Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook
The following is a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based on 2018 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2023 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2023 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.
The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith.
May 12, 2025 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates
Corn
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
July 2025 corn futures closed down 1 ¾ cents at $4.48 with a trading range for the day of $4.45 ¾ to $4.58 ¾. December 2025 corn futures closed up 3 ½ cents for the day at $4.45 ½ with a trading range for the day of $4.41 ¼ to $4.49 ¾. Year-over-year changes in U.S. versus foreign ending stocks highlight the importance of U.S. access to international markets. U.S. stocks are projected to be up 385 million bushels year-over-year, foreign stocks are projected down 757 million bushels.
USDA Summary
The 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for record supplies and total use, and higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year ago on increases to both area and yield. Planted area of 95.3 million acres if realized would be the highest in over a decade. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. With smaller beginning stocks partially offsetting the increase in production, total corn supplies are forecast at 17.3 billion bushels. Total U.S. corn use for 2025/26 is forecast to rise over 1 percent relative to a year ago on higher domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial use is forecast at 6.9 billion bushels. Corn used for ethanol is unchanged relative to a year ago at 5.5 billion bushels, based on expectations of essentially flat motor gasoline consumption and exports. Feed and residual use is projected higher to 5.9 billion bushels on larger supplies and lower expected prices. U.S. corn exports for 2025/26 are forecast up from a year ago to 2.7 billion bushels, with lower prices driving a forecast increase in world trade. Exports for competitor countries such as Argentina and Ukraine are higher than a year ago. For Brazil, expectations of continued domestic demand growth limit expansion in exports. The United States is projected to be the world’s largest exporter, with fractional decline in global market share. With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2025/26 ending stocks are up 385 million bushels from last year and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2019/20. Stocks would represent 11.6 percent of use, up from 9.3 percent the prior year. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.20 per bushel, down 15 cents.
The 2025/26 global coarse grain outlook is for record production and consumption and a decline in ending stocks. World corn production is forecast to rise to a record 49.801 billion bushels, with the largest increases for the United States, Ukraine, and Argentina. Partly offsetting are smaller crops projected for Tanzania and Canada. Larger area expectations drive an increase in corn production for Argentina, while a return to trend yield and higher area boosts production prospects for Ukraine. For Brazil, expansion in corn area drives larger crop prospects. World corn consumption is expected to rise 2 percent to a record 50.155 billion bushels, with consumption exceeding production for the second consecutive year. World corn imports are forecast to rise 1 percent, driven by increases for several countries, including China, Vietnam, the EU, Venezuela, and Iran. Partly offsetting are declines for Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Turkey.
Global corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are down 374 million bushels to 10.936 billion bushels which if realized would be the lowest since 2013/14. For 2025/26, stocks in the major exporting countries of Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are projected to rise, mostly reflecting an increase for the United States partly offset by a decline for Brazil. For China, total coarse grain imports for 2025/26 are forecast up from a year ago but below the record reached during 2020/21. Corn imports are projected up 79 million bushels to 394 million.
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 Est. April | 2024/25 Est. May | 2025/26 Projected May | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2025/26-2024/25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 90.6 | 90.6 | 95.3 | 0.0 | 4.7 |
| Harvested (Million) | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 82.9 | 82.9 | 87.4 | 0.0 | 4.5 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 179.3 | 179.3 | 181 | 0.0 | 1.7 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,763 | 1,415 | 0 | -348 |
| Production | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,341 | 14,867 | 14,867 | 15,820 | 0 | 953 |
| Imports | 24 | 39 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Supply | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,729 | 16,655 | 16,655 | 17,260 | 0 | 605 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Feed and Residual | 5,671 | 5,486 | 5,805 | 5,750 | 5,750 | 5,900 | 0 | 150 |
| Ethanol | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,478 | 5,500 | 5,500 | 5,500 | 0 | 0 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 1,437 | 1,382 | 1,390 | 1,390 | 1,390 | 1,385 | 0 | -5 |
| Exports | 2,472 | 1,662 | 2,292 | 2,550 | 2,600 | 2,675 | 50 | 75 |
| Total Use | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,966 | 15,190 | 15,240 | 15,460 | 50 | 220 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,465 | 1,415 | 1,800 | -50 | 385 |
| Foreign Stocks | 10,858 | 10,638 | 10,679 | 9,859 | 9,895 | 9,138 | 36 | -757 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $6.00 | $6.54 | $4.55 | $4.35 | $4.35 | $4.20 | $0.00 | -$0.15 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 9.24% | 9.92% | 11.78% | 9.64% | 9.28% | 11.64% | $0.00 | $0.02 |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2025/26
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 11,310 | 49,800 | 7,381 | 31,555 | 50,172 | 7,709 | 10,938 |
| United States | 1,415 | 15,820 | 25 | 5,900 | 12,785 | 2,675 | 1,800 |
| Total Foreign | 9,895 | 33,980 | 7,356 | 25,656 | 37,387 | 5,034 | 9,138 |
| Argentina | 94 | 2,087 | 0 | 441 | 614 | 1,457 | 110 |
| Brazil | 235 | 5,157 | 63 | 2,579 | 3,661 | 1,693 | 102 |
| Russia | 36 | 591 | 2 | 398 | 441 | 142 | 46 |
| South Africa | 63 | 650 | 0 | 280 | 559 | 75 | 78 |
| Ukraine | 12 | 1,201 | 0 | 209 | 245 | 945 | 24 |
| Egypt | 52 | 285 | 344 | 524 | 622 | 0 | 60 |
| E.U. | 249 | 2,362 | 807 | 2,272 | 3,063 | 118 | 237 |
| Japan | 50 | 1 | 610 | 480 | 610 | 0 | 51 |
| Mexico | 226 | 965 | 984 | 1,102 | 1,949 | 1 | 225 |
| SE Asia | 109 | 1,231 | 846 | 1,622 | 2,039 | 24 | 122 |
| South Korea | 82 | 4 | 453 | 368 | 457 | 0 | 82 |
| Canada | 76 | 579 | 98 | 378 | 594 | 83 | 76 |
| China | 7,802 | 11,614 | 394 | 9,409 | 12,637 | 1 | 7,171 |
| ROW | 808 | 7,256 | 2,753 | 5,596 | 9,895 | 496 | 754 |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2025/26 – 2024/25
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -1,133 | 1,720 | 156 | 773 | 959 | 254 | -372 |
| United States | -348 | 953 | – | 150 | 145 | 75 | 385 |
| Total Foreign | -785 | 767 | 156 | 623 | 814 | 179 | -757 |
| Argentina | -4 | 118 | – | 39 | 39 | 59 | 16 |
| Brazil | -98 | 39 | 4 | 39 | 79 | – | -134 |
| Russia | 6 | 39 | – | 24 | 24 | 12 | 10 |
| South Africa | 30 | 20 | -14 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 16 |
| Ukraine | -13 | 146 | – | 43 | 43 | 79 | 11 |
| Egypt | -4 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 12 | – | 8 |
| E.U. | -39 | 27 | 20 | -20 | -4 | 24 | -12 |
| Japan | -1 | – | 8 | 8 | 6 | – | 1 |
| Mexico | -9 | 47 | – | 31 | 39 | – | -1 |
| SE Asia | -16 | 24 | 49 | 61 | 41 | 2 | 14 |
| South Korea | 2 | – | – | – | 2 | – | – |
| Canada | -2 | -26 | 12 | – | -12 | -4 | – |
| China | -516 | 3 | 79 | 197 | 197 | – | -631 |
| ROW | -119 | 319 | -15 | 184 | 337 | – | -54 |
Cotton
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
July 25 cotton futures closed up 0.02 cents at 66.63 with a trading range for the day of 66.57 to 68.89 cents. December 2025 cotton futures closed up 0.18 cents at 68.85 cents with a trading range for the day of 68.80 to 70.50 cents. Cotton prices continue to languish below 70 cents most days. U.S. acreage reduction of over 1.3 million will make prices more sensitive should a production disruption occur in the Southern Plains. Trade deals remain the most likely candidate for substantial improvements in prices in the next 6 months.
