Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook
The following is a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based on 2018 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2023 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2023 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.
The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith.
December 10, 2024 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates
Corn
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
March 2025 corn futures closed up 7 ¼ cents at $4.49 with a trading range for the day of $4.40 ¾ to $4.50. December 2025 corn futures closed up 2 ½ cents at $4.41 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $4.38 ¼ to $4.42 ¼. Increased demand will help support prices. Both US and foreign ending stocks are projected to decline year-over-year.
USDA Summary
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for greater corn used for ethanol, larger exports, and lower ending stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion, based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of November. These data imply corn used for ethanol during the September to November quarter was the highest since 2017. Corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks are reduced 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast lower. The 2024/25 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is cut with declines for the EU, Mexico, and Indonesia partially offset by an increase for Ukraine. EU corn production is down reflecting reductions for Italy, Romania, Croatia, and Austria that are partially offset by increases for Poland, Spain, and France. Mexico corn production is reduced reflecting lower winter corn area expectations.
Corn exports for 2024/25 are raised for the United States and Canada but lowered for the EU. Corn imports are higher for Bangladesh, the EU, Iran, and Mexico but cut for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced based on declines for China, the EU, and Indonesia. Global corn stocks, at 11.669 billion bushels, are down 303 million.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected November | 2024/25 Projected December | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 90.7 | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 90.7 | 90.7 | 0.0 | -3.9 |
| Harvested (Million) | 82.3 | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 82.7 | 82.7 | 0.0 | -3.8 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 171.4 | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 183.1 | 183.1 | 0.0 | 5.8 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,919 | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,760 | 1,760 | 0 | 400 |
| Production | 14,111 | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,341 | 15,143 | 15,143 | 0 | -198 |
| Imports | 24 | 24 | 39 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 0 | -3 |
| Total Supply | 16,055 | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,729 | 16,928 | 16,928 | 0 | 199 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Feed and Residual | 5,607 | 5,671 | 5,486 | 5,807 | 5,825 | 5,825 | 0 | 18 |
| Ethanol | 5,028 | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,478 | 5,450 | 5,500 | 50 | 22 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 1,439 | 1,437 | 1,382 | 1,391 | 1,390 | 1,390 | 0 | -1 |
| Exports | 2,747 | 2,472 | 1,662 | 2,292 | 2,325 | 2,475 | 150 | 183 |
| Total Use | 14,821 | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,969 | 14,990 | 15,190 | 200 | 221 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,760 | 1,938 | 1,738 | -200 | -22 |
| Foreign Stocks | 10,294 | 10,858 | 10,634 | 10,668 | 10,035 | 9,932 | -103 | -736 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $4.53 | $6.00 | $6.54 | $4.55 | $4.10 | $4.10 | $0.00 | -$0.45 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 8.33% | 9.24% | 9.92% | 11.76% | 12.93% | 11.44% | -$0.01 | -0.32% |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024/25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 12,449 | 47,946 | 7,241 | 30,682 | 48,724 | 7,600 | 11,670 |
| United States | 1,761 | 15,143 | 25 | 5,825 | 12,715 | 2,475 | 1,738 |
| Total Foreign | 10,688 | 32,803 | 7,216 | 24,857 | 36,010 | 5,125 | 9,932 |
| Argentina | 161 | 2,008 | 0 | 472 | 642 | 1,417 | 110 |
