Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook
The following is a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based on 2018 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2023 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2023 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.
The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith.
June 12, 2025 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates
Corn
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
.July 2025 corn futures closed up 1 ½ cents at $4.38 ½ with a trading range for the day of $4.35 ¼ to $4.41 ¾. December 2025 corn futures closed up ¾ cents for the day at $4.40 ½ with a trading range for the day of $4.37 ¾ to $4.43 ¼. Limited changes to domestic and foreign supply and demand estimates leave under lying fundamental outlook and price range unchanged. Exports remain a positive factor for corn prices.
USDA Summary
The 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month, with lower beginning and ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 30, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. Beginning stocks are down 50 million bushels reflecting a forecast increase in exports for 2024/25. Exports are raised 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April, inspection data during the month of May, and current outstanding sales. With no use changes for 2025/26, ending stocks are lowered 50 million bushels to 1.8 billion. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.20 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast higher. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production and trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher with an increase for India.
For 2024/25, corn exports are lowered for Argentina but raised for the United States and Canada. Corn imports are lowered for China and Canada with increases for Turkey, Indonesia, and Iraq. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are reduced, with cuts to China, South Africa, India, and Canada partially offset by an increase for Argentina. Global corn ending stocks, at 10.834 billion bushels, are down 102 million.
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 Est. | 2025/26 Projected May | 2025/26 Projected June | 2025/26 Change from Previous Month | Change 2025/26-2024/25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 90.6 | 95.3 | 95.3 | 0.0 | 4.7 |
| Harvested (Million) | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 82.9 | 87.4 | 87.4 | 0.0 | 4.5 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 179.3 | 181 | 181 | 0.0 | 1.7 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,415 | 1,365 | -50 | -398 |
| Production | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,341 | 14,867 | 15,820 | 15,820 | 0 | 953 |
| Imports | 24 | 39 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Supply | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,729 | 16,655 | 17,260 | 17,210 | -50 | 555 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Feed and Residual | 5,671 | 5,486 | 5,805 | 5,750 | 5,900 | 5,900 | 0 | 150 |
| Ethanol | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,478 | 5,500 | 5,500 | 5,500 | 0 | 0 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 1,437 | 1,382 | 1,390 | 1,390 | 1,385 | 1,385 | 0 | -5 |
| Exports | 2,472 | 1,662 | 2,292 | 2,650 | 2,675 | 2,675 | 0 | 25 |
| Total Use | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,966 | 15,290 | 15,460 | 15,460 | 0 | 170 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,365 | 1,800 | 1,750 | -50 | 385 |
| Foreign Stocks | 10,858 | 10,638 | 10,673 | 9,856 | 9,138 | 9,085 | -53 | -771 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $6.00 | $6.54 | $4.55 | $4.35 | $4.20 | $4.20 | $0.00 | -$0.15 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 9.24% | 9.92% | 11.78% | 9.28% | 11.64% | 11.32% | $0.00 | $0.02 |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 11,221 | 49,839 | 7,381 | 31,569 | 50,225 | 7,709 | 10,836 |
| United States | 1,365 | 15,820 | 25 | 5,900 | 12,785 | 2,675 | 1,750 |
| Total Foreign | 9,856 | 34,019 | 7,356 | 25,670 | 37,440 | 5,034 | 9,085 |
| Argentina | 109 | 2,087 | 0 | 441 | 614 | 1,457 | 126 |
| Brazil | 236 | 5,157 | 63 | 2,579 | 3,661 | 1,693 | 102 |
| Russia | 36 | 591 | 2 | 398 | 441 | 142 | 46 |
| South Africa | 50 | 650 | 0 | 280 | 559 | 75 | 65 |
| Ukraine | 12 | 1,201 | 0 | 209 | 245 | 945 | 24 |
| Egypt | 52 | 285 | 344 | 524 | 622 | 0 | 60 |
| E.U. | 249 | 2,362 | 807 | 2,272 | 3,063 | 118 | 237 |
| Japan | 50 | 1 | 610 | 480 | 610 | 0 | 51 |
| Mexico | 226 | 965 | 984 | 1,102 | 1,949 | 1 | 225 |
| SE Asia | 109 | 1,231 | 846 | 1,622 | 2,039 | 24 | 122 |
| South Korea | 82 | 4 | 453 | 368 | 457 | 0 | 82 |
| Canada | 65 | 579 | 98 | 374 | 591 | 83 | 69 |
| China | 7,763 | 11,614 | 394 | 9,409 | 12,637 | 1 | 7,132 |
| ROW | 818 | 7,295 | 2,753 | 5,613 | 9,952 | 496 | 745 |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) Current – Previous Month 2025/26
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -89 | 39 | 0 | 14 | 54 | 0 | -102 |
| United States | -50 | – | – | – | – | – | -50 |
| Total Foreign | -39 | 39 | – | 14 | 54 | – | -53 |
| Argentina | 16 | – | – | – | – | – | 16 |
| Brazil | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Russia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| South Africa | -13 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 |
| Ukraine | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Egypt | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| E.U. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SE Asia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| South Korea | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Canada | -12 | – | – | -4 | -4 | – | -8 |
| China | -39 | – | – | 0 | 0 | – | -39 |
| ROW | 9 | 39 | – | 18 | 57 | – | -9 |
Cotton
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
July 25 cotton futures closed down 0.33 cents at 65.14 with a trading range for the day of 64.69 to 65.47 cents. December 2025 cotton futures closed down 0.18 cents at 67.47 cents with a trading range for the day of 67.02 to 67.67 cents. Adjustments to harvested acres and yield were a minor surprise as USDA usually waits to make adjustments. World and U.S. stocks are projected down compared to last month, however demand remains the primary concern in global cotton markets.
USDA Summary
The 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet is revised to show lower production, beginning stocks and ending stocks, with consumption, imports, and exports unchanged from last month. Harvested area is lowered 2 percent to 8.19 million acres following extensive rainfall and delayed planting in the Delta. The national average yield for 2025/26 is reduced more than 1 percent from last month to 820 pounds per harvested acre, also because of the conditions in the Delta. As a result, the production forecast is reduced 500,000 bales to 14.0 million, below the 14.4 million bales produced in 2024/25 and the second smallest crop in the past decade. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are reduced 400,000 bales following a corresponding increase in projected exports for 2024/25. As a result, 2025/26 ending stocks are lowered 900,000 bales to 4.3 million, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 30.3 percent. The projected season-average price for 2025/26 is unchanged this month at 62 cents per pound.
For the 2025/26 world cotton balance sheet, production, consumption, beginning and ending stocks, and world trade are all revised downward. World production is lowered over 800,000 bales as a 1-million bale increase for China is more than offset by reductions for India, the United States, and Pakistan. Consumption is reduced over 300,000 bales for 2025/26 as an increase for Egypt is more than offset by reductions for India, Turkey and Bangladesh, with small changes elsewhere. Revisions to trade are largely offsetting as global exports are lowered 40,000 bales. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are lowered over 1.1 million bales, largely reflecting a 1-million reduction in India’s 2024/25 crop. As a result, global ending stocks for 2025/26 are lowered nearly 1.6 million bales, primarily reflecting the reduction in beginning stocks and a decrease in production that exceeds the decrease in consumption.
