Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook
The following is a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based on 2018 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2025 UT Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2023 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.
The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith.
August 12, 2025 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates
Corn
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
September 2025 corn futures closed down 13 ½ cents at $3.71 ½ with a trading range for the day of $3.68 ¾ to $3.84 ¾. December 2025 corn futures closed down 13 ¼ cents for the day at $3.94 ½ with a trading range for the day of $3.92 to $4.07 ¾. Record yield and substantially higher month-over-month supplies will continue to put downward pressure on corn prices. Futures prices are likely to fall below last year’s low of $3.85 and may press below $3.50 as harvest supplies intensify. The seasonal improvement of prices from November to March are also likely to be muted due to projected production.
USDA Summary
This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for sharply higher supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and larger ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2025/26 are 35 million bushels lower based on a slightly higher use forecast for 2024/25. For 2024/25, larger corn exports are partly offset by reductions in corn used for ethanol and glucose and dextrose. Corn production for 2025/26 is forecast at a record 16.7 billion bushels, up 1.0 billion from last month with a 1.9-million acre increase in harvested area and higher yield. If realized, this total would be 1.4 billion bushels more than the prior record set in 2023/24. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 188.8 bushels per acre, is 7.8 bushels higher than last month’s projection. Sorghum production is forecast up 24 million bushels to 391 million. The yield is forecast at 69.0 bushels per acre, slightly above last month’s projection while harvested area is up 0.4-million acres.
Total U.S. corn use for 2025/26 is forecast 545 million bushels higher to 16.0 billion. Feed and residual use is raised 250 million bushels to 6.1 billion based on a larger crop and lower expected prices. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is projected lower based on observed use during 2024/25. Corn used for ethanol for 2025/26 is raised 100 million bushels to 5.6 billion. Exports are raised 200 million bushels to a record 2.9 billion reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and expectations of relatively low world market prices. With supply rising more than use, ending stocks are up 457 million bushels to 2.1 billion and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2018/19. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 30 cents $3.90 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 24.9 million tons higher to 1.572 billion. This month’s 2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down reflecting cuts to the EU and Serbia that are partially offset by increases for Ukraine and Canada. For the EU and Serbia extreme heat and dryness in southeastern Europe during the month of July reduces yield prospects. Area is also lowered for the EU. Ukraine production is raised on greater area. Canada is higher reflecting an increase in yield expectations. Foreign barley production for 2025/26 is reduced with a decline for Uruguay.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2025/26 include higher corn exports for the United States and Ukraine but reductions for Serbia and the EU. Corn imports are raised for Mexico, the EU, Egypt, Colombia, and Turkey but lowered for Canada. Foreign corn ending stocks are down, reflecting declines for China, Indonesia, and the EU that are partly offset by increases for Ukraine and Egypt. Global corn stocks, at 282.6 million tons, are up 10.4 million.
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 Est. | 2025/26 Projected July | 2025/26 Projected August | 2025/26 Change from Previous Month | Change 2025/26-2024/25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 90.6 | 95.2 | 97.3 | 2.1 | 6.7 |
| Harvested (Million) | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 82.9 | 86.8 | 88.7 | 1.9 | 5.8 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 179.3 | 181 | 188.8 | 7.8 | 9.5 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,340 | 1,305 | -35 | -458 |
| Production | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,341 | 14,867 | 15,705 | 16,742 | 1,037 | 1,875 |
| Imports | 24 | 39 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Supply | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,729 | 16,655 | 17,070 | 18,072 | 1,002 | 1,417 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Feed and Residual | 5,671 | 5,486 | 5,842 | 5,675 | 5,850 | 6,100 | 250 | 425 |
