Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook
The following is a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based on 2018 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2023 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2023 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.
The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith.
March 8, 2023 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates
Corn
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
May 2023 corn futures closed down 8 ¾ cents at $6.25 ½ with a trading range for the day of $6.24 ½ to $6.37 ½. December 2023 corn futures closed down 9 cents at $5.58 with a trading range for the day of $5.57 ¼ to $5.67 ½. USDA finally reduced projected corn exports. Price direction will be dictated by Brazilian and U.S. planting weather and progress.
USDA Summary
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and larger ending stocks. Exports are reduced 75 million bushels reflecting the poor pace of sales and shipments to date despite relatively competitive U.S. prices. With no other use changes, ending stocks are up 75 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $6.60 per bushel based on reported prices to date.
Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast lower. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, consumption, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down, with a decline for Argentina partially offset by increases for India and Paraguay. For Argentina, production is cut as continued heat and dryness during February and into early March reduce yield prospects for late-planted corn. India corn production is higher based on official government data. Foreign barley production is higher reflecting increases for Kazakhstan, Australia, and Argentina. Foreign sorghum production is lowered with declines for Australia and Argentina.
Major global trade changes for 2022/23 include higher projected corn exports for India, Ukraine, and Paraguay, with reductions for Argentina and the United States. Corn imports are lowered for Turkey, Iran, Malaysia, Chile, Colombia, Egypt, Morocco, Peru, and Taiwan. Foreign corn ending stocks are down relative to last month, reflecting declines for Ukraine and Brazil that are partly offset by an increase for India. Global corn ending stocks, at 11.673 billion bushels, are up 47 million.
| 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 Est. | 2022/23 Projected February | 2022/23 Projected March | 2022/23 Change from Previous Month | Change 2022/23-2021/22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 88.9 | 89.7 | 90.7 | 93.3 | 88.6 | 88.6 | 0.0 | -4.7 |
| Harvested (Million) | 81.3 | 81.3 | 82.3 | 85.3 | 79.2 | 79.2 | 0.0 | -6.1 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 176.4 | 167.5 | 171.4 | 176.7 | 173.3 | 173.3 | 0.0 | -3.4 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 2,140 | 2,221 | 1,919 | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,377 | 0 | 142 |
| Production | 14,340 | 13,620 | 14,111 | 15,074 | 13,730 | 13,730 | 0 | -1,344 |
| Imports | 28 | 42 | 24 | 24 | 50 | 50 | 0 | 26 |
| Total Supply | 16,509 | 15,883 | 16,055 | 16,333 | 15,157 | 15,157 | 0 | -1,176 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Feed and Residual | 5,429 | 5,900 | 5,607 | 5,718 | 5,275 | 5,275 | 0 | -443 |
| Ethanol | 5,378 | 4,857 | 5,028 | 5,326 | 5,250 | 5,250 | 0 | -76 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 1,415 | 1,429 | 1,439 | 1,440 | 1,440 | 1,440 | 0 | 0 |
| Exports | 2,066 | 1,777 | 2,747 | 2,471 | 1,925 | 1,850 | -75 | -621 |
| Total Use | 14,288 | 13,963 | 14,821 | 14,956 | 13,890 | 13,815 | -75 | -1,141 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 2,221 | 1,919 | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,267 | 1,342 | 75 | -35 |