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 Est. | 2025/26 Projected May | 2025/26 Projected June | 2025/26 Change from Previous Month | Change 2025/26-2024/25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 11.21 | 13.75 | 10.23 | 11.18 | 9.87 | 9.87 | 0 | -1.31 |
| Harvested (Million) | 10.26 | 7.29 | 6.44 | 7.81 | 8.37 | 8.19 | -0.18 | 0.38 |
| U.S. Average Yield (lb/acre) | 820 | 953 | 899 | 886 | 832 | 820 | -12 | -66 |
| Supply (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 3.15 | 4.6 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 4.8 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 1.25 |
| Production | 17.52 | 14.47 | 12.07 | 14.41 | 14.5 | 14 | -0.5 | -0.41 |
| Imports | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Supply | 20.68 | 19.07 | 16.72 | 17.57 | 19.31 | 18.41 | -0.9 | 0.84 |
| Use and Stocks (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Domestic | 2.55 | 2.05 | 1.85 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Exports | 14.48 | 12.45 | 11.75 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Total Use | 17.03 | 14.5 | 13.6 | 13.2 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 0 | 1 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 4.05 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 4.3 | -0.9 | -0.1 |
| Foreign Stocks | 72.27 | 71.25 | 70.59 | 72.89 | 73.18 | 72.5 | -0.68 | -0.39 |
| Chinese Stocks | 38.06 | 33.36 | 36.72 | 37.12 | 37.02 | 37.02 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/lb) | $0.914 | $0.848 | $0.761 | $0.630 | $0.620 | $0.620 | $0.00 | -$0.01 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 24% | 32% | 23% | 38% | 37% | 30% | -6.34% | -$0.07 |
| Chinese Stocks/Use | 115.3% | 88.5% | 94.4% | 101.7% | 101.4% | 101.4% | 0.00% | $0.00 |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 77.29 | 116.99 | 44.82 | 117.76 | 44.79 | -0.25 | 76.8 |
| United States | 4.4 | 14 | 0.01 | 1.7 | 12.5 | -0.1 | 4.3 |
| Total Foreign | 72.89 | 102.99 | 44.81 | 116.06 | 32.29 | -0.15 | 72.5 |
| Central Asia | 2.87 | 5.1 | 0.2 | 4.08 | 1.44 | 0 | 2.65 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | 1.41 | 4.83 | 0 | 0.11 | 4.83 | 0 | 1.31 |
| Australia | 4.93 | 4.1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -0.15 | 4.18 |
| Brazil | 3.82 | 18.25 | 0.01 | 3.5 | 14.3 | 0 | 4.27 |
| India | 9.7 | 23.5 | 3 | 25.5 | 1 | 0 | 9.7 |
| Mexico | 0.22 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.25 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.17 |
| China | 37.12 | 30 | 6.5 | 36.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 37.02 |
| E.U. | 0.29 | 1.28 | 0.51 | 0.55 | 1.24 | 0 | 0.28 |
| Turkey | 1.35 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 1 | 0 | 1.45 |
| Pakistan | 2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 10.6 | 0.05 | 0 | 1.85 |
| Indonesia | 0.38 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.02 | 0 | 0.37 |
| Thailand | 0.09 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 |
| Bangladesh | 1.76 | 0.15 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 0 | 0 | 1.92 |
| Vietnam | 1.04 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1.04 |
| ROW | 5.91 | 6.28 | 4.99 | 7.77 | 3.21 | 0.00 | 6.2 |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) Current – Previous Month 2025/26
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -1.11 | -0.82 | – | -0.32 | -0.04 | 0.00 | -1.58 |
| United States | -0.4 | -0.5 | – | – | – | – | -0.9 |
| Total Foreign | -0.71 | -0.32 | – | – | – | – | -0.68 |
| Central Asia | -0.02 | -0.02 | – | -0.01 | -0.02 | – | -0.02 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | – | – | – | – | 0.03 | – | -0.02 |
| Australia | 0.2 | – | – | – | 0.1 | – | 0.1 |
| Brazil | -0.1 | – | – | – | 0.3 | – | -0.4 |
| India | -0.3 | -1 | – | -0.5 | -0.5 | – | -0.3 |
| Mexico | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| China | -0.5 | 1 | -0.5 | – | – | – | – |
| E.U. | -0.01 | – | – | – | 0.05 | – | -0.06 |
| Turkey | – | – | -0.2 | -0.2 | – | – | – |
| Pakistan | – | -0.3 | 0.3 | – | – | – | – |
| Indonesia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Thailand | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Bangladesh | – | – | -0.1 | -0.1 | – | – | – |
| Vietnam | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | 0.02 | – | 0.5 | 0.49 | – | – | 0.02 |
Soybeans
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
July 2025 soybean futures were down 8 ¼ cents for the day closing at $10.42 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $10.38 ½ to $10.56 ¼. November 2025 soybean futures closed down 2 cents at $10.27 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $10.22 to $10.38. No major changes to U.S. or foreign estimates. Global stocks continue to climb which will limit price increases.
USDA Summary
U.S. 2025/26 soybean supply, use, and price projections are unchanged this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.25 per bushel; soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $310 per short ton and 46 cents per pound, respectively.
Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2025/26 include higher beginning stocks, unchanged production, slightly higher crush, and higher ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised on a 37-million-bushel reduction to crush for China in the prior marketing year, guided by the slower-than-expected reported weekly pace to date. Crush for 2025/26 is raised 4 million bushels on higher use by Pakistan, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. With exports unchanged, global ending stocks are raised 37 million bushels to 4.604 billion, mainly on higher stocks for China. Another notable revision is higher palm oil production for Malaysia for 2024/25 and 2025/26 based on an expected recovery after widespread flooding impacted operations earlier in the year.
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 Est. | 2025/26 Projected May | 2025/26 Projected June | 2025/26 Change from Previous Month | Change 2025/26-2024/25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 87.1 | 83.5 | 83.5 | 0.0 | -3.6 |
| Harvested (Million) | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.3 | 86.1 | 82.7 | 82.7 | 0.0 | -3.4 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 50.7 | 52.5 | 52.5 | 0.0 | 1.8 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 350 | 350 | 0 | 8 |
| Production | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,162 | 4,366 | 4,340 | 4,340 | 0 | -26 |
| Imports | 16 | 25 | 21 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 0 | -5 |
| Total Supply | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,447 | 4,734 | 4,710 | 4,710 | 0 | -24 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Crushing | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,285 | 2,420 | 2,490 | 2,490 | 0 | 70 |
| Exports | 2,152 | 1,980 | 1,695 | 1,850 | 1,815 | 1,815 | 0 | -35 |
| Seed and Residual | 107 | 113 | 124 | 114 | 110 | 110 | 0 | -4 |
| Total Use | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,105 | 4,384 | 4,415 | 4,415 | 0 | 31 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 274 | 264 | 342 | 350 | 295 | 295 | 0 | -55 |
| Foreign Stocks | 3,146 | 3,476 | 3,894 | 4,214 | 4,273 | 4,309 | 36 | 95 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Average Season Price ($/Bu) | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.40 | $9.95 | $10.25 | $10.25 | $0.00 | $0.30 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 6.14% | 6.13% | 8.33% | 7.98% | 6.68% | 6.68% | 0.00% | -$0.01 |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 4,564 | 15,683 | 6,866 | 13,470 | 15,585 | 6,924 | 4,604 |
| United States | 350 | 4,340 | 20 | 2,490 | 2,600 | 1,815 | 295 |
| Total Foreign | 4,214 | 11,343 | 6,846 | 10,980 | 12,985 | 5,109 | 4,309 |
| Argentina | 909 | 1,782 | 265 | 1,580 | 1,856 | 165 | 935 |
| Brazil | 1,229 | 6,430 | 6 | 2,131 | 2,289 | 4,115 | 1,260 |
| Paraguay | 16 | 404 | 1 | 114 | 121 | 283 | 17 |
| China | 1,653 | 772 | 4,115 | 3,968 | 4,887 | 4 | 1,649 |
| E.U. | 69 | 108 | 525 | 562 | 618 | 11 | 74 |
| S.E. Asia | 44 | 15 | 404 | 217 | 416 | 1 | 48 |
| Mexico | 31 | 10 | 257 | 257 | 261 | 0 | 37 |
| ROW | 263 | 1,821 | 1,273 | 2,150 | 2,538 | 529 | 290 |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) Current – Previous Month 2025/26
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 37 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 36 |
| United States | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Total Foreign | 38 | – | 1 | 4 | 4 | – | 36 |
| Argentina | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 5 |
| Paraguay | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| China | 37 | – | – | – | – | – | 37 |
| E.U. | -4 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 |
| S.E. Asia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | -1 | – | 1 | 5 | 4 | – | -3 |
Wheat
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
July 2025 wheat futures closed down 7 ¾ cents at $5.26 ½ with a trading range for the day of $5.26 to $5.37. September 2025 wheat futures closed down 7 ¼ cents for the day at $5.41 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $5.40 ¾ to $5.51 ½. Foreign stocks are down year-over-year while domestic stocks are up. Geopolitical uncertainty remains a potential market mover.
USDA Summary
The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised on minimally higher output as all wheat production is projected at 1,921 million bushels, up 115,000 bushels from last month as higher Soft Red Winter and White Winter production offset lower Hard Red Winter (HRW) production. The all wheat yield is virtually unchanged at 51.6 bushels per acre. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 825 million on strong early 2025/26 sales, especially for HRW. Projected 2025/26 ending stocks are lowered 25 million bushels to 898 million but are still 7 percent above last year. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price is $0.10 per bushel higher at $5.40 on the reduced stocks.
This month’s 2025/26 global wheat outlook is for reduced supplies, higher consumption and trade, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are projected down 44 million bushels to 39.411 billion, mainly on reduced beginning stocks for Russia more than offsetting higher production for the EU and India. EU production is raised to 5.019 billion on improved conditions in Spain compared to last year. India’s production is raised to a record 4.317 billion on the Government’s Third Advanced Estimate. Global consumption is raised 66 million bushels to 29.755 billion, mainly on higher food, seed, and industrial use for Nigeria, Sudan, and India. World trade is 48 million bushels higher at 7.874 billion on increased exports for the United States and the EU. Projected 2025/26 global ending stocks are lowered 110 million bushels to 9.656 billion on reductions for Russia, the United States, Iraq, and Turkey.
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 Est. | 2025/26 Projected May | 2025/26 Projected June | 2025/26 Change from Previous Month | Change 2025/26-2024/25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 46.7 | 45.8 | 49.6 | 46.1 | 45.4 | 45.4 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Harvested (Million) | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.1 | 38.5 | 37.2 | 37.2 | 0 | -1.3 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.7 | 51.2 | 51.6 | 51.6 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 845 | 674 | 570 | 696 | 841 | 841 | 0 | 145 |
| Production | 1,646 | 1,650 | 1,804 | 1,971 | 1,921 | 1,921 | 0 | -50 |
| Imports | 96 | 122 | 138 | 150 | 120 | 120 | 0 | -30 |
| Total Supply | 2,588 | 2,446 | 2,512 | 2,818 | 2,882 | 2,882 | 0 | 64 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Food | 971 | 972 | 961 | 975 | 977 | 977 | 0 | 2 |
| Seed | 58 | 68 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
| Feed | 88 | 74 | 85 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 0 | 0 |
| Exports | 796 | 762 | 707 | 820 | 800 | 825 | 25 | 5 |
| Total Use | 1,913 | 1,876 | 1,815 | 1,977 | 1,959 | 1,984 | 25 | 7 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 674 | 570 | 696 | 841 | 923 | 898 | -25 | 57 |
| Foreign Stocks | 9,345 | 9,550 | 9,186 | 8,858 | 8,841 | 8,757 | -84 | -101 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $7.63 | $8.83 | $6.96 | $5.50 | $5.30 | $5.40 | $0.10 | -$0.10 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 35.23% | 30.38% | 38.35% | 42.54% | 47.12% | 45.26% | -1.85% | 2.7% |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 9,700 | 29,711 | 7,750 | 5,725 | 29,755 | 7,875 | 9,655 |
| United States | 841 | 1,921 | 120 | 120 | 1,159 | 825 | 898 |
| Total Foreign | 8,858 | 27,790 | 7,631 | 5,605 | 28,596 | 7,050 | 8,757 |
| Argentina | 182 | 735 | 0 | 11 | 268 | 478 | 171 |
| Australia | 155 | 1,139 | 7 | 169 | 298 | 845 | 159 |
| Canada | 150 | 1,323 | 20 | 147 | 340 | 992 | 161 |
| EU | 454 | 5,017 | 349 | 1,709 | 4,079 | 1,268 | 474 |
| Russia | 371 | 3,050 | 11 | 588 | 1,433 | 1,653 | 345 |
| Ukraine | 55 | 845 | 4 | 73 | 243 | 606 | 55 |
| Bangladesh | 29 | 37 | 254 | 11 | 290 | 0 | 29 |
| Brazil | 69 | 294 | 246 | 18 | 445 | 99 | 65 |
| China | 4,688 | 5,218 | 220 | 1,213 | 5,512 | 37 | 4,578 |
| Japan | 40 | 40 | 200 | 26 | 228 | 11 | 42 |
| N. Africa | 391 | 645 | 1,185 | 50 | 1,710 | 78 | 433 |
| Nigeria | 25 | 5 | 235 | 0 | 228 | 15 | 22 |
| Sel. Mideast | 483 | 745 | 723 | 102 | 1,477 | 37 | 437 |
| SE Asia | 159 | 0 | 1,124 | 384 | 1,075 | 49 | 159 |
| India | 441 | 4,318 | 9 | 239 | 4,152 | 9 | 607 |
| Kazakhstan | 155 | 533 | 18 | 92 | 281 | 294 | 131 |
| UK | 103 | 470 | 110 | 265 | 570 | 22 | 92 |
| ROW | 908 | 3,376 | 2,913 | 509 | 5,969 | 557 | 796 |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) Current – Previous Month 2025/26
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -45 | 3 | 47 | 13 | 66 | 49 | -109 |
| United States | – | – | – | – | – | 25 | -25 |
| Total Foreign | -45 | 3 | 47 | 13 | 67 | 24 | -84 |
| Argentina | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Australia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Canada | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| EU | – | 20 | – | – | – | 18 | 2 |
| Russia | -55 | – | – | 18 | 18 | – | -73 |
