by Aaron Smith, Crops Marketing Specialist
May 16, 2025
Overview
Corn and cotton were down; wheat was down; soybeans were mixed for the week.
Opportunities to profitably price 2025 corn production have been few and far between so far this calendar year. If you have 2025 corn priced above $4.70 in the futures market, you have production priced in the 90th percentile (or top 10%) of daily December corn futures closing prices since January 1. The average daily futures closing price for the December corn contract this year has been $4.55. Currently, the difference in futures market pricing between being average and in the top 10% is $0.15.
The situation is even more bleak for soybeans and cotton. For November soybeans, the 90th percentile is $10.58 and the average closing price from January 1 to May 16 is $10.31, a $0.27 difference. For December cotton, the 90th percentile is 69.91 cents, and the average is 68.95 cents, a 0.96 cent difference.
The major difference between pricing opportunities for corn, soybeans, and cotton are futures market prices compared to estimated breakeven prices. For most operations in Tennessee breakeven prices for corn, soybeans, and cotton will be $4.00-$5.00, $11.00-$12.00, and $0.75-$0.85 (UT Crop Budgets estimate breakeven prices for average production at $4.67, $11.73, and $0.81). Based on futures market price offerings from January 1 to May 16, only corn has provided opportunities for futures market pricing at or above breakeven prices. This likely leaves the majority of projected 2025 production unpriced, with revenue protection crop insurance as the only price risk protection so far this production season.
The lack of opportunities to manage price risk so far this season will tighten the marketing window substantially, particularly for those farms that do not have storage and will need to sell between now and the end of harvest. Those farms with storage will have time to further evaluate price direction and extend the marketing window, however there is no guarantee that markets will provide an incentive to store. The key take away is if prices rally producers will need to act quickly because many farms will be behind in pricing the 2025 crop due to a lack of profitable opportunities in the futures market.
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 100.17 | 100.92 | 0.75 |
| Crude Oil | 61.06 | 62.43 | 1.37 |
| DJIA | 41,249 | 42,623 | 1,373 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, and West-Central and strengthened at Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 25 under to 30 over, with an average of 10 over the July futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending May 9 was 0.993 million barrels per day, down 27,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 25.445 million barrels, up 0.254 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for May 2-8 were net sales of 66.0 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 20.0 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 22% compared to last week at 55.6 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 94% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 95%. Cash prices ranged from $4.17 to $4.80 at elevators and barge points. July 2025 corn futures closed at $4.43, down 6 cents since last Friday. For the week, July 2025 corn futures traded between $4.36 and $4.58. September 2025 corn futures closed at $4.29, down 8 cents since last Friday. Jul/Sep and Jul/Dec future spreads were -22 and -8 cents.
| Corn | Jul 25 | Change | Dec 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.43 | -$0.06 | $4.35 | -$0.07 |
| Support | $4.37 | -$0.05 | $4.30 | -$0.07 |
| Resistance | $4.54 | -$0.04 | $4.44 | -$0.02 |
| 20 Day MA | $4.63 | -$0.12 | $4.46 | -$0.06 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.69 | -$0.02 | $4.50 | -$0.01 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.79 | $0.00 | $4.54 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week High | $4.95 | -$0.02 | $4.68 | -$0.01 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.36 | -$0.02 | $4.34 | -$0.01 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn planted at 62% compared to 40% last week, 47% last year, and a 5-year average of 56%; and corn emerged at 28% compared to 11% last week, 21% last year, and a 5-year average of 21%. In Tennessee, corn planted was estimated at 76% compared to 61% last week, 72% last year, and a 5-year average of 75%; and corn emerged at 51% compared to 30% last week, 43% last year, and a 5-year average of 47%. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.35, down 7 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.40 December 2025 Put Option costing 31 cents establishing a $4.09 futures floor. This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $4.13 to $4.40 at elevators and barge points.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee the average soybean basis strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 40 under to 9 over the July futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 10 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 10.4 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 18.0 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 66% compared to last week at 15.8 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 95% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 98%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $10.11 to $10.86. July 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.50, down 1 cent since last Friday. For the week, July 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.46 and $10.82. The July soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.37 at the end of the week. August 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.46, down 1 cent since last Friday. Jul/Aug and Jul/Nov future spreads were -4 and -15 cents.