USDA Summary
The forecast for 2025/26 U.S. cotton shows a small increase in production, higher exports, beginning and ending stocks, and unchanged consumption compared to 2024/25. Planted area is expected to be 9.87 million acres based on the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. With recent precipitation in the Southwest, abandonment is projected to be lower than average resulting in a U.S. harvested area of 8.37 million acres, higher than the 7.81 million harvested in 2024/25. The national average yield for 2025/26 is projected at 832 pounds per harvested acre, below last year’s 886 pounds, based on regionally weighted 5-year averages. Production is projected to be 14.50 million bales, slightly above the 14.41 million bales produced in 2024/25. Exports are projected to rebound to 12.50 million bales, up from 11.10 million, because of larger beginning stocks and higher global import demand. Ending stocks are forecast to be 400,000 bales higher at 5.20 million, for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 36.6 percent. The projected season-average price for 2025/26 is 62 cents per pound.
The 2024/25 balance sheet for U.S. cotton reflects a 200,000-bale increase in projected exports to 11.10 million and a crop of 14.41 million bales based on NASS’s final estimate of 2024/25 U.S. cotton production. As a result, ending stocks for 2024/25 are reduced to 4.80 million bales. The projected 2024/25 season-average price remains unchanged at 63 cents per pound.
World supply for 2025/26 is up approximately 1.5 percent from 2024/25 as the increase in beginning stocks exceeds the decline in production. Global consumption is up 1.2 percent to 118.08 million bales as increases in Bangladesh, India, Turkey, and Vietnam (collectively +1.40 million bales) more than offset a 500,000-bale decline in China, with smaller changes elsewhere. Global trade is projected to be over 5 percent higher to 44.83 million bales as both the United States and Brazil each increase exports by over 1 million bales. Ending stocks are essentially unchanged from 2024/25 at 78.38 million bales.
In the 2024/25 world balance sheet, production, consumption, and trade are revised upward from their April forecasts with beginning stocks virtually unchanged and ending stocks revised downward. Because of excellent early harvest yields, Australia’s projected crop is raised 200,000 bales, accounting for much of the increase in production. Consumption and imports are each raised 300,000 bales for both Pakistan and Vietnam while imports by China are reduced 500,000 bales. As a result, ending stocks are reduced over 450,000 bales to 78.40 million, for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 67.1 percent.
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 Est. April | 2024/25 Est. May | 2025/26 Projected May | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2025/26-2024/25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 11.21 | 13.75 | 10.23 | 11.18 | 11.18 | 9.87 | 0 | -1.31 |
| Harvested (Million) | 10.26 | 7.29 | 6.44 | 8.27 | 7.81 | 8.37 | -0.46 | 0.56 |
| U.S. Average Yield (lb/acre) | 820 | 953 | 899 | 836 | 886 | 832 | 50 | -54 |
| Supply (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 3.15 | 4.6 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 4.8 | 0 | 1.65 |
| Production | 17.52 | 14.47 | 12.07 | 14.41 | 14.41 | 14.5 | 0 | 0.09 |
| Imports | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Supply | 20.68 | 19.07 | 16.72 | 17.57 | 17.57 | 19.31 | 0 | 1.74 |
| Use and Stocks (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Domestic | 2.55 | 2.05 | 1.85 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Exports | 14.48 | 12.45 | 11.75 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Total Use | 17.03 | 14.5 | 13.6 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 14.2 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 4.05 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | -0.2 | 0.4 |
