Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook
The following is a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based on 2018 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2023 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2023 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.
The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith.
January 10, 2025 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates
Corn
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
March 2025 corn futures closed up 14 ½ cents at $4.70 ½ with a trading range for the day of $4.55 ¾ to $4.72 ½. December 2025 corn futures closed up 3 ¼ cents at $4.50 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $4.45 ¾ to $4.52 ¾. A massive 3.8 bu per acre decrease in average US yield created bullish fuel for the futures market. The result is the low end of the old crop price ratio has been moved higher. Nearby prices now have a chance at $5.00 in spring/summer.
USDA Summary
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, feed and residual use, exports, and ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at 14.9 billion bushels, down 276 million as a 3.8-bushel per acre cut in yield to 179.3 bushels is partially offset by a 0.2-million acre increase in harvested area. Total corn use is down 75 million bushels to 15.1 billion. Feed and residual use is reduced 50 million bushels to 5.8 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter as reflected by the Grain Stocks report. Exports are cut 25 million bushels to 2.5 billion reflecting lower supplies. With supply falling more than use, corn stocks are lowered 198 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 15 cents to $4.25 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast down. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, reduced trade, and higher ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, Ghana, and Russia. China corn production is raised to a record 11.61 billion bushels based on the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Corn production is higher for Russia based on the latest information from Rosstat.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2024/25 include lower corn exports for the United States and Brazil. Corn imports are raised for Turkey but lowered for China, South Korea, and Japan. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher mostly reflecting an increase for China. Global corn stocks, at 11.547 billion bushels, are down 122 million.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected December | 2024/25 Projected January | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 90.7 | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 90.7 | 90.6 | -0.1 | -4.0 |
| Harvested (Million) | 82.3 | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 82.7 | 82.9 | 0.2 | -3.6 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 171.4 | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 183.1 | 179.3 | -3.8 | 2.0 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,919 | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,760 | 1,763 | 3 | 403 |
| Production | 14,111 | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,341 | 15,143 | 14,867 | -276 | -474 |
| Imports | 24 | 24 | 39 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 0 | -3 |
| Total Supply | 16,055 | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,729 | 16,928 | 16,655 | -273 | -74 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Feed and Residual | 5,607 | 5,671 | 5,486 | 5,804 | 5,825 | 5,775 | -50 | -29 |
| Ethanol | 5,028 | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,478 | 5,500 | 5,500 | 0 | 22 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 1,439 | 1,437 | 1,382 | 1,391 | 1,390 | 1,390 | 0 | -1 |
| Exports | 2,747 | 2,472 | 1,662 | 2,292 | 2,475 | 2,450 | -25 | 158 |
| Total Use | 14,821 | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,966 | 15,190 | 15,115 | -75 | 149 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,738 | 1,540 | -198 | -223 |
| Foreign Stocks | 10,294 | 10,858 | 10,634 | 10,734 | 9,932 | 10,008 | 76 | -726 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $4.53 | $6.00 | $6.54 | $4.55 | $4.10 | $4.25 | $0.15 | -$0.30 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 8.33% | 9.24% | 9.92% | 11.78% | 11.44% | 10.19% | -$0.01 | -1.59% |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024/25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 12,498 | 47,807 | 7,210 | 30,641 | 48,756 | 7,535 | 11,548 |
| United States | 1,763 | 14,867 | 25 | 5,775 | 12,665 | 2,450 | 1,540 |
| Total Foreign | 10,734 | 32,940 | 7,185 | 24,866 | 36,091 | 5,086 | 10,008 |
| Argentina | 161 | 2,008 | 0 | 472 | 642 | 1,417 | 110 |
| Brazil | 348 | 5,000 | 59 | 2,520 | 3,445 | 1,850 | 112 |
