Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook
The following is a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based on 2018 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2023 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2023 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.
The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith.
April 10, 2025 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates
Corn
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
May 2025 wheat futures closed up 9 cents at $4.83 with a trading range for the day of $4.73 to $4.84. July 2025 wheat futures closed up 8 ¼ cents for the day at $4.88 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $4.79 ¾ to $4.90. Increased exports continue to shrink projected ending stocks; however tariffs and trade continue to provide a large amount of uncertainty for exports.
USDA Summary
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for greater exports, reduced feed and residual use, and smaller ending stocks. Feed and residual use is cut 25 million bushels to 5.8 billion based on disappearance during the December-February quarter as indicated in the March 31 Grain Stocks report. Exports are raised 100 million bushels reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date and relatively competitive U.S. prices. With no other use changes, ending stocks are down 75 million bushels from last month to 1.5 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast lower. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, virtually unchanged trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is raised, with increases for the EU, Tanzania, and Honduras partially offset by declines for Moldova, Cambodia, and Kenya. EU corn is higher reflecting larger crops for Poland, Croatia, France, and Germany that are partially offset by reductions for Romania and Bulgaria. Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include higher projected corn exports for the United States and a reduction for Pakistan. Corn imports are raised for the EU, Mexico, Turkey, and Peru but lowered for Vietnam. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher relative to last month, reflecting increases for South Korea and Pakistan. Global corn ending stocks, at 11.326 billion bushels, are down 51 million.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected March | 2024/25 Projected April | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 90.7 | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 90.6 | 90.6 | 0.0 | -4.0 |
| Harvested (Million) | 82.3 | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 82.9 | 82.9 | 0.0 | -3.6 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 171.4 | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 179.3 | 179.3 | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,919 | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,763 | 0 | 403 |
| Production | 14,111 | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,341 | 14,867 | 14,867 | 0 | -474 |
| Imports | 24 | 24 | 39 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 0 | -3 |
| Total Supply | 16,055 | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,729 | 16,655 | 16,655 | 0 | -74 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Feed and Residual | 5,607 | 5,671 | 5,486 | 5,805 | 5,775 | 5,750 | -25 | -55 |
| Ethanol | 5,028 | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,478 | 5,500 | 5,500 | 0 | 22 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 1,439 | 1,437 | 1,382 | 1,390 | 1,390 | 1,390 | 0 | 0 |
| Exports | 2,747 | 2,472 | 1,662 | 2,292 | 2,450 | 2,550 | 100 | 258 |
| Total Use | 14,821 | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,966 | 15,115 | 15,190 | 75 | 224 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,540 | 1,465 | -75 | -298 |
| Foreign Stocks | 10,294 | 10,858 | 10,638 | 10,611 | 9,835 | 9,859 | 24 | -752 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $4.53 | $6.00 | $6.54 | $4.55 | $4.35 | $4.35 | $0.00 | -$0.20 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 8.33% | 9.24% | 9.92% | 11.78% | 10.19% | 9.64% | -$0.01 | -2.14% |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024/25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 12,375 | 47,836 | 7,169 | 30,754 | 48,886 | 7,428 | 11,324 |
| United States | 1,763 | 14,867 | 25 | 5,750 | 12,640 | 2,550 | 1,465 |
| Total Foreign | 10,611 | 32,970 | 7,144 | 25,004 | 36,247 | 4,878 | 9,859 |
| Argentina | 106 | 1,968 | 0 | 394 | 563 | 1,417 | 94 |
| Brazil | 294 | 4,960 | 59 | 2,539 | 3,464 | 1,732 | 117 |
| Russia | 30 | 551 | 2 | 374 | 417 | 130 | 36 |
| South Africa | 33 | 630 | 0 | 272 | 543 | 67 | 52 |
| Ukraine | 42 | 1,055 | 1 | 165 | 203 | 866 | 29 |
| Egypt | 56 | 276 | 331 | 512 | 610 | 0 | 52 |
| E.U. | 288 | 2,335 | 787 | 2,272 | 3,047 | 98 | 265 |
| Japan | 51 | 1 | 602 | 472 | 604 | 0 | 50 |