| Foreign Stocks | 72.27 | 71.25 | 70.62 | 73.86 | 73.6 | 73.18 | -0.26 | -0.42 |
| Chinese Stocks | 38.06 | 33.36 | 36.72 | 38.12 | 37.62 | 37.02 | -0.5 | -0.6 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/lb) | $0.914 | $0.848 | $0.761 | $0.630 | $0.630 | $0.620 | $0.00 | -$0.01 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 24% | 32% | 23% | 40% | 38% | 37% | -2.18% | -$0.01 |
| Chinese Stocks/Use | 115.3% | 88.5% | 94.4% | 103.0% | 101.7% | 101.4% | -1.35% | $0.00 |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) 2025/26
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 78.4 | 117.81 | 44.82 | 118.08 | 44.83 | -0.25 | 78.38 |
| United States | 4.8 | 14.5 | 0.01 | 1.7 | 12.5 | -0.1 | 5.2 |
| Total Foreign | 73.6 | 103.31 | 44.82 | 116.38 | 32.33 | -0.15 | 73.18 |
| Central Asia | 2.89 | 5.12 | 0.2 | 4.09 | 1.46 | 0 | 2.67 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | 1.41 | 4.83 | 0 | 0.11 | 4.8 | 0 | 1.33 |
| Australia | 4.73 | 4.1 | 0 | 0 | 4.9 | -0.15 | 4.08 |
| Brazil | 3.92 | 18.25 | 0.01 | 3.5 | 14 | 0 | 4.67 |
| India | 10 | 24.5 | 3 | 26 | 1.5 | 0 | 10 |
| Mexico | 0.22 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.25 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.17 |
| China | 37.62 | 29 | 7 | 36.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 37.02 |
| E.U. | 0.3 | 1.28 | 0.51 | 0.55 | 1.19 | 0 | 0.34 |
| Turkey | 1.35 | 3.6 | 5 | 7.5 | 1 | 0 | 1.45 |
| Pakistan | 2 | 5.5 | 5 | 10.6 | 0.05 | 0 | 1.85 |
| Indonesia | 0.38 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.02 | 0 | 0.37 |
| Thailand | 0.09 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 |
| Bangladesh | 1.76 | 0.15 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 0 | 0 | 1.92 |
| Vietnam | 1.04 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1.04 |
| ROW | 5.89 | 6.28 | 4.49 | 7.28 | 3.21 | 0.00 | 6.18 |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales): 2025/26 – 2024/25
| Country / Region | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 4.63 | -3.26 | 2.34 | 1.4 | 2.38 | -0.03 | -0.02 |
| United States | 1.65 | 0.09 | – | – | 1.4 | -0.07 | 0.4 |
| Total Foreign | 2.98 | -3.35 | 2.35 | 1.4 | 0.98 | 0.04 | -0.42 |
| Central Asia | -0.31 | -0.02 | 0.1 | 0.02 | -0.03 | – | -0.22 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | 0.11 | 0.22 | – | 0.01 | 0.4 | – | -0.08 |
| Australia | 0.49 | -1.5 | – | – | -0.4 | 0.04 | -0.65 |
| Brazil | 0.81 | 1.25 | – | 0.2 | 1.1 | – | 0.75 |
| India | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| Mexico | -0.02 | -0.13 | -0.05 | -0.1 | -0.05 | – | -0.05 |
| China | 0.9 | -3 | 1 | -0.5 | – | – | -0.6 |
| E.U. | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.02 | – | 0.04 |
| Turkey | -0.05 | -0.35 | 0.7 | 0.4 | -0.2 | – | 0.1 |
| Pakistan | 0.15 | 0.5 | -0.8 | – | – | – | -0.15 |
| Indonesia | -0.02 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | -0.01 |
| Thailand | – | – | 0.02 | 0.02 | – | – | – |
| Bangladesh | 0.05 | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | 0.16 |
| Vietnam | 0.01 | – | 0.3 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
| ROW | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.04 | – | 0.29 |
Soybeans
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
July 2025 soybean futures were up 19 ½ cents for the day closing at $10.71 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $10.52 ½ to $10.74 ¾. November 2025 soybean futures closed up 27 cents at $10.57 ½ with a trading range for the day of $10.33 ¾ to $10.58 ¾. The domestic supply and demand picture would forecast higher prices (stocks projected below 300 million bushels). However, the foreign picture is bearish with the potential for additional production from South America and loss of U.S. market share in China due to tariffs.
