by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
October 9, 2026
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle traded was not well established. It appeared cattle would trade steady to $1 lower on a live basis compared to last week. Prices on a were mainly $218 to $220 live and $345 to $347 dressed.
The 5-area weighted average prices through Thursday were $219.10 live, down $0.80 from last week and $345.57 dressed, down $0.80 from a week ago. A year ago, prices were $230.71 live and $360.25 dressed.
Finished cattle prices continue to slip as cattle feeders are being stretched with margins. One would think simple math would say finished cattle are worth $150 less per head than one year ago. However, total revenue from finished cattle is only $10 to $15 per head less than one year ago despite the $10 per hundredweight year-over-year decline in price. This is because finished cattle are 76 pounds heavier than one year ago. Despite revenue being similar, cattle feeding margins have been cut in half. Based on back of the feed sack math, cattle feeders had $640 to put on 800 pounds of gain from March to October in 2026 while the margin was $1,250 to put on 750 pounds in 2025. Times are lean for the cattle feeder.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $374.70 down $0.15 from Thursday and up $0.34 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $356.02 up $4.29 from Thursday and up $2.66 from last week. The Choice Select spread was $18.68 compared to $21.00 a week ago.
No segment of the cattle and beef complex is all that exciting in October as cattle prices tend to be softening and wholesale beef prices are trending in the same direction. The summer grilling season came to an unofficial close five weeks ago with Labor Day, which means no three-day weekends to support beef movement. Beef movement is further hampered by high beef prices in a time when beef movement traditionally slows. What this all adds up to is that packers will struggle to push wholesale beef prices higher the next two months as turkey and ham will take center stage for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Ham is not the centerpiece of every Christmas gathering, but it is for many. The hope in the beef community is that Christmas beef demand will support prices with the movement of prime rib. Despite this hope, it is imperative to remember the beef from the entire carcass must be marketed. Thus, a single item can rarely carry the entire market. This means demand from other items will have to be supported in order to push the cutout higher.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction market average prices, steer prices were unevenly steady compared to last week, while heifer prices were steady to $3 lower compared to the previous week. Slaughter cow prices were $5 to $9 lower this week compared to a week ago while slaughter bull prices were $3 to $5 lower compared to last week. Producers have been setting wheels under the spring calf crop as marketing receipts are increasing at weekly auction markets. The increase in calves making their way to sale barns is producing the seasonal decline in calf prices that is typical to begin the last quarter of the year. Given the widespread drought conditions across most of cattle producing country, there is a good chance calves may be marketed sooner rather than later as producers consider the quantity forage available and hay stocks. An earlier or more rapid marketing pace is likely to place more pressure on prices in the near term as most of the producers looking to purchase those cattle also have to consider feed resources. With the same thought in mind, if more of the calves are marketed on the front end of the marketing season, then the price of calves could rebound earlier than what is typical due to a lower supply during that time period. This is all speculative thoughts, but this is what could be expected if such a situation were to occur. On the purchase side of this business, stocker producers will have to be competitive when purchasing calves, but stocker producers should be cautious in what they are paying for cattle. Most cattle that are purchased “correctly” have a good chance of a positive return. Cattle that are chased by buyers make it much more difficult to close in the black. All producers should be watching for opportunities to hedge cattle if a profitable price presents itself. This includes cow-calf and stocker producers alike. The futures market moved strongly higher on Tuesday before slipping lower the remainder of the week. This is the kind of opportunity to consider.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
A question was asked this week concerning per capita consumption of beef domestically. This was not the correct question in that this person was really asking about beef demand. Per capita consumption in the United States is generally between 55 and 60 pounds per person. This value is calculated by taking domestic beef production and adding beef imports to that value and subtracting beef exports and then dividing by population. This value does provide information concerning quantity of product available, but it does not answer what this person was attempting to ask. This person wanted to know what consumers were doing as it relates to beef purchases given relatively high beef prices. From a historical perspective, beef demand has been strong the past several years and remains strong in 2026. Higher beef prices are meant to ration consumption, which is has done. However, the consumer has demonstrated with their spending patterns that they like beef and are willing to pay record prices for it.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –October $224.98 +3.10; December $227.05 +3.50; February $229.48 +3.63; Feeder cattle –October $343.85 +5.83; November $341.95 +7.08; January $336.35 +7.93; March $332.18 +7.95; December corn closed at $4.80 down 21 cents from Thursday.