Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook
The following is a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based on 2018 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2023 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2023 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.
The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith.
February 11, 2025 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates
Corn
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
March 2025 corn futures closed down 7 ½ cents at $4.84 with a trading range for the day of $4.83 ¼ to $4.97. December 2025 corn futures closed down 1 cent at $4.70 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $4.69 to $4.74. The outlook for old crop corn prices remains very strong with futures breaking above $5.00. It will be interesting to see how far new crop corn prices can increase before increased 2025 U.S. corn acres planted provides resistance.
USDA Summary
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn supply and use outlook is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price is raised 10 cents to $4.35 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast lower. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, trade, and ending stocks.
Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for Argentina and Brazil. Production is reduced for Argentina reflecting a cut in yield, as heat and dryness during January and into early February reduce yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas. For Brazil, the corn production forecast is reduced as slow second-crop planting progress in the Center-West lowers yield prospects.
Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include smaller projected corn exports for Brazil, Ukraine, and South Africa. Corn imports are cut for China but raised for Vietnam and Chile. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced reflecting a reduction for China. Global corn ending stocks, at 11.429 billion bushels, are down 118 million.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected January | 2024/25 Projected February | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 90.7 | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 90.6 | 90.6 | 0.0 | -4.0 |
| Harvested (Million) | 82.3 | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 82.9 | 82.9 | 0.0 | -3.6 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 171.4 | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 179.3 | 179.3 | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,919 | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,763 | 0 | 403 |
| Production | 14,111 | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,341 | 14,867 | 14,867 | 0 | -474 |
| Imports | 24 | 24 | 39 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 0 | -3 |
| Total Supply | 16,055 | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,729 | 16,655 | 16,655 | 0 | -74 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Feed and Residual | 5,607 | 5,671 | 5,486 | 5,805 | 5,775 | 5,775 | 0 | -30 |
| Ethanol | 5,028 | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,478 | 5,500 | 5,500 | 0 | 22 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 1,439 | 1,437 | 1,382 | 1,390 | 1,390 | 1,390 | 0 | 0 |
| Exports | 2,747 | 2,472 | 1,662 | 2,292 | 2,450 | 2,450 | 0 | 158 |
| Total Use | 14,821 | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,966 | 15,115 | 15,115 | 0 | 149 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,540 | 1,540 | 0 | -223 |
| Foreign Stocks | 10,294 | 10,858 | 10,640 | 10,669 | 10,008 | 9,889 | -119 | -780 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $4.53 | $6.00 | $6.54 | $4.55 | $4.25 | $4.35 | $0.10 | -$0.20 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 8.33% | 9.24% | 9.92% | 11.78% | 10.19% | 10.19% | $0.00 | -1.59% |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024/25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 12,433 | 47,733 | 7,132 | 30,609 | 48,736 | 7,450 | 11,429 |
| United States | 1,763 | 14,867 | 25 | 5,775 | 12,665 | 2,450 | 1,540 |
| Total Foreign | 10,669 | 32,866 | 7,107 | 24,834 | 36,071 | 5,000 | 9,889 |
| Argentina | 122 | 1,968 | 0 | 394 | 563 | 1,417 | 110 |
| Brazil | 348 | 4,960 | 59 | 2,520 | 3,445 | 1,811 | 112 |
| Russia | 30 | 522 | 2 | 366 | 409 | 130 | 14 |
