by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
September 25, 2026
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle trade was not established at the time of this writing. Asking prices were $228 while bid prices were $220 on a live basis. Bids on a dressed basis were $345.
The 5-area weighted average prices through Thursday were $220.75 live, down $1.42 from last week and $349.43 dressed, down $0.79 from last week. A year ago, prices were $232.48 live and $364.97 dressed.
Who is holding out on cattle trade this week? Is it the packer who is unwilling to make bids in hopes of cattle feeders feeling like they have to sell a pen of cattle instead of holding them over to next week? Or, is it the cattle feeder who is holding out with high ask prices, because they know packers need cattle to operate a slaughter facility? Both sectors are attempting to make money in a time when margins are thin for both and negotiations go both ways. Despite cash trade being slow to develop, cattle will be traded at a price agreed on by both packers and feedlot managers. At this time, no one seems to have trouble feeding cattle to heavier weights and hanging them on the rail as heavier carcasses, but available supply is limited.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $378.09 up $1.97 from Thursday and up $6.76 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $355.25 up $3.15 from Thursday and up $1.55 from last week. The Choice Select spread was $22.84 compared to $17.63 a week ago.
As the beef market moves toward the fourth quarter of 2026 and through a time period of seasonal demand softness, it can be useful to evaluate beef demand up to this point. For starters, the Livestock Marketing Information Center calculates a retail all fresh beef demand index, which stood at 136 for 2025. This value is 10 points higher than 2021 and 2024 and outpaces each of the last 25 years easily. There is something to be said for beef demand in 2025. However, the beef demand index for the first and second quarter of 2026 was 10 points higher than the same time period in 2025. The demand index for the third quarter cannot be calculated yet, but if the trend continues, one can expect the retail all fresh beef demand index in 2026 to be greater than 2025. The beef industry has found the way to the consumer dollar and that is by producing a product that provides a pleasurable eating experience. Consumers are willing to pay for a high-quality product that brings satisfaction. Alternatively, some consumers begrudgingly must trade down to lower value products.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction market average prices, steer prices were unevenly steady compared to last week, while heifer prices were $1 to $9 higher compared to the previous week. Slaughter cow prices were $2 to $5 lower this week compared to a week ago while slaughter bull prices were steady to $2 lower compared to last week. The unevenly steady trend for steer calves primarily represented lightweight freshly weaned calves being lower while heavier calves were slightly stronger week-over-week. Feeder cattle futures have steadied considerably the past few weeks compared to the past several months. Using October feeder cattle futures as the example, since September 1st, the October contract has traded between $312 and $338. From a historical perspective, this is still a wide range for a feeder cattle contract. However, from a recent historical perspective, this is a rather narrow trading range. The $26 trading range would equate to a $208 per head value difference over the 25-day period being evaluated, but the volatility in the market the past year has led to much larger price ranges in a shorter time period than what is being experienced today. This is not a statement to suggest the market is finding equilibrium or to give buyers and sellers a sense of comfort that market prices will stay in this range. In fact, the market is expected to continue experiencing volatility as market participants attempt to determine supply and demand. The market should have a decent grasp on cattle and meat supply potential as well as domestic and international demand. What the market has been challenged with the past few months are political statements and actions that impact supply and demand. On top of that, those political statements and actions have been misguided to some degree in what they will achieve. Again, this is not to say whether they were good decisions or bad decisions, but the statements made that are related to expected outcomes from these decisions seem out of line with what market participants would expect.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
“When should I sell my calves? When are you going to start buying cattle?” These were a couple of questions asked this week while traveling across two-thirds of the state. The question of when to sell calves depends on several factors including weight of the animal; available land, labor and feed resources; cost of those resources; and what one thinks the market is going to do. In relation to when I am going to start buying cattle, the answer is highly dependent on environmental conditions. My farming activities are being drastically influenced by drought conditions as are many other folks. Thus, significant rainfall is necessary for me to even begin considering cattle purchase decisions. It would be great to be purchasing cattle in the current time period given the lower temperatures compared to what was experienced a week ago. The market price seems stable enough to make purchases now compared to a month ago. However, all the stars must align to make a purchasing decision.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –October $218.88 -0.20; December $222.15 +1.05; February $224.30 +1.43; Feeder cattle –October $334.93 +3.18; November $331.98 +3.90; January $324.35 +3.70; March $320.18 +3.58; December corn closed at $5.28 up 1 cent from Thursday.