| Foreign Stocks | 10,419 | 10,142 | 10,294 | 10,657 | 10,358 | 10,329 | -29 | -328 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $3.61 | $3.56 | $4.53 | $6.00 | $6.70 | $6.60 | -$0.10 | $0.60 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 15.54% | 13.74% | 8.33% | 9.21% | 9.12% | 9.71% | 0.59% | 0.51% |
Source: USDA-WASDE March 8, 2023
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2022/23 Marketing Year – Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 12,034 | 45,176 | 6,869 | 28,620 | 45,539 | 6,878 | 11,671 |
| United States | 1,377 | 13,730 | 50 | 5,275 | 11,965 | 1,850 | 1,342 |
| Total Foreign | 10,657 | 31,446 | 6,819 | 23,345 | 33,574 | 5,028 | 10,329 |
| Argentina | 59 | 1,575 | 0 | 315 | 472 | 1,102 | 59 |
| Brazil | 148 | 4,921 | 51 | 2,421 | 2,874 | 1,968 | 278 |
| Russia | 37 | 551 | 2 | 386 | 429 | 130 | 31 |
| South Africa | 77 | 657 | 0 | 287 | 524 | 134 | 77 |
| Ukraine | 200 | 1,063 | 0 | 197 | 244 | 925 | 94 |
| Egypt | 61 | 293 | 354 | 539 | 638 | 0 | 70 |
| E.U. | 391 | 2,134 | 925 | 2,303 | 3,075 | 87 | 289 |
| Japan | 55 | 0 | 591 | 453 | 591 | 0 | 55 |
| Mexico | 124 | 1,087 | 677 | 1,024 | 1,740 | 24 | 124 |
| SE Asia | 134 | 1,207 | 618 | 1,484 | 1,809 | 35 | 115 |
| South Korea | 81 | 3 | 433 | 343 | 435 | 0 | 82 |
| Canada | 108 | 572 | 39 | 354 | 559 | 63 | 98 |
| China | 8,233 | 10,913 | 709 | 8,503 | 11,692 | 1 | 8,162 |
| ROW | 948 | 6,470 | 2,419 | 4,736 | 8,492 | 559 | 795 |
Source: USDA-WASDE March 8, 2023
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels): Current-Previous Month (2022/23)
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -23 | -151 | -99 | -85 | -221 | -250 | 46 |
| United States | – | – | – | – | – | -75 | 75 |
| Total Foreign | -24 | -151 | -99 | -85 | -221 | -176 | -28 |
| Argentina | – | -276 | – | – | – | -276 | – |
| Brazil | -20 | – | – | – | – | – | -20 |
| Russia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| South Africa | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | 2 |
| Ukraine | – | – | – | – | – | 39 | -39 |
| Egypt | – | – | -8 | -8 | -8 | – | – |
| E.U. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SE Asia | – | – | -8 | -12 | -12 | 4 | – |
| South Korea | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Canada | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| China | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | -5 | 124 | -83 | -65 | -202 | 57 | 29 |
Source: USDA-WASDE March 8, 2023
Cotton
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
May 2023 cotton futures closed down 0.15 cents at 82.62 with a trading range for the day of 82.16 to 83.48 cents. December 2023 cotton futures closed down 0.32 cents at 83.21 cents with a trading range for the day of 82.81 to 83.98 cents. Cotton’s demand problem was amplified by the uncertainty created by concerns over financial markets.
USDA Summary
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts are unchanged relative to last month. The projected marketing year average price received by producers is also unchanged at 83 cents per pound.
The global 2022/23 cotton supply and demand forecasts this month include lower consumption and trade, and higher production and stocks. Beginning stocks are almost 900,000 bales higher as historical consumption estimates for China and Uzbekistan are updated to align with data from official and other sources. World cotton consumption in 2022/23 is 555,000 bales lower this month with reductions in Turkey, Pakistan, Indonesia, and Bangladesh. Projected imports are lower for each of these countries—and for China—while exports are lower for Brazil, India, and Argentina, with world trade totaling 785,000 bales lower. Production is more than 700,000 bales higher as larger expected crops in China, Australia, and Uzbekistan more than offset reduced prospects for India. At 91.1 million bales, 2022/23 world ending stocks are projected 2.1 million higher than a month earlier and 5.0 million higher than in 2021/22.
