by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
April 2, 2026
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle trade was not established at time of publication. Bid prices on a live basis were $238 to $242 while bids on a dressed basis were at mainly $378.
Finished cattle trade was once again slow to establish this week. One would have thought some cattle feeders and packers would want to get business done earlier this week with many people celebrating Good Friday and Easter. Both parties know the futures market will be closed for Good Friday, which means there will be little to no information to drive a change in price expectations. However, none of this seems to be of concern as both parties were at a stalemate. It is clear cattle feeders remain in the driver’s seat as it relates to finished cattle, but they are not in the driver’s seat when it comes to replacement cattle. This is certainly the cow-calf producer’s market and will continue to be so for a few years.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Thursday, the Choice cutout was $390.43 down $3.99 from Wednesday and down $3.66 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $387.68 down $4.91 from Thursday and down $4.21 from last week. The Choice Select spread was $2.75 compared to $2.20 a week ago.
Beef prices slipped a little further this week just as they did last week. The one change on the horizon is the end of the Lenten season. Some religions reduce consumption of meat items during the Lenten season, which could lead to lower prices for beef during the six and half week season. However, this season ends with the Easter celebration. Does this mean beef consumption will pick up next week and heading into the summer grilling season? The expectation is that it will begin to increase as it will be supported by the end of Lent and the grilling season. It likely does not matter which one will have the most impact, but the desire to kick off summer tends to be on the top of the list for many consumers. As industry experts develop expectations for the strongest beef demand months, it is unlikely beef prices will escalate at the same rate they did a year ago, but they do not have to increase at the same rate for beef industry participants to benefit. Beef demand has been strong and is expected to remain strong in 2026.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction market average prices, steer prices were $3 to $6 lower than last week, while heifer prices were steady to $3 lower compared to the previous week. Slaughter cow prices were $3 to $7 higher this week compared to a week ago while slaughter bull prices were $4 to $6 higher compared to last week. Two consecutive weeks result is two different results. Calf prices last week strengthened significantly compared to the previous week, but the price for those calves this week declined considerably. It is extremely difficult to explain this price movement on a cash basis for lightweight calves considering feeder cattle futures are $11 per hundredweight higher than last Friday and $21 per hundredweight higher than two weeks ago. This brings to question if buyers of lightweight cattle are beginning to realize it will be difficult to turn a reasonable profit for these calves given the investment. There is still margin to be turned into profit with current prices, but managing death loss is more important than ever and the expected return on investment is poor. To provide a simple example, a 500-pound steer is valued at $2,500 per head in Tennessee this week. Each one percent increase in death loss adds $25 per head to the cost. Thus, a four percent death loss would have the cost per head near $2,600. Assuming the animal is sold weighing 800 pounds in August, the animal would be valued at $2,960, which leaves $360 to put 300 pounds of gain on each animal. This leaves an extremely small margin with which to achieve a profit. The return on investment for most producers will be between three and seven percent, which is not acceptable when the same money could be earning six percent with a certificate of deposit at the bank. From the perspective of producers borrowing money, there is little to no room for a profit after paying the interest expense and for their labor. Every business must weigh what an acceptable return is on the investment, and this is one that is tough to swallow.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
Can a person get started in the cattle business today and be profitable? A similar question is if a person can be profitable when expanding the cattle operation size, given the relatively high cattle prices. The simple answer is yes. The more complicated answer also includes “it depends.” From a business or investment standpoint, it is generally not advised to buy into something when it is at its peak. However, there is no guarantee the cattle market is at its peak. It is at record high price levels though. Despite this, a person can invest in cattle today and manage to return a profit based on available resources and market savviness. Alternatively, a person could lose more money in the cattle business today than ever before due to record high prices. This will lead readers to ask what animals should they be purchasing and selling to be profitable. The answer is to sell every animal most market participants are looking for and buy the animals few people are looking for. Bred females or cow-calf pairs seem to be the hottest commodity now.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Thursday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –April $246.20 +2.15; June $246.33 +1.98; August $242.18 +1.50; Feeder cattle –April $372.90 +2.15; May $370.63 +2.63; August $369.50 +2.65; September $367.33 +2.60; May corn closed at $4.52 down 2 cents from Wednesday.