Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook
The following is a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based on 2018 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2025 UT Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2023 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.
The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith.
July 11, 2025 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates
Corn
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
September 2025 corn futures closed down 3 ¼ cents at $3.96 with a trading range for the day of $3.94 ½ to $4.01 ½. December 2025 corn futures closed down 4 ¼ cents for the day at $4.12 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $4.11 ½ to $4.18. Lower month over month domestic and foreign ending stock projections are positive however additional U.S. yield and acreage data are likely needed to set a seasonal low.
USDA Summary
This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies, domestic use, and ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are cut 25 million bushels to 1.3 billion, reflecting an increase in exports that is partly offset by lower feed and residual use for 2024/25. Feed and residual use is down 75 million based on indicated disappearance in the June 30 Grain Stocks report. Exports are raised 100 million bushels to 2.8 billion based on current outstanding sales and shipments to date and, if realized, would be record high. Corn production for 2025/26 is forecast down 115 million bushels on lower planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 181.0 bushels per acre. Total use is cut 50 million bushels with a reduction for feed and residual use based on lower supplies. With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are down 90 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.20 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 3.6 million tons lower to 1.547 billion. This month’s 2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, total use, and stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is raised reflecting area increases for Canada and Mexico. For 2024/25, corn production is raised for Brazil and the Philippines with a partly offsetting decline for Mexico. Brazil corn yield expectations are boosted this month based on reported second crop harvest results to date for the Center-West.
Major global trade changes for 2025/26 include larger corn imports for Zimbabwe and Egypt but reductions for Canada and Mexico. For 2024/25 corn exports are raised for the United States and Canada but lowered for Turkey. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are cut, with reductions for China and India partly offset by an increase for Brazil. Global corn stocks, at 10.712 billion bushels, are down 126 million.
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 Est. | 2025/26 Projected June | 2025/26 Projected July | 2025/26 Change from Previous Month | Change 2025/26-2024/25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 90.6 | 95.3 | 95.2 | -0.1 | 4.6 |
| Harvested (Million) | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 82.9 | 87.4 | 86.8 | -0.6 | 3.9 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 179.3 | 181 | 181 | 0.0 | 1.7 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,365 | 1,340 | -25 | -423 |
| Production | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,341 | 14,867 | 15,820 | 15,705 | -115 | 838 |
| Imports | 24 | 39 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Supply | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,729 | 16,655 | 17,210 | 17,070 | -140 | 415 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Feed and Residual | 5,671 | 5,486 | 5,843 | 5,675 | 5,900 | 5,850 | -50 | 175 |
| Ethanol | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,478 | 5,500 | 5,500 | 5,500 | 0 | 0 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 1,437 | 1,382 | 1,390 | 1,390 | 1,385 | 1,385 | 0 | -5 |
| Exports | 2,472 | 1,662 | 2,255 | 2,750 | 2,675 | 2,675 | 0 | -75 |
| Total Use | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,966 | 15,315 | 15,460 | 15,410 | -50 | 95 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,340 | 1,750 | 1,660 | -90 | 320 |
| Foreign Stocks | 10,858 | 10,638 | 10,665 | 9,848 | 9,085 | 9,051 | -34 | -797 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $6.00 | $6.54 | $4.55 | $4.30 | $4.20 | $4.20 | $0.00 | -$0.10 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 9.24% | 9.92% | 11.78% | 9.28% | 11.32% | 10.77% | -$0.01 | $0.01 |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 11,188 | 49,748 | 7,392 | 31,531 | 50,224 | 7,709 | 10,711 |