| Ukraine | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Bangladesh | -5 | – | -4 | – | -4 | – | -5 |
| Brazil | 15 | – | – | – | – | – | 15 |
| China | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | 26 |
| Japan | -1 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 |
| N. Africa | -18 | 15 | -7 | – | -4 | – | -7 |
| Nigeria | – | – | 22 | – | 26 | – | -4 |
| Sel. Mideast | -2 | -7 | – | – | 4 | – | -13 |
| SE Asia | 2 | – | -7 | -6 | -6 | – | – |
| India | – | 19 | – | – | 18 | – | – |
| Kazakhstan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| UK | 4 | -7 | – | – | – | – | -4 |
| ROW | -10 | -36 | 43 | – | 13 | 6 | -21 |
Profitability Update
2025 Estimated Returns – Non-Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of June 12, 2025, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, non-irrigated yields are trendline average yields for Tennessee. Prices used for grain, oilseeds, and cotton are based on current Tennessee harvest cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2025 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Land cost was estimated as a cash rent at the USDA NASS state average for non-irrigated cropland of $117 per acre. Substantial variation in land costs exists in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2025 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on trendline yields, harvest prices, and expenses returns over specified costs for corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing a -$81, -$73, -$138, and -$111 per acre net returns, down from last month’s estimates. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will also vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield – Crop Production Report (Tennessee) | 1,150 | 50 | 175 | 80/40 |
| Current Harvest Price (as of 6/12/2025) | $0.68 | $10.16 | $4.21 | $5.06/$10.16 |
| Revenue | $782 | $508 | $737 | $811 |
| Variable Expenses | $598 | $315 | $535 | $545 |
| Returns Over Variable | $184 | $193 | $202 | $266 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $117 | $117 | $117 | $117 |
| Returns Over Variable and Land Costs | $67 | $76 | $85 | $149 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $205 | $149 | $166 | $260 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($138) | ($73) | ($81) | ($111) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.80 | $11.62 | $4.67 | $5.76/$11.53 |
2025 Estimated Returns – Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of June 12, 2025, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, irrigated yields were estimated as: 250 bushels per acre for corn, 65 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, 1,500 pounds per acre cotton, and 90 bushels of wheat and 60 bushels of soybeans for double crop wheat/soybeans. Prices used for grain and cotton sales are based on current Tennessee harvest cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2025 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Irrigation fixed costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and irrigation systems. Land cost was estimated as cash rent of $197/acre (USDA NASS state average for irrigated cropland in Tennessee). Substantial variation in land costs exists in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2025 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing returns of -$120, -$178, -$213, and -$207 per acre net returns, down from last month’s estimates. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Yield (lb or bu) | 1,500 | 65 | 250 | 90/60 |
| Current Harvest Price (as of 6/12/2025) | $0.68 | $10.16 | $4.21 | $5.06/$10.16 |
| Revenue | $1,020 | $660 | $1,053 | $1,065 |
| Variable Expenses (includes energy cost) | $710 | $381 | $700 | $720 |
| Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre | $100 | $100 | $100 | $100 |
| Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR Costs | $210 | $179 | $253 | $245 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $197 | $197 | $197 | $197 |
| Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed Cost and Land Costs | $13 | ($18) | $56 | $48 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $226 | $160 | $175 | $255 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($213) | ($178) | ($120) | ($207) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.82 | $12.89 | $4.69 | $7.07/$10.60 |