by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
July 31, 2026
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle trade was not established at time of publication. Asking prices on a live basis were $235 and higher and $370 on a dressed basis. Bids were mainly $365 to $368 on a dressed basis.
The 5-area weighted average prices through Thursday were $232.77 live, up $2.40 from last week and $361.75 dressed, down $3.60 from last week. A year ago, prices were $242.69 live and $383.60 dressed.
This appeared to be another one of those weeks where both packers and feedlot managers were holding firm on their bid and ask prices, respectively. For all practical purposes, packers were willing to pay steady money with one week ago, but feedlot managers were holding hopes of a higher price since live cattle futures rebounded from the lows of last week. The difference in bid and ask prices was $2 to $5, and prices will probably fall somewhere in the middle. However, the futures market is on the side of the cattle feeders this week, which likely means they will be the winner for this week’s trade. If live cattle are going to make another run, August is the time frame to do it.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $361.53 up $1.03 from Thursday and down $1.79 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $347.15 up $5.82 from Thursday and down $0.96 from last week. The Choice Select spread was $14.38 compared to $15.38 a week ago.
Despite wholesale beef prices continuing to decline this week, packers may glean one positive in that prices did not continue spiraling to lower price levels at the same pace they have the past several weeks. This statement sounds like trying to turn a pile of manure into fertilizer, but sometimes there is a need for optimism or seeing a glimmer of hope in a time of despair. Maybe calling it a “time of despair” is overdramatizing the packers’ situation, but it does put emphasis on how the market has changed in a matter of a few weeks. Given the slower decline in price of beef this week, it would appear the market is approaching a support point. Some of that support could be beef purchases for the last grilling holiday of the year that is approximately five weeks down the road, but it could also be the price point where beef demand and beef supply intersect. The summer months tend to be when beef demand is strongest while the fall months tend to see a softening of demand. This seasonal softening is expected, but the $100 billion dollar question is if beef prices can hold or not.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction market average prices, steer prices were $2 to $6 lower compared to last week, while heifer prices were $5 to $13 lower compared to the previous week. Slaughter cow prices were steady to $1 lower this week compared to a week ago while slaughter bull prices were steady compared to last week. The feeder cattle and calf markets took a square blow to the head last week and this week it would appear they are being bruised and battered again. The cash market has followed the futures market the past two weeks, but the August feeder cattle futures contract price has been on a four to five week steady decline as the price experienced a $38 per hundredweight range from its apex to the bottom. Thus, it took cash market participants a couple of weeks before they bought in to the lower price for calves and feeder cattle. Feeder cattle futures prices have actually traded higher most of this week. It is impossible to know for sure if the futures market price will retrace its steps and to what degree if it does so. The market could easily rebound over the next couple of weeks, but it could also be influenced by negative information and resume its July down trend. Since the crystal ball has taken its place on a shelf instead of predicting the future, this price action reminds us of the importance of price risk management in the cattle business. Price risk management should be considered a cost of doing business, especially when the value of cattle is extremely high. This does not mean a producer has to use a price risk management tool on every head that is planned for marketing, but it is certainly wise to protect a portion of the value of those animals in order to cover production costs. This talk may fall on deaf ears and that is perfectly fine. However, producers should at least educate themselves on how price risk management tools such as LRP insurance and futures and options can work in a marketing plan. Knowledge of these tools may assist in other decision making.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
The question that has been repeated several times this week is what impact will the opening of the Mexico border to cattle coming into the United States have on the domestic cattle market. The simple announcement of the Mexican border reopening has already had its impact as the news was received negatively by futures market traders. Thus, whether animals cross the border or not, some of the impact has already been experienced. Going a little further with the discussion, it is unlikely large quantities of cattle will begin crossing the border in the near term. There are fairly rigorous health protocols that must be met for cattle to enter the United States. There will certainly be cattle that do not meet those requirements as some producers in Mexico probably did not maintain all the requirements. On the other hand, operations on the Southern border who depend on Mexican cattle will benefit greatly from cattle being imported. In short, there should not be some drastic change in the domestic market due to the border reopening.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –August $231.75 +0.53; October $227.25 -0.20; December $226.95 +0.23; Feeder cattle –August $348.03 +1.55; September $343.78 +1.33 October $335.35 +1.33; November $329.13 +1.48; September corn closed at $4.41 down 5 cents from Thursday.