| United States | 1,340 | 15,705 | 25 | 5,850 | 12,735 | 2,675 | 1,660 |
| Total Foreign | 9,848 | 34,043 | 7,367 | 25,682 | 37,489 | 5,034 | 9,051 |
| Argentina | 109 | 2,087 | 0 | 441 | 614 | 1,457 | 126 |
| Brazil | 315 | 5,157 | 63 | 2,579 | 3,701 | 1,693 | 141 |
| Russia | 36 | 591 | 2 | 398 | 441 | 142 | 46 |
| South Africa | 49 | 650 | 0 | 280 | 559 | 75 | 65 |
| Ukraine | 12 | 1,201 | 0 | 209 | 245 | 945 | 24 |
| Egypt | 56 | 285 | 354 | 531 | 634 | 0 | 62 |
| E.U. | 249 | 2,362 | 807 | 2,272 | 3,063 | 118 | 237 |
| Japan | 50 | 1 | 610 | 480 | 610 | 0 | 51 |
| Mexico | 223 | 976 | 976 | 1,102 | 1,949 | 1 | 226 |
| SE Asia | 111 | 1,231 | 846 | 1,622 | 2,039 | 24 | 125 |
| South Korea | 82 | 4 | 453 | 368 | 457 | 0 | 82 |
| Canada | 63 | 591 | 91 | 374 | 594 | 83 | 67 |
| China | 7,684 | 11,614 | 394 | 9,409 | 12,637 | 1 | 7,053 |
| ROW | 807 | 7,295 | 2,770 | 5,618 | 9,946 | 496 | 746 |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) Current – Previous Month 2025/26
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -34 | -91 | 11 | -38 | -1 | 0 | -124 |
| United States | -25 | -115 | – | -50 | -50 | – | -90 |
| Total Foreign | -9 | 24 | 11 | 12 | 49 | – | -34 |
| Argentina | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | 79 | – | – | – | 39 | – | 39 |
| Russia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| South Africa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ukraine | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Egypt | 4 | 0 | 10 | – | 12 | – | 2 |
| E.U. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | -3 | 12 | -8 | – | – | – | 2 |
| SE Asia | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | 3 |
| South Korea | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Canada | -2 | 12 | -8 | – | 4 | – | -2 |
| China | -79 | – | – | – | – | – | -79 |
| ROW | -10 | – | 17 | 4 | -6 | – | 1 |
Cotton
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
December 2025 cotton futures closed down 0.31 cents at 67.42 cents with a trading range for the day of 67.25 to 67.94 cents. March 26 cotton futures closed down 0.31 cents at 68.75 with a trading range for the day of 68.56 to 69.24 cents. U.S. acreage estimates will likely require revisions as there is some skepticism that the number of acres reported were / will be actually planted. Futures prices are likely to continue to struggle to gain traction above 70 cents.
USDA Summary
The July U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2025/26 shows higher production and ending stocks, lower beginning stocks, and unchanged consumption and imports compared to last month. Planted area is raised to 10.12 million acres based on the NASS June Acreage report. Harvested area is increased 6 percent to 8.66 million acres, reflecting higher planted area along with lower abandonment in the Southwest that is partially offset by higher abandonment in the Southeast. The national average yield for 2025/26 is lowered 1 percent to 809 pounds per harvested acre as the reduced abandonment in the Southwest results in the harvest of more lower-yielding dryland acres. With the increase in harvested area exceeding the yield reduction, the production forecast is increased 600,000 bales from June’s projection to 14.60 million, and up from 14.41 million last year. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are reduced 300,000 bales following a corresponding increase in projected exports for 2024/25. These revisions result in 2025/26 ending stocks of 4.60 million bales, up 300,000 from last month, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 32.4 percent. The projected season-average upland price for 2025/26 is unchanged this month at 62 cents per pound.
For the 2025/26 world cotton balance sheet, production, consumption, and ending stocks are raised while trade and beginning stocks are reduced. World production is increased 1.43 million bales as China’s crop is raised 1 million bales, the U.S. crop is raised 600,000 bales and Mexico’s crop is raised 100,000 bales, partially offset by reductions for Pakistan and Egypt. Global consumption is raised 365,000 bales with increases for Pakistan and Mexico partially offset by reductions for Italy and Germany. Global exports are lowered 100,000 bales. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are reduced 510,000 bales, reflecting reductions in the United States and China and small changes elsewhere. However, ending stocks for 2025/26 are increased by 520,000 bales as higher production more than offsets the increase in consumption and decline in beginning stocks.
