by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
June 27, 2025
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle traded $4 to $5 lower in the South and $8 lower in the North compared to last week. Prices in the South were mainly $224 to $2225 while dressed prices were mainly $368 to $370.
The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $227.91 live, down $8.29 compared to a week ago and $369.10 dressed, down $7.51 from last week. A year ago, prices were $193.92 live and $314.85 dressed.
The bear has finally overcome the bull in the finished cattle market. How long the bear can out compete the bull is not known, but this week certainly indicates weakness can enter the finished cattle market. It was mentioned last week that cattle feeders were probably expecting a softening in finished cattle prices as prices tend to seasonally decline during the summer months. What may not have been expected was the pace of the decline in one week. This is just one week of cattle trade so there is certainly no trend to support prices seasonally declining, but the odds are certainly in favor of prices declining further for finished cattle. The hope is that the pace of decline is much slower than what was experienced this week.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $396.19 up $1.14 from Thursday and up $5.84 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $382.26 up $2.52 from Thursday and up $6.11 from a week ago. The Choice Select spread was $13.92 compared to $14.20 a week ago.
Up, up and away is the terminology that applies to boxed beef prices in the current environment. Most markets have a temporary ceiling that can be identified. However, at this particular point in time, it is difficult to determine where the boxed beef market’s temporary ceiling is. The word temporary is used because boxed beef prices will continue to increase as inflationary pressure has tended to persist over the centuries. The same can be said with price floors, but the market has been increasing, which is why the discussion is on a temporary price ceiling. The market has not found that price point yet. One may think the $400 mark would demonstrate resistance to wholesale buyers, but the strength of the bullish beef market would indicate it is just another mark. If Choice boxed beef prices fail to push past $400 then some will say it was resistance, but it could just be the market ran out of steam. Alternatively, if the market exceeds $400 then market observers will have something else to discuss. In short, the beef market is strong and appears to stay that way for a while.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction reports, steer prices this week were $7 to $13 lower compared to last week while heifer prices were $7 to $12 lower compared to the previous week. Slaughter cow prices were $1 to $2 lower compared to a week ago while slaughter bull prices were steady compared to last week. This week’s cattle trade marked the first week of significantly lower calf prices dating back to the fourth quarter of 2024. This softening of prices could be the start of seasonally lower prices, or it may be the result of buyers not wanting to receive high risk calves during the heat wave that has dominated a large portion of the country. It appears the temperatures are going to moderate as well as a moderation in humidity next week, but the slightly lower temperatures and humidity will still register as “H-O-T, hot”. Despite the lower prices this week, 550-pound steer calves are still bringing $1,900 per head with preconditioned calves of the same weight demanding a $15 to $20 per hundredweight premium, which places them around $2,000 per head. This slight decline in prices is not detrimental to profitability in the cow-calf sector as cow-calf profits look to set a record in 2025. If this is the start of seasonally lower prices for calves then it provides insight into what cattle prices will be during the fall marketing time period. A typical decline from the spring and summer highs of calf prices in Tennessee may range from 10 to 20 percent but a 13 to 15 percent decline from the apex to the lowest price in the fall is average. Thus, this information would indicate 550-pound steer prices in Tennessee could decline to $315 to $320 per hundredweight during the peak of fall marketing. What should be noted here is this represents the single lowest priced week of that marketing time period. Additionally, the market is in much different conditions this year than in previous years, and there should be several factors supporting cattle prices the second half of the year. This does provide a price point though for those interested.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
Can I afford (fill in the blank)? This is a question that people ask frequently when trying to determine if they should purchase something or not. A question that should also be asked at the same time is “Can I afford not to (fill in the blank)?” There are always things a farming operation’s decision makers are going to say they cannot afford based on the current financial situation. However, there are times when those purchases must be made for the longer-term financial wellness of an operation. When the answers to these two questions contradict each other, it is important to evaluate alternatives to achieving the same objective, which may take the form of hiring custom work, taking on more land, getting rid of land, or any number of management decisions. Regardless, it is important to evaluate if something is a good investment or not. A simple example would be investing in good livestock working facilities. Do the facilities reduce the probability of injury to workers and livestock? Do the facilities reduce the quantity of time to process livestock.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –June $224.75 +3.05; August $213.30 +4.10; October $209.83 +3.48; Feeder cattle –August $307.90 +4.60; September $307.90 +4.53; October $305.73 +4.30; November $303.03 +4.15; July corn closed at $4.18 up 8 cents from Thursday.