USDA Summary
The 2025/26 outlook for U.S. soybeans shows slightly lower supplies, higher crush, reduced exports, and lower ending stocks compared with 2024/25. The soybean crop is projected lower at 4.34 billion bushels with trend yield and lower area. With higher beginning stocks but lower imports and production, soybean supplies are down less than 1 percent from 2024/25. Total U.S. oilseed production is projected up, as higher peanut, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed is mostly offset by lower soybean and rapeseed production. U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 is projected at 2.49 billion bushels, up 70 million from the 2024/25 forecast with higher soybean meal disappearance and exports. Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase 2 percent on increased pork and poultry production. U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast at 18.0 million short tons, indicating a 20 percent share of global trade, compared to the prior 5-year average of 19 percent. U.S. soybean oil domestic use is forecast to increase in 2025/26, with soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock rising to 13.9 billion pounds. Soybean oil exports are forecast to decline on higher global supplies of palm oil, sunflowerseed oil, and rapeseed oil. U.S. soybean oil stocks are up 6 percent compared to 2024/25. Global trade of oilseeds and oilseed meals reflects higher demand growth in protein meal consumption spurred by relatively lower feed prices. Higher beginning stocks and rising soybean production in South America boost exportable supply. Therefore, despite higher global demand, the U.S. share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26 percent, down from 28 percent last year. Accordingly, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million from 2024/25. U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected at 295 million bushels, down 55 million from the revised 2024/25 forecast. The 2025/26 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.25 per bushel, compared with $9.95 per bushel in 2024/25. The soybean meal price is forecast at $310 per short ton, up $10. The soybean oil price is forecast at 46 cents per pound, up 1 cent from the prior year.
Global 2025/26 oilseed production is projected up 2 percent from last marketing year. Global soybean production is forecast at 15.682 billion bushels, up 1 percent, with higher production for Brazil, Paraguay, Russia, and China partly offset by lower production for the United States, Canada, Argentina, Ukraine, and Uruguay. Brazil’s soybean production is projected at a record 6.43 billion bushels, up 220 million from the prior year. Argentina’s soybean production is forecast at 1.782 billion bushels, down 18 million, as area shifts from soybeans to corn. Global 2025/26 soybean crush is growing 3 percent to 13.467 billion bushels, with most of the growth for China, the United States, Brazil, Egypt, Pakistan, Argentina, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam. Overall, the highest growth in oilseed meal exports is soybean meal for the United States and Argentina and sunflowerseed meal for Ukraine. Global vegetable oil exports are rising 3 percent on higher palm oil exports for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand and higher sunflowerseed oil exports for Ukraine and Turkey. Global vegetable oil stocks are flat with the prior year.
Global soybean exports for 2025/26 are expected to increase 4 percent to 6.923 billion bushels from 2024/25. Exports of major South American soybean-producing countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) are expected to rise 312 million bushels, more than offsetting lower U.S. exports. Global imports are increased for Argentina on higher supplies in neighboring countries and in China, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Mexico, and Algeria. Soybean imports for China are up 147 million bushels from the revised 2024/25 import forecast at 4.115 billion. Global ending stocks are up 44 million bushels to 4.567 billion, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil and Argentina partly offset by lower U.S. stocks.
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 Est. April | 2024/25 Est. May | 2025/26 Projected May | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2025/26-2024/25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 87.1 | 87.1 | 83.5 | 0.0 | -3.6 |
| Harvested (Million) | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.3 | 86.1 | 86.1 | 82.7 | 0.0 | -3.4 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 50.7 | 50.7 | 52.5 | 0.0 | 1.8 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 342 | 350 | 0 | 8 |
| Production | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,162 | 4,366 | 4,366 | 4,340 | 0 | -26 |
| Imports | 16 | 25 | 21 | 25 | 25 | 20 | 0 | -5 |