| Russia | 30 | 522 | 2 | 366 | 409 | 130 | 14 |
| South Africa | 32 | 669 | 0 | 268 | 535 | 110 | 56 |
| Ukraine | 62 | 1,043 | 1 | 138 | 175 | 905 | 25 |
| Egypt | 56 | 276 | 323 | 504 | 602 | 0 | 52 |
| E.U. | 287 | 2,283 | 768 | 2,205 | 2,980 | 98 | 259 |
| Japan | 51 | 1 | 602 | 472 | 604 | 0 | 50 |
| Mexico | 186 | 933 | 965 | 1,173 | 1,909 | 1 | 173 |
| Southeast Asia | 132 | 1,215 | 772 | 1,626 | 1,984 | 22 | 112 |
| South Korea | 76 | 4 | 453 | 366 | 459 | 0 | 74 |
| Canada | 79 | 604 | 87 | 394 | 614 | 83 | 72 |
| China | 8,318 | 11,610 | 512 | 9,094 | 12,322 | 1 | 8,117 |
| ROW | 916 | 6,772 | 2,643 | 5,269 | 9,409 | 467 | 781 |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels): Current-Previous Month 2024/25
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 49 | -139 | -30 | -41 | 32 | -64 | -122 |
| United States | 3 | -276 | – | -50 | -50 | -25 | -198 |
| Total Foreign | 46 | 136 | -30 | 9 | 81 | -39 | 76 |
| Argentina | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | 39 | – | – | – | 79 | -39 | – |
| Russia | – | 10 | – | 8 | 8 | – | 2 |
| South Africa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ukraine | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Egypt | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| E.U. | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | 2 |
| Japan | – | – | -8 | -8 | -8 | – | – |
| Mexico | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Southeast Asia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| South Korea | – | – | -12 | -8 | -8 | – | -4 |
| Canada | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| China | – | 115 | -39 | – | – | – | 75 |
| ROW | 5 | 12 | 29 | 17 | 11 | – | 1 |
Cotton
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
March 25 cotton futures closed down 1.49 cents at 67.01 with a trading range for the day of 66.9 to 68.7 cents. December 2025 cotton futures closed down 1.04 cents at 68.86 cents with a trading range for the day of 68.7 to 70 cents. Global stocks increased 1.89 million bales compared to last month. Growing stocks and tepid demand will continue to keep prices trading between 66 and 72 cents.
USDA Summary
For the 2024/25 U.S. cotton balance sheet, production and ending stocks are increased while exports are reduced. Domestic use and beginning stocks are unchanged. The U.S. all-cotton production is revised upward 159,000 bales to 14.4 million as the national all-cotton yield estimate is raised 44 pounds to 836 pounds per harvested acre, reflecting a larger crop and lower harvested area. Most of the reduction in harvested area occurred in the Southwest while yields in numerous Southeast, Delta, and Southwest States are expected to be higher. Projected exports are lowered 300,000 bales to 11.0 million. Ending stocks are raised to 4.8 million bales for a stocks-to-use ratio of about 38 percent. The 2024/25 season average upland farm price is reduced to 65 cents per pound.
Global production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks are raised in the 2024/25 world cotton balance sheet while beginning stocks are unchanged. World production for 2024/25 is increased just over 2 million bales to 119.4 million, largely the result of a 1.8-million-bale increase for China’s crop. Larger crops are also projected for Australia and the United States while production in Pakistan is reduced. World consumption is raised 100,000 bales as increases in Bangladesh and Vietnam more than offset a reduction for Turkey. Projected exports are raised 225,000 bales as increases for Brazil, Australia, and India exceed the reduction for the United States. Ending stocks are increased almost 1.9 million bales as increases in China, the United States, Australia, and India more than offset the reduction for Brazil.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected December | 2024/25 Projected January | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 12.09 | 11.21 | 13.75 | 10.23 | 11.17 | 11.18 | 0.01 | 0.95 |
| Harvested (Million) | 8.22 | 10.26 | 7.29 | 6.44 | 8.63 | 8.27 | -0.36 | 1.83 |
| U.S. Average Yield (lb/acre) | 853 | 820 | 953 | 899 | 792 | 836 | 44 | -63 |
| Supply (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 7.25 | 3.15 | 4.6 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Production | 14.61 | 17.52 | 14.47 | 12.07 | 14.26 | 14.41 | 0.15 | 2.34 |
| Imports | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.01 |
| Total Supply | 21.86 | 20.68 | 19.07 | 16.72 | 17.41 | 17.57 | 0.16 | 0.85 |
| Use and Stocks (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Domestic | 2.4 | 2.55 | 2.05 | 1.85 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0 | -0.05 |
| Exports | 16.35 | 14.48 | 12.45 | 11.75 | 11.3 | 11 | -0.3 | -0.75 |
