Crop Comments

by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist

June 12, 2026

Overview

Overview

Wheat up for the week; Corn, Soybeans, and Cotton down for the week

This week’s outlook points to largely steady conditions across row crops, with a few notable shifts. In the WASDE, U.S. wheat is facing tighter supplies due to lower production and yields, pulling ending stocks down sharply from last year and lowering expected prices, even as global supplies increase modestly; winter wheat production is also down significantly year-over-year. Corn outlooks remain mostly unchanged, with stable prices near $4.40/bushel, slight softness in futures, stronger basis in parts of Tennessee, and improving crop conditions locally despite mixed national ratings and solid export activity. Soybeans continue to hold a steady overall outlook with unchanged USDA projections, though weaker exports and slightly lower futures weighed on prices, even as crop development progresses quickly. Cotton prices trended lower this week, with declines in both spot prices and futures.

Across all crops, recent declines in fuel prices, especially diesel, offer some short-term cost relief, but expenses remain well above last year, continuing to pressure producer margins. Wishing everyone a great weekend!

WASDE

Wheat

U.S. wheat supplies for 2026/27 are projected lower due to reduced production, driven mainly by weaker Hard Red Winter output and slightly lower yields. Ending stocks are forecasted to go down to 744 million bushels (−20% year-over-year), while exports remain unchanged but below last year. The season-average farm price is lowered to $6.00/bushel. Globally, production, consumption, and stocks are all slightly higher, with gains led by Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine.

Corn

The U.S. corn outlook for 2026/27 is largely unchanged, with minimal adjustments to beginning and ending stocks tied to prior-year trade and usage revisions. The farm price remains at $4.40/bushel. Globally, corn production and ending stocks are modestly higher, supported by increased output in countries like India, Brazil, and Argentina.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean projections for 2026/27 are unchanged across supply, use, and price, with the season-average price at $11.40/bushel. For 2025/26, higher crush demand is offset by lower exports, leaving ending stocks unchanged.

Crop Production

Winter wheat production is projected at 1.03 billion bushels, a decrease of 2% from the May 1 estimate and 27% lower than in 2025. As of June 1, the national average yield is expected to be 46.8 bushels per acre, which is 0.8 bushel below last month’s forecast and 8.1 bushels lower than last year’s average yield of 54.9 bushels per acre.

Fuel

The table below reflects a modest but still partial decline in fuel costs in Tennessee, coming at a time when most producers have completed, or are nearing completion of, planting activities. Today’s average prices are $3.66 for Regular and $4.87 for Diesel and have declined noticeably from last week and last month, offering some short-term relief as seasonal fieldwork progresses. In particular, diesel, has fallen from $5.20 a month ago to $4.87 today, potentially lowering per-acre operating costs. However, despite these recent declines, fuel prices remain significantly higher than a year ago, when diesel averaged just $3.23 and regular gasoline $2.69. This means that even with recent improvements, producers are still facing elevated energy costs compared to last season, which can continue to pressure margins, especially when combined with other high input costs like fertilizer and seed. Overall, while the downward trend is encouraging, fuel expenses remain a key concern for profitability in row crop production.

Fuel	Regular	Mid-Grade	Premium	Diesel	E85
Current Avg.	$3.66	$4.13	$4.54	$4.87	$3.30
Yesterday Avg.	$3.68	$4.15	$4.56	$4.89	$3.32
Week Ago Avg.	$3.82	$4.29	$4.70	$4.98	$3.49
Month Ago Avg.	$4.14	$4.60	$5.00	$5.20	$3.63
Year Ago Avg.	$2.69	$3.14	$3.54	$3.23	$2.57

Indicator	Previous	Current	Change
USD Index	100.06	99.73	-0.33
Crude Oil	79.41	77.13	-2.28
DJIA	50879	51221	342