| Total Supply | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,447 | 4,734 | 4,734 | 4,710 | 0 | -24 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Crushing | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,285 | 2,420 | 2,420 | 2,490 | 0 | 70 |
| Exports | 2,152 | 1,980 | 1,695 | 1,825 | 1,850 | 1,815 | 25 | -35 |
| Seed and Residual | 107 | 113 | 124 | 114 | 114 | 110 | 0 | -4 |
| Total Use | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,105 | 4,359 | 4,384 | 4,415 | 25 | 31 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 274 | 264 | 342 | 375 | 350 | 295 | -25 | -55 |
| Foreign Stocks | 3,146 | 3,476 | 3,894 | 4,125 | 4,176 | 4,273 | 51 | 97 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Average Season Price ($/Bu) | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.40 | $9.95 | $9.95 | $10.25 | $0.00 | $0.30 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 6.14% | 6.13% | 8.33% | 8.60% | 7.98% | 6.68% | -0.62% | -$0.01 |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024/2025
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 4,526 | 15,683 | 6,864 | 13,465 | 15,581 | 6,924 | 4,568 |
| United States | 350 | 4,340 | 20 | 2,490 | 2,600 | 1,815 | 295 |
| Total Foreign | 4,176 | 11,343 | 6,845 | 10,975 | 12,981 | 5,109 | 4,273 |
| Argentina | 909 | 1,782 | 265 | 1,580 | 1,856 | 165 | 935 |
| Brazil | 1,224 | 6,430 | 6 | 2,131 | 2,289 | 4,115 | 1,255 |
| Paraguay | 16 | 404 | 1 | 114 | 121 | 283 | 17 |
| China | 1,615 | 772 | 4,115 | 3,968 | 4,887 | 4 | 1,612 |
| E.U. | 73 | 108 | 525 | 562 | 618 | 11 | 78 |
| S.E. Asia | 44 | 15 | 404 | 217 | 416 | 1 | 48 |
| Mexico | 31 | 10 | 257 | 257 | 261 | 0 | 37 |
| ROW | 264 | 1,821 | 1,272 | 2,145 | 2,534 | 529 | 292 |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2025/26 – 2024/2025
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 290 | 219 | 318 | 452 | 506 | 278 | 42 |
| United States | 8 | -26 | -5 | 70 | 66 | -35 | -55 |
| Total Foreign | 282 | 245 | 323 | 383 | 439 | 313 | 97 |
| Argentina | 26 | -18 | 44 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 26 |
| Brazil | 130 | 220 | – | 37 | 44 | 276 | 31 |
| Paraguay | 5 | 29 | – | – | 1 | 33 | 1 |
| China | 24 | 13 | 147 | 147 | 187 | – | -4 |
| E.U. | 26 | 1 | -11 | 11 | 11 | – | 5 |
| S.E. Asia | 14 | -1 | 24 | 30 | 33 | – | 4 |
| Mexico | 8 | – | 11 | 13 | 13 | – | 6 |
| ROW | 49 | 1 | 109 | 130 | 136 | -7 | 29 |
Wheat
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
July 2025 wheat futures closed down 6 ½ cents at $5.15 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $5.14 to $5.28 ¼. September 2025 wheat futures closed down 6 ¾ cents for the day at $5.29 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $5.28 ¾ to $5.42. Cash wheat prices in Tennessee remain closer to $5 than $6 for most producers. This is unlikely to change based on current supply and demand estimates.
USDA Summary
The 2025/26 U.S. wheat outlook is for increased supplies, modestly higher domestic use, reduced exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are projected up 2 percent from 2024/25 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. All wheat production is projected at 1,921 million bushels, down 3 percent from last year on lower harvested acreage. The all wheat yield is projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year. The first 2025 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast of 1,382 million bushels is up 2 percent from 2024 with Hard Red Winter and White accounting for most of the increase. Total 2025/26 domestic use is marginally higher, mostly on food use, which is projected at a record 977 million bushels. Exports are projected lower at 800 million bushels as the United States is expected to face strong competition from most major exporters in 2025/26. Projected 2025/26 ending stocks are 10 percent above last year at 923 million bushels, the highest level in six years. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price is $5.30 per bushel, down $0.20 from last year on higher stocks and lower projected U.S. corn prices.
The global wheat outlook for 2025/26 is for larger supplies, increased consumption and trade, and slightly higher stocks. Supplies are projected to rise 180 million bushels to 39.452 billion with production projected at a record 29.707 billion bushels, more than offsetting lower carry-in stocks. Increased output for the EU, India, the United Kingdom, China, Argentina, Russia, and Canada is expected to more than offset reductions for Kazakhstan, Australia, Pakistan, and the United States. Beginning stocks are lowered for several countries, most notably China, Turkey, and the EU. Projected 2025/26 world consumption is raised 162 million bushels to a record 29.689 billion as food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is expected to continue growing, while feed and residual use increases relatively less with ample coarse grain supplies. India and the EU have the largest increases for FSI and feed and residual, respectively.