| 2017/18 | 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 Est. | 2022/23 Projected February | 2022/23 Projected March | 2022/23 Change from Previous Month | Change 2022/23-2021/22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | |||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 12.72 | 14.1 | 13.74 | 12.09 | 11.22 | 13.76 | 13.76 | 0 | 2.54 |
| Harvested (Million) | 11.1 | 9.99 | 11.5 | 8.22 | 10.27 | 7.44 | 7.44 | 0 | -2.83 |
| U.S. Average Yield (lb/acre) | 905 | 882 | 831 | 853 | 819 | 947 | 947 | 0 | 128 |
| Supply (Million Bales) | |||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 2.75 | 4.2 | 4.85 | 7.25 | 3.15 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Production | 20.92 | 18.37 | 19.91 | 14.61 | 17.52 | 14.68 | 14.68 | 0 | -2.84 |
| Imports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Supply | 23.68 | 22.57 | 24.77 | 21.86 | 20.68 | 18.44 | 18.44 | 0 | -2.24 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bales) | |||||||||
| Domestic | 3.23 | 2.98 | 2.15 | 2.4 | 2.55 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0 | -0.45 |
| Exports | 16.28 | 14.84 | 15.51 | 16.35 | 14.62 | 12 | 12 | 0 | -2.62 |
| Total Use | 19.5 | 17.81 | 17.66 | 18.75 | 17.17 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 0 | -3.07 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 4.2 | 4.85 | 7.25 | 3.15 | 3.75 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 0 | 0.55 |
| Foreign Stocks | 76.54 | 75.1 | 89.8 | 83.13 | 82.36 | 84.78 | 86.85 | 2.07 | 4.49 |
| Chinese Stocks | 37.99 | 35.67 | 36.9 | 37.79 | 38.56 | 37.44 | 39.44 | 2 | 0.88 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | |||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/lb) | $0.686 | $0.703 | $0.596 | $0.663 | $0.914 | $0.83 | $0.83 | $0.00 | -$0.08 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 22% | 27% | 41% | 16.8% | 22% | 30% | 30% | 0.00% | 8.66% |
| Chinese Stocks/Use | 93% | 90% | 112% | 92.2% | 114% | 104% | 110% | 5.56% | -4.70% |
USDA-WASDE March 8, 2023
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) 2022/23 Marketing Year – Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 86.11 | 115.09 | 39.58 | 110.11 | 39.6 | -0.07 | 91.15 |
| United States | 3.75 | 14.68 | 0.01 | 2.1 | 12 | 0.04 | 4.3 |
| Total Foreign | 82.36 | 100.41 | 39.57 | 108.01 | 27.6 | -0.11 | 86.85 |
| Central Asia | 2.37 | 5.2 | 0.05 | 3.92 | 1.42 | 0 | 2.28 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | 1.61 | 4.79 | 0 | 0.1 | 4.7 | 0 | 1.6 |
| Australia | 4.86 | 5.5 | 0 | 0.01 | 6.1 | -0.19 | 4.44 |
| Brazil | 11.84 | 13.3 | 0.02 | 3.2 | 7.7 | 0 | 14.25 |
| India | 8.6 | 24.5 | 1.7 | 22.5 | 2.2 | 0 | 10.1 |
| Mexico | 0.37 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.01 | 0.36 |
| China | 38.56 | 29.5 | 7.5 | 36 | 0.13 | 0 | 39.44 |
| E.U. | 0.3 | 1.57 | 0.56 | 0.58 | 1.5 | 0 | 0.34 |
| Turkey | 2.77 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 0.7 | 0.01 | 3.46 |
| Pakistan | 1.89 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 8.6 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1.44 |
| Indonesia | 0.46 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.36 |
| Thailand | 0.1 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| Bangladesh | 2.29 | 0.16 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 0 | 0.01 | 2.04 |
| Vietnam | 1.02 | 0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 1.03 |
| ROW | 5.32 | 5.69 | 3.84 | 6.6 | 2.61 | 0.01 | 5.62 |
USDA-WASDE March 8, 2023
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales): Current-Previous Month (2022/23)
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 0.87 | 0.72 | -0.86 | -0.55 | -0.78 | 0.01 | 2.07 |
| United States | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Total Foreign | 0.87 | 0.72 | -0.87 | -0.55 | -0.78 | 0.01 | 2.07 |
| Central Asia | -0.29 | 0.2 | -0.03 | 0.15 | -0.05 | – | -0.22 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | – | -0.02 | – | – | -0.03 | – | 0.01 |
| Australia | – | 0.5 | – | – | – | – | 0.5 |
| Brazil | – | – | – | – | -0.3 | – | 0.3 |
| India | – | -1 | – | – | -0.3 | – | -0.7 |
| Mexico | – | 0.05 | -0.05 | – | – | – | – |
| China | 1.25 | 1 | -0.25 | – | – | – | 2 |
| E.U. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Turkey | – | – | -0.1 | -0.3 | – | 0.01 | 0.19 |
| Pakistan | – | – | -0.2 | -0.2 | – | – | – |
| Indonesia | – | – | -0.1 | -0.1 | – | – | – |
| Thailand | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Bangladesh | – | – | -0.2 | -0.1 | – | – | -0.1 |
| Vietnam | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | -0.09 | -0.01 | 0.07 | – | -0.1 | – | 0.09 |
USDA-WASDE March 8, 2023
Soybeans
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
May 2023 soybean futures closed up 2 ¼ cents at $15.17 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $15.11 to $15.33 ¾. November 2023 soybean futures were down 2 cents for the day closing at $13.71 ½ with a trading range for the day of $13.68 ¼ to $13.83 ¾. Tight projected US ending stocks will continue to support prices even with the shift in export business from the US to Brazil.