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 Est. | 2025/26 Projected June | 2025/26 Projected July | 2025/26 Change from Previous Month | Change 2025/26-2024/25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 11.21 | 13.75 | 10.23 | 11.18 | 9.87 | 10.12 | 0.25 | -1.06 |
| Harvested (Million) | 10.26 | 7.29 | 6.44 | 7.81 | 8.19 | 8.66 | 0.47 | 0.85 |
| U.S. Average Yield (lb/acre) | 820 | 953 | 899 | 886 | 820 | 809 | -11 | -77 |
| Supply (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 3.15 | 4.6 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 4.4 | 4.1 | -0.3 | 0.95 |
| Production | 17.52 | 14.47 | 12.07 | 14.41 | 14 | 14.6 | 0.6 | 0.19 |
| Imports | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Supply | 20.68 | 19.07 | 16.72 | 17.57 | 18.41 | 18.71 | 0.3 | 1.14 |
| Use and Stocks (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Domestic | 2.55 | 2.05 | 1.85 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Exports | 14.48 | 12.45 | 11.75 | 11.8 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Total Use | 17.03 | 14.5 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 0 | 0.7 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 4.05 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Foreign Stocks | 72.27 | 71.25 | 70.59 | 72.68 | 72.5 | 72.72 | 0.22 | 0.04 |
| Chinese Stocks | 38.06 | 33.36 | 36.72 | 36.84 | 37.02 | 37.07 | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/lb) | $0.914 | $0.848 | $0.761 | $0.630 | $0.620 | $0.620 | $0.00 | -$0.01 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 24% | 32% | 23% | 38% | 30% | 32% | 2.11% | -$0.05 |
| Chinese Stocks/Use | 115.3% | 88.5% | 94.4% | 101.7% | 101.4% | 101.6% | 0.14% | $0.00 |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 76.78 | 118.42 | 44.68 | 118.12 | 44.69 | -0.25 | 77.32 |
| United States | 4.1 | 14.6 | 0.01 | 1.7 | 12.5 | -0.1 | 4.6 |
| Total Foreign | 72.68 | 103.82 | 44.68 | 116.42 | 32.19 | -0.15 | 72.72 |
| Central Asia | 2.87 | 5.1 | 0.2 | 4.08 | 1.44 | 0 | 2.65 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | 1.41 | 4.83 | 0 | 0.11 | 4.83 | 0 | 1.31 |
| Australia | 4.93 | 4.1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -0.15 | 4.18 |
| Brazil | 3.82 | 18.25 | 0.01 | 3.5 | 14.3 | 0 | 4.27 |
| India | 9.75 | 23.5 | 3 | 25.5 | 1 | 0 | 9.75 |
| Mexico | 0.24 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.35 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.19 |
| China | 36.84 | 31 | 5.8 | 36.5 | 0.08 | 0 | 37.07 |
| E.U. | 0.23 | 1.28 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 1.22 | 0 | 0.25 |
| Turkey | 1.3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 1 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Pakistan | 2.1 | 5 | 5.9 | 10.9 | 0.05 | 0 | 2.05 |
| Indonesia | 0.38 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.02 | 0 | 0.37 |
| Thailand | 0.09 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 |
| Bangladesh | 1.76 | 0.15 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 0 | 0 | 1.92 |
| Vietnam | 1.04 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1.04 |
| ROW | 5.92 | 6.21 | 4.99 | 7.77 | 3.15 | 0.00 | 6.18 |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) Current – Previous Month 2025/26
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -0.51 | 1.43 | -0.14 | 0.36 | -0.1 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| United States | -0.3 | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | 0.3 |
| Total Foreign | -0.21 | 0.83 | -0.13 | 0.36 | -0.1 | – | 0.22 |
| Central Asia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Australia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| India | 0.05 | – | – | – | – | – | 0.05 |
| Mexico | 0.02 | 0.1 | – | 0.1 | – | – | 0.02 |
| China | -0.28 | 1 | -0.7 | – | -0.02 | – | 0.05 |
| E.U. | -0.06 | – | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.02 | – | -0.03 |
| Turkey | -0.05 | – | – | – | – | – | -0.05 |
| Pakistan | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | – | – | 0.2 |
| Indonesia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Thailand | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Bangladesh | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Vietnam | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | 0.01 | -0.07 | – | – | -0.06 | – | -0.02 |
Soybeans
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
August 2025 soybean futures were down 8 ¼ cents for the day closing at $10.04 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $9.99 ¾ to $10.16 ¼. November 2025 soybean futures closed down 6 ½ cents at $10.07 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $10.03 ½ to $10.17. Soybean markets continue to weigh abundant global supplies, increased crush / bio fuel demand, and tariff related export uncertainty. Futures prices may be approaching a seasonal low.