| South Africa | 32 | 669 | 0 | 272 | 543 | 102 | 56 |
| Ukraine | 42 | 1,043 | 1 | 157 | 195 | 866 | 25 |
| Egypt | 56 | 276 | 323 | 504 | 602 | 0 | 52 |
| E.U. | 285 | 2,283 | 768 | 2,205 | 2,980 | 98 | 257 |
| Japan | 51 | 1 | 602 | 472 | 604 | 0 | 50 |
| Mexico | 186 | 933 | 965 | 1,173 | 1,909 | 1 | 173 |
| Southeast Asia | 132 | 1,215 | 795 | 1,650 | 2,008 | 22 | 112 |
| South Korea | 76 | 4 | 453 | 366 | 459 | 0 | 74 |
| Canada | 79 | 604 | 87 | 378 | 610 | 83 | 76 |
| China | 8,318 | 11,610 | 394 | 9,094 | 12,322 | 1 | 7,999 |
| ROW | 912 | 6,777 | 2,659 | 5,284 | 9,421 | 468 | 778 |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels): Current-Previous Month 2024/25
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -65 | -74 | -78 | -33 | -20 | -86 | -119 |
| United States | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Total Foreign | -65 | -74 | -79 | -33 | -20 | -86 | -119 |
| Argentina | -39 | -39 | – | -79 | -79 | – | – |
| Brazil | – | -39 | – | – | – | -39 | – |
| Russia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| South Africa | – | – | – | 4 | 8 | -8 | – |
| Ukraine | -20 | – | – | 20 | 20 | -39 | – |
| Egypt | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| E.U. | -2 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Southeast Asia | – | – | 24 | 24 | 24 | – | – |
| South Korea | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Canada | – | – | – | -16 | -4 | – | 4 |
| China | – | – | -118 | – | – | – | -118 |
| ROW | -4 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 1 | -3 |
Cotton
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
March 25 cotton futures closed up 0.86 cents at 67.40 with a trading range for the day of 66.57 to 67.63 cents. December 2025 cotton futures closed up 0.52 cents at 69.89 cents with a trading range for the day of 69.53 to 70 cents. Cotton markets remain stuck in the mud, battling tepid demand, a high U.S. dollar, and competition out of Brazil. Prices are likely to continue trading below 70 cents unless demand improves or a substantial reduction in global acreage is projected.
USDA Summary
Changes to this month’s 2024/25 U.S. cotton balance sheet are minimal with domestic mill use reduced 100,000 bales and ending stocks raised by the same amount for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 39 percent. Production, beginning stocks, and exports are unchanged. The 2024/25 season average upland farm price projection is reduced to 63.5 cents per pound.
In the 2024/25 world cotton balance sheet, production and ending stocks are increased while beginning stocks are lowered this month. Global cotton consumption and trade are increased by nominal amounts. A one-million bale increase in China’s cotton crop accounts for virtually all the increase in world production as slightly higher production in Brazil is largely offset by declines in Argentina and Kazakhstan. Increases in consumption for Bangladesh, Pakistan and Vietnam are offset by declines for India and the United States. Small consumption changes elsewhere account for the minimal global increase this month.
Higher imports by Bangladesh, Pakistan and Vietnam are offset by lower imports by China, with small changes elsewhere. Ending stocks for 2024/25 are raised half a million bales as the increase in world production is partially offset by lower beginning stocks due to updates to the 2023/24 balance sheets for China and Uzbekistan.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected January | 2024/25 Projected February | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 12.09 | 11.21 | 13.75 | 10.23 | 11.18 | 11.18 | 0 | 0.95 |
| Harvested (Million) | 8.22 | 10.26 | 7.29 | 6.44 | 8.27 | 8.27 | 0 | 1.83 |
| U.S. Average Yield (lb/acre) | 853 | 820 | 953 | 899 | 836 | 836 | 0 | -63 |
| Supply (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 7.25 | 3.15 | 4.6 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Production | 14.61 | 17.52 | 14.47 | 12.07 | 14.41 | 14.41 | 0 | 2.34 |
| Imports | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.01 |
| Total Supply | 21.86 | 20.68 | 19.07 | 16.72 | 17.57 | 17.57 | 0 | 0.85 |
| Use and Stocks (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Domestic | 2.4 | 2.55 | 2.05 | 1.85 | 1.8 | 1.7 | -0.1 | -0.15 |
| Exports | 16.35 | 14.48 | 12.45 | 11.75 | 11 | 11 | 0 | -0.75 |