| Brazil | 309 | 5,000 | 59 | 2,520 | 3,366 | 1,890 | 112 |
| Russia | 30 | 512 | 2 | 358 | 402 | 130 | 12 |
| South Africa | 32 | 669 | 0 | 268 | 535 | 110 | 56 |
| Ukraine | 62 | 1,043 | 1 | 138 | 175 | 905 | 25 |
| Egypt | 56 | 276 | 323 | 504 | 602 | 0 | 52 |
| E.U. | 285 | 2,283 | 768 | 2,205 | 2,980 | 98 | 258 |
| Japan | 51 | 1 | 610 | 480 | 612 | 0 | 50 |
| Mexico | 186 | 933 | 965 | 1,173 | 1,909 | 1 | 173 |
| Southeast Asia | 132 | 1,215 | 772 | 1,626 | 1,984 | 22 | 112 |
| South Korea | 76 | 4 | 465 | 374 | 467 | 0 | 78 |
| Canada | 79 | 604 | 87 | 394 | 614 | 83 | 72 |
| China | 8,318 | 11,495 | 551 | 9,094 | 12,322 | 1 | 8,042 |
| ROW | 911 | 6,760 | 2,614 | 5,252 | 9,398 | 467 | 780 |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels): Current-Previous Month 2024/25
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 79 | -59 | 20 | 113 | 322 | 126 | -303 |
| United States | – | – | – | – | 50 | 150 | -200 |
| Total Foreign | 79 | -59 | 20 | 113 | 272 | -23 | -103 |
| Argentina | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | 79 | – | – | 39 | 79 | – | – |
| Russia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| South Africa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ukraine | 4 | 12 | – | 16 | 16 | – | – |
| Egypt | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | 1 |
| E.U. | -9 | -31 | 20 | 28 | 24 | -31 | -13 |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | – | -31 | 20 | -8 | -8 | – | -4 |
| Southeast Asia | 5 | -16 | – | -20 | -4 | – | -7 |
| South Korea | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Canada | – | 6 | – | – | – | 8 | -2 |
| China | – | – | -79 | – | – | – | -79 |
| ROW | -1 | 2 | 59 | 57 | 166 | – | – |
Cotton
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
March 25 cotton futures closed down 0.47 cents at 69.48 with a trading range for the day of 69.25 to 70.17 cents. December 2025 cotton futures closed down 0.40 cents at 70.74 cents with a trading range for the day of 70.41 to 71.30 cents. Limited revisions leave the cotton supply and demand picture unchanged. Futures prices are likely to continue to trade between 69-74 cents.
USDA Summary
The only changes to the U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 are to production and ending stocks. Exports, imports, domestic use, and beginning stocks are unchanged. The December estimate for U.S. all-cotton production is revised higher to almost 14.3 million bales, an increase of 64,000 from last month. The national all-cotton yield estimate is raised 3 pounds to 792 pounds per harvested acre with higher yields in the Southeast and Delta regions and lower yields in the Southwest and West regions. Ending stocks are raised to 4.4 million, for a stocks-to-use ratio near 34 percent. The 2024/25 season average upland farm price is unchanged at 66 cents per pound. There are no revisions to the 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet.
For the 2024/25 world cotton balance sheet, production, consumption, and ending stocks are increased while beginning stocks are reduced. World trade is marginally higher. World production for 2024/25 is increased 1.2 million bales to 117.4 million, largely the result of a 1-million-bale increase for India’s crop. Larger crops also are projected for Argentina, Benin, and Brazil, while smaller crops are expected for Mali and Burkina Faso. World consumption is raised 570,000 bales due to increases in India, Pakistan, and Vietnam that more than offset a reduction for China. Projected exports are raised 80,000 bales as increases for Brazil, Benin, Cameroon, and Senegal more than offset reductions for Burkina Faso and Mali. Ending stocks are raised 267,000 bales as increases for Argentina, United States, and Pakistan more than offset reductions for Brazil. Beginning stocks are reduced by 428,000 bales, primarily due to a 500,000-bale reduction for India as its 2023/24 consumption is increased 500,000 bales.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected November | 2024/25 Projected December | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 12.09 | 11.21 | 13.75 | 10.23 | 11.17 | 11.17 | 0 | 0.94 |
| Harvested (Million) | 8.22 | 10.26 | 7.29 | 6.44 | 8.63 | 8.63 | 0 | 2.19 |
| U.S. Average Yield (lb/acre) | 853 | 820 | 953 | 899 | 789 | 792 | 3 | -107 |