| Total Use | 18.75 | 17.03 | 14.5 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 12.8 | -0.3 | -0.8 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 3.15 | 4.05 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 0.4 | 1.65 |
| Foreign Stocks | 83.15 | 72.27 | 71.25 | 71.01 | 71.62 | 73.11 | 1.49 | 2.1 |
| Chinese Stocks | 37.79 | 38.06 | 33.36 | 37.12 | 36.24 | 37.52 | 1.28 | 0.4 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/lb) | $0.663 | $0.914 | $0.848 | $0.761 | $0.66 | $0.65 | -$0.01 | -$0.11 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 16.8% | 24% | 32% | 23% | 34% | 38% | 3.91% | 14.34% |
| Chinese Stocks/Use | 95.7% | 115.3% | 88.5% | 96.4% | 96.6% | 100.1% | 3.41% | 3.64% |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) 2024/25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 74.16 | 119.45 | 42.45 | 115.89 | 42.48 | -0.22 | 77.91 |
| United States | 3.15 | 14.41 | 0.01 | 1.8 | 11 | -0.03 | 4.8 |
| Total Foreign | 71.01 | 105.03 | 42.45 | 114.09 | 31.48 | -0.19 | 73.11 |
| Central Asia | 3.25 | 5.17 | 0.1 | 4.07 | 1.39 | 0 | 3.07 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | 1.29 | 4.71 | 0 | 0.1 | 4.58 | 0 | 1.33 |
| Australia | 4.2 | 5.4 | 0 | 0.01 | 5.5 | -0.19 | 4.28 |
| Brazil | 3.11 | 16.9 | 0.01 | 3.3 | 12.8 | 0 | 3.92 |
| India | 9.3 | 25 | 2.6 | 26 | 1.4 | 0 | 9.5 |
| Mexico | 0.24 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 1.5 | 0.15 | 0 | 0.24 |
| China | 37.12 | 30 | 8 | 37.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 37.52 |
| E.U. | 0.26 | 1.26 | 0.54 | 0.56 | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 |
| Turkey | 1.41 | 4 | 4.2 | 7 | 0.8 | 0 | 1.81 |
| Pakistan | 1.85 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 9.9 | 0.05 | 0 | 1.9 |
| Indonesia | 0.4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.39 |
| Thailand | 0.09 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.44 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 |
| Bangladesh | 1.71 | 0.15 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 0 | 0 | 1.76 |
| Vietnam | 1.03 | 0 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 0 | 0 | 1.04 |
| ROW | 5.75 | 6.42 | 4.03 | 6.71 | 3.5 | 0.00 | 5.98 |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales): 2024/25 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 0 | 2.06 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 1.89 |
| United States | – | 0.15 | – | – | -0.3 | 0.06 | 0.4 |
| Total Foreign | – | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.52 | -0.01 | 1.49 |
| Central Asia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Australia | – | 0.4 | – | – | 0.1 | -0.01 | 0.31 |
| Brazil | – | – | – | – | 0.3 | – | -0.3 |
| India | – | – | 0.3 | – | 0.1 | – | 0.2 |
| Mexico | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| China | – | 1.8 | -0.5 | – | 0.02 | – | 1.28 |
| E.U. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Turkey | – | – | -0.1 | -0.1 | – | – | – |
| Pakistan | – | -0.3 | 0.3 | – | – | – | – |
| Indonesia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Thailand | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Bangladesh | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| Vietnam | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| ROW | – | 0.01 | – | – | – | – | – |
Soybeans
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
March 2025 soybean futures were up 26 ¼ cents for the day closing at $10.25 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $9.96 ½ to $10.33 ½. November 2025 soybean futures closed up 17 ¼ cents at $10.31 with a trading range for the day of $10.09 ¼ to $10.39 ½. US soybean yield decreased 1 bushel per acre and global stocks decreased 128 million bushels. Overall the report was supportive for prices. Prices will continue to be sensitive to production estimates from South America.
USDA Summary
U.S. oilseed production for 2024/25 is down from the previous report. Lower soybean, peanut, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed crops are partly offset by higher cottonseed. Soybean production is estimated at 4.4 billion bushels, down 95 million led by decreases for Indiana, Kansas, South Dakota, Illinois, Iowa, and Ohio. Harvested area is estimated at 86.1 million acres, down 0.2 million. Yield is estimated at 50.7 bushels per acre, down 1.0 bushel. With lower production, slightly higher imports, and unchanged exports and crush, soybean ending stocks are projected at 380 million bushels, down 90 million. The soybean oil balance sheet adjustments include increased exports and lower soybean oil used for biofuel. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is projected at $10.20 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is increased $10 to $310 per short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast unchanged at 43 cents per pound.