| Mexico | 186 | 917 | 984 | 1,177 | 1,913 | 1 | 173 |
| Southeast Asia | 132 | 1,209 | 793 | 1,642 | 2,000 | 22 | 112 |
| South Korea | 80 | 4 | 453 | 368 | 455 | 0 | 82 |
| Canada | 79 | 604 | 87 | 378 | 606 | 87 | 76 |
| China | 8,318 | 11,610 | 315 | 9,094 | 12,322 | 1 | 7,920 |
| ROW | 916 | 6,848 | 2,729 | 5,345 | 9,498 | 457 | 800 |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels): Current-Previous Month 2024/25
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 15 | 37 | 70 | 70 | 102 | 91 | -51 |
| United States | – | – | – | -25 | -25 | 100 | -75 |
| Total Foreign | 15 | 37 | 71 | 95 | 127 | -9 | 24 |
| Argentina | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 4 |
| Brazil | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | 1 |
| Russia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| South Africa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ukraine | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Egypt | – | – | – | 8 | 4 | – | -4 |
| E.U. | 3 | 52 | 20 | 67 | 67 | – | 7 |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | – | – | 20 | 16 | 16 | – | 4 |
| Southeast Asia | – | -6 | -14 | -20 | -20 | – | – |
| South Korea | 4 | – | – | 2 | -4 | – | 8 |
| Canada | – | – | – | – | -4 | 4 | – |
| China | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | 4 | -9 | 45 | 22 | 68 | -13 | 4 |
Cotton
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
May 25 cotton futures closed down 0.16 cents at 66.47 with a trading range for the day of 66.18 to 67.62 cents. December 2025 cotton futures closed down 0.19 cents at 68.28 cents with a trading range for the day of 68.02 to 69.32 cents. Prior to the recent tariff escalation, cotton prices were showing signs of modest improvements. Tariff uncertainty for numerous U.S. cotton importers such as Vietnam and China have caused a tremendous amount of uncertainty for cotton prices.
USDA Summary
In this month’s 2024/25 U.S. cotton balance sheet, the only changes are a 100,000-bale reduction in exports to 10.9 million bales and an increase in ending stocks of the same amount to 5.0 million bales. The projected 2024/25 season average upland farm price is unchanged at 63 cents per pound.
Production, consumption, and trade are reduced in this month’s 2024/25 world cotton balance sheet while stocks are raised. Lower production in Argentina, Cote d’Ivoire, and other countries more than offsets an increase in China, for an overall decline of 69,000 bales. Global textile mill use is down 520,000 bales this month, primarily because of reductions for China and Indonesia that more than offset an increase for Turkey.
Similarly, imports are lower this month as reductions for China and Indonesia more than offset an increase for Turkey, with small changes elsewhere. Exports are reduced for Australia, Brazil, the United States, Cote d’Ivoire, and other countries, more than offsetting increases for Turkey and Kazakhstan. Beginning stocks are increased 25,000 bales following back year adjustments to imports, consumption, and ending stocks for Egypt. World ending stocks for 2024/25 are raised over 520,000 bales, with increases for China, Australia, Brazil, Egypt, and the United States that more than offset reductions for Turkey and Argentina, with largely offsetting changes elsewhere.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected March | 2024/25 Projected April | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 12.09 | 11.21 | 13.75 | 10.23 | 11.18 | 11.18 | 0 | 0.95 |
| Harvested (Million) | 8.22 | 10.26 | 7.29 | 6.44 | 8.27 | 8.27 | 0 | 1.83 |
| U.S. Average Yield (lb/acre) | 853 | 820 | 953 | 899 | 836 | 836 | 0 | -63 |
| Supply (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 7.25 | 3.15 | 4.6 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Production | 14.61 | 17.52 | 14.47 | 12.07 | 14.41 | 14.41 | 0 | 2.34 |
| Imports | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.01 |
| Total Supply | 21.86 | 20.68 | 19.07 | 16.72 | 17.57 | 17.57 | 0 | 0.85 |
| Use and Stocks (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Domestic | 2.4 | 2.55 | 2.05 | 1.85 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0 | -0.15 |
| Exports | 16.35 | 14.48 | 12.45 | 11.75 | 11 | 10.9 | -0.1 | -0.85 |
| Total Use | 18.75 | 17.03 | 14.5 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 12.6 | -0.1 | -1 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 3.15 | 4.05 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 4.9 | 5 | 0.1 | 1.85 |
| Foreign Stocks | 83.15 | 72.27 | 71.25 | 70.59 | 73.43 | 73.86 | 0.43 | 3.27 |
| Chinese Stocks | 37.79 | 38.06 | 33.36 | 36.72 | 37.67 | 38.12 | 0.45 | 1.4 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/lb) | $0.663 | $0.914 | $0.848 | $0.761 | $0.630 | $0.630 | $0.00 | -$0.13 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 16.8% | 24% | 32% | 23% | 39% | 40% | 1.10% | 16.52% |
| Chinese Stocks/Use | 95.7% | 115.3% | 88.5% | 94.4% | 100.5% | 103.0% | 2.57% | 8.63% |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) 2024/25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 73.74 | 120.89 | 42.36 | 116.02 | 42.33 | -0.22 | 78.86 |
| United States | 3.15 | 14.41 | 0.01 | 1.7 | 10.9 | -0.03 | 5 |
| Total Foreign | 70.59 | 106.48 | 42.36 | 114.32 | 31.43 | -0.19 | 73.86 |
| Central Asia | 3.2 | 5.14 | 0.1 | 4.07 | 1.46 | 0 | 2.91 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | 1.29 | 4.61 | 0 | 0.1 | 4.4 | 0 | 1.41 |
| Australia | 4.2 | 5.4 | 0 | 0.01 | 5.3 | -0.19 | 4.48 |
| Brazil | 3.11 | 17 | 0.01 | 3.3 | 12.9 | 0 | 3.92 |
| India | 9.3 | 25 | 2.6 | 25.5 | 1.4 | 0 | 10 |
| Mexico | 0.24 | 0.83 | 0.65 | 1.35 | 0.15 | 0 | 0.22 |
| China | 36.72 | 32 | 6.5 | 37 | 0.1 | 0 | 38.12 |
| E.U. | 0.26 | 1.21 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 1.17 | 0 | 0.27 |
| Turkey | 1.41 | 4 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 1.2 | 0 | 1.41 |
| Pakistan | 1.85 | 5 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 0.05 | 0 | 2 |
| Indonesia | 0.4 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.02 | 0 | 0.38 |
| Thailand | 0.09 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 |
| Bangladesh | 1.71 | 0.15 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 0 | 0 | 1.76 |
| Vietnam | 1.03 | 0 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 0 | 0 | 1.04 |
| ROW | 5.78 | 6.14 | 4.23 | 6.99 | 3.28 | 0.00 | 5.86 |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales): 2024/25 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 0.03 | -0.07 | -0.33 | -0.52 | -0.38 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| United States | – | – | – | – | -0.1 | – | 0.1 |
| Total Foreign | 0.03 | -0.07 | -0.32 | -0.52 | -0.28 | – | 0.43 |
| Central Asia | – | – | – | – | 0.05 | – | -0.05 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | – | -0.1 | – | – | -0.18 | – | 0.08 |
| Australia | – | – | – | – | -0.1 | – | 0.1 |
| Brazil | – | – | – | – | -0.1 | – | 0.1 |
| India | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | – | – | -0.05 | -0.05 | – | – | – |
| China | – | 0.25 | -0.3 | -0.5 | – | – | 0.45 |
| E.U. | – | -0.05 | – | – | -0.03 | – | -0.02 |
| Turkey | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | – | -0.2 |
| Pakistan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Indonesia | – | – | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.01 | – | -0.01 |
| Thailand | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Bangladesh | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Vietnam | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | 0.03 | -0.17 | 0.02 | 0.03 | -0.13 | – | -0.02 |
Soybeans
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
May 2025 soybean futures were up 16 ¼ cents for the day closing at $10.29 with a trading range for the day of $10.10 ¾ to $10.29 ½. November 2025 soybean futures closed up 8 ¾ cents at $10.04 ½ with a trading range for the day of $9.94 ½ to $10.09 ½. Soybean prices dropped 40-70 cents after the escalation in tariffs. The immediate and long-term beneficiary of the China-U.S. trade war escalation, for soybeans, is Brazil.
USDA Summary
The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2024/25 includes higher imports and crush, and lower ending stocks. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 4.42 billion on higher soybean meal domestic use and soybean oil exports. Soybean oil exports are increased based on export commitments. Soybean oil for biofuel is lowered based on pace to date. However, stronger use is forecast for the last part of the marketing year due to tariffs impacting imports of other biofuel feedstocks, like used cooking oil. With soybean exports unchanged and imports increased slightly, soybean ending stocks are lowered 5 million bushels to 375 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $9.95 per bushel. The soybean meal price is lowered $10 to $300 per short ton and the soybean oil price is raised 2 cents to 45 cents per pound.
Global 2024/25 soybean supply and demand forecasts include higher beginning stocks, lower production, and higher exports, crush, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised 99 million bushels mainly on a revised 2023/24 crop for Brazil. After a review of 2024 disappearance data, Brazil’s 2023/24 production is raised 55 million bushels to 5.677 billion.
Global soybean production for 2024/25 is lowered 7 million bushels on lower production for Bolivia partly offset by higher output for South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, and the European Union. Global soybean crush is raised 73 million bushels to 13.037 billion on higher crush for Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and the United States. Ample global soybean meal supplies, lower prices, and lower supply of alternative oilseed meals, led to increased use of soybean meal consumption globally.
