by Aaron Smith, Crops Marketing Specialist
November 15, 2024
Overview
Corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat were down for the week.
Since August 26, December corn futures prices have improved from the contract low of $3.85 to a recent high of $4.35, up 50 cents. During the same time, the average basis at Memphis improved from 27 under to 22 over, a 49-cent improvement. Combined cash prices at Memphis are up 99 cents since August 26. There are two major points that should be articulated when looking at futures prices and basis in Tennessee.
First, avoiding seasonal lows in September and October are essential to obtaining higher cash corn prices. Over the past ten years in Tennessee, the average cash price improvement from September to December is $0.44 per bushel. From September to March, the average cash price improvement is $0.77 per bushel. Price gains will vary by production region in the state. Also, this does not consider the cost of storage or interest to carry the corn held in storage, however these are substantial price differences over a ten-year interval. Storage will not pay every year, but the past ten years have provided strong evidence that investment in storage provides a solid return to Tennessee corn farmers.
The second point is for farmers to consider disaggregating their cash prices into basis and futures. Basis and futures can move in opposite directions, so rather than signing a cash forward contract for March delivery it may be beneficial to look at a hedge-to-arrive (HTA) contract and a basis contract at different points in time for March delivery. If the basis offerings are beneficial, lock in basis and leave the futures unfixed for a future date or if futures prices are beneficial lock in the futures price with an HTA and leave the basis unfixed. Separating basis and futures into independent pricing decisions provides the marketer with the ability to be more selective in how they secure a final cash price.
This was a disastrous week for cotton prices as the March contract dropped 434 points to close the week at 68.91 cents. Three triple digit daily declines pushed the March contract towards the contract low of 67.90 cents on August 16. After a move to 76 cents on October 7, the March contract appeared poised to take run into the upper 70s and potentially even breach 80 cents. That hope has been all but crushed with a retreat towards the contract low. It seems very likely that the March contract will trade in the 68 to 74 cent range for the next few months, with an outside chance of a further drop to 66 cents.
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 104.82 | 106.70 | 1.88 |
| Crude Oil | 70.46 | 67.01 | -3.45 |
| DJIA | 43,989 | 43,450 | -539 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) weakened or remained unchanged at Northwest, West, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 25 under to 35 over, with an average of 6 over the December futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending November 8 was 1.113 million barrels per day, up 8,000 from the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 22.039 million barrels, up 0.019 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for November 1-7 were net sales of 51.8 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 24% compared to last week at 27.5 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 51% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 44%. The Crop Progress report estimated corn harvested at 95% compared to 91% last week, 86% last year, and a 5-year average of 84%. In Tennessee, corn harvested was estimated at 99% compared to 98% last week, 97% last year, and a 5-year average of 98%. Cash prices ranged from $3.94 to $4.68 at elevators and barge points. December 2024 corn futures closed at $4.24, down 7 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2024 corn futures traded between $4.17 and $4.33.
| Corn | Dec 24 | Change | Mar 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.24 | -$0.07 | $4.35 | -$0.09 |
| Support | $4.12 | -$0.10 | $4.24 | -$0.12 |
| Resistance | $4.31 | -$0.07 | $4.42 | -$0.09 |
| 20 Day MA | $4.19 | $0.05 | $4.32 | $0.04 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.16 | $0.02 | $4.31 | $0.01 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.11 | -$0.01 | $4.27 | -$0.01 |
| 4-Week High | $4.34 | $0.00 | $4.47 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $3.99 | $0.00 | $4.14 | $0.00 |
| Technical Trend | Down | – | Down | – |
Dec/Mar and Dec/Dec future spreads were 11 and 16 cents. March 2025 corn futures closed at $4.35, down 9 cents since last Friday. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.40, down 9 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.50 December 2025 Put Option costing 42 cents establishing a $4.08 futures floor.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee the average soybean basis strengthened or remained unchanged at Northwest, West, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Basis ranged from 33 under to 32 over the January futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 5 over. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 57.2 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 3% compared to last week at 86.0 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 60% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 65%. The Crop Progress report estimated soybeans harvested at 96% compared to 94% last week, 94% last year, and a 5-year average of 91%. In Tennessee, soybeans harvested were estimated at 89% compared to 85% last week, 85% last year, and a 5-year average of 79%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.55 to $10.43. January 2025 soybean futures closed at $9.98, down 32 cents since last Friday. For the week, January 2025 soybean futures traded between $9.86 and $10.19. Jan/Dec soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.35 at the end of the week.