| Supply (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 7.25 | 3.15 | 4.6 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Production | 14.61 | 17.52 | 14.47 | 12.07 | 14.19 | 14.26 | 0.07 | 2.19 |
| Imports | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.01 |
| Total Supply | 21.86 | 20.68 | 19.07 | 16.72 | 17.35 | 17.41 | 0.06 | 0.69 |
| Use and Stocks (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Domestic | 2.4 | 2.55 | 2.05 | 1.85 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0 | -0.05 |
| Exports | 16.35 | 14.48 | 12.45 | 11.75 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 0 | -0.45 |
| Total Use | 18.75 | 17.03 | 14.5 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 0 | -0.5 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 3.15 | 4.05 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 0.1 | 1.25 |
| Foreign Stocks | 83.15 | 72.27 | 71.25 | 71.01 | 71.45 | 71.62 | 0.17 | 0.61 |
| Chinese Stocks | 37.79 | 38.06 | 33.36 | 37.12 | 36.24 | 36.24 | 0 | -0.88 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/lb) | $0.663 | $0.914 | $0.848 | $0.761 | $0.66 | $0.66 | $0.00 | -$0.10 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 16.8% | 24% | 32% | 23% | 33% | 34% | 0.76% | 10.43% |
| Chinese Stocks/Use | 95.7% | 115.3% | 88.5% | 96.4% | 95.4% | 96.6% | 1.27% | 0.22% |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) 2024/25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 74.16 | 117.39 | 42.25 | 115.79 | 42.26 | -0.27 | 76.02 |
| United States | 3.15 | 14.26 | 0.01 | 1.8 | 11.3 | -0.09 | 4.4 |
| Total Foreign | 71.01 | 103.13 | 42.25 | 113.99 | 30.96 | -0.18 | 71.62 |
| Central Asia | 3.25 | 5.17 | 0.1 | 4.07 | 1.39 | 0 | 3.07 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | 1.29 | 4.71 | 0 | 0.1 | 4.58 | 0 | 1.33 |
| Australia | 4.2 | 5 | 0 | 0.01 | 5.4 | -0.18 | 3.97 |
| Brazil | 3.11 | 16.9 | 0.01 | 3.3 | 12.5 | 0 | 4.22 |
| India | 9.3 | 25 | 2.3 | 26 | 1.3 | 0 | 9.3 |
| Mexico | 0.24 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 1.5 | 0.15 | 0 | 0.24 |
| China | 37.12 | 28.2 | 8.5 | 37.5 | 0.08 | 0 | 36.24 |
| E.U. | 0.26 | 1.26 | 0.54 | 0.56 | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 |
| Turkey | 1.41 | 4 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 0.8 | 0 | 1.81 |
| Pakistan | 1.85 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 9.9 | 0.05 | 0 | 1.9 |
| Indonesia | 0.4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.39 |
| Thailand | 0.09 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.44 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 |
| Bangladesh | 1.71 | 0.15 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 0 | 0 | 1.76 |
| Vietnam | 1.03 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1.04 |
| ROW | 5.75 | 6.41 | 4.03 | 6.71 | 3.5 | 0.00 | 5.98 |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales): 2024/25 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -0.43 | 1.21 | 0.1 | 0.57 | 0.08 | -0.04 | 0.27 |
| United States | – | 0.07 | – | – | – | -0.04 | 0.1 |
| Total Foreign | -0.43 | 1.14 | 0.1 | 0.57 | 0.08 | – | 0.17 |
| Central Asia | 0.04 | – | – | – | – | – | 0.04 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | 0 | -0.1 | – | – | -0.07 | – | -0.03 |
| Australia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | – | 0.1 | – | – | 0.2 | – | -0.1 |
| India | -0.5 | 1 | – | 0.5 | – | – | – |
| Mexico | – | – | -0.1 | -0.05 | -0.05 | – | – |
| China | – | – | -0.5 | -0.5 | – | – | – |
| E.U. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Turkey | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Pakistan | – | – | 0.5 | 0.4 | – | – | 0.1 |
| Indonesia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Thailand | – | – | 0.03 | 0.02 | – | – | – |
| Bangladesh | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Vietnam | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| ROW | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.1 | – | – | 0.16 |
Soybeans
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
January 2025 soybean futures were up 4 ¾ cents for the day closing at $9.94 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $9.88 ½ to $10.00. November 2025 soybean futures closed up 5 cents at $10.09 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $10.02 to $10.11 ¾. Argentina’s production increase may be foreshadowing for future increases in South America, which would be negative for prices.