USDA Summary
Following the June 30 NASS Acreage report, U.S. oilseed production for 2025/26 is projected at 128.3 million tons, down 0.1 million from last month on lower soybean, sunflower, canola, and peanut production partly offset by higher cottonseed.
The 2025/26 outlook for U.S. soybeans shows slightly lower production, higher crush, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks compared to last month. Soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, down 5 million from last month on lower harvested acres and an unchanged yield of 52.5 bushels per acre. U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 is raised 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion, supported by higher demand for soybean oil for biofuel. This month’s report assumes the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) proposed rule for required Renewable Fuel Standard volumes for 2026 and 2027 when evaluating soybean oil demand. EPA not only significantly raised the mandates but also proposed to reduce the number of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) generated for imported renewable fuels and renewable fuels produced from foreign feedstocks starting in 2026, which increases demand for domestically produced feedstocks like soybean oil. Along with EPA’s proposed rule, the forecast considered additional policy incentives like the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit and current state mandates. As a result, soybean oil used for biofuel for 2025/26 is raised 1.6 billion pounds to 15.5 billion, reflecting a 23 percent increase from the prior 3-year average. Given higher domestic demand for biofuel, soybean oil imports are raised and exports are reduced. Soybean oil in the residual category (food, feed, and other industrial use) is unchanged. Higher stocks at biofuel facilities that fall into this category could displace other uses, which are expected to be partially offset by higher use of canola oil and palm oil. Soybean oil ending stocks are raised 0.1 billion pounds to 1.7 billion. With higher soybean oil prices supporting crush margins and higher crush in 2025/26, soybean meal production is raised 1.2 million short tons. Domestic disappearance is increased 0.5 million short tons to 41.8 million, a 3 percent increase over the prior year. The export forecast is raised 0.7 million short tons to 18.7 million. U.S. soybean exports for 2025/26 are lowered 70 million bushels to 1.75 billion on higher U.S. domestic demand, higher exports for Argentina and Ukraine, and larger Brazilian supplies at the end of September during the U.S. peak export season. With lower U.S. soybean exports partly offset by higher crush, ending stocks are increased 15 million bushels to 310 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025/26 is projected at $10.10 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The soybean meal price is lowered $20 to $290 per short ton and the soybean oil price is raised 7 cents to 53 cents per pound.
Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2025/26 include higher supply, increased crush, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised on trade revisions in the prior marketing year. Higher beginning stocks for Brazil are partly offset by lower stocks for China, Mexico, and Ukraine. Global soybean production is raised on higher production for Ukraine based on observed government planting progress data. Global crush is raised 40 million bushels to 13.511 billion. Crush is raised for the United States, Ukraine, and Turkey, but lowered for India, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. As a result of higher global soybean crush, global soybean meal trade is raised this month with higher imports for Colombia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Vietnam. Global soybean exports are lowered as reduced U.S. exports are partly offset by higher exports for Argentina and Ukraine. Imports are lowered for India, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. Global soybean ending stocks are increased 29 million bushels to 4.633 billion on higher stocks for Brazil and the United States partly offset by lower stocks for China, Argentina, and Mexico.
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 Est. | 2025/26 Projected June | 2025/26 Projected July | 2025/26 Change from Previous Month | Change 2025/26-2024/25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 87.1 | 83.5 | 83.4 | -0.1 | -3.7 |
| Harvested (Million) | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.3 | 86.1 | 82.7 | 82.5 | -0.2 | -3.6 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 50.7 | 52.5 | 52.5 | 0.0 | 1.8 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 350 | 350 | 0 | 8 |
| Production | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,162 | 4,366 | 4,340 | 4,335 | -5 | -31 |
| Imports | 16 | 25 | 21 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 0 | -5 |
| Total Supply | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,447 | 4,734 | 4,710 | 4,705 | -5 | -29 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Crushing | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,285 | 2,420 | 2,490 | 2,540 | 50 | 120 |
| Exports | 2,152 | 1,980 | 1,700 | 1,865 | 1,815 | 1,745 | -70 | -120 |
| Seed and Residual | 107 | 113 | 119 | 99 | 110 | 110 | 0 | 11 |
| Total Use | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,105 | 4,384 | 4,415 | 4,395 | -20 | 11 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 274 | 264 | 342 | 350 | 295 | 310 | 15 | -40 |
| Foreign Stocks | 3,146 | 3,476 | 3,894 | 4,247 | 4,309 | 4,322 | 13 | 75 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Average Season Price ($/Bu) | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.40 | $10.00 | $10.25 | $10.10 | -$0.15 | $0.10 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 6.14% | 6.13% | 8.33% | 7.98% | 6.68% | 7.05% | 0.37% | -$0.01 |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 4,597 | 15,715 | 6,837 | 13,511 | 15,622 | 6,894 | 4,632 |
| United States | 350 | 4,335 | 20 | 2,540 | 2,650 | 1,745 | 310 |
| Total Foreign | 4,247 | 11,380 | 6,817 | 10,971 | 12,972 | 5,149 | 4,322 |
| Argentina | 909 | 9 | 265 | 1,580 | 1,856 | 184 | 917 |
| Brazil | 1,327 | 6,430 | 6 | 2,131 | 2,289 | 4,115 | 1,358 |
| Paraguay | 16 | 404 | 1 | 114 | 121 | 283 | 17 |
| China | 1,598 | 772 | 4,115 | 3,968 | 4,887 | 4 | 1,594 |
| E.U. | 69 | 108 | 525 | 562 | 618 | 11 | 74 |
| S.E. Asia | 44 | 15 | 404 | 217 | 416 | 1 | 48 |
| Mexico | 20 | 10 | 246 | 250 | 253 | 0 | 23 |
| ROW | 265 | 1,858 | 1,255 | 2,148 | 2,533 | 552 | 292 |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) Current – Previous Month 2025/26
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 34 | 32 | -29 | 41 | 37 | -29 | 28 |
| United States | – | -5 | – | 50 | 50 | -70 | 15 |
| Total Foreign | 33 | 37 | -29 | -9 | -12 | 40 | 13 |
| Argentina | – | 0 | – | – | – | 18 | -18 |
| Brazil | 98 | – | – | – | – | – | 98 |
| Paraguay | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| China | -55 | – | – | – | – | – | -55 |
| E.U. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| S.E. Asia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | -11 | – | -11 | -7 | -7 | – | -14 |
| ROW | 2 | 37 | -18 | -1 | -5 | 22 | 3 |
Wheat
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
September 2025 wheat futures closed down 9 ½ cents for the day at $5.45 with a trading range for the day of $5.44 to $5.57 ½. July 2026 wheat futures closed down 10 ½ cents at $6.01 ½ with a trading range for the day of $6.01 to $6.14 ¾. Nearby wheat futures have not traded above $6.00 since the end of February 2025. It is unlikely that this will change this summer/fall.
USDA Summary
The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for increased supplies, unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised as wheat production is projected at 1,929 million bushels, up 8 million from last month on higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area. The all wheat yield is 52.6 bushels per acre, up 1.0 bushel from last month. Winter wheat production is lowered 36 million bushels to 1,345 million with reductions in Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter. The initial 2025/26 survey-based production forecasts from NASS indicate that other spring wheat is less than last year at 504 million bushels on lower harvested area and yields while Durum is slightly lower at 80 million on reduced yields. Exports are raised by 25 million bushels to 850 million on a strong early pace of sales and shipments. Projected 2025/26 ending stocks are lowered 8 million bushels to 890 million but are up 5 percent from last year. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price (SAFP) is unchanged at $5.40 per bushel, down from last year’s final SAFP of $5.52.
