by Aaron Smith, Crops Marketing Specialist
June 6, 2025
Overview
Cotton, soybeans, and wheat were up; corn was mixed for the week.
June/July is a key time of year to evaluate additional crop inputs (fertilizer, chemicals etc.). When making decisions on input applications it is important to determine if the potential return on investment justifies incurring the added costs or simply put is the expense covered by the projected increase in revenue.
Nitrogen prices have increased dramatically since the start of the year (UAN32 is up $130/ton; $495 in June compared to $365 in January). There are reasons for the dramatic increase in nitrogen prices (tariffs, supply, demand, logistics), but these are all outside the direct control of the farmer. Farmers can control the decision to apply additional fertilizer or chemical or not. To evaluate this decision, it is always best to start with a simple estimation and add complexity from this starting point.
For example, if the decision is to apply 40 lbs of nitrogen per acre and the cost per unit of nitrogen is $0.77 per pound (UAN 32 – $495 / (2000 x 0.32)) and application cost is $15 per acre, then total costs for the additional fertilizer are $45.80 per acre ($30.80 + $15). Assuming the additional nitrogen application will result in an average increase in yield of 20 bushel per acre and the harvest price for corn is $4.25 per bushel results in increased projected revenue of $85.00 per acre (20 x $4.25) and a return on investment of $39.20 per acre (or 86% ROI; $39.20 / $45.80 x 100).
There are obviously additional factors that need to be evaluated to estimate a more accurate return on investment (increased harvest costs, variability in yield response and weather effects, corn price uncertainty etc.). However, complexity to the decision-making process can be added once a simple estimate is completed. Making simple strategic estimates will help inform decision making and increase the likelihood of positive financial outcomes due to in-season input application decisions.
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 99.26 | 99.12 | -0.13 |
| Crude Oil | 60.74 | 64.74 | 4 |
| DJIA | 42,277 | 42,765 | 488 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 5 under to 30 over, with an average of 13 over the July futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending May 30 was 1.105 million barrels per day, up 49,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 24.440 million barrels, up 0.159 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for May 23-29 were net sales of 37.1 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 6.3 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 3% compared to last week at 64.9 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 99% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 98%. Cash prices ranged from $4.34 to $4.70 at elevators and barge points. July 2025 corn futures closed at $4.42, down 2 cents since last Friday. For the week, July 2025 corn futures traded between $4.33 and $4.51. September 2025 corn futures closed at $4.33, up 10 cents since last Friday. Jul/Sep and Jul/Dec future spreads were -9 and 7 cents.
| Corn | Jul 25 | Change | Dec 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.42 | -$0.02 | $4.49 | $0.11 |
| Support | $4.30 | -$0.08 | $4.42 | $0.09 |
| Resistance | $4.50 | -$0.07 | $4.54 | $0.07 |
| 20 Day MA | $4.48 | -$0.04 | $4.43 | $0.00 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.63 | -$0.03 | $4.48 | $0.00 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.76 | -$0.02 | $4.54 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week High | $4.64 | -$0.16 | $4.56 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.33 | -$0.03 | $4.34 | $0.00 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 69% good-to-excellent and 5% poor-to-very poor; corn planted at 93% compared to 87% last week, 90% last year, and a 5-year average of 93%; and corn emerged at 78% compared to 67% last week, 72% last year, and a 5-year average of 77%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 66% good-to-excellent and 11% poor-to-very poor; corn planted at 90% compared to 87% last week, 92% last year, and a 5-year average of 95%; and corn emerged at 82% compared to 76% last week, 81% last year, and a 5-year average of 85%. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.49, up 11 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.45 December 2025 Put Option costing 24 cents establishing a $4.21 futures floor. This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $4.00 to $4.40 at elevators and barge points.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee the average soybean basis remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 40 under to 7 over the July futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 11 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 7.1 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 0.1 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 47% compared to last week at 11.3 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 97% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 99%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.94 to $10.59. July 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.57, up 16 cents since last Friday. For the week, July 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.32 and $10.60. The July soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.39 at the end of the week. August 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.50, up 14 cents since last Friday. Jul/Aug and Jul/Nov future spreads were -7 and -20 cents.