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 25 cents under to 21 cents over, with an average of 1 cent over with the July futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending June 5th was 1.108 million barrels, unchanged compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 24.452 million barrels, down 154,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $3.87 to $4.45 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.20, which is down 7 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 corn futures traded between $4.16 and $4.33.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 67% good-to-excellent (down 2% from last week) and 6% poor-to-very poor (up 1% from last week); corn emerged to be 86% compared to 76% last week, 86% year, and a 5-year average of 86%; corn planted to be 97% compared to 93% last week, 96% last year, and a 5-year average of 96%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 69% good-to-excellent (up 12% from last week) and 8% poor-to-very poor (unchanged from last week); corn emerged to be 95% compared to 94% last week, 85% last year, and a 5-year average of 92%; corn planted to be 98% compared to 98% last week, 94% last year, and a 5-year average of 97%. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $3.92 to $4.47 at elevators and barge points. For the week of May 29-June 4, 2026, net sales of 1,000,400 MT for 2025/2026 were up 13% percent from the previous week, but down 15% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 926,900 MT for 2026/2027 were primarily for Japan (241,000 MT), Colombia (237,500 MT), South Korea (204,000 MT), Mexico (80,000 MT), and unknown destinations (65,200 MT). Exports of 1,916,200 MT were up 11% from the previous week and 19% from the prior 4-week average. December corn futures closed at $4.40, down 5 cents from last week.

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis weakened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 25 under to 20 over the July futures contract, with an average basis of 2 under at the end of the week. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $10.74 to $11.44. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.17, down 5 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $11.13 and $11.31.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 65% good-to-excellent (down 2% from last week) and 6% poor-to-very poor (up 1% from last week); soybean emerged to be 79% compared to 65% last week, 73% last year, and a 5-year average of 71%; soybean planted to be 92% compared to 87% last week, 89% last year, and a 5-year average of 88%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 63% good-to-excellent (unchanged from last week) compared to 8% poor-to-very poor (up 1% from last week); emerged to be 83% compared to 78% last week, 59% last year, and a 5-year average of 61%; soybean planted to be 90% compared to 86% last week, 72% last year, and a 5-year average of 74%. For the week of May 29-June 4, 2026, there were net sales of 211,300 MT for 2025/2026 were down 24% from the previous week and 18% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 141,500 MT for 2026/2027 were reported for unknown destinations (120,000 MT), Malaysia (10,000 MT), Indonesia (8,000 MT), and Taiwan (3,500 MT). Exports of 411,500 MT were down 28% from the previous week and 30 from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Egypt (118,600 MT), Japan (85,100 MT), Mexico (82,400 MT), China (68,100 MT), and Indonesia (25,600 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.32, down 5 cents compared to last week.

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for June 4th were noticeably down compared to last week. Prices were 69.49 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 74.24 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both down 2.4 cents compared to last week’s prices.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton squaring to be 13% compared to 7% last week, 11% last year, and a 5-year average of 11%; cotton planted to be 77% compared to 66% last week, 75% last year, and a 5-year average of 77%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton squaring to be 16% compared to 6% last week, 7% last year, and a 5-year average of 9%; cotton planted to be 97% compared to 93% last week, 84% last year, and a 5-year average of 92%. For the week May 29-June 4, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland totaling 207,000 RB for 2025/2026 were up 12 percent from the previous week and 60% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 298,700 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for Vietnam (180,000 RB), Nicaragua (39,700 RB), Turkey (28,600 RB), Mexico (23,000 RB), and unknown destinations (13,200 RB). Exports of 300,100 RB were up 12% from the previous week and 3% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (109,200 RB), Pakistan (49,400 RB), India (35,800 RB), Mexico (23,100 RB), and Bangladesh (22,300 RB). For the week, December 2026 cotton futures closed at 76.42 cents, down 1.06 cents compared to last week. March 2027 cotton futures closed at 77.64 cents, down 1.16 cents compared to last week.

Wheat

Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.33 to $5.90.

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Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated spring wheat emerged to be 87% compared to 72% last week, 81% last year, and a 5-year average of 80%; spring wheat planted to be 98% compared to 94% last week, 98% last year, and a 5-year average of 95%. The report estimated winter wheat headed to be 92% compared to 87% last week, 82% last year, and a 5-year average of 85%. For the week of May 29-June 4, 2026, net sales of 666,300 metric tons (MT) for the 2026/2027 marketing year, which began June 1. A total of 298,600 MT in sales were carried over from the 2025/2026 marketing year, which ended May 31. Exports for the period ending May 31, of 145,600 MT brought accumulated exports to 23,408,000 MT, up 11% from the prior year’s total of 21,107,400 MT. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (71,600 MT), South Korea (19,700 MT), Venezuela (17,000 MT), Trinidad and Tobago (10,300 MT), and Burma (8,300 MT). Exports for June 1-5 of 266,100 MT were primarily to Mexico (67,400 MT), Indonesia (44,100 MT), the Philippines (35,900 MT), Venezuela (30,700 MT), and Italy (23,000 MT).

Additional Information

Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news

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