| Soybeans | Jan 25 | Change | Nov 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $9.98 | -$0.32 | $10.20 | -$0.32 |
| Support | $9.79 | -$0.25 | $10.07 | -$0.23 |
| Resistance | $10.15 | -$0.42 | $10.31 | -$0.40 |
| 20 Day MA | $10.01 | $0.02 | $10.32 | -$0.01 |
| 50 Day MA | $10.22 | -$0.03 | $10.52 | -$0.03 |
| 100 Day MA | $10.34 | -$0.07 | $10.58 | -$0.04 |
| 4-Week High | $10.44 | -$0.01 | $10.60 | -$0.16 |
| 4-Week Low | $9.77 | $0.00 | $10.12 | -$0.03 |
| Technical Trend | Down | – | Down | – |
Jan/Mar and Jan/Nov future spreads were 10 and 22 cents. March 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.08, down 35 cents since last Friday. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.20, down 32 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.40 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 80 cents and set a $9.60 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.29 at the end of the week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for November 14 were 64.32 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 66.32 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) increased 0.24 cents to 58.2 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 153,300 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 1,000 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 23% compared to last week at 112,000 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 57% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 67%. The Crop Progress report estimated cotton harvested at 71% compared to 63% last week, 64% last year, and a 5-year average of 63%. In Tennessee, cotton harvested was estimated at 85% compared to 78% last week, 83% last year, and a 5-year average of 73%. December 2024 cotton futures closed at 66.8 cents, down 4.18 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2024 cotton futures traded between 66.65 and 71.24 cents.
| Cotton | Dec 24 | Change | Mar 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 66.80 | -4.18 | 68.91 | -4.34 |
| Support | 65.55 | -3.88 | 67.64 | -4.05 |
| Resistance | 68.99 | -3.14 | 71.28 | -3.25 |
| 20 Day MA | 70.18 | -0.61 | 72.40 | -0.57 |
| 50 Day MA | 71.25 | -0.10 | 73.24 | -0.05 |
| 100 Day MA | 70.53 | -0.27 | 72.36 | -0.22 |
| 4-Week High | 72.75 | -0.75 | 74.70 | -0.79 |
| 4-Week Low | 66.65 | -2.30 | 68.83 | -2.58 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
Dec/Mar and Dec/Dec cotton futures spreads were 2.11 cents and 3.76 cents. March 2025 cotton futures closed at 68.91 cents, down 4.34 cents since last Friday. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 70.56 cents, down 2.67 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 71 cent December 2024 Put Option costing 4.25 cents establishing a 66.75 cent futures floor.
Wheat
Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 14.0 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 27% compared to last week at 11.1 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 64% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 67%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.95 to $5.23. December 2024 wheat futures closed at $5.36, down 36 cents since last Friday. The December wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.27. December 2024 wheat futures traded between $5.28 and $5.72 this week. March 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.54, down 33 cents since last Friday.
| Wheat | Dec 24 | Change | Jul 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $5.36 | -$0.36 | $5.70 | -$0.35 |
| Support | $5.25 | -$0.35 | $5.60 | -$0.33 |
| Resistance | $5.46 | -$0.38 | $5.78 | -$0.36 |
| 20 Day MA | $5.65 | -$0.09 | $6.00 | -$0.10 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.77 | -$0.02 | $6.14 | -$0.02 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.71 | -$0.02 | $6.07 | -$0.03 |
| 4-Week High | $5.95 | -$0.16 | $6.31 | -$0.18 |
| 4-Week Low | $5.28 | -$0.29 | $5.63 | -$0.33 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
Dec/Mar and Dec/Jul future spreads were 18 and 34 cents. The Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat condition at 44% good-to-excellent and 18% poor-to-very poor, winter wheat planted at 91% compared to 87% last week, 92% last year, and a 5-year average of 93%; and winter wheat emerged at 76% compared to 66% last week, 79% last year, and a 5-year average of 79%. In Tennessee winter wheat condition was estimated at 67% good-to-excellent and 10% poor-to-very poor, winter wheat planted at 80% compared to 69% last week, 71% last year, and a 5-year average of 75%; and winter wheat emerged at 59% compared to 41% last week, 48% last year, and a 5-year average of 55%. July cash contracts at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.27 to $5.63. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.70, down 35 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.70 July 2025 Put Option costing 51 cents establishing a $5.19 futures floor.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu.