by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
August 1, 2025
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle traded $3 higher compared to last week. Prices in the South were mainly $235 to $236 while dressed prices were mainly $383 to $384.
The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $242.69 live, $11.19 compared to a week ago and $383.60 dressed with no comparison to last week. A year ago, prices were $194.68 live and $309.71 dressed.
Cattle feeders are reminding packers who has the leverage in this market, or maybe they are remining them who does not have the leverage. Sometimes such statements can make it sound like it is a war between packers and feedlot managers, but both parties are simply trying to make a living and get the most out of their business just like anyone else. It just so happens that packers held leverage over cattle feeders for several years and the profits rolled in for the packing sector. Now the tables have turned and cattle feeders are able to return the favor to packers by forcing them to pay higher prices. This is just like those guys with muscles in their ear lobes, this too shall pass. But, it is not going to pass anytime soon.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $364.15 up $2.83 from Thursday and down $3.31 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $340.60 down $0.77 from Thursday and down $5.01 from a week ago. The Choice Select spread was $23.55 compared to $21.85 a week ago.
The price freefall for wholesale beef prices slowed this week despite packers continuing to pay strong prices for finished cattle. It is probably not an enjoyable talking point for packers when the highlight is prices not declining at the same pace as they have the past few weeks, but there is hope around the corner. That hope comes in the form of the last grilling holiday of the year on the horizon. Labor Day weekend purchases will be on the front burner the next few weeks as many consumers will look end summer with a bang. At the same time, beef production appears to be slowing. Thus, the market has been primarily driven by strong beef demand, but the supply side will begin to play a larger role in beef price support if beef production continues to decline moving through the remainder of the year. The supply side will continue garnering more attention as fewer heifers are placed in feedlots and cow slaughter continues to decline. This will bring on some of the tightest beef supplies in over a decade, which will be telling in and of itself.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction reports, steer prices were unevenly steady compared to last week while heifer prices were $2 to $3 higher than a week ago. Slaughter cow prices were $1 to $3 higher than the previous week while bull prices were $1 to $2 higher than a week ago. The statement concerning feeder cattle futures from last week concerning their surge through July continued through the first three days of this week, but the market wiped out the three day $7 plus gain on Thursday before finding a little footing on Friday. Despite the market volatility, several loads of cattle were marketed in Tennessee this week through both weekly auctions and dedicated video sales. There was a clear premium for loads of all black cattle compared to loads with mixed colors. For instance, a load of 677 pound steers brought $2,576 per head ($380.50 per hundredweight). Without being too specific on the other loads, 725 to 790 pound steers brought $2,550 to $2,650 per head, 800 to 890 pound steers were valued at $2,694 to $2,890 per head, and 900 to 950 pound steers were valued from $2,880 to $2,937 per head. One does not want to leave out the heifers as several loads of heifers weighing between 710 and 750 were valued between $2,298 and $2,429 per head. The market continues to pay producers to add weight to cattle. This does not mean all is equal as adding weight to some weight classes is more lucrative than others, but adding weight has less risk than making a trade in many instances. These are certainly record prices for the region, but they are not unexpected given how cattle have been trading. The July 1, 2025 cattle inventory report was released last Friday and contained information that would continue to support feeder cattle prices. The data estimated a smaller calf crop and few signs of heifer retention and beef cow herd expansion. The January 1, 2026 cattle inventory report may indicate a slightly larger beef cow herd, but it will be a marginal increase. This supports prices for another 18 months or so.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
A couple of weeks ago an industry professional in the state asked me to compile some information on feeder cattle receipts going through reported auction markets in Tennessee. Thus, we looked at 2023, 2024 and the first six months of 2025. In 2023, there were 315,209 head of feeder cattle that were marketed through reported auctions in Tennessee while there were 312,979 head marketed in 2024. Where the information gets interesting is when only the first six months of the year are compared. There were 162,261 head of feeder cattle marketed in Tennessee reported auctions the first six months of 2023 compared to 147,335 head in 2024 over the same time period while the quantity the first six months of 2025 totaled 164,444. Given the general thought that the calf crop was smaller and there are fewer cattle, it is tough to rectify an increase in 2025 relative to the two previous years. The one thing that was not accounted for is if there was a change in the number of auctions being reported.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –August $230.13 +2.35; October $223.68 +0.53; December $224.43 +0.50; Feeder cattle –August $334.58 +3.20; September $333.93 +2.38; October $331.85 +1.68; November $328.98 +1.03; September corn closed at $3.90 down 5 cents from Thursday.