| Soybeans | Jul 25 | Change | Nov 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $10.50 | -$0.01 | $10.35 | $0.05 |
| Support | $10.39 | $0.07 | $10.24 | $0.10 |
| Resistance | $10.64 | -$0.03 | $10.48 | $0.06 |
| 20 Day MA | $10.53 | $0.04 | $10.32 | $0.05 |
| 50 Day MA | $10.38 | $0.03 | $10.21 | $0.03 |
| 100 Day MA | $10.46 | $0.03 | $10.29 | $0.03 |
| 4-Week High | $10.82 | $0.15 | $10.65 | $0.22 |
| 4-Week Low | $10.36 | $0.16 | $10.11 | $0.17 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybeans planted at 48% compared to 30% last week, 34% last year, and a 5-year average of 37%; and soybeans emerged at 17% compared to 7% last week, 15% last year, and a 5-year average of 11%. In Tennessee, soybeans planted were estimated at 44% compared to 35% last week, 45% last year, and a 5-year average of 33%; and soybeans emerged at 23% compared to 9% last week, 23 % last year and a 5-year average of 13%. Oct/Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $9.90 to $10.78 for the week. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.35, up 5 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.40 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 53 cents and set a $9.87 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.38 at the end of the week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for May 15 were 63.68 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 65.68 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) decreased 0.91 cents to 53.9 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 122,200 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 34,200 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 17% compared to last week at 329,200 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 108% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 108%. July 2025 cotton futures closed at 64.89 cents, down 1.72 cents since last Friday. For the week, July 2025 cotton futures traded between 69.06 and 67.67 cents. Jul/Dec and Jul/Mar cotton futures spreads were 2.78 cents and 4.17 cents.
| Cotton | Jul 25 | Change | Dec 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 64.89 | -1.72 | 67.67 | -1.00 |
| Support | 64.04 | -1.88 | 66.98 | -1.00 |
| Resistance | 66.32 | -1.24 | 68.80 | -0.76 |
| 20 Day MA | 67.04 | -0.16 | 68.87 | 0.12 |
| 50 Day MA | 67.16 | -0.01 | 68.87 | 0.09 |
| 100 Day MA | 68.12 | -0.24 | 69.01 | -0.06 |
| 4-Week High | 69.75 | 0.00 | 70.75 | 0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | 64.75 | -0.30 | 67.32 | 0.66 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton planted at 28% compared to 21% last week, 32% last year, and a 5-year average of 31%. In Tennessee, cotton planted was estimated at 29% compared to 13% last week, 26% last year, and a 5-year average of 21%. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 67.67 cents, down 1 cent since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 68 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 3.68 cents establishing a 64.32 cent futures floor. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 69.06 cents, down 0.87 cents since last Friday.
Wheat
Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 2.2 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 27.4 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 25% compared to last week at 13.6 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 97% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 104%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.35 to $4.60.
| Wheat | Jul 25 | Change | Sep 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $5.25 | $0.04 | $5.39 | $0.03 |
| Support | $5.17 | $0.05 | $5.17 | -$0.10 |
| Resistance | $5.37 | -$0.01 | $5.37 | -$0.15 |
| 20 Day MA | $5.33 | -$0.10 | $5.33 | -$0.24 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.50 | -$0.04 | $5.50 | -$0.20 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.65 | -$0.02 | $5.65 | -$0.16 |
| 4-Week High | $5.69 | -$0.02 | $5.69 | -$0.15 |
| 4-Week Low | $5.06 | -$0.14 | $5.06 | -$0.29 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat condition at 54% good-to-excellent and 18% poor-to-very poor; winter wheat headed at 53% compared to 39% last week, 55% last year, and a 5-year average of 45%; spring wheat planted was estimated at 66% compared to 44% last week, 59% last year, and a 5-year average of 49%; and spring wheat emerged at 27% compared to 13% last week, 23% last year, and a 5-year average of 19%. In Tennessee, winter wheat condition was estimated at 67% good-to-excellent and 9% poor-to-very poor; winter wheat jointing at 95% compared to 92% last week; and winter wheat headed at 88% compared to 73% last week, 88% last year, and a 5-year average of 88%. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.25, up 4 cents since last Friday. July 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.06 and $5.33 this week. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.20 July 2025 Put Option costing 16 cents establishing a $5.09 futures floor. Jul/Sep and Jul/Dec future spreads were 14 and 35 cents. The July wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.19. July cash contracts at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.75 to $5.25. September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.39, up 3 cents since last Friday. December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.60, up 2 cents since last Friday.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu.