by Aaron Smith, Crops Marketing Specialist
March 7, 2025
Overview
Corn and soybeans were mixed; cotton was up; and wheat was down for the week.
Tariffs and retaliatory tariffs continue to create uncertainty and contribute to erratic movements in agricultural commodity markets. It appears that this uncertainty will persist for the short term. To recap, the U.S. increased tariffs on goods from China 10% in February and an additional 10% increase in March. In response, China announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, including 10% tariffs on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruit, vegetables, and dairy products and 15% tariffs on chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton. On March 4th, the U.S. implemented 25% (10% on Canadian Energy) tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. Canada announced 25% reciprocal tariffs would be imposed on $107 billion of American goods (with several Ag commodities and products potentially affected). Mexico announced it would respond on Sunday March 9 with its own retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products. On Thursday, the U.S. announced some tariffs on goods and services covered by USMCA would be paused for another month. The situation remains fluid and is likely to continue to evolve rapidly.
In the short term this back and forth with tariffs increases uncertainty in markets and has contributed to lower prices for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat. Additionally, tariffs have the potential to increase the cost of production for farmers. Two categories that could be affected are energy prices and fertilizer (approximately 85% of potash fertilizer is imported from Canada) and both Mexico and Canada provide energy to several states.
Long term impacts are more difficult to predict (positive or negative). One major concern for U.S. agriculture is loss of market share in China to Brazil and Argentina. With abundant global supplies of soybeans, purchasing countries can be selective as to where purchases are made. Loss of market share will have long-term implications.
Bottom line is most markets do not like unpredictability. So, hopefully a long-term resolution is reached sooner rather than later.
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 107.53 | 103.77 | -3.76 |
| Crude Oil | 70.04 | 66.99 | -3.05 |
| DJIA | 43,841 | 42,770 | -1,071 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 15 under to 20 over, with an average of 6 over the May futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending February 28 was 1.093 million barrels per day, up 12,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 27.289 million barrels, down 0.282 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for February 21-27 were net sales of 35.8 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 2.0 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 4% compared to last week at 49.9 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 80% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 77%. Cash prices ranged from $4.19 to $4.76 at elevators and barge points. May 2025 corn futures closed at $4.69, unchanged since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 corn futures traded between $4.42 and $4.73. July 2025 corn futures closed at $4.75, unchanged since last Friday.
| Corn | May 25 | Change | Dec 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.69 | $0.00 | $4.54 | -$0.01 |
| Support | $4.42 | -$0.17 | $4.37 | -$0.11 |
| Resistance | $4.84 | -$0.04 | $4.62 | -$0.04 |
| 20 Day MA | $4.90 | -$0.10 | $4.65 | -$0.04 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.86 | $0.02 | $4.58 | $0.01 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.63 | $0.00 | $4.48 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week High | $5.18 | $0.00 | $4.79 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.42 | -$0.27 | $4.41 | -$0.13 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
May/Jul and May/Dec future spreads were 6 and -15 cents. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.54, down 1 cent since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.60 December 2025 Put Option costing 39 cents establishing a $4.21 futures floor.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee the average soybean basis strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 33 under to 20 over the May futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 2 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 13.0 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 2.0 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 18% compared to last week at 29.1 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 89% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 89%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.66 to $10.32. May 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.25, unchanged since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 soybean futures traded between $9.91 and $10.36. The May soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.19 at the end of the week. July 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.38, down 2 cents since last Friday.
| Soybeans | May 25 | Change | Nov 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $10.25 | $0.00 | $10.25 | -$0.04 |
| Support | $10.15 | $0.04 | $10.11 | -$0.04 |
| Resistance | $10.36 | -$0.16 | $10.35 | -$0.20 |
| 20 Day MA | $10.41 | -$0.15 | $10.42 | -$0.11 |
| 50 Day MA | $10.42 | $0.03 | $10.38 | $0.04 |
| 100 Day MA | $10.29 | $9.98 | $10.28 | -$0.02 |
| 4-Week High | $10.72 | -$0.20 | $10.65 | -$0.10 |
| 4-Week Low | $9.91 | -$0.34 | $9.96 | -$0.32 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
May/Jul and May/Nov future spreads were 13 and 0 cents. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.25, down 4 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.40 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 66 cents and set a $9.74 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.26 at the end of the week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for March 6 were 63.21 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 65.21 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) decreased 2.01 cents to 51.88 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 241,500 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 105,600 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 25% compared to last week at 334,00 bales – a marketing year high. Upland cotton export sales were 96% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 95%. May 2025 cotton futures closed at 66.07 cents, up 0.82 cents since last Friday. For the week, March 2025 cotton futures traded between 62.54 and 66.39 cents. July 2025 cotton futures closed at 67.15 cents, up 0.76 cents since last Friday.
| Cotton | May 25 | Change | Dec 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 66.07 | 0.82 | 68.46 | 0.58 |
| Support | 64.10 | -0.12 | 67.06 | -0.14 |
| Resistance | 67.18 | 0.00 | 69.50 | 0.42 |
| 20 Day MA | 66.84 | -0.65 | 68.77 | -0.31 |
| 50 Day MA | 67.93 | -0.48 | 69.11 | -0.20 |
| 100 Day MA | 70.27 | -0.57 | 70.51 | -0.29 |
| 4-Week High | 69.25 | 0.00 | 70.19 | 0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | 62.54 | -2.64 | 66.00 | -1.80 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
May/Jul and May/Dec cotton futures spreads were 1.08 cents and 2.39 cents. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 68.46 cents, up 0.58 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 69 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 4.44 cents establishing a 64.56 cent futures floor.
Wheat
Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 12.4 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 2.8 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up less than 1% compared to last week at 14.0 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 89% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 97%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.80 to $4.99. May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.51, down 4 cents since last Friday. The May wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.17. May 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.30 and $5.64 this week. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.81, down 3 cents since last Friday.
| Wheat | May 25 | Change | Jul 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $5.51 | -$0.04 | $5.65 | -$0.04 |
| Support | $5.39 | -$0.06 | $5.54 | -$0.04 |
| Resistance | $5.61 | -$0.14 | $5.75 | -$0.15 |
| 20 Day MA | $5.80 | -$0.10 | $5.93 | -$0.09 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.69 | $0.00 | $5.80 | $0.01 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.75 | -$0.04 | $5.83 | -$0.04 |
| 4-Week High | $6.21 | $0.00 | $6.33 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $5.30 | -$0.25 | $5.44 | -$0.24 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
May/Jul and May/Sep future spreads were 14 and 30 cents. July cash contracts at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.06 to $5.54. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.65, down 4 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.70 July 2025 Put Option costing 38 cents establishing a $5.32 futures floor.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu.