by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
October 16, 2026
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle traded $2 to $3 higher on a live basis. Prices on a live basis were mainly $220 to $223 and $350 to $355 dressed.
The 5-area weighted average prices through Thursday were $222.37 live, up $3.27 from last week and $353.17 dressed, up $7.60 from a week ago. A year ago, prices were $239.73 live and $373.23 dressed.
Finished cattle trade was not well established as of this writing as more cattle were expected to trade on Friday. Bid prices on Friday were higher than anything trading earlier in the week, which means the cattle feeder has a product the packer needs. In other words, the cattle feeder has likely gained leverage compared to the past few weeks. This is certainly a tough pill for packers to swallow as they are paying more for the input and receiving less for the output. The cattle feeder and the packer will be playing chess instead of checkers the next several months as managing slaughter levels and beef production will be key for packers and managing cattle on feed will be important for feedlots.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $373.19 down $0.79 from Thursday and down $1.51 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $353.03 up $0.41 from Thursday and down $2.99 from last week. The Choice Select spread was $20.16 compared to $18.68 a week ago.
The retail price of Choice beef in September was $9.94 per pound, which is $0.29 per pound lower than August and the lowest retail Choice beef price since January. The all fresh beef price in September was $9.47 per pound, which is a $0.20 per pound decline from August and the lowest all fresh retail price of beef since October 2025. There is no doubt President Trump will take credit for lower beef prices since September was the first month associated with his announcement of allowing more beef imports at an “in-quota” tariff rate. However, all the credit cannot be attributed to this policy change as most of these imports would not be in the marketplace and available for consumption. Speaking more directly to ground beef, which was the thrust of the import policy, ground beef prices were lower in September compared to August across the board. The price of ground chuck was down 4.3 percent while lean and extra lean ground beef and all uncooked ground beef prices were down 1.3 percent from the previous month. Similar trends hold for the retail price of muscle cuts.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction market average prices, steer prices were $3 to $7 higher compared to last week, while heifer prices were $3 to $6 higher compared to the previous week. Slaughter cow prices were $2 to $4 lower this week compared to a week ago while slaughter bull prices were $3 to $4 lower compared to last week. The calf market is moving contra seasonally this week while slaughter cow and bull markets are following a seasonal tendency. It has become increasingly difficult to predict the direction of cattle prices in the current environment. The probability of predicting an exact price of cattle is practically zero and has always been that way. However, the probability of predicting the direction of price movement was never less than 33.3 percent, because prices can only do one of three things including increasing, decreasing or stay the same. Generally, predicting the direction of cash cattle prices was greater than one out of three, because a person could count on seasonal tendencies and market fundamentals to lead the though process. This is not to say market fundamentals and seasonal tendencies have been thrown out with the bath water. Rather, the market appears to be dominated by policy maker statements, futures trading, domestic and international political unrest, input market disruptions and environmental conditions. These factors and likely others are influencing how market participants view the outlook of the industry. With this thought in mind, many producers with spring calving cow herds have a decision to make as they approach weaning and marketing. Many producers will attempt to time the market in some form or fashion, and hitting the top will be a factor of luck, having cattle ready to market, and the blessings of the Good Lord. For all other producers that are not attempting to time the market, now is a good time to consider what management and marketing practices can be employed to capture cattle value.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
No matter how logical a person thinks their thought process is, there will always be someone who holds the opposing view. Generally speaking, high cattle prices encourage cow-calf producers to grow the breeding herd if environmental conditions allow for such expansion. Alternatively, lower cattle prices generally encourage cow-calf producers to reduce the size of the breeding herd. Despite this being the conventional thought process, there are a few cow-calf producers who respond differently to these price signals. A producer made a statement at a meeting this week that he would hold on to more heifers this year if cattle prices continue to decline. The thought process is, if the market is going to “under value” the cattle then this producer would rather own the cattle. This may seem to be a contrarian way of thinking to many, but this is how this producer views the situation. This is not written to credit or discredit a thought process, but it is meant to point out there are always folks that go against the grain of what is thought to be “normal” decision making.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –October $227.55 +1.60; December $228.35 +1.10; February $230.88 +1.25; Feeder cattle –October $343.65 +0.25; November $341.90 -0.05; January $338.28 +0.38; March $334.35 +0.55; December corn closed at $4.74 down 4 cents from Thursday.