by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist
December 5, 2025
Overview
Corn and Wheat up; Soybeans and Cotton down for the week
This week, each commodity (except soybeans) has had swings down and up. The volatility is partly driven by market reactions to various reports. For example, World soybean supply got news out of Brazil where they exported 4.2 MMT of soybeans in November, which is a 37.62% drop from last month, but 64.4% above the same month last year. Additionally, December soybean exports out of Brazil is estimated to be 2.81 MMT, a 1.34 MMT increase from last year, if realized. Another example can be found in Canadian wheat production, which was updated to 39.96 MMT this morning, which is a 3.3 MMT increase from the September total and above estimates at 38.49 MMT.
The USDA continues to update data from the shutdown, and this week, data from the week ending October 30,2025 was released. For corn in the 2025/2026 marketing year, sales was 23.5 million bushels with top destinations being Mexico and South Korea. For soybeans in the 2025/2026 marketing year, sales was 12.4 million bushels with top the destination being China. Thus, we got confirmation of sales via China this week. As data continues to get released from the shutdown timeframe, it will be interesting to watch the number and volumes of sale to China.
Couple of note. As we wind down this year, our UT budgets will be released in the coming weeks for corn, soybeans, and cotton. Additionally, the WASDE report will be coming out next week.
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 99.20 | 98.99 | -0.21 |
| Crude Oil | 59.40 | 60.02 | 0.62 |
| DJIA | 47888 | 47996 | 108 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened from last week (fifth week in a row) at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 9 cents under to 34 cents over, with an average of 16 cents over with the December futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending November 28 was 1.126 million barrels, up 13,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 22.511 million barrels, down 543,000 barrels compared to last week. Cash prices ranged from $4.29 to $4.72 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.36, which is up 1 cent compared to last Friday. For the week, December 2025 corn futures traded between $4.30 and $4.39.
| Corn | Dec 25 | Change | Mar 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.36 | $0.01 | $4.44 | -$0.03 |
| Support | $4.33 | $0.02 | $4.43 | -$0.01 |
| Resistance | $4.40 | $0.02 | $4.49 | $0.00 |
| 20 Day MA | $4.32 | $0.01 | $4.44 | $0.00 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.26 | $0.01 | $4.40 | $0.00 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.20 | $0.00 | $4.36 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week High | $4.42 | $0.00 | $4.34 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.22 | $0.00 | $4.57 | $0.00 |
| Technical Trend | UP | = | DOWN | = |
This week, new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.29 to $4.76 at elevators and barge points. March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.44, down 3 cents compared to the previous Friday.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis remained unchanged compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 43 under to 14 over the January futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 8 cents under. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $10.85 to $11.46. January 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.05, down 32 cents compared to last Friday. For the week, January 2026 soybean futures traded between $11.04 and $11.42.
| Soybeans | Jan 26 | Change | Sep 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $11.05 | -$0.32 | $11.04 | -$0.26 |
| Support | $10.99 | -$0.33 | $10.99 | -$0.26 |
| Resistance | $11.16 | -$0.25 | $11.12 | -$0.21 |
| 20 Day MA | $11.29 | -$0.02 | $11.18 | $0.01 |
| 50 Day MA | $10.87 | $0.07 | $10.92 | $0.05 |
| 100 Day MA | $10.66 | $0.04 | $10.79 | $0.03 |
| 4-Week High | $11.69 | $0.00 | $11.34 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $11.03 | $0.00 | $10.95 | $0.00 |
| Technical Trend | DOWN | = | DOWN | = |
September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.04, down 26 cents since last Friday.
Cotton
.North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for December 4th were down to 62.08 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 66.33 cents/lb (31-3-35).
| Cotton | Dec 25 | Change | Mar 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 62.13 | -0.78 | 63.93 | -0.78 |
| Support | 62.13 | -0.78 | 63.93 | -0.51 |
| Resistance | 62.13 | -0.78 | 64.29 | -0.68 |
| 20 Day MA | 62.65 | -0.68 | 64.44 | -0.40 |
| 50 Day MA | 63.92 | -0.38 | 65.61 | -0.31 |
| 100 Day MA | 65.54 | -0.28 | 67.21 | -0.21 |
| 4-Week High | 65.30 | -0.80 | 66.50 | -0.73 |
| 4-Week Low | 60.79 | 0.00 | 63.11 | 0.00 |
| Technical Trend | DOWN | = | DOWN | = |
For the week, December 2025 cotton futures traded between 62.13 to 62.83 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.8 cents and 2.87 cents. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 63.93 cents, down .78 cents compared to last Friday. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 65 cents, down .92 cents compared to last Friday.
Wheat
Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.90 to $4.96
| Wheat | Dec 25 | Change | Jul 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $5.37 | $0.06 | $5.51 | -$0.04 |
| Support | $5.36 | $0.08 | $5.48 | -$0.03 |
| Resistance | $5.38 | $0.05 | $5.55 | -$0.03 |
| 20 Day MA | $5.33 | -$0.02 | $5.62 | -$0.04 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.23 | $0.02 | $5.57 | -$0.01 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.28 | -$0.01 | $5.64 | -$0.02 |
| 4-Week High | $5.54 | -$0.01 | $5.84 | -$0.01 |
| 4-Week Low | $5.19 | $0.00 | $5.46 | -$0.03 |
| Technical Trend | UP | = | DOWN | = |
December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.37, up 6 cents compared to the previous Friday. December 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.27 and $5.42 last week. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.51, down 4 cents since last Friday.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at cmart113@utk.edu.