| Total Use | 18.75 | 17.03 | 14.5 | 13.6 | 12.8 | 12.7 | -0.1 | -0.9 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 3.15 | 4.05 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 0.1 | 1.75 |
| Foreign Stocks | 83.15 | 72.27 | 71.25 | 70.56 | 73.11 | 73.51 | 0.4 | 2.95 |
| Chinese Stocks | 37.79 | 38.06 | 33.36 | 36.72 | 37.52 | 37.42 | -0.1 | 0.7 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/lb) | $0.663 | $0.914 | $0.848 | $0.761 | $0.65 | $0.64 | -$0.02 | -$0.13 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 16.8% | 24% | 32% | 23% | 38% | 39% | 1.08% | 15.42% |
| Chinese Stocks/Use | 95.7% | 115.3% | 88.5% | 94.4% | 100.1% | 99.8% | -0.27% | 5.39% |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) 2024/25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 73.71 | 120.46 | 42.47 | 115.95 | 42.51 | -0.22 | 78.41 |
| United States | 3.15 | 14.41 | 0.01 | 1.7 | 11 | -0.03 | 4.9 |
| Total Foreign | 70.56 | 106.05 | 42.47 | 114.25 | 31.51 | -0.19 | 73.51 |
| Central Asia | 3.2 | 5.14 | 0.1 | 4.07 | 1.41 | 0 | 2.96 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | 1.29 | 4.71 | 0 | 0.1 | 4.58 | 0 | 1.33 |
| Australia | 4.2 | 5.4 | 0 | 0.01 | 5.5 | -0.19 | 4.28 |
| Brazil | 3.11 | 17 | 0.01 | 3.3 | 12.8 | 0 | 4.02 |
| India | 9.3 | 25 | 2.6 | 25.5 | 1.4 | 0 | 10 |
| Mexico | 0.24 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 1.45 | 0.15 | 0 | 0.24 |
| China | 36.72 | 31 | 7.3 | 37.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 37.42 |
| E.U. | 0.26 | 1.26 | 0.54 | 0.56 | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 |
| Turkey | 1.41 | 4 | 4.2 | 7 | 0.85 | 0 | 1.76 |
| Pakistan | 1.85 | 5.2 | 5 | 10 | 0.05 | 0 | 2 |
| Indonesia | 0.4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.39 |
| Thailand | 0.09 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.44 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 |
| Bangladesh | 1.71 | 0.15 | 8 | 8.1 | 0 | 0 | 1.76 |
| Vietnam | 1.03 | 0 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 0 | 0 | 1.04 |
| ROW | 5.75 | 6.36 | 4.1 | 6.82 | 3.46 | 0.00 | 5.94 |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales): 2024/25 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -0.45 | 1.01 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.5 |
| United States | – | – | – | -0.1 | – | – | 0.1 |
| Total Foreign | -0.45 | 1.02 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.03 | – | 0.4 |
| Central Asia | -0.05 | -0.03 | – | – | 0.02 | – | -0.11 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Australia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | 0.1 |
| India | – | – | – | -0.5 | – | – | 0.5 |
| Mexico | – | – | -0.05 | -0.05 | – | – | – |
| China | -0.4 | 1 | -0.7 | – | – | – | -0.1 |
| E.U. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Turkey | – | – | – | – | 0.05 | – | -0.05 |
| Pakistan | – | – | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | 0.1 |
| Indonesia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Thailand | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Bangladesh | – | – | 0.2 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| Vietnam | – | – | 0.3 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
| ROW | – | -0.06 | 0.07 | 0.11 | -0.04 | – | -0.04 |
Soybeans
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
March 2025 soybean futures were down 6 cents for the day closing at $10.43 ½ with a trading range for the day of $10.41 ½ to $10.57. November 2025 soybean futures closed down 2 cents at $10.55 ½ with a trading range for the day of $10.53 ½ to $10.65 ½. Argentina production was lowered however Brazil remained the same as last month. Brazil’s crop will dictate if prices can push above $11.
USDA Summary
U.S. 2024/25 soybean supply and use projections are unchanged this month. The season-average soybean price is projected at $10.10 per bushel, down 10 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound, respectively.
Global 2024/25 soybean supply and use forecasts include lower production, higher use, and lower ending stocks. Production is reduced for Argentina and Paraguay due to persistent heat and dryness during January. Brazilian soybean production is unchanged at 6.21 billion bushels. Beneficial weather in the Center-West is boosting soybean prospects, but drier weather in the south accelerated soybean development at the expense of yields.
Global soybean crush is raised on higher crush for Brazil. The increase is driven by favorable crush margins, strong biofuel demand, and the pace of soybean meal exports to date. Partially offsetting is lower soybean crush and soybean meal exports for Paraguay on lower supplies. With negligible changes to soybean exports, global ending stocks are reduced 147 million bushels to 4.567 billion on lower stocks for Argentina and Brazil.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected January | 2024/25 Projected February | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 83.4 | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 87.1 | 87.1 | 0.0 | 3.5 |
| Harvested (Million) | 82.6 | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.3 | 86.1 | 86.1 | 0.0 | 3.8 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 51.0 | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 50.7 | 50.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 525 | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 342 | 0 | 78 |
| Production | 4,216 | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,162 | 4,366 | 4,366 | 0 | 204 |
| Imports | 20 | 16 | 25 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 0 | -1 |
| Total Supply | 4,761 | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,447 | 4,729 | 4,729 | 0 | 282 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Crushing | 2,141 | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,287 | 2,410 | 2,410 | 0 | 123 |
| Exports | 2,266 | 2,152 | 1,980 | 1,695 | 1,825 | 1,825 | 0 | 130 |
| Seed and Residual | 97 | 107 | 114 | 123 | 114 | 114 | 0 | -9 |
| Total Use | 4,504 | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,105 | 4,349 | 4,349 | 0 | 244 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 380 | 380 | 0 | 38 |
| Foreign Stocks | 3,430 | 3,146 | 3,456 | 3,791 | 4,337 | 4,189 | -148 | 398 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Average Season Price ($/Bu) | $10.80 | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.40 | $10.20 | $10.10 | -$0.10 | -$2.30 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 5.71% | 6.14% | 6.13% | 8.33% | 8.74% | 8.74% | 0.00% | 0.41% |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024/2025 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 4,133 | 15,460 | 6,586 | 12,856 | 14,925 | 6,687 | 4,569 |
| United States | 342 | 4,367 | 20 | 2,410 | 2,524 | 1,825 | 380 |
| Total Foreign | 3,791 | 11,094 | 6,566 | 10,446 | 12,400 | 4,862 | 4,189 |
| Argentina | 884 | 1,800 | 220 | 1,506 | 1,786 | 165 | 953 |
| Brazil | 1,028 | 6,210 | 6 | 2,058 | 2,208 | 3,876 | 1,158 |
| Paraguay | 11 | 393 | 1 | 114 | 121 | 268 | 16 |
| China | 1,591 | 759 | 4,005 | 3,785 | 4,663 | 4 | 1,689 |
| E.U. | 41 | 105 | 536 | 559 | 624 | 11 | 48 |
| S.E. Asia | 31 | 17 | 363 | 177 | 366 | 0 | 44 |
| Mexico | 10 | 8 | 246 | 244 | 247 | 0 | 17 |
| ROW | 195 | 1,802 | 1,189 | 2,003 | 2,387 | 536 | 264 |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2024/2025 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 4 | -129 | – | 22 | 24 | – | -148 |
| United States | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Total Foreign | 4 | -128 | – | 22 | 24 | – | -148 |
| Argentina | – | -110 | – | – | – | – | -110 |
| Brazil | – | – | – | 37 | 37 | – | -37 |
| Paraguay | 4 | -18 | – | -15 | -15 | – | – |
| China | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| E.U. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| S.E. Asia | 1 | – | – | – | 2 | – | – |
| Mexico | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | -1 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 |
Wheat
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
March 2025 wheat futures closed down 2 ½ cents at $5.77 with a trading range for the day of $5.75 ¾ to $5.88. July 2025 wheat futures closed down 2 ¾ cents for the day at $6.01 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $6.00 ½ to $6.11 ½. Global wheat ending stocks were revised down compared to last month. Total global stocks are projected down 364 million year-over-year.