This month’s 2025/26 global wheat outlook is for reduced supplies, higher consumption, lower trade, and reduced ending stocks. Supplies are projected down 15 million bushels to 39.393 billion on reduced beginning stocks for multiple countries and lower production for Canada, Ukraine, and Iran more than offsetting higher production for Kazakhstan, the EU, Pakistan, and Russia. Global consumption is raised 29 million bushels to 29.784 billion, mainly on higher feed and residual use for Kazakhstan and Thailand. World trade is 48 million bushels lower at 7.83 billion on reduced exports for the EU and Ukraine only partially offset by higher exports for Russia and the United States. Projected 2025/26 global ending stocks are lowered 44 million bushels to 9.608 billion, primarily on reductions for Canada and the EU.
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 Est. | 2025/26 Projected June | 2025/26 Projected July | 2025/26 Change from Previous Month | Change 2025/26-2024/25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 46.7 | 45.8 | 49.6 | 46.1 | 45.4 | 45.5 | 0.1 | -0.6 |
| Harvested (Million) | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.1 | 38.5 | 37.2 | 36.6 | -0.6 | -1.9 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.7 | 51.2 | 51.6 | 52.6 | 1 | 1.4 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 845 | 674 | 570 | 696 | 841 | 851 | 10 | 155 |
| Production | 1,646 | 1,650 | 1,804 | 1,971 | 1,921 | 1,929 | 8 | -42 |
| Imports | 96 | 122 | 138 | 149 | 120 | 120 | 0 | -29 |
| Total Supply | 2,588 | 2,446 | 2,511 | 2,817 | 2,882 | 2,899 | 17 | 82 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Food | 971 | 972 | 961 | 975 | 977 | 977 | 0 | 2 |
| Seed | 58 | 68 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
| Feed | 88 | 74 | 86 | 103 | 120 | 120 | 0 | 17 |
| Exports | 796 | 762 | 706 | 826 | 825 | 850 | 25 | 24 |
| Total Use | 1,913 | 1,876 | 1,815 | 1,966 | 1,984 | 2,009 | 25 | 43 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 674 | 570 | 696 | 851 | 898 | 890 | -8 | 39 |
| Foreign Stocks | 9,345 | 9,550 | 9,193 | 8,835 | 8,757 | 8,719 | -38 | -116 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $7.63 | $8.83 | $6.96 | $5.52 | $5.40 | $5.40 | $0.00 | -$0.12 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 35.23% | 30.38% | 38.35% | 42.54% | 45.26% | 44.30% | -0.96% | 1.8% |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 9,685 | 29,709 | 7,674 | 5,737 | 29,785 | 7,829 | 9,609 |
| United States | 851 | 1,929 | 120 | 120 | 1,159 | 850 | 890 |
| Total Foreign | 8,835 | 27,780 | 7,553 | 5,617 | 28,626 | 6,978 | 8,719 |
| Argentina | 182 | 735 | 0 | 11 | 268 | 478 | 171 |
| Australia | 156 | 1,139 | 7 | 169 | 298 | 845 | 160 |
| Canada | 134 | 1,286 | 22 | 129 | 322 | 992 | 128 |
| EU | 454 | 5,043 | 239 | 1,709 | 4,079 | 1,194 | 463 |
| Russia | 389 | 3,068 | 11 | 588 | 1,433 | 1,690 | 345 |
| Ukraine | 58 | 808 | 4 | 73 | 243 | 570 | 58 |
| Bangladesh | 29 | 37 | 246 | 11 | 283 | 0 | 29 |
| Brazil | 80 | 294 | 246 | 18 | 445 | 99 | 76 |
| China | 4,688 | 5,218 | 220 | 1,213 | 5,512 | 37 | 4,578 |
| Japan | 40 | 40 | 200 | 26 | 228 | 11 | 42 |
| N. Africa | 395 | 645 | 1,185 | 50 | 1,710 | 78 | 436 |
| Nigeria | 25 | 5 | 235 | 0 | 228 | 15 | 22 |
| Sel. Mideast | 475 | 727 | 742 | 102 | 1,484 | 37 | 424 |
| SE Asia | 146 | 0 | 1,139 | 397 | 1,082 | 49 | 154 |
| India | 441 | 4,318 | 9 | 239 | 4,134 | 9 | 625 |
| Kazakhstan | 148 | 570 | 18 | 110 | 299 | 294 | 142 |
| UK | 103 | 459 | 118 | 265 | 570 | 22 | 89 |
| ROW | 891 | 3,389 | 2,910 | 508 | 6,011 | 559 | 776 |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) Current – Previous Month 2025/26
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -14 | -1 | -77 | 12 | 30 | -47 | -46 |
| United States | 9 | 8 | – | – | – | 25 | -8 |
| Total Foreign | -24 | -9 | -77 | 12 | 30 | -72 | -38 |
| Argentina | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Australia | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | 1 |
| Canada | -17 | -37 | 2 | -18 | -18 | – | -33 |
| EU | – | 26 | -110 | – | – | -73 | -11 |
| Russia | 18 | 18 | – | – | – | 37 | – |
| Ukraine | 4 | -37 | – | – | – | -37 | 4 |
| Bangladesh | – | – | -7 | – | -7 | – | – |