USDA Summary
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2024/25 is forecast at 131.2 million tons, up slightly due to an increase for cottonseed. Soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. Soybean oil production is raised from last month on a higher extraction rate. With higher soybean oil supplies and strong export commitments to date, exports are raised 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. Food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil is reduced 200 million pounds, leaving soybean oil ending stocks down slightly and similar to the 2023/24 marketing year. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.20 per bushel, down $0.60 from last month. The soybean meal price forecast is reduced $20 to $300 per short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast unchanged at 43 cents per pound.
Global oilseed production for 2024/25 is raised this month mainly on higher soybean production partly offset by lower rapeseed. Soybean production is raised 62 million bushels to 15.693 million on higher area for Argentina and Bolivia and higher yields for Canada. The global 2024/25 soybean outlook includes higher production, exports, crush, and ending stocks. Exports are raised for Canada and Bolivia on higher supplies, and imports are raised for Algeria and Zimbabwe. Crush is raised 37 million bushels to 1.506 billion for Argentina, leading to higher exports of soybean meal and oil. Soybean meal imports are raised for the EU, Algeria, Iran, and Venezuela.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected November | 2024/25 Projected December | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 83.4 | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 87.1 | 87.1 | 0.0 | 3.5 |
| Harvested (Million) | 82.6 | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.3 | 86.3 | 86.3 | 0.0 | 4.0 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 51.0 | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 525 | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 342 | 0 | 78 |
| Production | 4,216 | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,162 | 4,461 | 4,461 | 0 | 299 |
| Imports | 20 | 16 | 25 | 21 | 15 | 15 | 0 | -6 |
| Total Supply | 4,761 | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,447 | 4,818 | 4,818 | 0 | 371 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Crushing | 2,141 | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,287 | 2,410 | 2,410 | 0 | 123 |
| Exports | 2,266 | 2,152 | 1,980 | 1,695 | 1,825 | 1,825 | 0 | 130 |
| Seed and Residual | 97 | 107 | 114 | 123 | 113 | 113 | 0 | -10 |
| Total Use | 4,504 | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,105 | 4,348 | 4,348 | 0 | 243 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 470 | 470 | 0 | 128 |
| Foreign Stocks | 3,430 | 3,146 | 3,451 | 3,779 | 4,371 | 4,375 | 4 | 596 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Average Season Price ($/Bu) | $10.80 | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.40 | $10.80 | $10.20 | -$0.60 | -$2.20 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 5.71% | 6.14% | 6.13% | 8.33% | 10.81% | 10.81% | 0.00% | 2.48% |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024/2025 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 4,121 | 15,695 | 6,547 | 12,765 | 14,831 | 6,686 | 4,845 |
| United States | 342 | 4,461 | 15 | 2,410 | 2,523 | 1,825 | 470 |
| Total Foreign | 3,779 | 11,233 | 6,532 | 10,355 | 12,308 | 4,862 | 4,375 |
| Argentina | 885 | 1,911 | 220 | 1,506 | 1,786 | 165 | 1,065 |
| Brazil | 1,028 | 6,210 | 6 | 1,984 | 2,135 | 3,876 | 1,232 |
| Paraguay | 7 | 412 | 1 | 129 | 135 | 268 | 16 |
| China | 1,591 | 761 | 4,005 | 3,785 | 4,663 | 4 | 1,691 |
| E.U. | 42 | 105 | 536 | 559 | 624 | 11 | 48 |
| S.E. Asia | 26 | 17 | 363 | 175 | 361 | 0 | 44 |
| Mexico | 10 | 8 | 246 | 244 | 247 | 0 | 17 |
| ROW | 191 | 1,811 | 1,154 | 1,974 | 2,358 | 536 | 263 |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2024/2025 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -10 | 64 | 10 | 47 | 50 | 10 | 5 |
| United States | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Total Foreign | -10 | 64 | 10 | 47 | 50 | 10 | 4 |
| Argentina | – | 37 | – | 37 | 37 | – | – |
| Brazil | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Paraguay | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| China | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| E.U. | -6 | -2 | – | – | – | – | -7 |
| S.E. Asia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | -4 | 29 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 11 |
Wheat
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
March 2025 wheat futures closed up 3 cents at $5.61 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $5.53 ¾ to $5.63 ½. July 2025 wheat futures closed up 3 ¾ cents for the day at $5.77 with a trading range for the day of $5.69 ¼ to $5.79. US stocks declined 20 million bushels and global stocks increased 32 million, leaving the supply and demand picture mostly unchanged.
