Crop Comments

by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist

June 26, 2026

Overview

Overview

Corn, Cotton, and Wheat down for the week; Soybeans up for the week

This week’s crop comments highlight improving margins from easing fuel costs, regular gasoline averaging $3.42 and diesel $4.57, down sharply from $4.13 and $5.14 just one month ago, while also underscoring persistent year-over-year cost pressure. Grain markets show mixed signals, with Tennessee corn basis strengthening and cash prices ranging from $3.95 to $4.43, even as September futures slipped to $4.22 and export sales declined 36% week-over-week. Soybeans saw firmer futures, with November contracts up to $11.56, despite weaker basis and sharply lower exports, down 61% from the previous week. Crop conditions continue to improve across the state, with Tennessee corn rated 73% good-to-excellent and soybeans jumping to 74%, both outperforming national averages. Cotton prices softened, with December futures falling to 76.38 cents, while wheat markets remain steady with cash prices between $5.18 and $6 alongside an accelerated harvest pace. Overall, producers will find a mix of improving crop conditions, easing input costs, and continued market volatility shaping near-term marketing and management decisions. Hope everyone has a great weekend!

Fuel

The table shows a clear downward trend in Tennessee fuel prices over the past month, with current averages at $3.42 for regular gasoline and $4.57 for diesel compared to $4.13 and $5.14, respectively, just one month ago. Prices have also slightly declined from the previous week, though they remain notably higher than year-ago levels, when diesel averaged only $3.45. Lower fuel prices in the short term can reduce operating expenses and improve profit margins, but the year-over-year increase highlights ongoing cost pressures that producers must factor into budgeting and marketing decisions.

Fuel	Regular	Mid-Grade	Premium	Diesel
Current Avg.	$3.42	$3.90	$4.30	$4.57
Yesterday Avg.	$3.44	$3.92	$4.32	$4.60
Week Ago Avg.	$3.56	$4.05	$4.45	$4.73
Month Ago Avg.	$4.13	$4.57	$4.97	$5.14
Year Ago Avg.	$2.82	$3.28	$3.67	$3.45

Indicator	Previous	Current	Change
USD Index	100.79	101.32	0.53
Crude Oil	75.59	69.52	-6.07
DJIA	51565	51876	311

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 15 cents under to 11 cents over, with an average of even with the July futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending June 19th was 1.09 million barrels, down 12,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 24.585 million barrels, up 111,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $3.95 to $4.43 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.22, which is down 3 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 corn futures traded between $4.12 and $4.27.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 68% good-to-excellent (unchanged from last week) and 6% poor-to-very poor (unchanged from last week); corn emerged to be 97% compared to 94% last week, 97% last year, and a 5-year average of 97%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 73% good-to-excellent (up 5% from last week) and 6% poor-to-very poor (down 1% from last week); corn emerged to be 99% compared to 99% last week, 95% last year, and a 5-year average of 98%. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4 to $4.43 at elevators and barge points. For the week of June 12-18, 2026, net sales of 743,100 MT for 2025/2026 were down 36% from the previous week and 27% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 35,900 MT for 2026/2027 were primarily for Mexico (295,500 MT), Japan (250,000 MT), South Korea (74,000 MT), Panama (48,500 MT), and Honduras (32,500 MT). Exports of 1,500,100 MT were down 17% from the previous week and 15% from the prior 4-week average. December corn futures closed at $4.41, down 3 cents from last week.

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis weakened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 40 under to 3 over the July futures contract, with an average basis of 16 under at the end of the week. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $10.69 to $11.53. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.41, up 13 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $11.18 and $11.44.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 66% good-to-excellent (unchanged from last week) and 6% poor-to-very poor (unchanged from last week); soybean emerged to be 93% compared to 88% last week, 89% last year, and a 5-year average of 90%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 74% good-to-excellent (up 16% from last week) compared to 4% poor-to-very poor (down 4% from last week); emerged to be 90% compared to 86% last week, 73% last year, and a 5-year average of 77%. For the week of June 12-18, 2026, there were net sales of 455,400 MT for 2025/2026 were up 7% from the previous week and 50% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 902,200 MT for 2026/2027 were reported for unknown destinations (529,000 MT), China (200,000 MT), Mexico (106,200 MT), Egypt (60,000 MT), and Indonesia (7,000 MT). Exports of 217,000 MT (a marketing-year low) were down 61% from the previous week and 59% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (70,800 MT), China (69,500 MT), Colombia (29,800 MT), Indonesia (17,800 MT), and Taiwan (10,500 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.56, up 14 cents compared to last week.

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for June 26th were noticeably down compared to last week. Prices were 71.17 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 75.92 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both down 4.07 cents compared to last week’s prices.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 53% good-to-excellent (up 3% from last week) and 13% poor-to-very poor (up 2% from last week); cotton squaring to be 27% compared to 19% last week, 25% last year, and a 5-year average of 25%; cotton planted to be 92% compared to 86% last week, 91% last year, and a 5-year average of 94%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 62% good-to-excellent and 10% poor-to-very poor; cotton squaring to be 34% compared to 21% last week, 18% last year, and a 5-year average of 27%; cotton planted to be 99% compared to 99% last week, 90% last year, and a 5-year average of 97%. For the week June 12-18, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland 83,900 RB for 2025/2026 were down 53% from the previous week and 54% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 67,100 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for China (13,500 RB), Guatemala (12,800 RB), Vietnam (10,600 RB), El Salvador (7,000 RB), and Indonesia (6,900 RB). Exports of 300,200 RB were up 20 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (102,800 RB), Pakistan (48,600 RB), Bangladesh (25,900 RB), Turkey (23,600 RB), and India (15,800 RB). For the week, December 2026 cotton futures closed at 76.38 cents, down 3.29 cents compared to last week. March 2027 cotton futures closed at 77.74 cents, down 3.31 cents compared to last week.

Wheat

Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.18 to $6.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated spring wheat headed to be 16% compared to 6% last week, 15% last year, and a 5-year average of 16%. The report estimated winter wheat harvested to be 40% compared to 25% last week, 18% last year, and a 5-year average of 24%. For the week of June 12-18, 2026, net sales of 504,500 metric tons (MT) for 2026/2027 primarily for Mexico (204,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (118,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Bangladesh (55,000 MT), Chile (55,000 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and South Korea (23,700 MT, including decreases of 3,500 MT), were offset by reductions for Jamaica (7,500 MT) and Italy (700 MT). Exports of 481,500 MT were primarily to Japan (128,800 MT), the Philippines(115,900 MT), South Korea (78,300 MT), Nigeria (42,200 MT), and Venezuela (31,800 MT).

Additional Information

Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news

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