southwest. The all-cotton yield forecast of 807 pounds per acre is 33 pounds lower than last month. With lower production for 2024/25, exports are reduced 200,000 bales to 11.8 million, and ending stocks are decreased 500,000 bales to 4.0 million, or 29 percent of projected use. The 2024/25 season-average upland farm price is unchanged at 66 cents per pound. Revisions to the 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet include a 400,000-bale increase in beginning stocks and a similar reduction in unaccounted based on revised data and methodologies. For more information, see this month’s edition of the Foreign Agricultural Service’s Cotton: World Markets and Trade.
In the global cotton balance sheet for 2024/25, production, consumption, trade, and beginning and ending stocks are all reduced. World production is lowered by about 1.2 million bales as smaller crops in the United States, India, and Pakistan more than offset a larger crop in China. World consumption is reduced about 460,000 bales, largely due to a 200,000-bale decrease in Vietnam and 100,000-bale reductions in Bangladesh and Turkey. World trade is lowered about 550,000 bales as reduced imports by China, Vietnam, Turkey, and Bangladesh offset an increase in India. World ending stocks are reduced 1.1 million bales from August to about 76.5 million. The forecast for the world price of cotton, represented by the “A” Index, is unchanged at 81.5 cents. The 2023/24 global balance sheet is revised to reflect higher beginning stocks and mill use, and lower ending stocks. Production and trade are marginally reduced.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected August | 2024/25 Projected September | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 12.09 | 11.21 | 13.75 | 10.23 | 11.17 | 11.17 | 0 | 0.94 |
| Harvested (Million) | 8.22 | 10.26 | 7.29 | 6.44 | 8.63 | 8.63 | 0 | 2.19 |
| U.S. Average Yield (lb/acre) | 853 | 820 | 953 | 899 | 840 | 807 | -33 | -92 |
| Supply (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 7.25 | 3.15 | 4.6 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Production | 14.61 | 17.52 | 14.47 | 12.07 | 15.11 | 14.51 | -0.6 | 2.44 |
| Imports | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.01 |
| Total Supply | 21.86 | 20.68 | 19.07 | 16.72 | 18.27 | 17.67 | -0.6 | 0.95 |
| Use and Stocks (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Domestic | 2.4 | 2.55 | 2.05 | 1.85 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0 | 0.05 |
| Exports | 16.35 | 14.48 | 12.45 | 11.75 | 12 | 11.8 | -0.2 | 0.05 |
| Total Use | 18.75 | 17.03 | 14.5 | 13.6 | 13.9 | 13.7 | -0.2 | 0.1 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 3.15 | 4.05 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | 0.85 |
| Foreign Stocks | 83.15 | 72.27 | 71.32 | 72.46 | 73.11 | 72.49 | -0.62 | 0.03 |
| Chinese Stocks | 37.79 | 38.06 | 33.36 | 37.62 | 37.06 | 36.84 | -0.22 | -0.78 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/lb) | $0.663 | $0.914 | $0.848 | $0.76 | $0.66 | $0.66 | $0.00 | -$0.10 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 16.8% | 24% | 32% | 23% | 32% | 29% | -3.18% | 6.04% |
| Chinese Stocks/Use | 95.7% | 115.3% | 88.5% | 99.0% | 97.5% | 96.9% | -0.58% | -2.05% |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) 2024/25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 75.61 | 116.42 | 42.99 | 115.75 | 42.99 | -0.21 | 76.49 |
| United States | 3.15 | 14.51 | 0.01 | 1.9 | 11.8 | -0.03 | 4 |
| Total Foreign | 72.46 | 101.91 | 42.98 | 113.85 | 31.19 | -0.18 | 72.49 |
| Central Asia | 3.38 | 5.27 | 0.03 | 4.08 | 1.38 | 0 | 3.22 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | 1.29 | 4.81 | 0 | 0.1 | 4.65 | 0 | 1.36 |