| Soybeans | Jul 25 | Change | Nov 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $10.57 | $0.16 | $10.37 | $0.11 |
| Support | $10.41 | $0.08 | $10.24 | $0.07 |
| Resistance | $10.68 | $0.14 | $10.45 | $0.05 |
| 20 Day MA | $10.55 | $0.00 | $10.40 | $0.01 |
| 50 Day MA | $10.46 | $0.03 | $10.28 | $0.02 |
| 100 Day MA | $10.50 | $0.00 | $10.32 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week High | $10.82 | $0.00 | $10.65 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $10.32 | -$0.04 | $10.15 | $0.04 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 67% good-to-excellent and 5% poor-to-very poor; soybeans planted at 84% compared to 76% last week, 77% last year, and a 5-year average of 80%; and soybeans emerged at 63% compared to 50% last week, 53% last year, and a 5-year average of 57%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 64% good-to-excellent compared to 10% poor-to-very poor, soybeans planted were estimated at 65% compared to 59% last week, 67% last year, and a 5-year average of 65%; and soybeans emerged at 53% compared to 44% last week, 53% last year, and a 5-year average of 48%. Oct/Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $9.77 to $10.52 for the week. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.37, up 11 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.40 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 44 cents and set a $9.96 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.31 at the end of the week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for June 5 were 63.61 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 65.61 cents/lb (31-3-35). Upland cotton adjusted world price (AWP) increased 0.32 cents to 53.84 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 109,800 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 39,000 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 15% compared to last week at 316,100 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 111% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 112%. July 2025 cotton futures closed at 65.62 cents, up 0.56 cents since last Friday. For the week, July 2025 cotton futures traded between 64.71 and 66.7 cents. Jul/Dec and Jul/Mar cotton futures spreads were 2.59 cents and 4.07 cents.
| Cotton | Jul 25 | Change | Dec 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 65.62 | 0.56 | 68.21 | 0.46 |
| Support | 64.24 | 0.37 | 67.13 | 0.20 |
| Resistance | 66.30 | 0.01 | 68.83 | -0.14 |
| 20 Day MA | 65.69 | -0.52 | 68.31 | -0.30 |
| 50 Day MA | 66.63 | -0.14 | 68.61 | -0.08 |
| 100 Day MA | 67.42 | -0.23 | 68.81 | -0.06 |
| 4-Week High | 69.10 | 0.00 | 70.55 | 0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | 64.51 | 0.00 | 67.43 | 0.11 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 49% good-to-excellent and 22% poor-to-very poor; cotton planted at 66% compared to 52% last week, 68% last year, and a 5-year average of 69%; and cotton squaring at 8% compared to 3% last week, 8% last year, and a 5-year average of 7%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 51% good-to-excellent and 25% poor-to-very poor; cotton planted at 81% compared to 67% last week, 81% last year, and a 5-year average of 84%; and cotton squaring at 12% compared to 1% last week, 6% last year, and a 5-year average of 5%. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 68.21 cents, up 0.46 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 69 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 3.86 cents establishing a 65.14 cent futures floor. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 69.69 cents, up 0.47 cents since last Friday.
Wheat
Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales cancelations of 1.8 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and net sales of 16.3 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 8% compared to last week at 19.8 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 96% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 90%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.96 to $5.49.
| Wheat | Jul 25 | Change | Sep 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $5.54 | $0.20 | $5.68 | $0.20 |
| Support | $5.34 | $0.07 | $5.48 | $0.07 |
| Resistance | $5.65 | $0.24 | $5.80 | $0.24 |
| 20 Day MA | $5.34 | $0.02 | $5.49 | $0.02 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.41 | -$0.02 | $5.56 | -$0.02 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.62 | -$0.01 | $5.77 | -$0.01 |
| 4-Week High | $5.56 | $0.00 | $5.70 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $5.06 | $0.00 | $5.21 | $0.00 |
| Technical Trend | Up | + | Up | + |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat condition at 52% good-to-excellent and 18% poor-to-very poor; winter wheat headed at 83% compared to 75% last week, 82% last year, and a 5-year average of 79%; winter wheat harvested at 3% compared to 5% last year and a 5-year average of 3%; spring wheat condition at 50% good-to-excellent and 13% poor-to-very poor; spring wheat planted was estimated at 95% compared to 87% last week, 93% last year, and a 5-year average of 90%; and spring wheat emerged at 73% compared to 60% last week, 76% last year, and a 5-year average of 69%. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.54, up 20 cents since last Friday. July 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.31 and $5.55 this week. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.55 July 2025 Put Option costing 13 cents establishing a $5.42 futures floor. Jul/Sep and Jul/Dec future spreads were 14 and 35 cents. The July wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.25. September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.68, up 20 cents since last Friday. December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.89, up 18 cents since last Friday.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu.