by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
October 3, 2025
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle traded $2 to $3 lower this week compared to a week ago on a live basis. Prices on a live basis were mainly $229 to $232 while dressed prices were mainly $359 to $360.
The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $229.96 live, down $2.52 compared to a week ago and $359.72 dressed down $5.25 compared to last week. A year ago, prices were $187.03 live and $299.67 dressed.
Finished cattle prices were softer again this week as they have followed some of the seasonal tendencies of the fall time period. There are some who will denounce seasonal tendencies, but seasonality occurs due to human behavior. For instance, there are not a lot of people heading to the river to ski during the winter months. Similarly, there are not as many people grilling steaks in October as there are in July. Thus, seasonal trends seem to appear no matter what the price level. Seasonality does play a role in the market, and it is important to recognize the role and act accordingly. This means there will continue to be some seasonal softness to the finished cattle market the next several weeks, but it will not last forever.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $362.95 down $0.27 from Thursday and down $9.52 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $345.59 up $2.19 from Thursday and down $7.61 from a week ago. The Choice Select spread was $17.36 compared to $19.27 a week ago.
The retail price of Choice beef in August was $9.85 per pound while the all-fresh retail price of beef was $9.18 per pound. This compares to $8.52 per pound for Choice beef one year ago and $8.16 per pound for the all-fresh beef price from August 2024. Thus, the retail price of Choice beef has increased 15.7 percent over the past year while the all-fresh retail price of beef has increased 12.6 percent. The retail price of pork on the other hand has only increased 2.2 percent over the same time period from $4.90 to $5.01 per pound. Similarly, the broiler retail price has only increased 4.4 percent over the past year from $1.99 per pound to $2.08 per pound. Relative prices are often a topic when discussing meat prices, but it is abundantly clear that pork and chicken are poor substitutes for beef as consumers continue to pull beef off the shelf despite pork and chicken being relatively cheaper than beef today compared to a year ago. The retail price of beef is not expected to continue climbing at such a rapid pace, but they will likely be sustained for several more months.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction reports, steer prices were unevenly steady compared to last week while heifer prices were also unevenly steady compared to a week ago. Slaughter cow prices were steady to $2 lower compared to the previous week while bull prices were $2 to $4 lower compared to a week ago. It was a bit of a mixed week across the weekly auction markets. Some sales in Tennessee experienced higher prices than a week ago while others experienced lower prices week-over-week. This could have certainly been spurred by the jostling in the futures market as there were some price swings from day to day. What is fairly evident is that there is a demand for the cattle coming into the marketplace. There are certainly some who do not want to pay the price that it takes to secure them, but there are plenty of folks willing to pay what is necessary to take them back home. Based on load lot sales this week, the price of yearling cattle are a few dollars higher than they were in August, but lower than what they were priced in September. The market had already been demonstrating some signs of a plateau, but this information provides another data point that the market may have already peaked. It would be an extremely strong statement at this juncture to say the market has already hit its apex, but a sustained plateau of prices at this level still means strong cattle prices. The reason calling a top would be a strong statement is because supply will tighten even more when producers demonstrate they are retaining heifers. This will mean fewer cattle on feed and thus a reduction in beef production. Even if calf and feeder cattle prices have peaked, one cannot be so certain slaughter cow prices or even breeding stock prices have peaked. There is still time for the market to push higher on these two classes of cattle. Not to negate the previous statements, but seasonal softness always appears this time of year, which means another peak in prices is still possible if not likely!
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
I asked a question this week of several livestock economists this week concerning why they thought deferred feeder cattle futures are trading at such steep discounts compared to the current feeder cattle cash prices. For instance, the nearby futures contract price is in the mid $350s while the January contract is $8 back and the August 2026 contract is trading $15 behind current prices. There was no good response for this situation. This is not due to a lack of knowledge and understanding of the market. In fact, most of the folks in the discussion agree they expect prices in 2026 to be comparable to those being experienced in 2025. The reason I think there is such a discount is simply the uncertainty in the market. When something is trading at a record price and when uncertainty abounds, there is a risk premium figured on everything. In this case, the risk associated with time is the driver. What all can happen in three months, eight months or even a year. These contracts will increase in price with time.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –October $231.03 +0.50; December $234.50 +1.03; February $236.83 +0.88; Feeder cattle –October $357.18 +2.88; November $355.43 +3.03; January $349.73 +2.55; March $346.00 +2.40; December corn closed at $4.19 down 3 cents from Thursday.