Global soybean exports are raised 7 million bushels to 6.691 billion. Exports are raised for Canada and Nigeria but lowered for Ukraine. Global soybean ending stocks are raised 40 million bushels to 4.501 billion, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil and the EU.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected March | 2024/25 Projected April | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 83.4 | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 87.1 | 87.1 | 0.0 | 3.5 |
| Harvested (Million) | 82.6 | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.3 | 86.1 | 86.1 | 0.0 | 3.8 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 51.0 | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 50.7 | 50.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 525 | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 342 | 0 | 78 |
| Production | 4,216 | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,162 | 4,366 | 4,366 | 0 | 204 |
| Imports | 20 | 16 | 25 | 21 | 20 | 25 | 5 | 4 |
| Total Supply | 4,761 | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,447 | 4,729 | 4,734 | 5 | 287 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Crushing | 2,141 | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,285 | 2,410 | 2,420 | 10 | 135 |
| Exports | 2,266 | 2,152 | 1,980 | 1,695 | 1,825 | 1,825 | 0 | 130 |
| Seed and Residual | 97 | 107 | 113 | 124 | 114 | 114 | 0 | -10 |
| Total Use | 4,504 | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,105 | 4,349 | 4,359 | 10 | 254 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 380 | 375 | -5 | 33 |
| Foreign Stocks | 3,430 | 3,146 | 3,476 | 3,893 | 4,081 | 4,125 | 44 | 232 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Average Season Price ($/Bu) | $10.80 | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.40 | $9.95 | $9.95 | $0.00 | -$2.45 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 5.71% | 6.14% | 6.13% | 8.33% | 8.74% | 8.60% | -0.13% | 0.27% |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024/2025 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 4,235 | 15,454 | 6,592 | 13,038 | 15,090 | 6,692 | 4,500 |
| United States | 342 | 4,367 | 25 | 2,420 | 2,534 | 1,825 | 375 |
| Total Foreign | 3,893 | 11,087 | 6,567 | 10,618 | 12,556 | 4,867 | 4,125 |
| Argentina | 884 | 1,800 | 228 | 1,565 | 1,841 | 165 | 906 |
| Brazil | 1,093 | 6,210 | 6 | 2,094 | 2,245 | 3,876 | 1,187 |
| Paraguay | 11 | 393 | 1 | 114 | 121 | 268 | 16 |
| China | 1,591 | 759 | 4,005 | 3,858 | 4,736 | 4 | 1,615 |
| E.U. | 47 | 107 | 536 | 551 | 607 | 11 | 73 |
| S.E. Asia | 30 | 17 | 381 | 188 | 383 | 0 | 45 |
| Mexico | 22 | 10 | 246 | 244 | 247 | 0 | 32 |
| ROW | 214 | 1,791 | 1,164 | 2,003 | 2,376 | 541 | 252 |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2024/2025 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 100 | -7 | 8 | 73 | 55 | 6 | 39 |
| United States | – | – | 5 | 10 | 10 | – | -5 |
| Total Foreign | 100 | -7 | 3 | 63 | 46 | 6 | 44 |
| Argentina | – | – | 7 | 22 | 18 | – | -11 |
| Brazil | 66 | – | – | 37 | 37 | – | 29 |
| Paraguay | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| China | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| E.U. | 6 | 3 | – | -7 | -17 | – | 25 |
| S.E. Asia | – | – | 3 | – | 3 | – | -1 |
| Mexico | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | 12 |
| ROW | 16 | -9 | -8 | 12 | 4 | 6 | -11 |
Wheat
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
USDA Summary
This month’s supply and demand outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, slightly smaller domestic use, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are raised on higher projected imports, up 10 million bushels to 150 million, with increases for Hard Red Spring (HRS), Durum, White, and Hard Red Winter (HRW). At this level, imports would be the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use, based primarily on the March NASS Prospective Plantings report. Feed and residual use is unchanged at 120 million bushels, but there are offsetting by-class revisions based on the March 31 NASS Grain Stocks report. Exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million with reductions to HRS and HRW. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 27 million bushels to 846 million, 22 percent above the previous year. The season average farm price is unchanged at $5.50 per bushel.