| Ethanol | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,478 | 5,470 | 5,500 | 5,600 | 100 | 130 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 1,437 | 1,382 | 1,391 | 1,385 | 1,385 | 1,380 | -5 | -5 |
| Exports | 2,472 | 1,662 | 2,255 | 2,820 | 2,675 | 2,875 | 200 | 55 |
| Total Use | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,966 | 15,350 | 15,410 | 15,955 | 545 | 605 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,305 | 1,660 | 2,117 | 457 | 812 |
| Foreign Stocks | 10,858 | 10,638 | 10,666 | 9,840 | 9,051 | 9,006 | -45 | -834 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $6.00 | $6.54 | $4.55 | $4.30 | $4.20 | $3.90 | -$0.30 | -$0.40 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 9.24% | 9.92% | 11.78% | 9.28% | 10.77% | 13.27% | $0.02 | $0.04 |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 11,145 | 50,729 | 7,565 | 31,934 | 50,751 | 7,907 | 11,123 |
| United States | 1,305 | 16,742 | 25 | 6,100 | 13,080 | 2,875 | 2,117 |
| Total Foreign | 9,840 | 33,987 | 7,540 | 25,834 | 37,671 | 5,032 | 9,006 |
| Argentina | 109 | 2,087 | 0 | 441 | 614 | 1,457 | 126 |
| Brazil | 315 | 5,157 | 63 | 2,579 | 3,701 | 1,693 | 141 |
| Russia | 36 | 591 | 2 | 398 | 441 | 142 | 46 |
| South Africa | 49 | 650 | 0 | 280 | 559 | 75 | 65 |
| Ukraine | 30 | 1,260 | 0 | 213 | 249 | 1,004 | 37 |
| Egypt | 64 | 285 | 394 | 571 | 673 | 0 | 70 |
| E.U. | 245 | 2,283 | 866 | 2,272 | 3,067 | 98 | 230 |
| Japan | 50 | 1 | 610 | 480 | 610 | 0 | 51 |
| Mexico | 223 | 976 | 1,016 | 1,142 | 1,988 | 1 | 226 |
| SE Asia | 112 | 1,231 | 850 | 1,642 | 2,059 | 22 | 112 |
| South Korea | 82 | 4 | 453 | 368 | 457 | 0 | 82 |
| Canada | 63 | 602 | 83 | 374 | 594 | 83 | 70 |
| China | 7,644 | 11,614 | 394 | 9,409 | 12,637 | 1 | 7,014 |
| ROW | 817 | 7,247 | 2,809 | 5,668 | 10,022 | 457 | 736 |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) Current – Previous Month 2025/26
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -42 | 981 | 173 | 403 | 527 | 199 | 412 |
| United States | -35 | 1,037 | – | 250 | 345 | 200 | 457 |
| Total Foreign | -7 | -56 | 174 | 153 | 182 | -1 | -45 |
| Argentina | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Russia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| South Africa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ukraine | 18 | 59 | – | 4 | 4 | 59 | 14 |
| Egypt | 8 | – | 39 | 39 | 39 | – | 8 |
| E.U. | -4 | -79 | 59 | – | 4 | -20 | -8 |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | – | – | 39 | 39 | 39 | – | – |
| SE Asia | 1 | – | 4 | 20 | 20 | -2 | -13 |
| South Korea | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Canada | – | 12 | -8 | – | – | – | 4 |
| China | -39 | – | – | – | – | – | -39 |
| ROW | 10 | -48 | 40 | 50 | 76 | -39 | -10 |
Cotton
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
December 2025 cotton futures closed up 1.63 cents at 68.39 cents with a trading range for the day of 66.73 to 68.47 cents. March 26 cotton futures closed up 1.61 cents at 69.84 with a trading range for the day of 68.19 to 66.93 cents. Cotton futures prices were up tiple digits across the board due to decreases in U.S. acreage, U.S. production, and foreign stocks. It’s unlikely that today’s report will be sufficient to propel December futures above 70 cents, but it should assist in stabilizing the bottom of the market.
USDA Summary
The 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet for August reflects lower production, exports, and beginning and ending stocks, along with unchanged consumption and imports compared to last month. Planted area is lowered 8 percent to 9.3 million acres based on the NASS August Crop Production report. Harvested area is reduced 15 percent to 7.4 million acres as dryness in the Southwest raises the expected national abandonment rate from 14 percent to 21 percent. The national average yield for 2025/26 is raised over 6 percent to 862 pounds per harvested acre as higher abandonment in the Southwest results in the harvest of fewer lower-yielding dryland acres. The production forecast is reduced to 13.2 million bales, almost 1.4 million bales below the July forecast and 1.2 million bales lower than 2024/25. Exports are reduced 500,000 bales because of the smaller crop. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are reduced 100,000 bales following a corresponding increase in exports for 2024/25. As a result of these revisions, ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected at 3.6 million bales, down 1 million from last month, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 26.3 percent. With tighter domestic supplies, the projected season-average upland price for 2025/26 is raised this month to 64 cents per pound.