Projected 2025/26 global trade is 7.826 billion bushels, up 254 million from last year but well below the 2023/24 record of 8.164 billion. The EU is expected to show the largest year-to-year increase among major exporters, up 276 million bushels to 1.249 billion. Russia is projected to remain the leading 2025/26 global wheat exporter at 1.653 billion bushels, up from 1.598 billion for 2024/25. Exports are also projected higher for Argentina and Ukraine while lower for Australia, Kazakhstan, and the United States. Projected 2025/26 world ending stocks are 9.763 billion bushels, up 18 million from last year. China and Pakistan account for the largest reductions, while the largest increases are for India, the United States, and the EU.
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 Est. April | 2024/25 Est. May | 2025/26 Projected May | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2025/26-2024/25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 46.7 | 45.8 | 49.6 | 46.1 | 46.1 | 45.4 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Harvested (Million) | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.1 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 37.2 | 0 | -1.3 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.7 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 51.6 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 845 | 674 | 570 | 696 | 696 | 841 | 0 | 145 |
| Production | 1,646 | 1,650 | 1,804 | 1,971 | 1,971 | 1,921 | 0 | -50 |
| Imports | 96 | 122 | 138 | 150 | 150 | 120 | 0 | -30 |
| Total Supply | 2,588 | 2,446 | 2,512 | 2,818 | 2,818 | 2,882 | 0 | 64 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Food | 971 | 972 | 961 | 970 | 975 | 977 | 5 | 2 |
| Seed | 58 | 68 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
| Feed | 88 | 74 | 85 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 0 | 0 |
| Exports | 796 | 762 | 707 | 820 | 820 | 800 | 0 | -20 |
| Total Use | 1,913 | 1,876 | 1,815 | 1,972 | 1,977 | 1,959 | 5 | -18 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 674 | 570 | 696 | 846 | 841 | 923 | -5 | 82 |
| Foreign Stocks | 9,345 | 9,550 | 9,192 | 8,733 | 8,903 | 8,841 | 170 | -62 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $7.63 | $8.83 | $6.96 | $5.50 | $5.50 | $5.30 | $0.00 | -$0.20 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 35.23% | 30.38% | 38.35% | 42.90% | 42.54% | 47.12% | -0.36% | 4.6% |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2025/26
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 9,745 | 29,708 | 7,703 | 5,712 | 29,689 | 7,826 | 9,764 |
| United States | 841 | 1,921 | 120 | 120 | 1,159 | 800 | 923 |
| Total Foreign | 8,903 | 27,787 | 7,584 | 5,592 | 28,530 | 7,026 | 8,841 |
| Argentina | 182 | 735 | 0 | 11 | 268 | 478 | 171 |
| Australia | 155 | 1,139 | 7 | 169 | 298 | 845 | 159 |
| Canada | 150 | 1,323 | 20 | 147 | 340 | 992 | 161 |
| EU | 454 | 4,997 | 349 | 1,709 | 4,079 | 1,249 | 473 |
| Russia | 426 | 3,050 | 11 | 570 | 1,415 | 1,653 | 419 |
| Ukraine | 55 | 845 | 4 | 73 | 243 | 606 | 55 |
| Bangladesh | 33 | 37 | 257 | 11 | 294 | 0 | 33 |
| Brazil | 54 | 294 | 246 | 18 | 445 | 99 | 51 |
| China | 4,663 | 5,218 | 220 | 1,213 | 5,512 | 37 | 4,553 |
| Japan | 41 | 40 | 200 | 26 | 228 | 11 | 43 |
| N. Africa | 410 | 630 | 1,192 | 50 | 1,714 | 78 | 440 |
| Nigeria | 25 | 5 | 213 | 0 | 202 | 15 | 26 |
| Sel. Mideast | 485 | 753 | 723 | 102 | 1,474 | 37 | 449 |
| SE Asia | 157 | 0 | 1,132 | 389 | 1,080 | 49 | 159 |
| India | 441 | 4,299 | 9 | 239 | 4,134 | 9 | 606 |
| Kazakhstan | 155 | 533 | 18 | 92 | 281 | 294 | 131 |
| UK | 100 | 478 | 110 | 265 | 570 | 22 | 96 |
| ROW | 918 | 3,413 | 2,869 | 509 | 5,956 | 551 | 816 |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2025/26 – 2024/25
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -143 | 324 | 426 | 43 | 161 | 252 | 19 |
| United States | 145 | -50 | -30 | – | 2 | -20 | 82 |
| Total Foreign | -288 | 374 | 456 | 43 | 158 | 272 | -62 |
| Argentina | 15 | 54 | – | 2 | 6 | 73 | -11 |
| Australia | 48 | -114 | – | 4 | 4 | -73 | 4 |
| Canada | -18 | 38 | – | 7 | 9 | – | 11 |
| EU | -126 | 510 | -44 | 37 | 46 | 276 | 18 |
| Russia | -4 | 51 | – | – | – | 55 | -7 |
| Ukraine | 29 | -15 | 1 | – | -4 | 18 | – |
