by Aaron Smith, Crops Marketing Specialist
February 21, 2025
Overview
Cotton and wheat were down; soybeans were up; and corn was mixed for the week.
Are we close to a top in the corn market? Strong U.S. export sales, tightening projected U.S. ending stocks, and concerns over South American corn production have propelled nearby corn futures over $5.00. The rally has seen prices move over $1.00 higher in four months. Two factors that may limit corn price advances are 2025 U.S. planted acres, fueled by the relative price difference between corn and cotton and soybeans (see below), and the potential for trade disruptions. Trade remains highly uncertain and could continue to propel higher prices, however an escalation in trade tension has the potential to have an abrupt detrimental impact on corn prices. Mitigating the downside price risk for corn held in storage should be considered. Currently, a $4.50 July put option costs less than $0.05/bu. Having a futures floor until corn is sold may be worth it for many producers. Ideally corn prices continue to rise and cash sales are made at elevated prices a month or two from now and a portion of the premium is recovered prior to expiration. Is five cents worth the peace of mind of knowing you have a futures prices floor? Maybe.
With one week remaining in the price discovery period corn, cotton, and soybean projected crop insurance prices for Tennessee are $4.72, $0.69, and $10.58. Last year’s projected crop insurance prices for corn, cotton, and soybeans were $4.66, $0.83, and $11.55. Based on the increase in projected crop insurance price for corn and decrease for cotton and soybeans, combined with limited changes year-over-year in cost of production, there is a price and risk mitigation incentive to plant corn over both cotton and soybeans. This will likely result in increased corn planted acreage in 2025, which will change the production potential for all three crops and could affect relative prices for the 2025 growing and marketing year. All else being equal, additional planted acres for corn would be negative for prices, while reduced acres for soybeans and cotton could be relatively positive. Ultimately, the weather will be the dominant factor in price direction. Pricing and risk management strategies need to incorporate updated market information as it is revealed.
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 106.62 | 106.49 | -0.13 |
| Crude Oil | 70.7 | 70.34 | -0.36 |
| DJIA | 44,587 | 43,403 | -1,185 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 15 under to 30 over, with an average of 14 over the March futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending February 14 was 1.084 million barrels per day, up 2,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 26.218 million barrels, up 0.526 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for February 7-13 were net sales of 57.2 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 19% compared to last week at 63.2 million bushels – a marketing year high. Corn export sales and commitments were 77% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 74%. Cash prices ranged from $4.64 to $5.32 at elevators and barge points. March 2025 corn futures closed at $4.91, down 5 cents since last Friday. For the week, March 2025 corn futures traded between $4.90 and $5.04. May 2025 corn futures closed at $5.05, down 3 cents since last Friday.
| Corn | Mar 25 | Change | Dec 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.91 | -$0.05 | $4.75 | $0.02 |
| Support | $4.87 | $0.05 | $4.71 | $0.03 |
| Resistance | $5.05 | $0.00 | $4.82 | $0.05 |
| 20 Day MA | $4.91 | $0.02 | $4.68 | $0.03 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.71 | $0.04 | $4.55 | $0.04 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.52 | $0.02 | $4.48 | $0.01 |
| 4-Week High | $5.04 | $0.05 | $4.79 | $0.05 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.72 | $0.00 | $4.53 | $0.04 |
| Technical Trend | Up | = | Up | = |
Mar/May and Mar/Dec future spreads were 14 and -16 cents. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.75, up 2 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.80 December 2025 Put Option costing 39 cents establishing a $4.41 futures floor.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee the average soybean basis strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 33 under to 20 over the March futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 1 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 17.6 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 0.7 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 33% compared to last week at 27.2 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 88% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 88%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.98 to $10.72. March 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.39, up 3 cents since last Friday. For the week, March 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.26 and $10.49. The March soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.15 at the end of the week. May 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.57, up 5 cents since last Friday.
| Soybeans | Mar 25 | Change | Nov 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $10.39 | $0.03 | $10.59 | $0.07 |
| Support | $10.26 | $0.06 | $10.46 | $0.08 |
| Resistance | $10.55 | $0.13 | $10.69 | $0.06 |
| 20 Day MA | $10.46 | -$0.04 | $10.55 | $0.02 |
| 50 Day MA | $10.23 | $0.04 | $10.31 | $0.05 |
| 100 Day MA | $10.21 | -$0.01 | $10.33 | -$0.01 |
| 4-Week High | $10.79 | $0.00 | $10.75 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $10.24 | $0.06 | $10.37 | $0.19 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | – |
Mar/May and Mar/Nov future spreads were 18 and 20 cents. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.59, up 7 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.60 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 59 cents and set a $10.01 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.23 at the end of the week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for February 20 were 65.47 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 67.47 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) increased 0.68 cents to 54.67 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 312,500 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 34,300 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 18% compared to last week at 298,300 bales – a marketing year high. Upland cotton export sales were 92% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 92%. March 2025 cotton futures closed at 66.08 cents, down 1.03 cents since last Friday. For the week, March 2025 cotton futures traded between 65.48 and 67.95 cents. May 2025 cotton futures closed at 67.34 cents, down 0.97 cents since last Friday.
| Cotton | Mar 25 | Change | Dec 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 66.08 | -1.03 | 69.15 | -0.24 |
| Support | 65.45 | -0.81 | 68.81 | 0.17 |
| Resistance | 66.93 | -0.89 | 69.55 | -0.68 |
| 20 Day MA | 66.61 | -0.22 | 69.18 | 0.02 |
| 50 Day MA | 67.65 | -0.34 | 69.51 | -0.19 |
| 100 Day MA | 70.07 | -0.35 | 71.03 | -0.15 |
| 4-Week High | 68.44 | 0.00 | 70.19 | 0.02 |
| 4-Week Low | 65.01 | 0.00 | 67.83 | 0.00 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Up | = |
Mar/May and Mar/Dec cotton futures spreads were 1.26 cents and 3.07 cents. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 69.15 cents, down 0.24 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 70 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 4.43 cents establishing a 65.57 cent futures floor.
Wheat
Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 19.6 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 3.6 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 60% compared to last week at 8.6 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 86% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 94%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.45 to $5.70. March 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.90, down 10 cents since last Friday. The March wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.20. March 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.83 and $6.09 this week. May 2025 wheat futures closed at $6.04, down 9 cents since last Friday.
| Wheat | Mar 25 | Change | Jul 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $5.90 | -$0.10 | $6.17 | -$0.08 |
| Support | $5.76 | $0.09 | $6.05 | $0.13 |
| Resistance | $6.00 | -$0.18 | $6.27 | -$0.16 |
| 20 Day MA | $5.74 | $0.09 | $5.99 | $0.09 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.56 | $0.03 | $5.78 | $0.04 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.70 | -$0.01 | $5.90 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week High | $6.09 | $0.07 | $6.33 | $0.06 |
| 4-Week Low | $5.32 | $0.00 | $5.58 | $0.03 |
| Technical Trend | Up | = | Up | = |
Mar/May and Mar/Jul future spreads were 14 and 27 cents. July cash contracts at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.45 to $6.21. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $6.17, down 8 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $6.20 July 2025 Put Option costing 44 cents establishing a $5.76 futures floor.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu.