by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
October 24, 2025
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle traded steady to $2 lower this week compared to a week ago on a live basis. Prices on a live basis were mainly $238 to $240 while dressed prices were mainly $370 to $372.
The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $239.03 live, down $0.70 compared to a week ago and $370.41 dressed down $2.82 compared to last week. A year ago, prices were $187.53 live and $296.22 dressed.
Late week uncertainty in the cattle markets resulted in later week trades being softer than trades earlier in the week. Thus, being a little proactive this week netted feedlots a few more dollars per head than holding out for later in the week. This of course could have been reversed so the decision to let them go early or holding them until later in the week is simply a day-to-day decision. In the world of reality, who could have guessed live cattle futures would hit such a large bump in the road? At this point, most would say there are more bumps ahead of the market than behind the market, but smooth sailing could also be in store. Feeding cattle is easy when prices are increasing. It is a little more difficult when the market is sideways or lower.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $375.90 up $2.76 from Thursday and up $8.90 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $357.61 up $2.87 from Thursday and up $7.25 from a week ago. The Choice Select spread was $18.29 compared to $16.64 a week ago.
As the country prepares to import more beef from international sources, the question is what quantity of that will come in the form of prime rib, filets, New York strips, chuck roasts, or any other muscle cuts? The most probable answer is that those quantities will not change. All of those cuts exist in the cattle originating in other countries, but they do not meet the standards of the domestic consumer to be sold as muscle cuts in the domestic market. Thus, the high valued cuts of beef will certainly maintain their price levels and be impacted very little if at all when more beef is imported. In fact, muscle cut prices will soon gain momentum as the domestic consumer will be preparing for the holiday season. The focus in the near term will be on Thanksgiving meals, which typically do not highlight beef, but retailers and food service participants will certainly be dabbling in the beef market before the Thanksgiving holiday. It will then pick up more steam immediately after Thanksgiving as Christmas and the New Year holiday tend to be beef eating holidays.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction reports, steer prices were steady to $3 higher compared to last week while heifer prices were steady to $4 lower compared to a week ago. Slaughter cow prices were steady to $2 higher compared to the previous week while bull prices were steady compared to a week ago. The story this week is similar to last week as the futures market seems to be the talk of the town, or it is at least the focus of many cattle producer conversations. Limit moves or close to limit moves are beginning to be normal. Just because they are becoming more common place does not mean it makes anything easier to navigate. In fact, the futures market has introduced as much uncertainty as President Trump and his administration. First, it is important to say that feeder cattle prices are not bad or low or unprofitable despite being $20 to $30 per hundredweight off their life of contract highs. In fact, most feeder cattle futures contracts are still $50 to $60 per hundredweight higher than they were in May. Regardless of price level, the reason traders have gone off the rails is because some of them know about as much about cattle production, international trade, biological constraints, rocket science, and brain surgery as President Trump and his team. In fact, all these people know the industry so well that the President making some policy decisions that will unlikely achieve his objective in the short-run have them scurrying to cover their rear ends, because they are afraid they will end up getting shot there just like Forrest Gump. This is certainly an overdramatization on my part, but even more so on the traders’ part. Industry participants should be patient in this situation. This is encouragement to not make any rash decisions that could influence the long-term viability of an operation. Just as the sun comes up and the sun goes down, this world will keep spinning around. The same holds for the cattle markets. Cattle may or may not be overvalued, but one thing is for sure and that is futures trade can be irrational at certain moments.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
The questions concerning the Trump administration and their plans with Argentinian beef have been at the top of the list this week. As it relates to Argentinian beef, Dr. Derrell Peel at Oklahoma State University provided some tremendous insight supported by data in the weekly Cow-Calf Corner newsletter. At this moment it is appropriate to provide some simple and direct statements to ease concerns and/or fears. There are certainly policy changes that can be made to support an increase in domestic beef production. However, none of those policy changes will result in a short-run change to beef and cattle prices. From an international trade standpoint, policy can be changed to reduce the barriers to importing more beef, but nearly all of that beef will be lean grinding beef, which means ground beef products. Thus, it may marginally result in a decrease in the cost of beef at “Sir Burger Doodle”, but consumers will not know the difference. Increasing imports is not going to change the price of high-valued cuts such as steaks or other muscle cuts.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –October $233.75 -5.98; December $233.93 -7.25; February $233.43 -7.25; Feeder cattle –October $354.30 -9.05; November $352.20 -9.25; January $348.18 -9.25; March $345.05 -9.25; December corn closed at $4.23 down 5 cents from Thursday.