by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
July 18, 2025
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle traded steady to $1 higher compared to last week. Prices in the South were mainly $228 to $230 while dressed prices were mainly $379 to $380.
The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $235.91 live, up $0.77 compared to a week ago and $379.32 dressed, up $0.16 from last week. A year ago, prices were $193.14 live and $310.11 dressed.
Rant commence: Live cattle futures do not represent what is offered in the cash market. They are acting like a proxy in that the contract is a finished cattle contract, but they continue to trade at a discount to even Southern cattle. It has been common for cattle in the North to trade for a premium compared to those in the South. Much of this is due to expectations of quality grade. However, the August live cattle futures contract is trading at a $5 or more discount to the lowest priced finished cattle this week. One can say this price represents cattle in August and defend an argument the next couple of weeks, but what happens when it is still trading at a large discount then? People will just say basis has changed! Rant concludes.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $374.05 up $0.77 from Thursday and down $9.50 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $352.84 down $1.00 from Thursday and down $19.54 from a week ago. The Choice Select spread was $21.21 compared to $11.17 a week ago.
Wholesale boxed beef prices have declined for three consecutive weeks with Choice boxed beef prices declining about $22 per hundredweight and Select boxed beef prices declining close to $30 per hundredweight. This may raise concern for some in the industry as the price of beef is what drives the market based on consumers’ willingness to pay those prices. The consumers’ willingness to pay for the end product drives cattle market prices, which tends to be of importance to most of this audience. Though this is of utmost importance, it may be a good sign that wholesale beef prices are declining during a season when they tend to decline. In essence, the fact beef prices are maintaining some seasonal price tendencies may indicate there is more stability in the market than if prices continued to escalate in an unchecked manner. A future positive indicator of this statement will be beef movement leading up to Labor Day. If beef prices are supported during that time period then the beef industry remains in a good situation.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction reports, steer prices were $5 to $8 higher than last week while heifer prices were $2 to $4 lower than a week ago. Slaughter cow prices were $1 to $3 lower than the previous week while bull prices were $ 1 to $2 lower than a week ago. Fundamentals have not changed in cattle markets as the quantity of cattle available to enter the feedlot continues to be small relative to previous years. Similarly, the quantity of slaughter cows and bulls coming to market also continues to be small relative to the past several years. The smaller quantity of animals is the primary driver of higher prices, but a smaller quantity does not erase the seasonal tendencies of the market. For instance, slaughter cow and slaughter bull prices seasonally begin to decline during the summer months. Is the decline in prices this week the beginning of the seasonal price decline for this class of animals? If there is follow through the next couple of weeks then the market can probably assume this will be the beginning of the seasonal decline. In the same breath, the market has not demonstrated the seasonal price decline that generally occurs with lighter weight calves. Lightweight calf prices typically peak in March and April before declining through the summer and fall months. This year, the price of lightweight calves has continued to increase with declines in random weeks along the way. One would assume prices will soften during the fall months when the majority of spring born calves make their way to market, but the seasonal decline may not be as magnified as the historical averages would predict. As the market continues to navigate unprecedented prices, market participants may gain new or exaggerated experiences. One guarantee in today’s market is more capital is involved than in previous years, which can present challenges and increase risk for cattle buyers. This magnifies the need for risk management strategies, but the appropriate strategies depend on the specific operation.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
I have been attending a sermon series this week titled “Tough STUFF.” The speaker has done a great job discussing some things that are difficult in the Christian faith. This reminded me of a comment a cattle producer made recently as he and I were discussing the challenges of cattle production. He simply said, “If it were easy, everybody would be doing it.” I guess this is the intersection of cattle and Christianity. If maintaining faith were easy then everyone would be doing it, and there would be no reason for the instruction manual (i.e. the Bible). Similarly, if all this cattle production “STUFF” was easy there would be no reason for my job or the educational component Extension brings to the lives of many people across Tennessee and the nation. Cattle production and agricultural production in general will present challenges to those willing to attempt it. However, there is assistance available if one is humble enough to admit they need assistance. It just takes finding the correct person and a willingness to take on the challenge.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –August $223.55 -0.13; October $219.83 -0.50; December $219.80 -0.70; Feeder cattle –August $324.00 -1.00; September $324.20 -1.23; October $322.30 -1.38; November $319.53 -1.38; September corn closed at $4.09 up 6 cents from Thursday.