Crop Comments

by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist

June 18, 2026

Overview

Overview

Wheat up for the week; Corn, Soybeans, and Cotton down for the week

In this week’s crop comments, producers can expect a mixed outlook shaped by ample grain supplies, shifting market signals, and still-elevated input costs. Globally, corn production is projected higher into 2026/27, pointing to continued pressure on prices, while U.S. crop conditions remain generally favorable with 68% of corn and 66% of soybeans rated good-to-excellent. Locally, Tennessee conditions are slightly weaker, with corn at 66% good-to-excellent and soybeans at 58%, highlighting emerging regional variability. Cash markets reflected softer tone, with corn prices ranging from $3.89 to $4.46 and soybean prices from $10.79 to $11.53, alongside weakening basis levels. At the same time, wheat supplies are tightening significantly, with U.S. production forecast near 1.54 billion bushels, one of the lowest levels in decades, though global competition continues to limit major price rallies. Fuel costs have eased from recent highs, with diesel averaging $4.76 per gallon, down from $5.17 last month but still well above last year’s $3.31. Overall, this week’s update emphasizes strong production potential, softer grain price pressure, and continued margin challenges, reinforcing the need for disciplined marketing and cost management strategies. Hope everyone has a great weekend!

Feed Outlook: June 2026

The USDA ERS Feed Outlook: June 2026 report highlights the supply outlook for feed grains, driven largely by increased global corn production. Global coarse grain production is projected higher for both the 2025/26 and 2026/27 marketing years, with corn accounting for the majority of the increase due to expanded acreage and improved yields in key exporting countries such as Brazil, Argentina, and India. This suggests continued ample feed grain availability, which can put downward pressure on corn prices.

On the domestic side, U.S. corn planting for the 2026/27 crop is nearly complete and slightly ahead of historical averages, with strong early-season crop progress reported across most major producing states. While early vegetative-stage conditions generally limit yield risks, future weather during reproductive stages will be critical in determining final production levels. Overall, the outlook points to solid production potential and relatively ample supply, which may contribute to tighter margins if prices weaken, reinforcing the importance of marketing strategies and cost control for producers.

Wheat Outlook: June 2026

The USDA ERS Wheat Outlook: June 2026 indicates a significantly tighter U.S. wheat supply situation heading into the 2026/27 marketing year, largely driven by drought-reduced production. U.S. all-wheat production is forecast at about 1.54 billion bushels, one of the lowest levels in decades, with winter wheat output down sharply year over year. For producers, this underscores the ongoing impact of weather risk and reduced wheat acreage on overall grain supply.

Despite tighter domestic supplies, U.S. wheat exports remain constrained and are forecast among the lowest levels in over 50 years, as higher U.S. prices limit competitiveness in global markets.  At the same time, global wheat production is comparatively stronger, with competing exporters maintaining ample supplies, which moderates price upside. For producers, this combination of smaller U.S. crops but competitive global markets suggests a mixed outlook: local supply tightness may support prices, but global competition could limit sustained rallies, making disciplined marketing strategies important.

Fuel

Fuel prices across Tennessee have softened modestly in recent days but higher than year-ago levels, maintaining the cost pressure for row crop producers. Current averages show regular gasoline at $3.59 per gallon, mid-grade at $4.08, premium at $4.47, and diesel at $4.76. These prices are down slightly from both yesterday and last week, with diesel declining from $4.78 yesterday and $4.89 a week ago, signaling a short-term easing trend. Compared to a month ago, however, fuel costs have dropped more substantially, with diesel down from $5.17 per gallon, which may offer some seasonal relief in operating expenses. Despite this recent decline, prices remain significantly above year-ago levels, particularly for diesel, which has increased from $3.31 per gallon. Overall, while the downward movement in fuel prices is a positive sign for producers as we continue managing through tight margins.

Fuel	Regular	Mid-Grade	Premium	Diesel
Current Avg.	$3.59	$4.08	$4.47	$4.76
Yesterday Avg.	$3.60	$4.09	$4.49	$4.78
Week Ago Avg.	$3.68	$4.15	$4.56	$4.89
Month Ago Avg.	$4.12	$4.58	$4.98	$5.17
Year Ago Avg.	$2.82	$3.28	$3.68	$3.31

Indicator	Previous	Current	Change
USD Index	99.73	100.79	1.06
Crude Oil	77.13	75.59	-1.54
DJIA	51221	51565	344