In the 2025/26 world cotton balance sheet, production, consumption, trade, and beginning and ending stocks are all lowered compared to last month. World production is forecast 1.8 million bales lower as a result of reductions for the United States, Sudan, Uzbekistan, and Mali that more than offset a larger crop in China. The forecast for world consumption is reduced over 100,000 bales as lower mill use in India, Bangladesh, and Turkey more than offsets an increase for China. World trade is reduced 1.1 million bales with projected exports lowered for the United States, Sudan, Mali, and small changes elsewhere. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are reduced over 1.7 million bales, largely reflecting higher 2024/25 consumption in China and Brazil. With lower beginning stocks and production, ending stocks for 2025/26 are reduced by over 3.4 million bales.
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 Est. | 2025/26 Projected July | 2025/26 Projected August | 2025/26 Change from Previous Month | Change 2025/26-2024/25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 11.21 | 13.75 | 10.23 | 11.18 | 10.12 | 9.28 | -0.84 | -1.9 |
| Harvested (Million) | 10.26 | 7.29 | 6.44 | 7.81 | 8.66 | 7.36 | -1.3 | -0.45 |
| U.S. Average Yield (lb/acre) | 820 | 953 | 899 | 886 | 809 | 862 | 53 | -24 |
| Supply (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 3.15 | 4.6 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 4.1 | 4 | -0.1 | 0.85 |
| Production | 17.52 | 14.47 | 12.07 | 14.41 | 14.6 | 13.21 | -1.39 | -1.2 |
| Imports | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Supply | 20.68 | 19.07 | 16.72 | 17.57 | 18.71 | 17.22 | -1.49 | -0.35 |
| Use and Stocks (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Domestic | 2.55 | 2.05 | 1.85 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Exports | 14.48 | 12.45 | 11.75 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 12 | -0.5 | 0.1 |
| Total Use | 17.03 | 14.5 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 14.2 | 13.7 | -0.5 | 0.1 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 4.05 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 4 | 4.6 | 3.6 | -1 | -0.4 |
| Foreign Stocks | 72.27 | 71.25 | 70.21 | 71.05 | 72.72 | 70.31 | -2.41 | -0.74 |
| Chinese Stocks | 38.06 | 33.36 | 36.72 | 35.79 | 37.07 | 35.02 | -2.05 | -0.77 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/lb) | $0.914 | $0.848 | $0.761 | $0.630 | $0.620 | $0.640 | $0.02 | $0.01 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 24% | 32% | 23% | 38% | 32% | 26% | -6.12% | -$0.11 |
| Chinese Stocks/Use | 115.3% | 88.5% | 94.4% | 101.7% | 101.6% | 93.4% | -8.17% | -$0.08 |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 75.05 | 116.62 | 43.58 | 117.99 | 43.59 | -0.23 | 73.91 |
| United States | 4 | 13.21 | 0.01 | 1.7 | 12 | -0.08 | 3.6 |
| Total Foreign | 71.05 | 103.41 | 43.58 | 116.29 | 31.59 | -0.15 | 70.31 |
| Central Asia | 2.87 | 4.79 | 0.2 | 3.98 | 1.42 | 0 | 2.46 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | 1.35 | 4.69 | 0 | 0.11 | 4.68 | 0 | 1.25 |
| Australia | 4.93 | 4.1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -0.15 | 4.18 |
| Brazil | 3.31 | 18.25 | 0.01 | 3.5 | 14.3 | 0 | 3.77 |
| India | 9.85 | 23.5 | 2.9 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 10.25 |
| Mexico | 0.24 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.35 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.19 |
| China | 35.79 | 31.5 | 5.3 | 37.5 | 0.08 | 0 | 35.02 |
| E.U. | 0.17 | 1.28 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 1.19 | 0 | 0.22 |
| Turkey | 1.3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 1 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Pakistan | 2.1 | 5 | 5.9 | 10.9 | 0.05 | 0 | 2.05 |
| Indonesia | 0.38 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.02 | 0 | 0.37 |
| Thailand | 0.09 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 |
| Bangladesh | 1.76 | 0.15 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 0 | 0 | 1.92 |
| Vietnam | 1.04 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1.04 |
| ROW | 5.87 | 5.75 | 4.99 | 7.74 | 2.75 | 0.00 | 6.1 |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) Current – Previous Month 2025/26
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -1.73 | -1.8 | -1.1 | -0.13 | -1.1 | 0.02 | -3.41 |
| United States | -0.1 | -1.39 | – | – | -0.5 | 0.02 | -1 |
| Total Foreign | -1.63 | -0.41 | -1.1 | -0.13 | -0.6 | – | -2.41 |
| Central Asia | – | -0.31 | – | -0.1 | -0.02 | – | -0.19 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | -0.06 | -0.14 | – | – | -0.15 | – | -0.06 |
| Australia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | -0.51 | – | – | – | – | – | -0.5 |
| India | 0.1 | – | -0.1 | -0.5 | – | – | 0.5 |
| Mexico | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| China | -1.05 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 1 | – | – | -2.05 |
| E.U. | -0.06 | – | – | – | -0.03 | – | -0.03 |
| Turkey | – | – | -0.2 | -0.2 | – | – | – |
| Pakistan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Indonesia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Thailand | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Bangladesh | – | – | -0.3 | -0.3 | – | – | – |
| Vietnam | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | -0.05 | -0.46 | – | -0.03 | -0.4 | – | -0.08 |
Soybeans
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
September 2025 soybean futures were up 21 cents for the day closing at $10.12 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $9.73 ¾ to $10.14 ¾. November 2025 soybean futures closed 21 ½ cents at $10.32 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $9.94 to $10.35. Increased domestic crush, driven by soybean oil demand, is a positive for prices, however Brazil’s dominance in the export market and potential planted acreage this fall will hold a lid on the soybean market. Overall, the report was supportive of soybean prices.
USDA Summary
The 2025/26 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes lower beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered 20 million bushels on an increase to crush and exports in the prior marketing year. Soybean production for 2025/26 is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million on a lower area partly offset by a higher yield. Harvested area is forecast at 80.1 million acres, down 2.4 million from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 53.6 bushels per acre is up 1.1 bushels from last month. With lower supply and the slow pace of export sales to date, exports are reduced 40 million bushels. Crush is unchanged at 2.54 billion bushels. U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025/26 is forecast unchanged at $10.10 per bushel. The soybean meal price is forecast at $280 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 53 cents per pound.
Global 2025/26 oilseed production is lowered 3.3 million tons to 690.1 million mainly on lower soybean, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed production. Global sunflowerseed production is lowered 1.2 million tons to 55.1 million on hot and dry weather conditions leading to lower yields for the EU, Ukraine, Turkey, and Serbia. Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2025/26 include lower production, exports, and ending stocks. Global production for 2025/26 is lowered mainly on lower production for the United States and Serbia. Exports are reduced for the United States but raised for Argentina and Uruguay. Imports are reduced for the EU, Iran, and Vietnam. Global ending stocks are reduced 1.2 million tons to 124.9 million on lower stocks for Argentina, the EU, Iran, Vietnam, and the United States.
