by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
November 6, 2026
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle traded $6 to $8 lower on a live basis compared to last week. Prices on a live basis were primarily $216 to $218 while dressed prices were mainly $339 to $340 dressed.
The 5-area weighted average prices through Thursday were $216.52 live, down $7.43 from last week and $339.66 dressed, down $12.84 from a week ago. A year ago, prices were $228.97 live and $358.33 dressed.
It was a bad week for cattle feeders as negotiated finished cattle prices moved sharply lower. The one positive would be cash prices only declined half as much as live cattle futures. Thus, cattle feeders who had finished cattle hedged would have benefited from a strong basis to the tune of about $100 per head. On the other end, hedged cattle feeders could have been hurt by feeder cattle basis as the cash price of feeder cattle only declined $7 to $8 per hundredweight while feeder cattle futures are $25 per hundredweight lower. This would have led to cattle feeders losing close to $150 per head on a hedged purchase. This means basis changes resulted in a net loss of $50 per head this week for cattle feeders.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $366.88 down $0.83 from Thursday and down $6.15 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $353.28 up $1.07 from Thursday and up $0.11 from last week. The Choice Select spread was $7.35 compared to $13.60 a week ago.
There is plenty of talk that GLP1s have led to an increase in protein demand. This protein demand is not limited to beef, pork and poultry, but include dairy and plant-based protein. However, the focus is generally on meat protein, and the expectation would be for meat protein demand to remain strong due to increased use of GLP1s. The issue that is beginning to rear its head is disposable income. Consumers have clearly demonstrated strong demand for beef the past several years, but inflation of many goods and increasing fuel prices are pulling on consumer disposable income. Packers were unable to push wholesale beef prices higher through the summer and seasonal weakness has been present through the first half of fall. End of the year beef movement will be a key indicator of consumer demand. Failure of good beef movement will indicate consumer unwillingness to pay the retail price while good movement will be positive for the industry. It will be tough for beef demand in 2027 to compete with 2026 beef demand.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction market average prices, steer prices were $3 to $7 lower compared to last week, while heifer prices were $2 to $6 lower compared to the previous week. Slaughter cow prices were $4 to $8 lower this week compared to a week ago while slaughter bull prices were $3 to $5 lower compared to last week. What is happening to the feeder cattle market? The October cattle on feed report would have been considered somewhat bullish for the feeder cattle market, but feeder cattle futures took a dive the last day of October and have continued the same trend the first week of November. As recently as October 28th November feeder cattle futures traded over $350 per hundredweight but within six trading days the same contract traded below $325 per hundredweight. This means the value of an 800 pound feeder calf declined $200 per head in a little over one week. At the same time, the CME feeder cattle index, which is based on actual cash prices has only declined $7 to $8 per hundredweight over the same time period. This can make hedging extremely difficult when basis changes dramatically. On the selling side, those selling feeder cattle could have benefited greatly from the change in basis as they sold at a higher cash price and was able to purchase back feeder cattle futures much cheaper. The opposite is true for cattle feeders who hedged the purchase of feeder cattle. They lost the difference in basis that sellers gained. This is a great example of what causes producers to shift away from the use of futures and options, because the opposite price movement could have just as easily occurred, which would have put more money in the cattle feeders pocket while producers selling feeder cattle would have lost on the trade. Despite this discrepancy, it is still important to note the softness in the calf and feeder cattle market. It is impossible to know when price changes will occur and what the magnitude of that change will be. Anyone who can predict prices can write their own check.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
A question was asked this week concerning fuel and fertilizer prices. The primary question is when fuel and fertilizer prices will soften and how much they will soften. Given there remains a conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, it is unlikely fertilizer prices and fuel prices will decline in the near term. The only benefit now is time is on the side of farmers and hay producers. There will certainly be a demand for fuel between now and spring planting and haying, but the demand for fuel and fertilizer will be soft relative to the growing and harvest season. This means there is some time to work through the challenges associated with the Strait of Hormuz. Given the failure to resolve any issues to this point, the probability of making any progress that will reduce fuel and fertilizer prices is small, but anything can happen with time. Users of fuel and fertilizer should be evaluating their options before spring planting and haying. There is nothing wrong with being prepared for high prices and budgeting for alternative production practices.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –December $214.05 -0.35; February $217.20 -0.43; April $219.85 -0.58; Feeder cattle –November $322.33 -2.73; January $318.38 -1.95; March $313.85 -2.08; April $312.60 -2.15; December corn closed at $4.42 up 2 cents from Thursday.