by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist
January 30, 2026
Overview
Corn and Soybeans up for the week; Cotton and Wheat down for the week
This week started with frozen weather from the weekend, and strong prices across the board. Prices continued to raise until yesterday and have since continued the downward trend through Friday. Some of the movement was due to various commodities being below expectations on exports. But, some of the movement was also caused by the dollar index rising and crude oil being down at the end of the day on Friday.
There was no USDA reports released this week. Next week, there will be crush data on Monday. Additionally, the USDA Cattle inventory will be released on Friday and depending on that report, there could be movement on the boards next week.
East Tennessee is expected to receive more winter weather this weekend, I hope everyone stays safe and warm.
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 97.73 | 96.93 | -0.80 |
| Crude Oil | 61.06 | 65.59 | 4.53 |
| DJIA | 49059 | 48873 | -186 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 20 cents under to 33 cents over, with an average of 10 cents over with the March futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending January 23rd was 1.114 million barrels, down 5,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 25.400 million barrels, down 339,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.07 to $4.62 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.28, which is down 2 cents compared to last week. For the week, March 2026 corn futures traded between $4.25 and $4.34.
| Corn | Mar 26 | Change | Sep 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.28 | -$0.02 | $4.41 | -$0.01 |
| Support | $4.25 | $0.04 | $4.38 | $0.02 |
| Resistance | $4.31 | $0.06 | $4.44 | $0.06 |
| 20 Day MA | $4.30 | -$0.04 | $4.42 | -$0.03 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.38 | -$0.02 | $4.48 | -$0.02 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.39 | $0.00 | $4.50 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week High | $4.48 | -$0.05 | $4.55 | -$0.03 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.17 | $0.00 | $4.32 | $0.00 |
| Technical Trend | DOWN | = | DOWN | = |
For the week January 16-22, 2026, there were net sales of 1,648,900 MT for 2025/2026, down 59% from the previous week, but up 5% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 1,671,500 MT, up 17% from the previous week and down 16% from the prior 4-week average. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.12 to $4.67 at elevators and barge points. September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.41, down 1 cent compared to last week.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis remained relatively strengthened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 32 under to 31 over the March futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 8 cents over. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $10.30 to $11.01. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.72, down 4 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $10.69 and $10.91.
| Soybeans | Sep 26 | Change | Nov 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $10.72 | -$0.04 | $10.79 | -$0.03 |
| Support | $10.68 | $0.01 | $10.74 | -$0.02 |
| Resistance | $10.80 | $0.05 | $10.87 | $0.01 |
| 20 Day MA | $10.67 | $0.01 | $10.73 | $0.02 |
| 50 Day MA | $10.84 | -$0.04 | $10.87 | -$0.04 |
| 100 Day MA | $10.82 | $0.01 | $10.84 | $0.01 |
| 4-Week High | $10.91 | $0.07 | $10.98 | $0.10 |
| 4-Week Low | $10.51 | $0.00 | $10.55 | $0.00 |
| Technical Trend | DOWN | = | DOWN | = |
For the week January 16-22, 2026, there were net sales of 819,000 MT for 2025/2026, down 67% from the previous week and down 50% from the prior 4-week average. There was another week of activity increases by China. Exports of 1,269,600 MT were down 5% from the previous and 4% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (828,500 MT), Spain (115,200 MT), Mexico (92,300 MT), Turkey (53,000 MT), and Bangladesh (53,000 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.79, down 3 cents compared to last week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for January 29th were down compared to last week. Prices were down to 61.23 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 65.98 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both down .40 cents compared to last week prices.
| Cotton | Mar 26 | Change | May 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 63.17 | -0.64 | 64.93 | -0.55 |
| Support | 62.88 | -0.66 | 64.62 | -0.61 |
| Resistance | 63.51 | -0.61 | 65.33 | -0.39 |
| 20 Day MA | 64.25 | -0.23 | 65.82 | -0.12 |
| 50 Day MA | 64.13 | -0.12 | 65.46 | -0.06 |
| 100 Day MA | 65.44 | -0.23 | 66.74 | -0.21 |
| 4-Week High | 65.76 | 0.00 | 64.30 | -2.81 |
| 4-Week Low | 62.55 | -1.02 | 65.12 | 0.00 |
| Technical Trend | DOWN | = | DOWN | = |
For the week January 16-22, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland totaling 203,700 RB for 2025/2026, down 51% from the previous week and 17% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 257,000 RB (a marketing-year high) were up 37% from the previous week and 61% from the prior 4-week average. For the week, March 2026 cotton futures closed at 63.17 on Friday, which is down .64 cents compared to last week. It traded between 62.55 to 64.40 cents. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 64.93 cents, down .55 cents compared to last week. December 2026 cotton futures closed at 68.75 cents, down .25 cents compared to last week.
Wheat
Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.93 to $5.17.
| Wheat | Jul 26 | Change | Sep 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $5.55 | $0.04 | $5.67 | $0.02 |
| Support | $5.51 | $0.09 | $5.64 | $0.08 |
| Resistance | $5.61 | $0.05 | $5.73 | $0.04 |
| 20 Day MA | $5.40 | $0.03 | $5.54 | $0.03 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.44 | -$0.02 | $5.57 | -$0.02 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.51 | -$0.01 | $5.65 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week High | $5.62 | $0.10 | $5.75 | $0.10 |
| 4-Week Low | $5.25 | $0.00 | $5.40 | $0.00 |
| Technical Trend | UP | = | UP | = |
For the week January 16-22, 2026, there was a total net sales of 558,200 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026, down 10% from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 378,800 MT, up 2% from the previous week and 19% from the prior 4-week average. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.55, up 4 cents compared to last week. July 2026 wheat futures traded between $5.42 and $5.62 this week. September 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.67, up 2 cents compared to last week.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at cmart113@utk.edu.