| Australia | 4.19 | 5 | 0 | 0.01 | 5.4 | -0.18 | 3.96 |
| Brazil | 3.17 | 16.7 | 0.01 | 3.3 | 12.5 | 0 | 4.08 |
| India | 10.17 | 24 | 2.3 | 25.5 | 1.3 | 0 | 9.67 |
| Mexico | 0.24 | 0.83 | 0.93 | 1.55 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.24 |
| China | 37.62 | 27.8 | 9.5 | 38 | 0.08 | 0 | 36.84 |
| E.U. | 0.32 | 1.36 | 0.54 | 0.56 | 1.25 | 0 | 0.41 |
| Turkey | 1.41 | 4 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 0 | 1.81 |
| Pakistan | 1.85 | 5.7 | 4 | 9.6 | 0.05 | 0 | 1.9 |
| Indonesia | 0.4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.39 |
| Thailand | 0.09 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.42 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 |
| Bangladesh | 1.59 | 0.16 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 0 | 0 | 1.74 |
| Vietnam | 1.03 | 0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | 1.04 |
| ROW | 5.71 | 6.28 | 3.97 | 6.63 | 3.57 | 0.00 | 5.75 |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales): 2024/25 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -0.17 | -1.22 | -0.64 | -0.46 | -0.55 | 0.10 | -1.12 |
| United States | – | -0.6 | – | – | -0.2 | 0.11 | -0.5 |
| Total Foreign | -0.17 | -0.62 | -0.65 | -0.46 | -0.35 | – | -0.62 |
| Central Asia | – | 0.08 | – | – | -0.02 | – | 0.1 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | 0.01 | -0.11 | – | – | -0.13 | – | 0.04 |
| Australia | 0.04 | – | – | – | – | – | 0.05 |
| Brazil | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| India | -0.4 | -0.5 | 0.3 | – | -0.2 | – | -0.4 |
| Mexico | – | 0.03 | -0.02 | – | – | – | – |
| China | -0.01 | 0.3 | -0.5 | – | – | – | -0.22 |
| E.U. | -0.03 | – | -0.01 | -0.01 | – | – | -0.03 |
| Turkey | -0.02 | – | -0.1 | -0.1 | – | – | -0.02 |
| Pakistan | 0.2 | -0.3 | – | – | – | – | -0.1 |
| Indonesia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Thailand | -0.01 | – | – | – | – | – | -0.01 |
| Bangladesh | – | – | -0.1 | -0.1 | – | – | – |
| Vietnam | -0.02 | – | -0.2 | -0.2 | – | – | -0.01 |
| ROW | 0.07 | -0.12 | -0.01 | -0.05 | – | -0.01 | -0.02 |
Soybeans
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
November 2024 soybean futures were up 10 ¼ cents for the day closing at $10.10 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $9.97 ¼ to $10.17 ¼. January 2025 soybean futures closed up 10 ½ cents at $10.29 ½ with a trading range for the day of $10.15 ¾ to $10.35 ¼. A dry start to the Brazilian production season has the potential to provide price support, however record projected global stocks of 4.945 billion bushels will limit the magnitude of the advances.
USDA Summary
U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2024/25 include lower beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect a slight increase to crush for 2023/24. Soybean production for 2024/25 is projected down 3 million bushels to 4.6 billion. With 2024/25 soybean crush and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 550 million bushels, down 10 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal and soybean oil prices are also unchanged at $320 per short ton and 42 cents per pound, respectively. Other changes this month include lower peanut and cottonseed production.
Foreign 2024/25 oilseed production is reduced, mainly on lower rapeseed production for the EU and lower sunflowerseed production for the EU, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Moldova. Foreign soybean production is raised 22 million bushels on higher production for Paraguay and Canada partly offset by lower output for the EU and Serbia. Production for Paraguay is increased for 2022/23 through 2024/25 on higher area. Production in Paraguay for 2023/24 is raised to reflect the strong pace of exports and crush to date.