USDA Summary
U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher exports, lower crush, and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Soybean exports are raised 25 million bushels to 2.02 billion based on higher-than-expected shipments through February. Soybean crush is reduced on a small reduction in domestic soybean meal disappearance combined with a higher extraction rate. With higher exports more than offsetting lower crush, ending stocks are reduced 15 million bushels to 210 million. If realized, ending stocks would be the lowest in seven years. With relatively strong domestic demand for soybean oil limiting export competitiveness, U.S. soybean oil exports are reduced 200 million pounds to a historically low 500 million. Higher domestic use and reduced production are offsetting, leaving soybean oil stocks unchanged this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price forecast for 2022/23 is unchanged at $14.30 per bushel. The soybean meal price is forecast at $465 per short ton, up 15 dollars. The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 66.0 cents per pound.
Global 2022/23 oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush, and stocks. Global oilseed production is reduced mainly on lower soybean and sunflowerseed production for Argentina partly offset by higher Australia rapeseed production. Soybean production for Argentina is lowered 294 million bushels to 1.213 billion on dry and hot weather conditions. Uruguay soybean production is also lowered 7 million bushels to 77 million.
Global oilseed trade is up on higher rapeseed and soybean exports. Rapeseed exports are increased for Australia and Ukraine, in line with higher imports for the EU and Pakistan. Soybean exports are higher for Brazil and the United States, and imports are higher for Argentina to partly offset production losses. Soybean imports are also raised for Iran and Turkey.
Global 2022/23 oilseed crush is lowered mainly on a slower-than-expected soybean crush pace for China and lower available soybean and sunflowerseed supplies for Argentina. Lower Argentina vegetable oil exports are offset by higher shipments of palm oil from Malaysia and sunflowerseed oil from Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine. Global soybean ending stocks are lowered 73 million bushels to 3.674 billion, with lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil, and the United States that are partly offset by higher stocks for China.
| 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 Est. | 2022/23 Projected February | 2022/23 Projected March | 2022/23 Change from Previous Month | Change 2022/23-2021/22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 89.2 | 76.1 | 83.4 | 87.2 | 87.5 | 87.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Harvested (Million) | 87.6 | 74.9 | 82.6 | 86.3 | 86.3 | 86.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 50.6 | 47.4 | 51.0 | 51.7 | 49.5 | 49.5 | 0.0 | -2.2 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 438 | 909 | 525 | 257 | 274 | 274 | 0 | 17 |
| Production | 4,428 | 3,552 | 4,216 | 4,465 | 4,276 | 4,276 | 0 | -189 |
| Imports | 14 | 15 | 20 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 0 | -1 |
| Total Supply | 4,880 | 4,476 | 4,761 | 4,738 | 4,566 | 4,566 | 0 | -172 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Crushing | 2,092 | 2,165 | 2,141 | 2,204 | 2,230 | 2,220 | -10 | 16 |
| Exports | 1,752 | 1,679 | 2,266 | 2,158 | 1,990 | 2,015 | 25 | -143 |
| Seed and Residual | 127 | 108 | 97 | 103 | 120 | 121 | 1 | 18 |
| Total Use | 3,971 | 3,952 | 4,504 | 4,464 | 4,340 | 4,355 | 15 | -109 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 909 | 525 | 257 | 274 | 225 | 210 | -15 | -64 |
| Foreign Stocks | 3,297 | 3,034 | 3,419 | 3,363 | 3,524 | 3,465 | -59 | 102 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Average Season Price ($/Bu) | $8.48 | $8.57 | $10.80 | $13.30 | $14.30 | $14.30 | $0.00 | $1.00 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 22.89% | 13.28% | 5.71% | 6.14% | 5.18% | 4.82% | -0.36% | -1.32% |
USDA-WASDE March 8, 2023
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2022/2023 Marketing Year – Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 3,638 | 13,784 | 6,077 | 11,759 | 13,637 | 6,188 | 3,675 |
| United States | 274 | 4,276 | 15 | 2,220 | 2,340 | 2,015 | 210 |
| Total Foreign | 3,363 | 9,508 | 6,062 | 9,539 | 11,296 | 4,173 | 3,465 |
| Argentina | 878 | 1,213 | 266 | 1,295 | 1,505 | 125 | 728 |
| Brazil | 988 | 5,622 | 28 | 1,938 | 2,072 | 3,406 | 1,159 |
| Paraguay | 7 | 367 | 0 | 127 | 132 | 235 | 8 |
| China | 1,154 | 745 | 3,527 | 3,380 | 4,163 | 4 | 1,260 |
| E.U. | 57 | 91 | 511 | 538 | 596 | 9 | 53 |
| S.E. Asia | 25 | 18 | 363 | 178 | 375 | 1 | 32 |
| Mexico | 11 | 7 | 235 | 239 | 241 | 0 | 12 |
| ROW | 243 | 1,445 | 1,131 | 1,843 | 2,213 | 393 | 214 |
USDA-WASDE March 8, 2023
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels): Current-Previous Month (2022/23)
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 6 | -289 | 49 | -142 | -194 | 34 | -74 |
| United States | – | – | – | -10 | -10 | 25 | -15 |
| Total Foreign | 6 | -289 | 49 | -132 | -184 | 9 | -59 |
| Argentina | – | -294 | 37 | -75 | -132 | -29 | -96 |
| Brazil | 3 | – | – | – | 2 | 26 | -25 |
| Paraguay | -1 | – | – | – | -2 | 4 | -3 |
| China | – | -2 | – | -73 | -73 | – | 72 |
| E.U. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| S.E. Asia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | 4 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 22 | 9 | -8 |
USDA-WASDE March 8, 2023
Wheat
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
May 2023 wheat futures closed down 10 ½ cents at $6.87 ½ with a trading range for the day of $6.84 ¼ to $6.99 ½. July 2023 wheat futures closed down 9 ½ cents for the day at $6.97 with a trading range for the day of $6.93 ¼ to $7.08. Minor changes to foreign estimates result in small month-over-month and year-over-year declines in projected ending stocks.
USDA Summary
The 2022/23 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price remains $9.00 per bushel.
The 2022/23 global outlook this month is for slightly smaller supplies, increased trade and consumption, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are lowered slightly as an increase in production nearly offsets a decrease in beginning stocks, which are lowered mostly on an increase for China 2020/21 feed and residual use. This reduction is based on an updated analysis of government old-crop wheat stocks auction data. Nearly offsetting this change, global production is raised 187 million bushels to 28.987 billion primarily on increases for Kazakhstan, Australia, and India. Production estimates for all three countries are raised on updated government data. Wheat production in Kazakhstan is now forecast at 603 million bushels, 88 million higher than last month, and the largest harvest since 2011/12. World trade is raised 37 million bushels to 7.859 billion as increases for Kazakhstan, Australia, and Brazil more than offset decreases for Argentina and India. Global use is forecast 73 million bushels higher to 29.145 billion, largely on increases in India food, seed, and industrial use and Kazakhstan feed and residual use. Global ending stocks are lowered 77 million bushels to 9.818 billion, as smaller stocks for China more than offset increases for Argentina, Kazakhstan, and Australia.