USDA Summary
The 2024/25 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is for slightly higher domestic use that leads to lower ending stocks. Food use is raised 4 million bushels to 970 million, as wheat flour grind during the October-December quarter was up 2 percent from last year as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report. Projected ending stocks decrease 4 million bushels to 794 million but are 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.55 per bushel.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for slightly larger supplies and higher consumption but lower trade and ending stocks. Supplies are raised 22 million bushels to 38.996 billion, primarily on higher production for Kazakhstan and Argentina. Global consumption is increased 66 million bushels to 29.531 billion on higher feed and residual use for the EU, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Ukraine. World trade declines 110 million bushels to 7.679 billion with export reductions for the EU, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. The largest import change is a decrease for China of 92 million bushels to 294 million on a continued sluggish import pace. These would be their lowest imports in five years and China was the leading world wheat importer last year at 500 million bushels. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are lowered 48 million bushels to 9.465 billion, on a reduction for China that is only partly offset by increases for Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected January | 2024/25 Projected February | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 44.5 | 46.7 | 45.8 | 49.6 | 46.1 | 46.1 | 0 | -3.5 |
| Harvested (Million) | 36.8 | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.1 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 0 | 1.4 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 49.7 | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.7 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,028 | 845 | 674 | 570 | 696 | 696 | 0 | 126 |
| Production | 1,828 | 1,646 | 1,650 | 1,804 | 1,971 | 1,971 | 0 | 167 |
| Imports | 100 | 96 | 122 | 138 | 130 | 130 | 0 | -8 |
| Total Supply | 2,956 | 2,588 | 2,446 | 2,512 | 2,798 | 2,798 | 0 | 286 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Food | 961 | 971 | 972 | 961 | 966 | 970 | 4 | 9 |
| Seed | 64 | 58 | 68 | 62 | 64 | 64 | 0 | 2 |
| Feed | 93 | 88 | 74 | 85 | 120 | 120 | 0 | 35 |
| Exports | 994 | 796 | 762 | 707 | 850 | 850 | 0 | 143 |
| Total Use | 2,111 | 1,913 | 1,876 | 1,815 | 2,000 | 2,004 | 4 | 189 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 845 | 674 | 570 | 696 | 798 | 794 | -4 | 98 |
| Foreign Stocks | 9,676 | 9,345 | 9,508 | 9,132 | 8,712 | 8,670 | -42 | -462 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $5.05 | $7.63 | $8.83 | $6.96 | $5.55 | $5.55 | $0.00 | -$1.41 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 40.03% | 35.23% | 30.38% | 38.35% | 39.90% | 39.62% | -0.28% | 1.27% |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024-25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 9,829 | 29,167 | 7,525 | 5,640 | 29,532 | 7,679 | 9,464 |
| United States | 696 | 1,971 | 130 | 120 | 1,153 | 850 | 794 |
| Total Foreign | 9,132 | 27,195 | 7,396 | 5,520 | 28,378 | 6,829 | 8,670 |
| Argentina | 167 | 650 | 0 | 9 | 259 | 423 | 136 |
| Australia | 107 | 1,176 | 7 | 147 | 276 | 919 | 96 |
| Canada | 168 | 1,285 | 20 | 158 | 349 | 955 | 169 |
| European Union | 571 | 4,457 | 404 | 1,653 | 4,014 | 1,029 | 389 |
| Russia | 430 | 2,995 | 11 | 570 | 1,405 | 1,672 | 358 |
| Ukraine | 26 | 841 | 3 | 81 | 254 | 570 | 47 |
| Bangladesh | 40 | 40 | 254 | 9 | 292 | 0 | 42 |
| Brazil | 62 | 290 | 235 | 18 | 437 | 99 | 51 |
| China | 4,942 | 5,148 | 294 | 1,213 | 5,548 | 37 | 4,799 |
| Japan | 40 | 40 | 198 | 24 | 226 | 11 | 41 |
| N. Africa | 407 | 588 | 1,194 | 53 | 1,720 | 77 | 393 |
| Nigeria | 16 | 4 | 213 | 0 | 187 | 14 | 32 |
| Sel. Mideast | 468 | 823 | 654 | 111 | 1,475 | 30 | 441 |
| Southeast Asia | 164 | 0 | 1,111 | 375 | 1,065 | 47 | 164 |
| India | 276 | 4,163 | 7 | 220 | 4,124 | 9 | 312 |
| Kazakhstan | 127 | 683 | 18 | 118 | 305 | 367 | 155 |
| United Kingdom | 120 | 406 | 129 | 243 | 544 | 18 | 92 |
| ROW | 1,002 | 3,607 | 2,641 | 518 | 5,898 | 553 | 952 |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2024/2025 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 1 | 20 | -135 | 29 | 67 | -111 | -46 |
| United States | – | – | – | – | 3 | – | -3 |
| Total Foreign | 1 | 20 | -135 | 29 | 64 | -110 | -42 |
| Argentina | – | 7 | – | – | – | – | 7 |
| Australia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Canada | -1 | – | – | -7 | -4 | – | 3 |
| European Union | – | – | -18 | 18 | 18 | -37 | – |
| Russia | – | – | – | – | – | -18 | 18 |
| Ukraine | – | – | – | 7 | 7 | -18 | 11 |
| Bangladesh | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | – | -8 | – | – | – | – | -8 |
| China | – | – | -92 | – | – | – | -92 |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| N. Africa | – | – | 4 | – | 4 | – | – |
| Nigeria | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sel. Mideast | -2 | – | -7 | -7 | -7 | – | -2 |
| Southeast Asia | – | – | 7 | 7 | 7 | – | – |
| India | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Kazakhstan | – | 21 | – | 7 | 7 | – | 14 |
| United Kingdom | – | – | 11 | 4 | 11 | – | – |
| ROW | 4 | -1 | -39 | – | 20 | -37 | 6 |
Profitability Update
2024 Estimated Returns – Non-Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of February 11, 2025, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, non-irrigated yields are average yields for Tennessee from the USDA Crop Production Report. Prices used for grain, oilseeds, and cotton are based on current Tennessee cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2024 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Land cost was estimated as a cash rent at the USDA NASS state average for non-irrigated cropland of $117 per acre. Substantial variation in land costs exists in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2024 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses returns over specified costs for corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing a -$56, -$229, -$144, and -$156 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will also vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield – Crop Production Report (Tennessee) | 1,066 | 42 | 152 | 75/40 |
| Current Price (as of 2/11/2025) | $0.66 | $10.44 | $4.96 | $5.38/$10.44 |
| Revenue | $708 | $438 | $754 | $821 |
| Variable Expenses | $610 | $305 | $520 | $590 |
| Returns Over Variable | $98 | $133 | $234 | $231 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $117 | $117 | $117 | $117 |
| Returns Over Variable and Land Costs | ($19) | $16 | $117 | $114 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $210 | $160 | $173 | $270 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($229) | ($144) | ($56) | ($156) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.88 | $13.86 | $5.33 | $6.43/$12.21 |
2024 Estimated Returns – Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of February 11, 2025, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, irrigated yields were estimated as: 240 bushels per acre for corn, 65 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, 1,450 pounds per acre cotton, and 85 bushels of wheat and 60 bushels of soybeans for double crop wheat/soybeans. Prices used for grain and cotton sales are based on current Tennessee harvest cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2024 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Irrigation fixed costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and irrigation systems. Land cost was estimated as cash rent of $197/acre (USDA NASS state average for irrigated cropland in Tennessee). Substantial variation in land costs exists in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2024 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing returns of -$8, -$294, -$161, and -$188 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Yield (lb or bu) | 1,450 | 65 | 240 | 85/60 |
| Current Price (as of 2/11/2025) | $0.66 | $10.44 | $4.96 | $5.38/$10.44 |
| Revenue | $963 | $679 | $1,190 | $1,084 |
| Variable Expenses (includes energy cost) | $735 | $380 | $720 | $720 |
| Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre | $100 | $100 | $100 | $100 |
| Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR Costs | $128 | $199 | $370 | $264 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $197 | $197 | $197 | $197 |
| Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed Cost and Land Costs | ($69) | $2 | $173 | $67 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $225 | $163 | $181 | $255 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($294) | ($161) | ($8) | ($188) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.87 | $12.92 | $4.99 | $7.48/$10.60 |