Crop Comments

by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist

May 22, 2026

Overview

Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat up for the week; Cotton down for the week

There were no significant reports this week form an outlook standpoint from USDA. But, crop producers continue to face a mixed outlook as the season progresses, with input costs remaining a primary concern. Diesel prices are holding steady near $5.65 per gallon, well above last year, keeping pressure on operating expenses for fieldwork, irrigation, and transportation, while also driving up fertilizer, chemical, and freight costs across the supply chain. On the crop side, corn and soybean markets are showing some strength locally, with basis levels improving across much of Tennessee and crop progress running ahead of normal, particularly in the state. Corn planting is nearly complete and well ahead of last year, while soybean planting and emergence are also progressing quickly. Futures prices have been relatively stable, with modest gains in soybeans and slight weakness in corn, though strong export sales provide some support. Cotton prices, however, have softened compared to last week despite solid planting progress, and wheat markets remain steady with moderate cash prices but weaker export movement. Overall, stronger local basis and solid planting pace are positives, but elevated fuel costs and some softening futures prices mean margins remain tight, making careful marketing and cost management especially important. Wishing everyone a great weekend!

Fuel

The table below shows that prices remain elevated, with a current diesel average of $5.65 per gallon, only slightly down from yesterday and a week ago, but still significantly higher than a year ago ($3.55). Gasoline prices (regular through premium) follow a similar pattern, increasing more than a dollar per gallon compared to last year, while E85 is lower but has still risen from $2.62 to $3.67 over the same period. Impacts have been mentioned on diesel powers tractors, combines, irrigation systems, and trucks used for hauling grain, meaning the price increases have significantly raised operating expenses. These lingering higher fuel costs also ripple through the supply chain, increasing fertilizer, chemical, and transportation costs, which ultimately squeeze profit margin opportunities. The short-term stability is positive, but current prices offer little relief when compared to the sharp year-over-year increase, making budgeting and risk management decisions for producers even more important.

Fuel	Regular	Mid-Grade	Premium	Diesel	E85
Current Avg.	$4.55	$5.05	$5.42	$5.65	$3.67
Yesterday Avg.	$4.56	$5.06	$5.43	$5.66	$3.69
Week Ago Avg.	$4.53	$5.02	$5.39	$5.66	$3.66
Month Ago Avg.	$4.02	$4.53	$4.90	$5.49	$3.15
Year Ago Avg.	$3.20	$3.69	$4.04	$3.55	$2.62

Indicator	Previous	Current	Change
USD Index	99.29	99.25	-0.04
Crude Oil	83.27	96.46	13.19
DJIA	49609	50716	1107

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 30 cents under to 20 cents over, with an average of 1 cent over with the July futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending May 15th was 1.111 million barrels, up 29,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 24.875 million barrels, up 5,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.33 to $5.07 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.70, which is down 7 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 corn futures traded between $4.67 and $4.86.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn emerged to be 39% compared to 23% last week, 47% year, and a 5-year average of 37%; corn planted to be 76% compared to 57% last week, 76% last year, and a 5-year average of 70%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated corn emerged to be 84% compared to 73% last week, 63% last year, and a 5-year average of 62%; corn planted to be 96% compared to 92% last week, 82% last year, and a 5-year average of 85%. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.37 to $5 at elevators and barge points. For the week of May 8-14, 2026, there were net sales of  2,125,300 MT for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 71% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 281,400 MT for 2026/2027 were reported for Mexico (255,100 MT), unknown destinations (22,000 MT), and Jamaica (4,300 MT). Exports of 1,445,700 MT were down 13% from the previous week and 21% from the prior 4-week average. December corn futures closed at $4.86, up 5 cents from last week.

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 30 under to 20 over the July futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 1/10 cents over. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $11.54 to $12.38. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.80, up 18 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $11.76 and $12.01.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean emerged to be 32% compared to 20% last week, 32% last year, and a 5-year average of 32%; soybean planted to be 67% compared to 49% last week, 63% last year, and a 5-year average of 53%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated soybeans emerged to be 60% compared to 52% last week, 32% last year, and a 5-year average of 26%; soybean planted to be 80% compared to 76% last week, 52% last year, and a 5-year average of 48%. For the week of May 8-14, 2026, there were net sales of 351,400 MT for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 62% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 528,800 MT were down 21% from the previous week and 18% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (272,000 MT), Egypt (93,300 MT), Mexico (76,100 MT), Indonesia (25,600 MT), and Japan (23,600 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.88, up 17 cents compared to last week.

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for May 21st were noticeably down compared to last week. Prices were 74.98 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 79.73 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both down 5.96 cents compared to last week’s prices.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton planted to be 41% compared to 29% last week, 38% last year, and a 5-year average of 40%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton planted to be 73% compared to 49% last week, 46% last year, and a 5-year average of 46%. For the week May 8-14,2026, there was a total net sales of Upland totaling 131,800 RB for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 16% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 216,000 RB for 2026/2027 were reported for Pakistan (206,100 RB), Indonesia (4,500 RB), Turkey (4,500 RB), and Mexico (900 RB). Exports of 289,400 RB were unchanged from the previous week, but down 11% from the prior 4-week average. For the week, December 2026 cotton futures closed at 79.33 cents, down 2.58 cents compared to last week. March 2027 cotton futures closed at 80.19 cents, down 2.36 cents compared to last week.

Wheat

Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $6.28 to $6.52.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated spring wheat emerged to be 39% compared to 23% last week, 42% last year, and a 5-year average of 34%; spring wheat planted to be 73% compared to 53% last week, 80% last year, and a 5-year average of 66%. The report estimated winter wheat headed to be 71% compared to 61% last week, 62% last year, and a 5-year average of 58%. For the week of May 8-14, 2026, net sales of 166,300 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 25% from the previous week and 28% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 130,500 MT for 2026/2027 were primarily for unknown destinations (51,500 MT), Mexico (38,800 MT), Colombia (20,700 MT), Italy (15,000 MT), and Panama (2,100 MT). Exports of 230,300 MT were down 48% from the previous week and 49% from the prior 4-week average. 

Additional Information

Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news

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