by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
March 7, 2025
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle traded steady to $1 lower on a live basis compared to last week. Prices were mainly $196 to $198 on a live basis. Dressed trade was mainly $312 to $315.
The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $196.69 live, down $1.05 compared to last week and $312.93 dressed, up $0.16 from a week ago. A year ago, prices were $185.15 live and $293.22 dressed.
Cattle feeders and packers are struggling to get on the same page as it relates to finished cattle prices. Part of that problem could be due to live cattle futures bouncing around like a four-year old on a pogo stick. Packers are probably regretful they did not get business done earlier in the week while live cattle futures were slightly depressed while cattle feeders are glad they did not let go of any cattle until the end of the week. April live cattle futures pushed back north of $200, which is probably where the market is going to play for several months. This does not mean cattle prices will not far exceed $200 at some point in the near term, but there will be expectations of any runs in finished cattle prices to be followed by declines back to $200.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $314.31 up $1.19 from Thursday and up $2.49 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $306.09 up $2.58 from Thursday and up $2.01 from a week ago. The Choice Select spread was $8.22 compared to $9.76 a week ago.
Lean grinding beef is always in demand in the United States. Given the current market dynamics with a reduced cattle herd and reduced cow slaughter, there is less lean grinding beef being produced domestically. The two primary domestic sources of lean grinding beef are 90 percent lean beef from slaughter cows and 50 percent lean grinding beef from finished steers and heifers. The price of fresh 90 percent lean beef is close to $380 per hundredweight. Through the first nine weeks of 2025, the price of fresh 90 percent lean beef has averaged $71 higher than the same weeks in 2024. This trend is likely to persist as very few slaughter cows from the beef herd are expected to be marketed in 2025. The price of fresh 50 percent lean is close to $110 per hundredweight and is averaging nearly $21 higher on a week to week basis compared to the same weeks in 2024. Thus, the percentage increase in both categories is close to the same. Domestic production of lean grinding beef will be a challenge, which will result in strong imports of such beef.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction reports, steer prices this week were $4 to $9 higher compared to last week while heifer prices were $2 to $5 higher than the previous week. Slaughter cow prices were $1 to $3 lower than a week ago with slaughter bull prices being $1 to $2 lower than last week. Several loads of cattle were traded in Tennessee this week with some rather strong prices. For instance, three loads of 635 pound all black steers traded for $334.50 per hundredweight, which is $2,124 per head. Several loads of steers weighing between 840 and 875 pounds were sold with prices ranging from $255.25 per hundredweight to $265.50 per hundredweight. This provided a range of values between $2,230 to $2,292 per head. Similarly, several loads of steers with an average weight ranging from 910 to 940 sold for prices ranging from $254.75 per hundredweight to $261 per hundredweight. These prices and weights result in an average value per head between $2,340 and $2,395. The primary observation in these strong prices is the market is paying producers to add weight. It seems logical feedlot managers are willing to pay for added pounds as they are carrying cattle to much heavier weights. In today’s market, cattle feeders are growing calves to 1,500 pounds, which means 900-pound steers still need 600 pounds before they are market ready in most instances. At the same time, there will be competition from some feedlots for lighter weight cattle as they look to keep pens full, but all feedlots are not looking to take on the added health risk of lighter weight animals that have not been through the stocker or backgrounding stages of production. On the front end of this market, 550-pound steers coming straight off the cow averages $1,815 per head in Tennessee this week. Thus, there is $500 to $600 of value in providing a health program and putting 350 to 400 pounds of weight on these animals if the market remains the same. One thing is clear in all circumstances, there is a lot of money invested in these animals.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
At a meeting this week, there was considerable discussion concerning starting a farming operation and hay productions place in an operation. The conversations started in a good manner, but I could have handled them both in a better manner. The main takeaway from these conversations other than I still need to improve in several areas of life was that many people maintain an idea of what is familiar and comfortable. In other words, people do not always recognize there can be more than one way to achieve an objective. Being closeminded and having an unwillingness to consider change is a self-inflicted barrier. At the same time a person is considering new technologies or methods, it is also appropriate to consider and institute old methods and technologies. There are many practices from decades ago that are still beneficial today and they should be used alongside some of the newer technologies and methods. With that said, we all have areas we need to improve as it relates to agriculture but more importantly how we interact with people.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –April $200.28 +4.00; June $196.48 +3.85; August $194.35 +3.38; Feeder cattle –March $276.98 +2.95; April $278.15 +3.73; May $278.20 +4.35; August $281.08 +3.88; March corn closed at $4.55 up 6 cents from Thursday.