Foreign 2024/25 oilseed production is lowered, mainly on lower rapeseed production for India, Russia, and Uruguay, and lower soybean production for Russia and China. Partly offsetting is higher sunflowerseed production for Russia and higher cottonseed production for China and Australia.
Global soybean exports are unchanged while global soybean crush is raised 70 million bushels to 12.835 billion. Crush is higher for Brazil on strong first-quarter soybean meal exports. The Iraq soybean balance sheet was also added to the database as soybean imports have risen over the past few years, which contributed to higher month-over-month global crush. Global soybean ending stocks are forecast at 4.718 billion bushels, down 129 million, mainly on lower stocks for the United States and Brazil.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected December | 2024/25 Projected January | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 83.4 | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 87.1 | 87.1 | 0.0 | 3.5 |
| Harvested (Million) | 82.6 | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.3 | 86.3 | 86.1 | -0.2 | 3.8 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 51.0 | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 51.7 | 50.7 | -1.0 | 0.1 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 525 | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 342 | 0 | 78 |
| Production | 4,216 | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,162 | 4,461 | 4,366 | -95 | 204 |
| Imports | 20 | 16 | 25 | 21 | 15 | 20 | 5 | -1 |
| Total Supply | 4,761 | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,447 | 4,818 | 4,729 | -89 | 282 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Crushing | 2,141 | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,287 | 2,410 | 2,410 | 0 | 123 |
| Exports | 2,266 | 2,152 | 1,980 | 1,695 | 1,825 | 1,825 | 0 | 130 |
| Seed and Residual | 97 | 107 | 114 | 123 | 113 | 114 | 1 | -9 |
| Total Use | 4,504 | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,105 | 4,348 | 4,349 | 1 | 244 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 470 | 380 | -90 | 38 |
| Foreign Stocks | 3,430 | 3,146 | 3,456 | 3,787 | 4,375 | 4,337 | -38 | 550 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Average Season Price ($/Bu) | $10.80 | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.40 | $10.20 | $10.20 | $0.00 | -$2.20 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 5.71% | 6.14% | 6.13% | 8.33% | 10.81% | 8.74% | -2.07% | 0.41% |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024/2025 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 4,129 | 15,589 | 6,586 | 12,834 | 14,901 | 6,686 | 4,717 |
| United States | 342 | 4,367 | 20 | 2,410 | 2,524 | 1,825 | 380 |
| Total Foreign | 3,787 | 11,222 | 6,566 | 10,424 | 12,377 | 4,862 | 4,337 |
| Argentina | 884 | 1,911 | 220 | 1,506 | 1,786 | 165 | 1,064 |
| Brazil | 1,028 | 6,210 | 6 | 2,021 | 2,172 | 3,876 | 1,195 |
| Paraguay | 7 | 412 | 1 | 129 | 135 | 268 | 16 |
| China | 1,591 | 759 | 4,005 | 3,785 | 4,663 | 4 | 1,689 |
| E.U. | 41 | 105 | 536 | 559 | 624 | 11 | 48 |
| S.E. Asia | 29 | 17 | 363 | 177 | 364 | 0 | 44 |
| Mexico | 10 | 8 | 246 | 244 | 247 | 0 | 17 |
| ROW | 197 | 1,802 | 1,189 | 2,003 | 2,387 | 536 | 265 |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2024/2025 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 8 | -106 | 39 | 69 | 69 | 0 | -129 |
| United States | – | -95 | 5 | – | 1 | – | -90 |
| Total Foreign | 8 | -11 | 34 | 69 | 69 | – | -38 |
| Argentina | -1 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 |
| Brazil | – | – | – | 37 | 37 | – | -37 |
| Paraguay | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| China | – | -2 | – | – | – | – | -2 |
| E.U. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| S.E. Asia | 4 | – | -1 | 3 | 3 | – | – |
| Mexico | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | 6 | -9 | 35 | 29 | 29 | – | 2 |
Wheat
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
March 2025 wheat futures closed down 3 ¼ cents at $5.30 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $5.26 to $5.41 ¼. July 2025 wheat futures closed down ½ cent for the day at $5.54 ½ with a trading range for the day of $5.47 to $5.62. Wheat had an up and down day being pulled higher by the bullish corn report and lower by an increase in winter wheat planted area.