| 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 Est. | 2022/23 Projected February | 2022/23 Projected March | 2022/23 Change from Previous Month | Change 2022/23-2021/22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 47.8 | 45.5 | 44.5 | 46.7 | 45.7 | 45.7 | 0 | -1 |
| Harvested (Million) | 39.6 | 37.4 | 36.8 | 37.1 | 35.5 | 35.5 | 0 | -1.6 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 47.6 | 51.7 | 49.7 | 44.3 | 46.5 | 46.5 | 0 | 2.2 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,099 | 1,080 | 1,028 | 845 | 698 | 698 | 0 | -147 |
| Production | 1,885 | 1,932 | 1,828 | 1,646 | 1,650 | 1,650 | 0 | 4 |
| Imports | 135 | 104 | 100 | 95 | 120 | 120 | 0 | 25 |
| Total Supply | 3,119 | 3,116 | 2,956 | 2,587 | 2,468 | 2,468 | 0 | -119 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Food | 954 | 962 | 961 | 972 | 975 | 975 | 0 | 3 |
| Seed | 59 | 62 | 64 | 58 | 70 | 70 | 0 | 12 |
| Feed | 88 | 95 | 93 | 59 | 80 | 80 | 0 | 21 |
| Exports | 937 | 969 | 994 | 800 | 775 | 775 | 0 | -25 |
| Total Use | 2,039 | 2,087 | 2,111 | 1,888 | 1,900 | 1,900 | 0 | 12 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 1,080 | 1,028 | 845 | 698 | 568 | 568 | 0 | -130 |
| Foreign Stocks | 9,333 | 9,879 | 9,625 | 9,276 | 9,328 | 9,249 | -79 | -27 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $5.16 | $4.58 | $5.05 | $7.63 | $9.00 | $9.00 | $0.00 | $1.37 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 52.97% | 49.26% | 40.03% | 36.97% | 29.89% | 29.89% | 0.00% | -7.08% |
USDA-WASDE March 8, 2023
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2022/23 Marketing Year – Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 9,974 | 28,989 | 7,658 | 5,824 | 29,145 | 7,861 | 9,818 |
| United States | 698 | 1,650 | 120 | 80 | 1,125 | 775 | 568 |
| Total Foreign | 9,276 | 27,339 | 7,538 | 5,744 | 28,020 | 7,085 | 9,249 |
| Argentina | 86 | 474 | 0 | 2 | 230 | 239 | 92 |
| Australia | 126 | 1,433 | 7 | 184 | 312 | 1,047 | 207 |
| Canada | 134 | 1,243 | 22 | 165 | 351 | 919 | 130 |
| EU | 491 | 4,949 | 331 | 1,653 | 4,005 | 1,360 | 406 |
| Russia | 407 | 3,380 | 11 | 790 | 1,672 | 1,598 | 529 |
| Ukraine | 212 | 772 | 4 | 147 | 338 | 496 | 153 |
| Bangladesh | 48 | 40 | 184 | 7 | 246 | 0 | 26 |
| Brazil | 43 | 382 | 206 | 15 | 430 | 162 | 40 |
| China | 5,025 | 5,060 | 367 | 1,102 | 5,291 | 33 | 5,129 |
| Japan | 43 | 39 | 211 | 28 | 231 | 11 | 51 |
| N. Africa | 399 | 647 | 1,099 | 65 | 1,735 | 18 | 391 |
| Nigeria | 23 | 4 | 220 | 0 | 206 | 22 | 19 |
| Sel. Mideast | 366 | 647 | 853 | 124 | 1,443 | 25 | 398 |
| Southeast Asia | 199 | 0 | 988 | 310 | 955 | 42 | 190 |
| India | 717 | 3,821 | 4 | 220 | 3,876 | 202 | 464 |
| Kazakhstan | 55 | 603 | 73 | 73 | 257 | 386 | 88 |
| UK | 67 | 570 | 66 | 287 | 581 | 48 | 74 |
| ROW | 834 | 3,275 | 2,890 | 570 | 5,860 | 478 | 862 |
USDA-WASDE March 8, 2023
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels): Current-Previous Month (2022/23)
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -193 | 189 | 49 | 27 | 75 | 36 | -79 |
| United States | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Total Foreign | -193 | 189 | 48 | 27 | 74 | 36 | -79 |
| Argentina | – | 15 | – | – | 4 | -37 | 48 |
| Australia | – | 37 | – | – | – | 18 | 18 |
| Canada | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| EU | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Russia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ukraine | -1 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 |
| Bangladesh | – | – | -11 | – | -11 | – | – |
| Brazil | – | 18 | – | – | – | 18 | – |
| China | -184 | – | – | – | – | – | -184 |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| N. Africa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nigeria | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sel. Mideast | – | – | – | – | 4 | -4 | – |
| Southeast Asia | – | – | -15 | – | -7 | – | -8 |
| India | – | 37 | – | – | 51 | -15 | – |
| Kazakhstan | – | 88 | 18 | 18 | 24 | 55 | 28 |
| UK | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | -8 | -6 | 56 | 8 | 10 | -1 | 20 |
USDA-WASDE March 8, 2023
March 2023 Profitability Update
2022 Estimated Returns – Non-Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of the March 8, 2023 USDA WASDE report. For the table below, non-irrigated yields are the most recent Crop Production estimates for Tennessee: 130 bushels per acre for corn; 48 bushels per acre for soybeans; 73 bushels per acre for wheat; and 1,049 pounds per acre cotton. Yields across Tennessee varied tremendously in 2022. Prices used for grain and cotton sales are based on current Tennessee cash prices provided by USDA AMS: corn – $6.38/bu; cotton – $0.8222/lb; soybeans – $15.41/bu; and wheat – $6.72/bu. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). For corn, given the impact of the drought, indemnity payments from crop insurance and county ARC payments for the 2022 crop are likely. Costs shown below are based on the 2022 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Land cost was estimated as a cash rent at the USDA NASS state average of $104 per acre. Substantial variation in land costs exist in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2022 UT Crop Budgets. Rising input prices from December 2021 through August have increased costs substantially compared to initial estimates in the 2022 UT budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses returns over specified costs for corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing a -$178, -$155, $136, and $-3 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will also vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield – Crop Production Report (Tennessee) | 1,049 | 48 | 130 | 73 /40 |
| Harvest Price (as of 3/8/2023) | $0.82 | $15.41 | $6.38 | $6.72/$15.41 |
| Revenue | $862 | $740 | $829 | $1,107 |
| Variable Expenses | $705 | $356 | $742 | $749 |
| Returns Over Variable | $157 | $383 | $87 | $358 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $104 | $104 | $104 | $104 |
| Returns Over Variable and Land Costs | $53 | $279 | ($17) | $254 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $208 | $143 | $161 | $257 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($155) | $136 | ($178) | ($3) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.97 | $12.57 | $7.75 | $7.60/$13.87 |
2022 Estimated Returns – Irrigated
below, irrigated yields were estimated as: 230 bushels per acre for corn, 65 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, and 1,400 pounds per acre cotton. Prices used for grain and cotton sales are based on current Tennessee cash prices provided by USDA AMS: corn – $6.38/bu; cotton – $0.8222/lb; soybeans – $15.41/bu; and wheat – $6.72/bu. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2022 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Irrigation fixed costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and irrigation systems. Land cost was estimated as cash rent of $180/acre (USDA NASS state average for Tennessee). Substantial variation in land costs exist in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2022 UT Crop Budgets. Rising input prices from December 2021 through August 2022 have increased costs substantially compared to initial estimates in the 2022 UT budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing returns of $39, -$263, $123, and -$43 per acre net returns. Producers that priced production at higher market prices earlier in 2022 may have higher net returns. Additionally, producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Yield (lb or bu) | 1,400 | 65 | 230 | 85/55 |
| Harvest Price (as of 3/8/2023) | 0.8222 | 15.41 | 6.38 | $6.72/$15.41 |
| Revenue | $1,151 | $1,002 | $1,467 | $1,419 |
| Variable Expenses (includes energy cost) | $886 | $420 | $949 | $900 |
| Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre | $102 | $102 | $102 | $102 |
| Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR Costs | $163 | $479 | $416 | $417 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $180 | $180 | $180 | $180 |
| Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed Cost and Land Costs | ($17) | $299 | $236 | $237 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $246 | $177 | $197 | $280 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($263) | $123 | $39 | ($43) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $1.01 | $13.52 | $6.21 | $8.60/$13.29 |