Global soybean trade for 2024/25 is increased to 6.673 billion bushels on higher exports for Paraguay and imports for Argentina. Global soybean ending stocks are increased 11 million bushels to 4.946 billion as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected August | 2024/25 Projected September | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 83.4 | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 87.1 | 87.1 | 0.0 | 3.5 |
| Harvested (Million) | 82.6 | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.4 | 86.3 | 86.3 | 0.0 | 3.9 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 51.0 | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 53.2 | 53.2 | 0.0 | 2.6 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 525 | 257 | 274 | 264 | 345 | 340 | -5 | 76 |
| Production | 4,216 | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,165 | 4,589 | 4,586 | -3 | 421 |
| Imports | 20 | 16 | 25 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 0 | -5 |
| Total Supply | 4,761 | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,449 | 4,949 | 4,941 | -8 | 492 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Crushing | 2,141 | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,295 | 2,425 | 2,425 | 0 | 130 |
| Exports | 2,266 | 2,152 | 1,980 | 1,700 | 1,850 | 1,850 | 0 | 150 |
| Seed and Residual | 97 | 107 | 114 | 114 | 114 | 116 | 2 | 2 |
| Total Use | 4,504 | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,109 | 4,389 | 4,391 | 2 | 282 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 340 | 560 | 550 | -10 | 210 |
| Foreign Stocks | 3,430 | 3,146 | 3,442 | 3,785 | 4,375 | 4,395 | 20 | 610 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Average Season Price ($/Bu) | $10.80 | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.50 | $10.80 | $10.80 | $0.00 | -$1.70 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 5.71% | 6.14% | 6.13% | 8.27% | 12.76% | 12.53% | -0.23% | 4.25% |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024/2025 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 4,124 | 15,770 | 6,531 | 12,738 | 14,807 | 6,674 | 4,945 |
| United States | 340 | 4,586 | 15 | 2,425 | 2,541 | 1,850 | 550 |
| Total Foreign | 3,785 | 11,184 | 6,516 | 10,313 | 12,266 | 4,824 | 4,395 |
| Argentina | 895 | 1,874 | 220 | 1,470 | 1,749 | 165 | 1,075 |
| Brazil | 1,024 | 6,210 | 6 | 1,984 | 2,135 | 3,858 | 1,246 |
| Paraguay | 7 | 412 | 1 | 129 | 135 | 268 | 16 |
| China | 1,576 | 761 | 4,005 | 3,785 | 4,659 | 4 | 1,678 |
| E.U. | 50 | 106 | 536 | 559 | 625 | 11 | 56 |
| S.E. Asia | 30 | 17 | 368 | 184 | 371 | 0 | 44 |
| Mexico | 10 | 6 | 246 | 244 | 247 | 0 | 15 |
| ROW | 193 | 1,800 | 1,134 | 1,959 | 2,345 | 517 | 265 |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2024/2025 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -4 | 17 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 10 |
| United States | -5 | -3 | – | – | 2 | – | -10 |
| Total Foreign | 1 | 21 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 20 |
| Argentina | – | – | 18 | – | – | – | 18 |
| Brazil | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | 2 |
| Paraguay | – | 18 | – | – | – | 18 | – |
| China | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| E.U. | – | -4 | – | – | – | – | -3 |
| S.E. Asia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | -1 | 6 | -1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
Wheat
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
December 2024 wheat futures closed down ¾ cents at $5.78 ½ with a trading range for the day of $5.73 ¼ to $5.91 ¾. July 2025 wheat futures closed down 1 cent for the day at $6.13 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $6.08 ¼ to $6.24 ¾. No major changes to the domestic supply and demand projections, and only minor changes to the foreign estimates, leave the price outlook unchanged compared to last month.
USDA Summary
The 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The projected season-average farm price remains at $5.70 per bushel.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 55 million bushels to 39.025 billion as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. Beginning stocks are raised primarily on Canada as Statistics Canada 2023/24 ending stocks were significantly higher than USDA’s previous estimate. Canada’s ending stocks were also raised substantially higher for 2021/22 and 2022/23 based on Statistics Canada revisions. World wheat production is lowered 51 million bushels to 29.281 billion, but remains a record, as a reduction in the EU is only partially offset by higher production for Australia and Ukraine. The EU is reduced 147 million bushels to 4.556 billion on unfavorable harvest weather for France and Germany. Australia’s production is raised 73 million bushels to 1.176 billion on favorable conditions in Western Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland. Ukraine is raised 26 million bushels to 819 million based on harvest data released by the Ministry of Agriculture.