USDA Summary
The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly larger supplies and domestic use, unchanged exports, and marginally higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on higher imports, increased 5 million bushels to 130 million, all on Hard Red Spring. Feed and residual use is unchanged at 120 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes based on the NASS Grain Stocks report. Seed use is increased 2 million bushels to 64 million, based on the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Exports are unchanged at 850 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 3 million bushels to 798 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $5.55 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for slightly larger supplies, lower consumption, reduced trade, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised 15 million bushels to 38.974 billion as higher production for Syria and Pakistan more than offsets a reduction for Uruguay. Global consumption is lowered 22 million bushels to 29.465 billion, primarily on reductions for Turkey partially offset by Ukraine. World trade is 62 million bushels lower at 7.79 billion on decreased exports for Russia and Ukraine. Russia’s exports are forecast at 1.69 billion bushels, down 37 million from last month and well below last year’s record of 2.039 billion. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are raised 33 million bushels to 9.509 billion, primarily on increases for Russia, Brazil, Nigeria, and Ukraine more than offsetting reductions for Turkey, China, and Indonesia.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected December | 2024/25 Projected January | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 44.5 | 46.7 | 45.8 | 49.6 | 46.1 | 46.1 | 0 | -3.5 |
| Harvested (Million) | 36.8 | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.1 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 0 | 1.4 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 49.7 | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.7 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,028 | 845 | 674 | 570 | 696 | 696 | 0 | 126 |
| Production | 1,828 | 1,646 | 1,650 | 1,804 | 1,971 | 1,971 | 0 | 167 |
| Imports | 100 | 96 | 122 | 138 | 125 | 130 | 5 | -8 |
| Total Supply | 2,956 | 2,588 | 2,446 | 2,512 | 2,793 | 2,798 | 5 | 286 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Food | 961 | 971 | 972 | 961 | 966 | 966 | 0 | 5 |
| Seed | 64 | 58 | 68 | 62 | 62 | 64 | 2 | 2 |
| Feed | 93 | 88 | 74 | 85 | 120 | 120 | 0 | 35 |
| Exports | 994 | 796 | 762 | 707 | 850 | 850 | 0 | 143 |
| Total Use | 2,111 | 1,913 | 1,876 | 1,815 | 1,998 | 2,000 | 2 | 185 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 845 | 674 | 570 | 696 | 795 | 798 | 3 | 102 |
| Foreign Stocks | 9,676 | 9,345 | 9,508 | 9,131 | 8,681 | 8,712 | 31 | -419 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $5.05 | $7.63 | $8.83 | $6.96 | $5.60 | $5.55 | -$0.05 | -$1.41 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 40.03% | 35.23% | 30.38% | 38.35% | 39.79% | 39.90% | 0.11% | 1.55% |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024-25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 9,828 | 29,147 | 7,660 | 5,611 | 29,464 | 7,790 | 9,510 |
| United States | 696 | 1,971 | 130 | 120 | 1,150 | 850 | 798 |
| Total Foreign | 9,131 | 27,175 | 7,531 | 5,491 | 28,314 | 6,939 | 8,712 |
| Argentina | 167 | 643 | 0 | 9 | 259 | 423 | 129 |
| Australia | 107 | 1,176 | 7 | 147 | 276 | 919 | 96 |
| Canada | 170 | 1,285 | 20 | 165 | 353 | 955 | 166 |
| European Union | 571 | 4,457 | 423 | 1,635 | 3,996 | 1,066 | 389 |
| Russia | 430 | 2,995 | 11 | 570 | 1,405 | 1,690 | 340 |
| Ukraine | 26 | 841 | 3 | 73 | 246 | 588 | 36 |
| Bangladesh | 40 | 40 | 254 | 9 | 292 | 0 | 42 |
| Brazil | 62 | 298 | 235 | 18 | 437 | 99 | 58 |
| China | 4,942 | 5,148 | 386 | 1,213 | 5,548 | 37 | 4,891 |
| Japan | 40 | 40 | 198 | 24 | 226 | 11 | 41 |
| N. Africa | 407 | 588 | 1,190 | 53 | 1,716 | 77 | 393 |
| Nigeria | 16 | 4 | 213 | 0 | 187 | 14 | 32 |
| Sel. Mideast | 470 | 823 | 661 | 119 | 1,482 | 30 | 443 |
| Southeast Asia | 164 | 0 | 1,104 | 367 | 1,057 | 47 | 164 |
| India | 276 | 4,163 | 7 | 220 | 4,124 | 9 | 312 |
| Kazakhstan | 127 | 661 | 18 | 110 | 298 | 367 | 141 |
| United Kingdom | 120 | 406 | 118 | 239 | 533 | 18 | 92 |
| ROW | 998 | 3,607 | 2,680 | 518 | 5,879 | 590 | 946 |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2024/2025 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 2 | 11 | -39 | 4 | -21 | -61 | 35 |
| United States | – | – | 5 | – | 2 | – | 3 |