USDA Summary
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook is for slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, increased exports, and lower ending stocks. Imports are raised 5 million bushels to 125 million on a strong pace for Hard Red Spring. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million. White wheat exports are increased 15 million bushels to 210 million, on stronger-than-expected sales and shipments to East Asian markets. Exports for Soft Red Winter and Hard Red Spring are both raised 5 million bushels. Projected wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million, still up 14 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for lower supplies, consumption, and trade and slightly higher ending stocks. Supplies decline 22 million bushels to 38.963 billion, as larger beginning stocks are more than offset by lower global production. Production is forecast lower for the European Union, down 48 million bushels to 4.457 billion, on harvest data showing lower production for several member states. Brazil’s crop is also forecast lower on updated harvest data. Global trade is forecast down 37 million bushels to 7.852 billion bushels as reductions for EU and Russia exports more than offset higher U.S. and Ukraine exports. Exports are forecast down 37 million bushels to 1.727 billion for Russia, despite a strong start to the marketing year, as the imposition of an export quota is expected to constrain exports for the remainder of the marketing year. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are raised 11 million bushels to 9.476 billion but are still the lowest since 2015/16.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected November | 2024/25 Projected December | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 44.5 | 46.7 | 45.8 | 49.6 | 46.1 | 46.1 | 0 | -3.5 |
| Harvested (Million) | 36.8 | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.1 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 0 | 1.4 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 49.7 | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.7 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,028 | 845 | 674 | 570 | 696 | 696 | 0 | 126 |
| Production | 1,828 | 1,646 | 1,650 | 1,804 | 1,971 | 1,971 | 0 | 167 |
| Imports | 100 | 96 | 122 | 138 | 120 | 125 | 5 | -13 |
| Total Supply | 2,956 | 2,588 | 2,446 | 2,512 | 2,788 | 2,793 | 5 | 281 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Food | 961 | 971 | 972 | 961 | 966 | 966 | 0 | 5 |
| Seed | 64 | 58 | 68 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
| Feed | 93 | 88 | 74 | 85 | 120 | 120 | 0 | 35 |
| Exports | 994 | 796 | 762 | 707 | 825 | 850 | 25 | 143 |
| Total Use | 2,111 | 1,913 | 1,876 | 1,815 | 1,973 | 1,998 | 25 | 183 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 845 | 674 | 570 | 696 | 815 | 795 | -20 | 99 |
| Foreign Stocks | 9,676 | 9,345 | 9,499 | 9,129 | 8,649 | 8,681 | 32 | -448 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $5.05 | $7.63 | $8.83 | $6.96 | $5.60 | $5.60 | $0.00 | -$1.36 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 40.03% | 35.23% | 30.38% | 38.35% | 41.31% | 39.79% | -1.52% | 1.44% |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024-25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 9,826 | 29,136 | 7,700 | 5,607 | 29,486 | 7,850 | 9,475 |
| United States | 696 | 1,971 | 125 | 120 | 1,148 | 850 | 795 |
| Total Foreign | 9,129 | 27,165 | 7,575 | 5,487 | 28,338 | 7,000 | 8,681 |
| Argentina | 168 | 643 | 0 | 9 | 259 | 423 | 130 |
| Australia | 106 | 1,176 | 7 | 147 | 276 | 919 | 95 |
| Canada | 166 | 1,285 | 20 | 165 | 353 | 955 | 163 |
| European Union | 570 | 4,457 | 423 | 1,635 | 3,996 | 1,066 | 388 |
| Russia | 430 | 2,995 | 11 | 570 | 1,405 | 1,727 | 303 |
| Ukraine | 26 | 841 | 3 | 62 | 235 | 606 | 29 |
| Bangladesh | 40 | 40 | 254 | 9 | 292 | 0 | 42 |
| Brazil | 62 | 298 | 228 | 18 | 437 | 99 | 51 |
| China | 4,942 | 5,144 | 404 | 1,213 | 5,548 | 37 | 4,905 |
| Japan | 40 | 40 | 198 | 24 | 226 | 11 | 41 |
| N. Africa | 407 | 589 | 1,190 | 53 | 1,716 | 77 | 394 |
| Nigeria | 16 | 4 | 202 | 0 | 184 | 14 | 25 |
| Sel. Mideast | 470 | 823 | 661 | 119 | 1,482 | 30 | 443 |
| Southeast Asia | 172 | 0 | 1,104 | 366 | 1,054 | 47 | 175 |
| India | 276 | 4,163 | 7 | 220 | 4,124 | 9 | 312 |
| Kazakhstan | 122 | 661 | 18 | 110 | 298 | 367 | 137 |
| United Kingdom | 119 | 406 | 118 | 239 | 533 | 18 | 91 |
| ROW | 998 | 3,601 | 2,725 | 527 | 5,921 | 595 | 957 |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2024/2025 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 43 | -65 | -17 | -11 | -35 | -37 | 11 |
