by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
October 30, 2026
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle traded $3 to $4 lower on a live basis compared to last week. Prices on a live basis were primarily $223 to $225 while dressed prices were mainly $349 to $353 dressed.
The 5-area weighted average prices through Thursday were $223.95 live, down $3.13 from last week and $352.50 dressed, down $5.17 from a week ago. A year ago, prices were $230.02 live and $358.49 dressed.
The 5-area report now includes all five regions (eight states) once again. Some regions could not be reported due to confidentiality guidelines but that has been resolved by reporting Colorado, Kansas, and Texas/Oklahoma/New Mexico together. This allows for a more robust representation of negotiated cattle trade in the major feeding regions. Thus, data from more finished cattle transactions will be recorded to improve transparency as cattle feeders and packers negotiate trade each week. This should result in a larger head count since Colorado has not been reported since the last week of 2022. With that being said, cattle feeders challenged this week and will face similar challenges next week given the futures market collapse on Friday.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $366.88 down $0.40 from Thursday and down $0.76 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $353.28 up $1.65 from Thursday and up $3.33 from last week. The Choice Select spread was $13.60 compared to $17.69 a week ago.
The beef cutout continues to struggle as the market moves into November. However, beef is not the only meat protein disappointed in the current market. The pork cutout hit $104 per hundredweight in July but now sits in the mid $70s, which is the lowest level since the first week of 2021. Every primal of the pork carcass has declined over this time period, but the belly is leading the cutout lower. The price of bellies has lost nearly $80 per hundredweight since early August. The ham and rib primal price have declined about $40 since early July while the butt primal value has been declining since May and lost about $40. The loin and picnic prices have only declined about $12 per hundredweight during the same time period. November is typically the time of the turkey as Thanksgiving approaches, but there are still many households that make ham the centerpiece. The ham primal is at its lowest level since February 2022 while the picnic as at its lowest price since December 2021. Belly prices are at their lowest level since June 2023 with loins at the lowest level since December 2023.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction market average prices, steer prices were $2 to $6 higher compared to last week, while heifer prices were unevenly steady compared to the previous week. Slaughter cow prices were $1 to $2 lower this week compared to a week ago while slaughter bull prices were steady to $2 lower compared to last week. Weekly auction markets reported strong receipts this week as producers continue to pull calves out of pastures and introduce them to all their neighbors’ cattle at the local auction barn. The calf market has succumbed to some degree of the seasonal price decline that is typical of the fourth quarter of the year. However, it does not appear the seasonal decline has been as large as historical tendencies would predict. Part of this could be due to the futures market price action since the end of June. Using November feeder cattle futures as the example, feeder cattle futures peaked in late June before finding a bottom two months later at the end of August. The November contract price declined nearly $60 per hundredweight over that two-month period and have spent the past two months recapturing two-thirds of the loss (until today’s losses). The futures market price action resulted in calf prices declining to a greater degree in the third quarter than the fourth quarter. Thus, lack of a seasonal price decline in the fall months can most likely be attributed to a larger price decline in the summer months than is typical and the fact feeder cattle futures have been pushing higher when calf prices are typically slipping. That being said, it appears the market is in favor of price support for calves and feeder cattle. It is clear how quickly the market can turn as the past four months of price movement have demonstrated. A change in market price is similar to drought. No one is looking for or expecting a drought on the day it starts. However, it becomes evident drought is present when it has not rained for a while. The same with a shift in cattle price direction. A couple of weeks of lower prices is no concern, but six months of lower prices will grab attention.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
Not every cow is created equal, but there are certainly cattle producers who do not differentiate. As cattle producers across the nation consider their willingness and ability to retain or purchase breeding females, there are considerations with regard to what animals should be retained or purchased. In general, producers use phenotypic characteristics to make breeding female decisions, but it is also useful to utilize genetic information and prior management information that is available. This stems from a couple of conversations of what people are paying for bred females and the range has been extremely wide. However, the lower priced animals were dairy cross females and the higher priced females were phenotypically desirable for a beef cow herd and serviced via artificial insemination. This information explains the majority of the variation. What it does not do is predict profitability of the cow. It is difficult to know which cows will be more profitable, but I doubt the profitability will be the same. Thus, they are not equal.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –December $220.95 -5.35; February $224.20 -5.28; April $226.63 -5.45; Feeder cattle –November $337.78 -8.70; January $331.78 -10.18; March $327.28 -10.50; April $325.53 -10.58; December corn closed at $4.48 down 4 cents from Thursday.