| Total Foreign | 2 | 11 | -44 | 4 | -24 | -61 | 31 |
| Argentina | -1 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 |
| Australia | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | 1 |
| Canada | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | 3 |
| European Union | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | 1 |
| Russia | – | – | – | – | – | -37 | 37 |
| Ukraine | – | – | – | 11 | 11 | -18 | 7 |
| Bangladesh | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | – | – | 7 | – | – | – | 7 |
| China | – | 4 | -18 | – | – | – | -15 |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| N. Africa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Nigeria | – | – | 11 | – | 4 | – | 7 |
| Sel. Mideast | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Southeast Asia | -7 | – | – | 2 | 4 | – | -11 |
| India | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Kazakhstan | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 4 |
| United Kingdom | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | 1 |
| ROW | – | 7 | -44 | -9 | -42 | -6 | -11 |
Profitability Update
2024 Estimated Returns – Non-Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of January 10, 2025, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, non-irrigated yields are average yields for Tennessee from the USDA Crop Production Report. Prices used for grain, oilseeds, and cotton are based on current Tennessee cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2024 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Land cost was estimated as a cash rent at the USDA NASS state average for non-irrigated cropland of $117 per acre. Substantial variation in land costs exists in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2024 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses returns over specified costs for corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing a -$90, -$233, -$152, and -$174 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will also vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield – Crop Production Report (Tennessee) | 1,066 | 42 | 152 | 75/40 |
| Current Price (as of 1/10/2025) | $0.66 | $10.25 | $4.74 | $5.24/$10.25 |
| Revenue | $704 | $431 | $720 | $803 |
| Variable Expenses | $610 | $305 | $520 | $590 |
| Returns Over Variable | $94 | $126 | $200 | $213 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $117 | $117 | $117 | $117 |
| Returns Over Variable and Land Costs | ($23) | $9 | $83 | $96 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $210 | $160 | $173 | $270 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($233) | ($152) | ($90) | ($174) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.88 | $13.86 | $5.33 | $6.43/$12.21 |
2024 Estimated Returns – Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of January 10, 2025, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, irrigated yields were estimated as: 240 bushels per acre for corn, 65 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, 1,450 pounds per acre cotton, and 85 bushels of wheat and 60 bushels of soybeans for double crop wheat/soybeans. Prices used for grain and cotton sales are based on current Tennessee harvest cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2024 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Irrigation fixed costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and irrigation systems. Land cost was estimated as cash rent of $197/acre (USDA NASS state average for irrigated cropland in Tennessee). Substantial variation in land costs exists in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2024 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing returns of -$60, -$300, -$174, and -$212 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Yield (lb or bu) | 1,450 | 65 | 240 | 85/60 |
| Current Price (as of 1/10/2025) | $0.66 | $10.25 | $4.74 | $5.24/$10.25 |
| Revenue | $957 | $666 | $1,138 | $1,060 |
| Variable Expenses (includes energy cost) | $735 | $380 | $720 | $720 |
| Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre | $100 | $100 | $100 | $100 |
| Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR Costs | $122 | $186 | $318 | $240 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $197 | $197 | $197 | $197 |
| Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed Cost and Land Costs | ($75) | ($11) | $121 | $43 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $225 | $163 | $181 | $255 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($300) | ($174) | ($60) | ($212) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.87 | $12.92 | $4.99 | $7.48/$10.60 |