by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
December 19, 2025
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle traded steady this week compared to a week ago on a live basis. Prices on a live basis were mainly $227 to $228 while dressed prices were mainly $357 to $358.
The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $227.96 live, down $0.16 compared to a week ago and $357.22 dressed up $3.61 compared to last week. A year ago, prices were $194.93 live and $305.67 dressed.
Packers are buying for a short kill week with Christmas falling on a Thursday and will be playing the same game the following week with the New Year holiday. This may mean they are not pressing for cattle given the seasonal slowdown and the inability to operate at capacity with fewer cattle available. Tyson began the domino effect with its announcement of the closure of its Lexington, Nebraska slaughter facility. JBS has since announced it will be closing a value-added facility in Riverside, California. This is the beginning of the consolidation that has been expected. Anyone who thinks this will be the end of such closures or shuttering have their head in the sand. How it impacts finished cattle prices is yet to be determined.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $360.89 up $3.61 from Thursday and up $3.63 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $347.54 up $3.57 from Thursday and up $3.24 from a week ago. The Choice Select spread was $13.35 compared to $12.48 a week ago.
Wholesale beef prices have been anything but stellar leading up to the strongest demand period for the winter months. This is not to say beef prices are bad at the wholesale level or weak or any other negative term. However, it can be disheartening from the standpoint that wholesale beef prices tend to decline moving through January, February, and early March. This means there may not be much to get excited about on the beef front the next few months. The industry is fully aware the retail price of beef will remain elevated during this timeframe despite the softer wholesale price. What will be more telling is how consumers react to beef prices heading into the summer grilling season. Will consumers be willing to demonstrate strong demand for beef in 2026, or will they balk at those prices? This may provide information to cattle producers concerning the need to expand the cattle herd. If consumers decide beef prices are too high then that is a good sign significant herd expansion is not necessary and will only erode profits at the cow-calf level.
OUTLOOK
OUTLOOK: Based on Tennessee weekly auction market averages, steer prices were steady to $5 higher this week compared to last week while heifer prices were steady to $5 higher than the previous week. Slaughter cow prices were steady to $2 higher compared to a week ago while slaughter bull prices were $2 to $3 higher than last week. There was certainly interest in calves this week as many buyers were fully aware it will be three weeks before they can group any large quantity of cattle. The stronger price is a simple function of supply and demand as the desire to purchase calves appears high and the quantity of cattle coming to market the week before Christmas is often muted, which was certainly the case this year. Potential sellers of calves and cows should note that most livestock auctions will be closed the next two weeks so there is no need to make a dry run to the auction market with a trailer full of cattle until after the first of the year. The seasonal softness for freshly weaned calves was also muted this fall as prices did decline for a few weeks, but not to the extent of historical averages or expectations. Thus, what does this mean for price action in January? The typical seasonal pattern is for calf prices to catch fire in January and continue increasing through early April in most years. Could this price increase be less impressive than history would suggest? The answer to that is yet to be determined, but the answer is most likely yes. Thus, calf prices will likely increase moving through the first quarter of 2026, but the increase will not be as pronounced as what history may suggest. The same can be said for the slaughter cow market as the slaughter cow market price has followed a similar trend as the calf price. What is less certain is the feeder cattle market. The yearling market has not followed the calf price trend the past four or five months. If there is a class of cattle that have more upside than others then cattle ready to enter the feedlot are part of that class. Market participants will have to wait a few weeks to find out the direction.
The December cattle on feed report for feedlots with a 1000 head or more capacity indicated cattle and calves on feed as of December 1, 2025 totaled 11.73 million head, down 2.1% compared to a year ago, with the pre-report estimate average expecting a decrease of 1.7%. November placements in feedlots totaled 1.60 million head, down 11.2% from a year ago with the pre-report estimate average expecting placements down 7.6%. November marketing’s totaled 1.52 million head down 11.8% from 2024 with pre-report estimates expecting marketings down 11.6%. Placements on feed by weight: under 700 pounds down 11.5%, 700 to 899 pounds down 11.7%, 900 pounds and over down 8.7%.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
Since the beginning of December, I have participated in at least four or five conversations concerning questionable behavior and ethics in the cattle industry. These conversations have included folks from several different capacities within the cattle industry. Who the conversations were with and the specific topics are not the topic of discussion. What is important is that industry participants remember there are less than honest people in every business. It does not matter if a person is in the business of selling illegal goods, the cattle business, or serving in the clergy. There are unethical people in all aspects of life, and we would all be wise to pay attention to whom we are doing business. Despite the general public having the thought that farmers and ranchers are all honest people, we in the industry understand some in this business are not ethically and morally straight. At the same time, it is also important to remember that people do make honest mistakes, and it is appropriate to extend grace and mercy in those situations.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –December $230.40 +1.98; February $230.80 +2.40; April $230.00 +1.85; Feeder cattle –January $345.60 +5.33; March $339.40 4.80; April $337.60 +4.43; May $334.88 +4.08; March corn closed at $4.44 down 1 cent from Thursday.