| Bangladesh | -6 | -4 | 18 | 1 | 8 | – | – |
| Brazil | -8 | 4 | 7 | -4 | – | 7 | -4 |
| China | -279 | 70 | 99 | – | – | – | -110 |
| Japan | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 1 |
| N. Africa | -7 | 41 | -2 | – | 13 | -11 | 30 |
| Nigeria | 9 | – | – | – | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| Sel. Mideast | 24 | -113 | 76 | -5 | 12 | 10 | -35 |
| SE Asia | -5 | – | 26 | 11 | 17 | 2 | 2 |
| India | 165 | 136 | 4 | 18 | 137 | 3 | 165 |
| Kazakhstan | 28 | -150 | – | -26 | -24 | -73 | -24 |
| UK | -20 | 75 | -29 | 14 | 25 | 4 | -4 |
| ROW | -134 | -211 | 299 | -16 | -98 | -19 | -101 |
Profitability Update
2025 Estimated Returns – Non-Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of May 12, 2025, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, non-irrigated yields are trendline average yields for Tennessee. Prices used for grain, oilseeds, and cotton are based on current Tennessee harvest cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2025 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Land cost was estimated as a cash rent at the USDA NASS state average for non-irrigated cropland of $117 per acre. Substantial variation in land costs exists in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2025 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on trendline yields, harvest prices, and expenses returns over specified costs for corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing a -$66, -$66, -$115, and -$106 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will also vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield – Crop Production Report (Tennessee) | 1,150 | 50 | 175 | 80/40 |
| Current Harvest Price (as of 5/12/2025) | $0.70 | $10.30 | $4.30 | $5.05/$10.30 |
| Revenue | $805 | $515 | $753 | $816 |
| Variable Expenses | $598 | $315 | $535 | $545 |
| Returns Over Variable | $207 | $200 | $218 | $271 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $117 | $117 | $117 | $117 |
| Returns Over Variable and Land Costs | $90 | $83 | $101 | $154 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $205 | $149 | $166 | $260 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($115) | ($66) | ($66) | ($106) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.80 | $11.62 | $4.67 | $5.76/$11.53 |
2025 Estimated Returns – Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of May 12, 2025, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, irrigated yields were estimated as: 250 bushels per acre for corn, 65 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, 1,500 pounds per acre cotton, and 90 bushels of wheat and 60 bushels of soybeans for double crop wheat/soybeans. Prices used for grain and cotton sales are based on current Tennessee harvest cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2025 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Irrigation fixed costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and irrigation systems. Land cost was estimated as cash rent of $197/acre (USDA NASS state average for irrigated cropland in Tennessee). Substantial variation in land costs exists in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2025 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing returns of -$97, -$169, -$183, and -$200 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Yield (lb or bu) | 1,500 | 65 | 250 | 90/60 |
| Current Harvest Price (as of 5/12/2025) | $0.70 | $10.30 | $4.30 | $5.05/$10.30 |
| Revenue | $1,050 | $670 | $1,075 | $1,073 |
| Variable Expenses (includes energy cost) | $710 | $381 | $700 | $720 |
| Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre | $100 | $100 | $100 | $100 |
| Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR Costs | $240 | $189 | $275 | $253 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $197 | $197 | $197 | $197 |
| Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed Cost and Land Costs | $43 | ($9) | $78 | $56 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $226 | $160 | $175 | $255 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($183) | ($169) | ($97) | ($200) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.82 | $12.89 | $4.69 | $7.07/$10.60 |