Global consumption is increased 33 million bushels to 29.575 billion, primarily on higher feed and residual use for several countries more than offsetting a reduction for the EU. World trade is raised 62 million bushels to 7.955 billion as higher exports for Australia, Canada, and Ukraine more than offset a reduction for the EU. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are raised 22 million bushels to 9.45 billion as increases for Canada, Brazil, and Kazakhstan more than offset reductions for Australia, Turkey, and several other countries.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected August | 2024/25 Projected September | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 44.5 | 46.7 | 45.8 | 49.6 | 46.3 | 46.3 | 0 | -3.3 |
| Harvested (Million) | 36.8 | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.3 | 37.9 | 37.9 | 0 | 0.6 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 49.7 | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.6 | 52.2 | 52.2 | 0 | 3.6 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,028 | 845 | 674 | 570 | 702 | 702 | 0 | 132 |
| Production | 1,828 | 1,646 | 1,650 | 1,812 | 1,982 | 1,982 | 0 | 170 |
| Imports | 100 | 96 | 122 | 138 | 105 | 105 | 0 | -33 |
| Total Supply | 2,956 | 2,588 | 2,446 | 2,520 | 2,789 | 2,789 | 0 | 269 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Food | 961 | 971 | 972 | 961 | 964 | 964 | 0 | 3 |
| Seed | 64 | 58 | 68 | 64 | 62 | 62 | 0 | -2 |
| Feed | 93 | 88 | 74 | 86 | 110 | 110 | 0 | 24 |
| Exports | 994 | 796 | 762 | 707 | 825 | 825 | 0 | 118 |
| Total Use | 2,111 | 1,913 | 1,876 | 1,818 | 1,961 | 1,961 | 0 | 143 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 845 | 674 | 570 | 702 | 828 | 828 | 0 | 126 |
| Foreign Stocks | 9,676 | 9,345 | 9,485 | 9,044 | 8,602 | 8,624 | 22 | -420 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $5.05 | $7.63 | $8.83 | $6.96 | $5.70 | $5.70 | $0.00 | -$1.26 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 40.03% | 35.23% | 30.38% | 38.61% | 42.22% | 42.22% | 0.00% | 3.61% |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024-25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 9,746 | 29,280 | 7,726 | 5,582 | 29,575 | 7,955 | 9,451 |
| United States | 702 | 1,982 | 105 | 110 | 1,136 | 825 | 828 |
| Total Foreign | 9,044 | 27,299 | 7,621 | 5,472 | 28,439 | 7,130 | 8,624 |
| Argentina | 168 | 661 | 0 | 9 | 259 | 423 | 148 |
| Australia | 112 | 1,176 | 7 | 147 | 276 | 919 | 101 |
| Canada | 168 | 1,286 | 20 | 165 | 353 | 955 | 166 |
| European Union | 539 | 4,556 | 423 | 1,635 | 3,996 | 1,157 | 364 |
| Russia | 374 | 3,050 | 11 | 588 | 1,424 | 1,764 | 248 |
| Ukraine | 26 | 819 | 3 | 81 | 257 | 551 | 40 |
| Bangladesh | 40 | 40 | 254 | 9 | 292 | 0 | 42 |
| Brazil | 58 | 349 | 202 | 18 | 437 | 110 | 61 |
| China | 4,942 | 5,144 | 441 | 1,213 | 5,548 | 37 | 4,942 |
| Japan | 43 | 43 | 195 | 24 | 224 | 11 | 45 |
| N. Africa | 405 | 590 | 1,172 | 53 | 1,720 | 59 | 389 |
| Nigeria | 16 | 4 | 202 | 0 | 184 | 14 | 25 |
| Sel. Mideast | 467 | 812 | 680 | 115 | 1,484 | 30 | 445 |
| Southeast Asia | 188 | 0 | 1,086 | 355 | 1,039 | 47 | 188 |
| India | 276 | 4,189 | 11 | 220 | 4,152 | 11 | 312 |
| Kazakhstan | 122 | 588 | 37 | 73 | 257 | 386 | 104 |
| United Kingdom | 133 | 399 | 118 | 239 | 533 | 18 | 98 |
| ROW | 967 | 3,593 | 2,760 | 527 | 6,005 | 639 | 904 |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2024/2025 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 106 | -51 | 69 | 28 | 32 | 61 | 22 |
| United States | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Total Foreign | 106 | -51 | 69 | 28 | 32 | 61 | 22 |
| Argentina | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Australia | -19 | 73 | – | 18 | 18 | 73 | -37 |
| Canada | 101 | – | – | 18 | 11 | 37 | 53 |
| European Union | -27 | -147 | 18 | -55 | -55 | -92 | -9 |
| Russia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ukraine | -2 | 26 | – | -11 | -15 | 37 | 1 |
| Bangladesh | – | – | 15 | – | 11 | – | 4 |
| Brazil | 18 | – | – | – | – | – | 18 |
| China | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| N. Africa | 16 | – | – | – | – | – | 16 |
| Nigeria | – | – | 11 | – | 4 | – | 8 |
| Sel. Mideast | -4 | – | -4 | – | -1 | – | -7 |
| Southeast Asia | – | – | 66 | 51 | 64 | 5 | -3 |
| India | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Kazakhstan | 18 | – | – | – | – | – | 18 |
| United Kingdom | – | – | – | 18 | 18 | – | -18 |
| ROW | 4 | -4 | -37 | -13 | -24 | – | -22 |
Profitability Update
2024 Estimated Returns – Non-Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of the September 12, 2024, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, non-irrigated yields are average yields for Tennessee from the USDA Crop Production Report. Prices used for grain, oilseeds, and cotton are based on current Tennessee harvest cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2024 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Land cost was estimated as a cash rent at the USDA NASS state average for non-irrigated cropland of $117 per acre. Substantial variation in land costs exist in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2024 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses returns over specified costs for corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing a -$241, -$157, -$135, and -$124 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will also vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield – Crop Production Report (Tennessee) | 1,114 | 46 | 153 | 76/40 |
| Current Price (as of 9/12/2024) | $0.70 | $9.72 | $3.72 | $5.47/$9.72 |
| Revenue | $780 | $447 | $569 | $853 |
| Variable Expenses | $610 | $305 | $520 | $590 |
| Returns Over Variable | $170 | $142 | $49 | $263 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $117 | $117 | $117 | $117 |
| Returns Over Variable and Land Costs | $53 | $25 | ($68) | $146 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $210 | $160 | $173 | $270 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($157) | ($135) | ($241) | ($124) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.84 | $12.65 | $5.29 | $5.50/$10.75 |
2024 Estimated Returns – Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of the September 12, 2024, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, irrigated yields were estimated as: 240 bushels per acre for corn, 65 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, 1,450 pounds per acre cotton, and 85 bushels of wheat and 55 bushels of soybeans for double crop wheat/soybeans. Prices used for grain and cotton sales are based on current Tennessee harvest cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2024 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Irrigation fixed costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and irrigation systems. Land cost was estimated as cash rent of $197/acre (USDA NASS state average for irrigated cropland in Tennessee). Substantial variation in land costs exist in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2024 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing returns of -$305, -$242, -$208, and -$272 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Yield (lb or bu) | 1,450 | 65 | 240 | 85/55 |
| Current Price (as of 9/12/2024) | $0.70 | $9.72 | $3.72 | $5.47/$9.72 |
| Revenue | $1,015 | $632 | $893 | $1,000 |
| Variable Expenses (includes energy cost) | $735 | $380 | $720 | $720 |
| Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre | $100 | $100 | $100 | $100 |
| Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR Costs | $180 | $152 | $73 | $180 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $197 | $197 | $197 | $197 |
| Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed Cost and Land Costs | ($17) | ($45) | ($124) | ($17) |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $225 | $163 | $181 | $255 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($242) | ($208) | ($305) | ($272) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.87 | $12.92 | $4.99 | $7.48/$11.56 |