| Brazil | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | 11 |
| China | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| N. Africa | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | 3 |
| Nigeria | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sel. Mideast | -7 | -18 | 19 | – | 6 | – | -12 |
| SE Asia | -13 | – | 15 | 13 | 7 | – | -6 |
| India | – | – | – | – | -18 | – | 18 |
| Kazakhstan | -7 | 37 | – | 18 | 18 | – | 11 |
| UK | – | -11 | 7 | – | – | – | -4 |
| ROW | -17 | 13 | -2 | -1 | 42 | 2 | -19 |
Profitability Update
2025 Estimated Returns – Non-Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of July 11, 2025, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, non-irrigated yields are trendline average yields for Tennessee. Prices used for grain, oilseeds, and cotton are based on current Tennessee harvest cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2025 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Land cost was estimated as a cash rent at the USDA NASS state average for non-irrigated cropland of $117 per acre. Substantial variation in land costs exists in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2025 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on trendline yields, harvest prices, and expenses returns over specified costs for corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing -$137, -$127, -$88, and -$100 per acre net returns, down from last month’s estimates. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will also vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield – Crop Production Report (Tennessee) | 1,150 | 50 | 175 | 75/45 |
| Current Harvest Price (as of 7/11/2025) | $0.69 | $9.86 | $3.89 | $5.05/$9.86 |
| Revenue | $794 | $493 | $681 | $822 |
| Variable Expenses | $598 | $315 | $535 | $545 |
| Returns Over Variable | $196 | $178 | $146 | $277 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $117 | $117 | $117 | $117 |
| Returns Over Variable and Land Costs | $78 | $61 | $29 | $160 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $205 | $149 | $166 | $260 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($127) | ($88) | ($137) | ($100) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.80 | $11.62 | $4.67 | $5.76/$11.53 |
2025 Estimated Returns – Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of July 11, 2025, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, irrigated yields were estimated as: 250 bushels per acre for corn, 65 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, 1,500 pounds per acre cotton, and 90 bushels of wheat and 60 bushels of soybeans for double crop wheat/soybeans. Prices used for grain and cotton sales are based on current Tennessee harvest cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2025 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Irrigation fixed costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and irrigation systems. Land cost was estimated as cash rent of $197/acre (USDA NASS state average for irrigated cropland in Tennessee). Substantial variation in land costs exists in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2025 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing returns of -$200, -$198, -$197, and -$226 per acre net returns, down from last month’s estimates. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Yield (lb or bu) | 1,500 | 65 | 250 | 90/60 |
| Current Harvest Price (as of 7/11/2025) | $0.69 | $9.86 | $3.89 | $5.05/$9.86 |
| Revenue | $1,035 | $641 | $973 | $1,046 |
| Variable Expenses (includes energy cost) | $710 | $381 | $700 | $720 |
| Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre | $100 | $100 | $100 | $100 |
| Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR Costs | $225 | $160 | $173 | $226 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $197 | $197 | $197 | $197 |
| Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed Cost and Land Costs | $28 | ($37) | ($25) | $29 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $226 | $160 | $175 | $255 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($198) | ($197) | ($200) | ($226) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.82 | $12.89 | $4.69 | $7.07/$10.60 |