by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist
November 7, 2025
Overview
Soybeans up for the week; Corn, cotton, and wheat down for the week
The government shutdown has continued and due to the shutdown, this week’s comments are void of crop progress, and trade data. Thus, movement in prices is based on local and futures markets.
This week was a microcosm of the markets lately. Crop prices started the week holding steady compared to the end of last week. Then on Wednesday morning, news broke that China would be removing tariffs on US goods and the markets responded by hitting prices levels that were the highest in some time. Then on Thursday, futures prices decreased such that all the gains from the day prior were erased and then some. Friday had futures prices increasing back up such that there were marginal gains in some markets compared to last Friday.
In the spot markets throughout Tennessee, Wednesday prices offered were the highest in many markets since this past May and July 2024, for corn and soybeans, respectively. Prices decreased on Thursday to levels that were near to what we saw last week. The volatility in cash and futures market is what the markets have been experiencing over the last few weeks. The question becomes when will the market get data to help understand the movements? The answer to that is next week. The WASDE report for November is expected to be released next week. This will be refreshing sight, although it will come after many folks have harvested for the fall. But, for folks that have commodity in storage, the WASDE report might provide marketing opportunity information and give foundation to marketing strategies for the stored crop in 2026.
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 99.80 | 99.51 | -0.29 |
| Crude Oil | 60.91 | 59.78 | -1.13 |
| DJIA | 47558 | 46833 | -725 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 30 cents under to 25 cents over, with an average of 2 cents over with the December futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending October 31 was 1.123 million barrels, up 32,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 22.655 million barrels, up 288,000 barrels compared to last week. Cash prices ranged from $4.02 to $4.61 at elevators and barge points. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.27, which is down 4 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 corn futures traded between $4.26 and $4.36.
| Corn | Dec 25 | Change | Mar 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.27 | -$0.04 | $4.42 | -$0.02 |
| Support | $4.26 | $0.00 | $4.40 | $0.01 |
| Resistance | $4.32 | -$0.03 | $4.47 | -$0.01 |
| 20 Day MA | $4.25 | $0.03 | $4.39 | $0.02 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.23 | $0.02 | $4.39 | $0.02 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.19 | $0.00 | $4.35 | -$0.01 |
| 4-Week High | $4.37 | $0.00 | $4.25 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.09 | $0.00 | $4.50 | $0.00 |
| Technical Trend | DOWN | = | DOWN | = |
This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $4.15 to $4.66 at elevators and barge points. March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.42, down 2 cents since last Friday.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened compared to last week (third week in a row) at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 59 under to 43 over the November futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 9 cents over. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $10.72 to $11.54. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $11.02, up 2 cents since last Friday. For the week, November 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.90 and $11.20.
| Soybeans | Nov 25 | Change | Jan 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $11.01 | $0.02 | $11.17 | $0.02 |
| Support | $10.82 | $0.17 | $10.96 | $0.16 |
| Resistance | $11.07 | -$0.02 | $11.26 | $0.02 |
| 20 Day MA | $10.59 | $0.22 | $10.76 | $0.22 |
| 50 Day MA | $10.39 | $0.06 | $10.57 | $0.06 |
| 100 Day MA | $10.32 | $0.03 | $10.49 | $0.03 |
| 4-Week High | $11.20 | $0.19 | $11.37 | $0.23 |
| 4-Week Low | $10.01 | $0.08 | $10.18 | $0.06 |
| Technical Trend | UP | = | UP | = |
January 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.17, up 2 cents since last Friday. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.58 at the end of the week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for November 6th were up to 62.02 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 66.79 cents/lb (31-3-35).
| Cotton | Dec 25 | Change | Mar 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 63.62 | -1.92 | 65.14 | -1.59 |
| Support | 64.23 | -0.20 | 64.78 | -1.25 |
| Resistance | 65.07 | -0.86 | 65.74 | -1.69 |
| 20 Day MA | 64.50 | 0.07 | 65.98 | -0.08 |
| 50 Day MA | 65.41 | -0.24 | 67.15 | -0.28 |
| 100 Day MA | 66.57 | -0.14 | 68.14 | -0.14 |
| 4-Week High | 66.10 | 0.00 | 67.57 | -0.21 |
| 4-Week Low | 62.71 | 0.00 | 64.45 | 0.00 |
| Technical Trend | DOWN | = | DOWN | = |
December 2025 cotton futures closed at 63.62 cents, down 1.92 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 cotton futures traded between 63.52 to 66.04 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.52 cents and 2.73 cents. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 65.14 cents, down 1.59 cents since last Friday. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 66.35 cents, down 1.55 cents since last Friday.
Wheat
Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.69 to $5.09.
| Wheat | Dec 25 | Change | Jul 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $5.27 | -$0.07 | $5.61 | -$0.06 |
| Support | $5.23 | $0.06 | $5.58 | $0.02 |
| Resistance | $5.34 | $0.01 | $5.67 | -$0.02 |
| 20 Day MA | $5.19 | $0.09 | $5.56 | $0.07 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.19 | $0.02 | $5.57 | $0.01 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.35 | -$0.02 | $5.73 | -$0.02 |
| 4-Week High | $5.55 | $0.20 | $5.85 | $0.12 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.92 | $0.00 | $5.33 | $0.00 |
| Technical Trend | DOWN | = | DOWN | = |
December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.27, down 7 cents since last Friday. December 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.26 and $5.55 this week. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.61, down 6 cents since than last Friday.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at cmart113@utk.edu.