by Aaron Smith, Crops Marketing Specialist
August 8, 2025
Overview
Corn and soybeans were down; cotton was up; and wheat was mixed for the week.
The differences between cattle markets and crop markets could not be starker. It seems every week cattle futures obtain new highs while crop markets are staring directly at a second consecutive harvest with prices well below the majority of row crop producer’s breakeven price points. Agricultural markets are cyclical, however there could not be a greater contrast across these two sectors.
Why does this year feel like last year for corn, soybean, and cotton futures prices? Mostly because prices are nearly the same at the start of this August as August 2024. In 2025, for the first week in August, December corn futures prices averaged $4.05, November soybean futures prices $9.90, and December cotton futures prices 66.66 cents. In 2024, corn averaged $4.03, soybeans $10.24, and cotton 67.66 cents. All prices are within +/-3.5% of last year’s values. The major pricing difference between the 2024 and the 2025 crop year is pricing opportunities. In 2024 there were early season opportunities to price corn, soybean, and cotton production near $5, $12, and 85 cents. In 2025, the harvest contracts maxed out at $4.80, $10.74, and 70.8 cents. This has likely resulted in less production being priced from the start of year to present and the production that has been priced is at a lower average price in 2025 than 2024 at the start of this harvest.
Many producers will store this year’s crop and wait for potentially higher prices at the end of 2025 or early 2026, which is a reasonable strategy given where nearby futures prices are ($3.82 as of August 9). However, pricing some (incremental pricing is advisable) production in storage on deferred futures contracts (for example, May at $4.33 on August 9) may be worth considering. Combining a deferred futures price with the potential for seasonal basis improvements could yield cash prices near $4.50. Storage costs, particularly interest, will need to be determined to evaluate the potential financial gains from this pricing and storage strategy. Interest costs for corn held in storage are 3-4 cents per bushel per month – 18-24 cents in interest only expenses to store corn for six months – at in an 8-8.5% interest rate. Incremental pricing diversifies price risk avoiding an all or nothing approach. With habitually low prices this production year, producers will need to examine all harvest and post-harvest price risk management strategies available and determine how to proceed.
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 98.53 | 98.01 | -0.52 |
| Crude Oil | 67.18 | 63.88 | -3.3 |
| DJIA | 43,585 | 44,176 | 591 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points and weakened at North-Central elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from even to 29 over, with an average of 12 over the September futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending August 1 was 1.081 million barrels per day, down 15,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 23.756 million barrels, down 0.960 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for July 25-31 were net sales of 6.7 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 124.5 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 17% compared to last week at 48.4 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 101% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 102%. Cash prices ranged from $3.81 to $4.16 at elevators and barge points. September 2025 corn futures closed at $3.82, down 7 cents since last Friday. For the week, September 2025 corn futures traded between $3.75 and $3.92. Sep/Dec and Sep/Mar future spreads were 23 and 41 cents.
| Corn | Sep 25 | Change | Dec 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $3.82 | -$0.07 | $4.05 | -$0.05 |
| Support | $3.72 | -$0.12 | $3.96 | -$0.10 |
| Resistance | $3.94 | -$0.05 | $4.16 | -$0.02 |
| 20 Day MA | $3.94 | -$0.04 | $4.14 | -$0.03 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.08 | -$0.05 | $4.25 | -$0.05 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.24 | -$0.03 | $4.37 | -$0.02 |
| 4-Week High | $4.11 | -$0.15 | $4.30 | -$0.12 |
| 4-Week Low | $3.75 | -$0.12 | $3.96 | -$0.11 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 73% good-to-excellent and 7% poor-to-very poor; corn silking at 88% compared to 76% last week, 86% last year, and a 5-year average of 89%; corn dough at 42% compared to 26% last week, 44% last year, and a 5-year average of 40%; and corn dented at 6% compared to 6% last year and a 5-year average of 6%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 71% good-to-excellent and 7% poor-to-very poor; corn silking at 95% compared to 89% last week, 95% last year, and a 5-year average of 96%; corn dough at 76% compared to 59% last week, 70% last year, and a 5-year average of 70%; and corn dented at 30% compared to 13% last week, 26% last year, and a 5-year average of 19%. This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $3.57 to $3.93 at elevators and barge points. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.05, down 5 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.10 December 2025 Put Option costing 17 cents establishing a $3.93 futures floor. March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.23, down 5 cents since last Friday.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 46 under to 15 over the September futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 15 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 17.2 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 20.0 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 38% compared to last week at 25.3 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 101% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 103%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.25 to $9.90. September 2025 soybean futures closed at $9.67, down 2 cents since last Friday. For the week, September 2025 soybean futures traded between $9.62 and $9.83. The September soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.63 at the end of the week. Sep/Nov and Sep/Jan future spreads were 20 and 39 cents.
| Soybeans | Sep 25 | Change | Nov 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $9.67 | -$0.02 | $9.87 | -$0.02 |
| Support | $9.51 | -$0.06 | $9.71 | -$0.05 |
| Resistance | $9.87 | $0.05 | $10.07 | $0.09 |
| 20 Day MA | $9.90 | -$0.08 | $10.07 | -$0.06 |
| 50 Day MA | $10.11 | -$0.07 | $10.23 | -$0.05 |
| 100 Day MA | $10.16 | -$0.02 | $10.24 | -$0.01 |
| 4-Week High | $10.27 | -$0.23 | $10.43 | -$0.15 |
| 4-Week Low | $9.62 | -$0.04 | $9.81 | -$0.05 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 69% good-to-excellent and 7% poor-to-very poor; soybeans blooming at 85% compared to 76% last week, 85% last year, and a 5-year average of 86%; and soybeans setting pods at 58% compared to 41% last week, 57% last year, and a 5-year average of 58%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 67% good-to-excellent compared to 8% poor-to-very poor; soybeans blooming at 77% compared to 69% last week, 85% last year, and a 5-year average of 86%; and soybeans setting pods at 57% compared to 44% last week, 65% last year, and a 5-year average of 55%. Oct/Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $9.28 to $9.73 for the week. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $9.87, down 2 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $9.90 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 27 cents and set a $9.63 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.44 at the end of the week. January 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.06, down 1 cent since last Friday.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for August 8 were 64.07 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 68.82 cents/lb (31-3-35). Upland cotton adjusted world price (AWP) decreased 0.13 cents to 54.39 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales reduction of 17,200 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and net sales of 109,300 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 21% compared to last week at 182,300 bales. For the 2024/25 marketing year accumulated exports were 11.2 million bales, up 1 percent from the prior year’s total of 11.1 million bales. Upland cotton export sales were 107% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 116%.
| Cotton | Dec 25 | Change | Mar 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 66.60 | 0.24 | 68.07 | 0.38 |
| Support | 65.24 | 0.31 | 66.77 | 0.47 |
| Resistance | 67.76 | -0.38 | 69.17 | -0.25 |
| 20 Day MA | 67.75 | -0.23 | 69.11 | -0.22 |
| 50 Day MA | 67.86 | -0.16 | 69.20 | -0.17 |
| 100 Day MA | 68.31 | -0.14 | 69.58 | -0.12 |
| 4-Week High | 69.15 | 0.00 | 70.38 | 0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | 65.88 | -0.46 | 67.37 | -0.30 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 55% good-to-excellent and 15% poor-to-very poor; cotton squaring at 87% compared to 80% last week, 90% last year, and a 5-year average of 89%; cotton setting bolls at 55% compared to 44% last week, 59% last year, and a 5-year average of 58%; and cotton setting bolls at 5% compared to 7% last year and a 5-year average of 6%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 61% good-to-excellent and 9% poor-to-very poor; cotton squaring at 81% compared to 72% last week, 97% last year, and a 5-year average of 93%; cotton setting bolls at 55% compared to 44% last week, 59% last year, and a 5-year average of 58%; and cotton bolls opening at 5% compared to 7% last year and a 5-year average of 6%. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 66.6 cents, up 0.24 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 cotton futures traded between 65.88 and 67.72 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.47 cents and 2.67 cents. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 67 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 2.29 cents establishing a 64.71 cent futures floor. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 68.07 cents, up 0.38 cents since last Friday. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 69.27 cents, up 0.41 cents since last Friday.
Wheat
Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 27.1 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 125% compared to last week at 24.5 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 45% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2025/26 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 41%. Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat harvested at 86% compared to 80% last week, 87% last year, and a 5-year average of 87%; spring wheat condition at 48% good-to-excellent and 17% poor-to-very poor; spring wheat headed at 95% compared to 92% last week, 97% last year, and a 5-year average of 98%; and spring wheat harvested at 5% compared to 1% last week, 5% last year, and a 5-year average of 9%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.50 to $4.79.
| Wheat | Sep 25 | Change | Jul 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $5.14 | -$0.02 | $5.76 | $0.01 |
| Support | $5.03 | $0.00 | $5.66 | $0.02 |
| Resistance | $5.27 | -$0.05 | $5.89 | $0.01 |
| 20 Day MA | $5.30 | -$0.09 | $5.88 | -$0.08 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.44 | -$0.04 | $6.03 | -$0.04 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.52 | -$0.04 | $6.10 | -$0.03 |
| 4-Week High | $5.57 | -$0.11 | $6.14 | -$0.09 |
| 4-Week Low | $5.04 | -$0.12 | $5.65 | -$0.09 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.14, down 2 cents since last Friday. September 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.04 and $5.23 this week. Sep/Dec and Sep/Jul future spreads were 21 and 62 cents. The September wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.35. December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.35, down 2 cents since last Friday. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.76, up 1 cent since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.80 July 2026 Put Option costing 48 cents establishing a $5.32 futures floor.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu.