by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
April 17, 2025
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle traded $6 higher on a live basis compared to last week. Prices were mainly $210 while dressed trade was mainly $332 to $335.
The 5-area weighted average prices thru Wednesday were $208.00 live, up $0.15 compared to a week ago and $328.00 dressed, no change compared to last week. A year ago, prices were $183.00 live and $293.74 dressed.
Cattle trade was slow this week with much of the business expected to be conducted Friday. This has been the normal trading pattern the past several weeks as both parties feel as if they have the leverage or they are just not willing to give in to the other side. Both packers and feedlots are trying to make a profit. It just so happens they are trying to do it in a much higher price environment than they have been playing in the past several years. In fact, they are playing in a game with record prices. The feedlot manager will probably win this week since live cattle futures prices increased like they were shot out of a cannon. Despite this, every projectile shot out of a cannon has always come down.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Thursday, the Choice cutout was $334.87 up $1.34 from Wednesday and down $0.25 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $317.21 up $2.82 from Thursday and up $2.69 from a week ago. The Choice Select spread was $17.66 compared to $20.60 a week ago.
The wholesale beef market has been supported the first 100 plus days of 2025 and continues to maintain the support. The Lenten season, which is a six and half week period leading up to Easter is often considered a softer demand period for meat due to some religious traditions. Thus, since the market will be exiting this season following the weekend, one might surmise there will be some additional support for the beef market. It seems this would be a tough headline to push this year given the strength the beef market has experienced. It would certainly be a positive for the packing industry if they were able to push prices higher following Easter, but the idea of prices shooting significantly higher is more a dream than what will be a reality. The player in this game that may result in more price support will be the unofficial start of summer, which is Memorial Day. Memorial Day kicks off grilling season, and it has become clear that consumers are still consuming at home. Thus, steaks and burgers will be the primary entrees.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction reports, steer prices this week were $3 to $6 higher compared to last week while heifer prices were $4 to $6 higher than the previous week. Slaughter cow prices were $3 to $5 higher compared to a week ago while slaughter bull prices were steady to $2 higher compared to last week. Price trends this week in Tennessee were the mirror opposite of the previous week. Just as the futures market for cattle was down last week, the cash market followed. Alternatively, cattle futures turned back to the positive this week, which sent local auction prices higher. Livestock futures have been trading on the news of potential tariffs, which sent a wave through the market. The delay of said tariffs was “positive” news for traders. Tariffs will not be the only subject matter that sends calf and feeder cattle markets one way or the other. Market participants are filled with uncertainty. This uncertainty does not really concern the fundamentals of the cattle market, but rather the fact the market is traversing territory never experienced as it relates to prices. Record prices have a way of causing consternation and they will continue to do so as people have a lot of money invested in each animal. The calf market is still as hot as it comes with stocker operators and backgrounding operations paying ever increasing prices to secure these animals. Higher prices do not eliminate any of the risk associated with these animals. In fact, higher purchase prices expose the purchaser to more risk and means death loss is more expensive. The strong price environment appears to be settling in with no plans of going anywhere anytime soon. This means the cow-calf producer will be in the driver seat for the foreseeable future. It is unlikely prices will turn 180 degrees as quickly as they did in the previous cycle, but that does not mean producers should plan on ever increasing cattle prices. Now is the time to be putting some of the profits back for the times when the market is lean.
The April cattle on feed report for feedlots with a 1000 head or more capacity indicated cattle and calves on feed as of April 1, 2025 totaled 11.64 million head, down 1.6% compared to a year ago, with the pre-report estimate average expecting a decrease of 1.7%. March placements in feedlots totaled 1.84 million head, up 5.1% from a year ago with the pre-report estimate average expecting placements up 3.7%. March marketing’s totaled 1.73 million head up 1.1% from 2024 with pre-report estimates expecting marketings up 0.7%. Placements on feed by weight: under 700 pounds up 5.1%, 700 to 899 pounds up 5.3%, 900 pounds and over up 4.3%.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
How can a person afford to pay $???? for an animal and expect to make a profit? This was a question posed relative to stocker producers purchasing calves in the current market without much of a promise that they will be worth more down the road. Though the margin is thin, there is a small profit in growing these cattle. The bigger question is how can a producer risk that much money and continue to expect the same return they expected when the purchase price was half of what it is today. For example, if a person purchased a calf for $1,000 and then expected to profit $100 on that investment then there was a 10 percent return on the initial investment (ignoring other input costs). That same producer is now paying $2,000 for that animal and they have an expected profit of $100, which is only a 5 percent return on the initial investment. This does not make good business sense. Some will ask what are their alternatives as if there are none, but a person could stop buying and invest that money in something that has more than a 5 percent return.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
THURSDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Thursday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –April $209.83 +2.75; June $204.08 +2.00; August $200.13 +1.18; Feeder cattle –April $293.35 +3.40; May $286.85 +2.45; August $290.88 +1.43; September $289.58 +0.95; May corn closed at $4.82 down 2 cents from Wednesday.