by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
November 13, 2026
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle trade was not established at the time of press. Bid prices on a live basis were primarily $215 while bid prices were mainly $335 dressed.
The 5-area weighted average prices through Thursday were $212.27 live, down $4.25 from last week and $333.30 dressed, down $6.36 from a week ago. A year ago, prices were $225.35 live and $350.95 dressed.
Cattle feeders are helping themselves by bidding lower for feeder cattle. How much they pay for cattle is about the only part of the business they control. It would appear they are taking a play out of the packer playbook and drawing a line in the sand on what they are willing to pay for cattle to be placed on feed. This is not a bad move, and it may even be considered a wise decision. There always seems to be someone saying packers are colluding or cattle feeders are taking advantage of someone when in fact all packers operate in a similar environment as do most cattle feeders. Thus, packers tend to react the same to market conditions as other packers. The same can be said for cattle feeders in they will respond similarly, which is bidding lower for inventory.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $355.84 down $1.75 from Thursday and down $4.89 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $347.92 down $0.79 from Thursday and down $5.36 from last week. The Choice Select spread was $7.92 compared to $7.35 a week ago.
Packers are continuing to be challenged by wholesale beef prices as they have been unable to stabilize wholesale beef prices. Wholesale Choice boxed beef prices have not been below $350 since May 2025, but if the current trend persists then there is a good probability Choice beef could fall below this support level. Given the market is in the middle of November, there is a chance holiday purchases begin to provide support for Choice beef, but it may take a couple more weeks and the passing of Thanksgiving before end of the year holiday buying takes center stage. There are certainly market analysts who think beef and cattle prices will be higher in 2027 than in 2026, but what has to change and can change to push beef prices higher? Tighter cattle and beef supplies may be able to push beef prices higher, but the 2026 summer grilling season was a disappointment for packers as prices struggled to break the $400 price consistently. The consumer will determine if beef prices and thus cattle prices can exceed 2026 levels.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction market average prices, steer prices were unevenly steady compared to last week, while heifer prices were $1 to $2 lower compared to the previous week. Slaughter cow prices were $1 to $5 lower this week compared to a week ago while slaughter bull prices were $6 to $8 lower compared to last week. Feeder cattle futures spent two months moving lower from the end of June through the end of August and then spent two months recapturing 75 percent of those losses to close out October. Feeder cattle futures then spent eight days declining with losses totaling approximately $28 per hundredweight, which brings the market to this week’s price action. Feeder cattle futures reclaimed more than half of those losses this week, but who knows what a week will bring. The one undeniable fact is basic supply fundamentals in the beef, finished cattle, and feeder cattle markets have not changed. It would also appear little has changed on the beef demand side of the equation. Thus, many market participants are asking what is causing the market volatility and large price swings in a short amount of time. In the simplest of forms, the answer to the question is market participants have been acting in a manner that demonstrates uncertainty. This is uncertainty associated with USDA data and actual supply of cattle, consumer willingness to maintain demand, and expectations of what other producers will do in association with heifer retention. Every market is made up of people and those peoples’ decisions determine price and that is exactly what is happening in the futures market and local cash market. The degree of persistence of this volatility is unknown, but recent price movement would suggest it will continue. Weekly auction market prices for calves in Tennessee are similar to prices from one year ago. Prices are expected to increase in a seasonal pattern after the holidays, but it is unlikely prices will make the same run in early 2027 that they did in 2026.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
What are some signs of cattle herd expansion the market is seeing? The first thoughts are to look at beef cow and heifer slaughter. Beef cow slaughter in 2026 is more than 13 percent lower year-to-date than 2025 while heifer slaughter is about 11 percent lower compared to last year. The next piece of data to consider is the quantity of heifers on feed as a percent of total cattle on feed. Approximately 37.4 percent of the cattle on feed are heifers. This value does not scream heifer retention at the farm level. The next value to consider would be the percentage of heifers in the feeder and stocker cattle receipts through auction markets, direct and video/internet this fall to determine if producers are holding back spring born heifers to utilize as replacements and grow the breeding herd. This data is not complete. However, heifers accounted for 39.3 percent of stockers and feeders at auctions September and October, down 0.4 percent from last year while direct and video/internet are down approximately 6 percent. Hardly evidence of cattle herd expansion!
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –December $220.65 +1.75; February $224.80 +1.85; April $227.90 +1.95; Feeder cattle –November $339.03 +3.35; January $335.35 +3.68; March $332.05 +3.78; April $330.90 +3.65; December corn closed at $4.46 up 3 cents from Thursday.