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) weakened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 25 cents under to 11 cents over, with an average of 3 cents under with the July futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending June 12th was 1.102 million barrels, down 6,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 24.474 million barrels, up 22,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $3.89 to $4.46 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.25, which is up 5 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 corn futures traded between $4.14 and $4.30.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 68% good-to-excellent (up 1% from last week) and 6% poor-to-very poor (unchanged from last week); corn emerged to be 94% compared to 86% last week, 93% last year, and a 5-year average of 93%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 66% good-to-excellent (down 3% from last week) and 7% poor-to-very poor (down 1% from last week); corn emerged to be 99% compared to 95% last week, 91% last year, and a 5-year average of 96%. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $3.94 to $4.49 at elevators and barge points. For the week of June 5-11, 2026, net sales of 1,157,100 MT for 2025/2026 were up 16% from the previous week, but down 8% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 519,000 MT for 2026/2027 primarily for Japan (211,000 MT), South Korea (201,000 MT), Mexico (142,700 MT), unknown destinations (43,500 MT), and Honduras (30,500 MT), were offset by reductions for Colombia (162,500 MT). Exports of 1,815,600 MT were down 5% from the previous week, but up 8% from the prior 4-week average. December corn futures closed at $4.44, up 4 cents from last week.

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis weakened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 25 under to 11 over the July futures contract, with an average basis of 3.5 under at the end of the week. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $10.79 to $11.53. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.28, up 11 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $11.07 and $11.44.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 66% good-to-excellent (up 1% from last week) and 6% poor-to-very poor (unchanged from last week); soybean emerged to be 88% compared to 79% last week, 83% last year, and a 5-year average of 82%; soybean planted to be 95% compared to 92% last week, 93% last year, and a 5-year average of 93%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 58% good-to-excellent (down 5% from last week) compared to 8% poor-to-very poor (unchanged from last week); emerged to be 86% compared to 83% last week, 65% last year, and a 5-year average of 69%; soybean planted to be 94% compared to 90% last week, 77% last year, and a 5-year average of 80%. For the week of June 5-11, 2026, there were net sales of 424,900 MT for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 49% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 304,100 MT for 2026/2027 primarily for unknown destinations (264,000 MT), Mexico (24,000 MT), Malaysia (10,000 MT), Indonesia (8,500 MT), and South Korea (600 MT), were offset by reductions for Thailand (3,000 MT) and Japan (500 MT). Exports of 552,400 MT were up 34% from the previous week and 6% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Egypt (218,300 MT), China (136,300 MT), Indonesia (73,900 MT), Mexico (65,000 MT), and Malaysia (12,400 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.42, up 10 cents compared to last week.

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for June 17th were noticeably down compared to last week. Prices were 75.17 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 79.92 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both up 7.07 cents compared to last week’s prices.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton squaring to be 19% compared to 13% last week, 18% last year, and a 5-year average of 17%; cotton planted to be 86% compared to 77% last week, 84% last year, and a 5-year average of 88%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton squaring to be 21% compared to 16% last week, 10% last year, and a 5-year average of 17%; cotton planted to be 99% compared to 97% last week, 87% last year, and a 5-year average of 95%. For the week June 5-11, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland totaling 177,100 RB for 2025/2026 were down 15% from the previous week, but up 5% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 188,400 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for Vietnam (65,600 RB), Pakistan (39,600 RB), Indonesia (22,500 RB), Malaysia (21,100 RB), and Nicaragua (15,000 RB). Exports of 251,000 RB were down 16% from the previous week and 15% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (66,300 RB), Pakistan (33,100 RB), Turkey (28,000 RB), Bangladesh (24,500 RB), and China (19,800 RB). For the week, December 2026 cotton futures closed at 79.67 cents, up 3.25 cents compared to last week. March 2027 cotton futures closed at 81.05 cents, up 3.41 cents compared to last week.

Wheat

Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.39 to $6.16.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated spring wheat emerged to be 95% compared to 87% last week, 88% last year, and a 5-year average of 89%. The report estimated winter wheat headed to be 95% compared to 92% last week, 92% last year, and a 5-year average of 91%. For the week of June 5-11, 2026 400,800 metric tons (MT) for 2026/2027, primarily for Japan (167,400 MT), Mexico (80,300 MT, including decreases of 1,000 MT), Thailand (56,500 MT), Nigeria (41,400 MT, including 38,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and the Philippines (34,400 MT, including, including decreases of 29,100), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (12,200 MT) and Taiwan (700 MT). Total net sales of 26,900 MT for 2027/2028 were for the Philippines. Exports of 314,300 MT were primarily to South Korea (68,600 MT), Mexico (66,400 MT), the Philippines (53,300 MT), Nigeria (41,000 MT), and Taiwan (38,900 MT).

Additional Information

Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news

If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at cmart113@utk.edu.