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 Est. | 2025/26 Projected July | 2025/26 Projected August | 2025/26 Change from Previous Month | Change 2025/26-2024/25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 87.1 | 83.4 | 80.9 | -2.5 | -6.2 |
| Harvested (Million) | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.3 | 86.1 | 82.5 | 80.1 | -2.4 | -6.0 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 50.7 | 52.5 | 53.6 | 1.1 | 2.9 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 350 | 330 | -20 | -12 |
| Production | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,162 | 4,366 | 4,335 | 4,292 | -43 | -74 |
| Imports | 16 | 25 | 21 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 0 | -5 |
| Total Supply | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,447 | 4,734 | 4,705 | 4,642 | -63 | -92 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Crushing | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,285 | 2,430 | 2,540 | 2,540 | 0 | 110 |
| Exports | 2,152 | 1,980 | 1,700 | 1,875 | 1,745 | 1,705 | -40 | -170 |
| Seed and Residual | 107 | 113 | 119 | 99 | 110 | 107 | -3 | 8 |
| Total Use | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,105 | 4,404 | 4,395 | 4,352 | -43 | -52 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 274 | 264 | 342 | 330 | 310 | 290 | -20 | -40 |
| Foreign Stocks | 3,146 | 3,476 | 3,894 | 4,270 | 4,322 | 4,299 | -23 | 29 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Average Season Price ($/Bu) | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.40 | $10.00 | $10.10 | $10.10 | $0.00 | $0.10 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 6.14% | 6.13% | 8.33% | 7.98% | 7.05% | 6.66% | -0.39% | -$0.01 |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 4,600 | 15,667 | 6,829 | 13,511 | 15,620 | 6,887 | 4,589 |
| United States | 330 | 4,292 | 20 | 2,540 | 2,647 | 1,705 | 290 |
| Total Foreign | 4,270 | 11,375 | 6,809 | 10,971 | 12,972 | 5,182 | 4,299 |
| Argentina | 928 | 1,782 | 265 | 1,580 | 1,856 | 213 | 906 |
| Brazil | 1,327 | 6,430 | 6 | 2,131 | 2,289 | 4,115 | 1,358 |
| Paraguay | 16 | 404 | 1 | 114 | 121 | 283 | 17 |
| China | 1,598 | 772 | 4,115 | 3,968 | 4,887 | 4 | 1,594 |
| E.U. | 69 | 108 | 522 | 562 | 618 | 11 | 69 |
| S.E. Asia | 44 | 15 | 401 | 217 | 416 | 1 | 44 |
| Mexico | 20 | 10 | 246 | 250 | 253 | 0 | 23 |
| ROW | 269 | 1,854 | 1,255 | 2,148 | 2,533 | 555 | 289 |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) Current – Previous Month 2025/26
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 3 | -47 | -7 | 0 | -3 | -7 | -43 |
| United States | -20 | -43 | – | – | -3 | -40 | -20 |
| Total Foreign | 22 | -4 | -7 | – | – | 33 | -23 |
| Argentina | 18 | – | – | – | – | 29 | -11 |
| Brazil | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Paraguay | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| China | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| E.U. | – | -1 | -4 | – | – | – | -4 |
| S.E. Asia | – | – | -4 | – | – | – | -4 |
| Mexico | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | 4 | -4 | – | – | – | 4 | -4 |
Wheat
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
September 2025 wheat futures closed down 10 cents for the day at $5.05 with a trading range for the day of $5.03 ¼ to $5.15. July 2026 wheat futures closed down 9 ½ cents at $5.67 with a trading range for the day of $5.64 ¾ to $5.76 ¼. Wheat prices followed corn lower. Abundant U.S. supplies and trade/foreign market access uncertainty continue to provide headwinds for U.S. wheat markets.
USDA Summary
The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for slightly tighter supplies, reduced domestic use, higher exports, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower production, down 2 million bushels to 1,927 million on smaller harvested area only partly offset by a higher yield. The all wheat yield is raised 0.1 bushels per acre to 52.7. Production forecasts are decreased for Hard Red Spring and White, but increased for Hard Red Winter, Durum, and Soft Red Winter. Domestic use is lowered 5 million bushels on reduced food use, based primarily on the latest NASS Flour Millings Products report. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong early pace of sales and shipments, particularly for Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. The 2025/26 season-average farm price is reduced by $0.10 per bushel to $5.30 on a lower projected U.S. corn price and price expectation for wheat the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook for 2025/26 is for lower supplies, reduced consumption, higher trade, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are projected to drop 2.5 million tons to 1,069.6 million primarily on lower production for China, Brazil, and Argentina that is only partly offset by a larger forecast for the EU. In addition, smaller beginning stocks are forecast for several countries including Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, and the Philippines. Production in China is lowered 2.0 million tons to 140.0 million on National Bureau of Statistics data indicating smaller-than-expected yields. EU production is raised 1.0 million tons to 138.3 million, which would be the highest since 2021/22; several months of favorable weather conditions have improved quality and yield prospects primarily in Romania and Slovakia. Global consumption is lowered 1.1 million tons to 809.5 million, mainly on reduced feed and residual use for China, Indonesia, and the Philippines that is only partly offset by larger use in the EU. World trade is increased 0.5 million tons to 213.5 million primarily on increased exports by the United States. Projected 2025/26 global ending stocks are lowered 1.4 million tons to 260.1 million, the lowest since 2015/16.
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 Est. | 2025/26 Projected July | 2025/26 Projected August | 2025/26 Change from Previous Month | Change 2025/26-2024/25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 46.7 | 45.8 | 49.6 | 46.1 | 45.5 | 45.4 | -0.1 | -0.7 |
| Harvested (Million) | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.1 | 38.5 | 36.6 | 36.6 | 0 | -1.9 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.7 | 51.2 | 52.6 | 52.7 | 0.1 | 1.5 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 845 | 674 | 570 | 696 | 851 | 851 | 0 | 155 |
| Production | 1,646 | 1,650 | 1,804 | 1,971 | 1,929 | 1,927 | -2 | -44 |
| Imports | 96 | 122 | 138 | 149 | 120 | 120 | 0 | -29 |
| Total Supply | 2,588 | 2,446 | 2,511 | 2,817 | 2,899 | 2,898 | -1 | 81 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Food | 971 | 972 | 961 | 969 | 977 | 972 | -5 | 3 |
| Seed | 58 | 68 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
| Feed | 88 | 74 | 86 | 109 | 120 | 120 | 0 | 11 |
| Exports | 796 | 762 | 706 | 826 | 850 | 875 | 25 | 49 |
| Total Use | 1,913 | 1,876 | 1,815 | 1,966 | 2,009 | 2,029 | 20 | 63 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 674 | 570 | 696 | 851 | 890 | 869 | -21 | 18 |
| Foreign Stocks | 9,345 | 9,550 | 9,222 | 8,802 | 8,719 | 8,688 | -31 | -114 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $7.63 | $8.83 | $6.96 | $5.52 | $5.40 | $5.30 | -$0.10 | -$0.22 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 35.23% | 30.38% | 38.35% | 42.54% | 44.30% | 42.83% | -1.47% | 0.3% |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 9,653 | 29,648 | 7,696 | 5,690 | 29,745 | 7,846 | 9,556 |
| United States | 851 | 1,927 | 120 | 120 | 1,154 | 875 | 869 |
| Total Foreign | 8,802 | 27,721 | 7,576 | 5,570 | 28,591 | 6,971 | 8,688 |
| Argentina | 182 | 724 | 0 | 11 | 268 | 478 | 160 |
| Australia | 156 | 1,139 | 8 | 169 | 298 | 845 | 161 |
| Canada | 134 | 1,286 | 22 | 129 | 322 | 992 | 128 |
| EU | 454 | 5,080 | 239 | 1,745 | 4,115 | 1,194 | 463 |
| Russia | 389 | 3,068 | 11 | 588 | 1,433 | 1,690 | 345 |
| Ukraine | 34 | 808 | 4 | 73 | 243 | 570 | 34 |
| Bangladesh | 29 | 37 | 246 | 11 | 283 | 0 | 29 |
| Brazil | 80 | 276 | 257 | 18 | 445 | 92 | 76 |
| China | 4,695 | 5,144 | 220 | 1,139 | 5,438 | 37 | 4,585 |
| Japan | 43 | 40 | 200 | 26 | 228 | 12 | 43 |
| N. Africa | 389 | 645 | 1,185 | 50 | 1,705 | 78 | 436 |
| Nigeria | 25 | 5 | 235 | 0 | 228 | 15 | 22 |
| Sel. Mideast | 465 | 727 | 742 | 102 | 1,480 | 37 | 417 |
| SE Asia | 147 | 0 | 1,128 | 369 | 1,067 | 49 | 158 |
| India | 441 | 4,318 | 9 | 239 | 4,134 | 9 | 625 |
| Kazakhstan | 148 | 570 | 18 | 110 | 299 | 294 | 142 |
| UK | 103 | 459 | 118 | 265 | 570 | 22 | 89 |
| ROW | 888 | 3,396 | 2,932 | 525 | 6,036 | 557 | 774 |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) Current – Previous Month 2025/26
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -33 | -61 | 23 | -47 | -40 | 17 | -53 |
| United States | – | -1 | – | – | -5 | 25 | -22 |
| Total Foreign | -32 | -59 | 23 | -47 | -35 | -7 | -31 |
| Argentina | – | -11 | – | – | – | – | -11 |
| Australia | – | – | 1 | – | – | – | 1 |
| Canada | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| EU | – | 37 | – | 37 | 37 | – | – |
| Russia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ukraine | -24 | – | – | – | – | – | -24 |
| Bangladesh | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | – | -18 | 11 | – | – | -7 | – |
| China | 7 | -73 | – | -73 | -73 | – | 7 |
| Japan | 2 | – | – | – | – | 1 | 1 |
| N. Africa | -6 | – | – | – | -6 | – | – |
| Nigeria | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sel. Mideast | -10 | – | – | – | -4 | – | -7 |
| SE Asia | 1 | – | -11 | -28 | -15 | – | 4 |
| India | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Kazakhstan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| UK | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | -2 | 7 | 22 | 17 | 25 | -1 | -3 |
Profitability Update
2025 Estimated Returns – Non-Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of August 12, 2025, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, non-irrigated yields are trendline average yields for Tennessee. Prices used for grain, oilseeds, and cotton are based on current Tennessee harvest cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2025 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Land cost was estimated as a cash rent at the USDA NASS state average for non-irrigated cropland of $117 per acre. Substantial variation in land costs exists in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2025 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on trendline yields, harvest prices, and expenses returns over specified costs for corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing -$185, -$227, -$84, and -$142 per acre net returns, down from last month’s estimates. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will also vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield – Crop Production Report (Tennessee) | 1,061 | 50 | 182 | 73/45 |
| Current Harvest Price (as of 8/12/2025) | $0.67 | $10.04 | $3.68 | $4.65/$10.04 |
| Revenue | $711 | $502 | $670 | $801 |
| Variable Expenses | $616 | $320 | $572 | $566 |
| Returns Over Variable | $95 | $182 | $98 | $235 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $117 | $117 | $117 | $117 |
| Returns Over Variable and Land Costs | ($22) | $65 | ($19) | $118 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $205 | $149 | $166 | $260 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($227) | ($84) | ($185) | ($142) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.88 | $11.72 | $4.70 | $5.89/$11.79 |
2025 Estimated Returns – Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of August 12, 2025, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, irrigated yields were estimated as: 250 bushels per acre for corn, 65 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, 1,500 pounds per acre cotton, and 90 bushels of wheat and 60 bushels of soybeans for double crop wheat/soybeans. Prices used for grain and cotton sales are based on current Tennessee harvest cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2025 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Irrigation fixed costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and irrigation systems. Land cost was estimated as cash rent of $197/acre (USDA NASS state average for irrigated cropland in Tennessee). Substantial variation in land costs exists in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2025 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing returns of -$266, -$249, -$178, and -$282 per acre net returns, down from last month’s estimates. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Yield (lb or bu) | 1,500 | 65 | 250 | 90/60 |
| Current Harvest Price (as of 8/12/2025) | $0.67 | $10.04 | $3.68 | $4.65/$10.04 |
| Revenue | $1,005 | $653 | $920 | $1,021 |
| Variable Expenses (includes energy cost) | $731 | $374 | $714 | $751 |
| Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre | $100 | $100 | $100 | $100 |
| Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR Costs | $174 | $179 | $106 | $170 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $197 | $197 | $197 | $197 |
| Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed Cost and Land Costs | ($23) | ($18) | ($91) | ($27) |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $226 | $160 | $175 | $255 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($249) | ($178) | ($266) | ($282) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.84 | $12.78 | $4.74 | $6.52/$11.94 |