| United States | – | – | 5 | – | – | 25 | -20 |
| Total Foreign | 42 | -65 | -22 | -11 | -35 | -62 | 31 |
| Argentina | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Australia | -6 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 |
| Canada | -2 | -1 | – | – | – | – | -4 |
| European Union | 28 | -48 | – | – | – | -37 | 17 |
| Russia | – | – | – | – | – | -37 | 37 |
| Ukraine | – | – | – | -11 | -11 | 18 | -7 |
| Bangladesh | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | – | -15 | 7 | – | – | -7 | – |
| China | – | – | -18 | – | – | – | -18 |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| N. Africa | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | 1 |
| Nigeria | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sel. Mideast | 4 | – | -15 | – | -6 | – | -4 |
| Southeast Asia | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 4 |
| India | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Kazakhstan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| United Kingdom | -14 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 |
| ROW | 28 | -1 | 4 | – | -18 | – | 27 |
Profitability Update
2024 Estimated Returns – Non-Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of the December 10, 2024, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, non-irrigated yields are average yields for Tennessee from the USDA Crop Production Report. Prices used for grain, oilseeds, and cotton are based on current Tennessee cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2024 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Land cost was estimated as a cash rent at the USDA NASS state average for non-irrigated cropland of $117 per acre. Substantial variation in land costs exist in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2024 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses returns over specified costs for corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing a -$118, -$205, -$127, and -$169 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will also vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield – Crop Production Report (Tennessee) | 1,046 | 45 | 153 | 75/40 |
| Current Price (as of 12/10/2024) | $0.70 | $10.12 | $4.52 | $5.37/$10.12 |
| Revenue | $732 | $455 | $692 | $808 |
| Variable Expenses | $610 | $305 | $520 | $590 |
| Returns Over Variable | $122 | $150 | $172 | $218 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $117 | $117 | $117 | $117 |
| Returns Over Variable and Land Costs | $5 | $33 | $55 | $101 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $210 | $160 | $173 | $270 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($205) | ($127) | ($118) | ($169) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.90 | $12.93 | $5.29 | $6.43/$12.21 |
2024 Estimated Returns – Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of the December 10, 2024, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, irrigated yields were estimated as: 240 bushels per acre for corn, 65 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, 1,450 pounds per acre cotton, and 85 bushels of wheat and 60 bushels of soybeans for double crop wheat/soybeans. Prices used for grain and cotton sales are based on current Tennessee harvest cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2024 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Irrigation fixed costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and irrigation systems. Land cost was estimated as cash rent of $197/acre (USDA NASS state average for irrigated cropland in Tennessee). Substantial variation in land costs exists in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2024 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing returns of -$113, -$242, -$182, and -$208 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Yield (lb or bu) | 1,450 | 65 | 240 | 85/60 |
| Current Price (as of 12/10/2024) | $0.70 | $10.12 | $4.52 | $5.37/$10.12 |
| Revenue | $1,015 | $658 | $1,085 | $1,064 |
| Variable Expenses (includes energy cost) | $735 | $380 | $720 | $720 |
| Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre | $100 | $100 | $100 | $100 |
| Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR Costs | $180 | $178 | $265 | $244 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $197 | $197 | $197 | $197 |
| Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed Cost and Land Costs | ($17) | ($19) | $68 | $47 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $225 | $163 | $181 | $255 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($242) | ($182) | ($113) | ($208) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.87 | $12.92 | $4.99 | $7.48/$10.60 |