The 2024/25 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller supplies, consumption, and exports and larger ending stocks. Supplies are lowered 29 million bushels to 39.165 million primarily on reduced production estimates for Saudi Arabia and the EU, as well as lower beginning stock estimates for Uzbekistan and Israel. World consumption is forecast 51 million bushels lower to 29.586 million, primarily on lower food, seed, and industrial use for India and China. Projected 2024/25 global trade is cut 48 million bushels to 7.599 billion, mostly on lower export forecasts for Russia, Australia, and the EU that are only partly offset by increases for Canada and Ukraine. Exports for 2024/25 are expected to be 7 percent lower than the previous year. Projected 2024/25 world ending stocks are increased 22 million bushels to 9.579 billion as higher stocks for India, Russia, the United States, and the EU are partly offset by a decrease for China. Global stocks for 2024/25 are now three percent below the previous year and the lowest since 2015/16.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected March | 2024/25 Projected April | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 44.5 | 46.7 | 45.8 | 49.6 | 46.1 | 46.1 | 0 | -3.5 |
| Harvested (Million) | 36.8 | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.1 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 0 | 1.4 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 49.7 | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.7 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,028 | 845 | 674 | 570 | 696 | 696 | 0 | 126 |
| Production | 1,828 | 1,646 | 1,650 | 1,804 | 1,971 | 1,971 | 0 | 167 |
| Imports | 100 | 96 | 122 | 138 | 140 | 150 | 10 | 12 |
| Total Supply | 2,956 | 2,588 | 2,446 | 2,512 | 2,808 | 2,818 | 10 | 306 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Food | 961 | 971 | 972 | 961 | 970 | 970 | 0 | 9 |
| Seed | 64 | 58 | 68 | 62 | 64 | 62 | -2 | 0 |
| Feed | 93 | 88 | 74 | 85 | 120 | 120 | 0 | 35 |
| Exports | 994 | 796 | 762 | 707 | 835 | 820 | -15 | 113 |
| Total Use | 2,111 | 1,913 | 1,876 | 1,815 | 1,989 | 1,972 | -17 | 157 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 845 | 674 | 570 | 696 | 819 | 846 | 27 | 150 |
| Foreign Stocks | 9,676 | 9,345 | 9,550 | 9,190 | 8,737 | 8,733 | -4 | -457 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $5.05 | $7.63 | $8.83 | $6.96 | $5.50 | $5.50 | $0.00 | -$1.46 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 40.03% | 35.23% | 30.38% | 38.35% | 41.18% | 42.90% | 1.72% | 4.55% |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024-25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 9,886 | 29,279 | 7,306 | 5,680 | 29,586 | 7,599 | 9,579 |
| United States | 696 | 1,971 | 150 | 120 | 1,152 | 820 | 846 |
| Total Foreign | 9,190 | 27,308 | 7,156 | 5,560 | 28,434 | 6,779 | 8,733 |
| Argentina | 167 | 681 | 0 | 9 | 263 | 423 | 163 |
| Australia | 107 | 1,253 | 7 | 165 | 294 | 937 | 137 |
| Canada | 168 | 1,285 | 20 | 158 | 349 | 974 | 150 |
| European Union | 581 | 4,447 | 393 | 1,672 | 4,033 | 974 | 415 |
| Russia | 430 | 2,998 | 11 | 570 | 1,405 | 1,617 | 417 |
| Ukraine | 26 | 860 | 3 | 73 | 246 | 588 | 55 |
| Bangladesh | 40 | 40 | 246 | 9 | 288 | 0 | 38 |
| Brazil | 62 | 290 | 239 | 22 | 445 | 92 | 54 |
| China | 4,942 | 5,148 | 129 | 1,213 | 5,512 | 37 | 4,670 |
| Japan | 40 | 40 | 198 | 24 | 226 | 11 | 41 |
| N. Africa | 410 | 589 | 1,213 | 50 | 1,709 | 90 | 413 |
| Nigeria | 16 | 4 | 213 | 0 | 187 | 14 | 32 |
| Sel. Mideast | 451 | 811 | 647 | 107 | 1,467 | 26 | 416 |
| Southeast Asia | 164 | 0 | 1,105 | 378 | 1,065 | 47 | 157 |
| India | 276 | 4,163 | 7 | 220 | 4,051 | 9 | 386 |
| Kazakhstan | 127 | 683 | 18 | 118 | 305 | 367 | 155 |
| United Kingdom | 120 | 406 | 140 | 251 | 552 | 18 | 96 |
| ROW | 1,064 | 3,610 | 2,566 | 520 | 6,038 | 557 | 937 |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2024/2025 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -16 | -14 | -142 | -10 | -53 | -46 | 23 |
| United States | – | – | 10 | – | -2 | -15 | 27 |
| Total Foreign | -17 | -14 | -152 | -10 | -51 | -31 | -4 |
| Argentina | – | 1 | – | – | 4 | – | -2 |
| Australia | – | – | – | – | – | -18 | 18 |
| Canada | – | – | – | – | – | 18 | -18 |
| European Union | 10 | -10 | 7 | – | – | -18 | 26 |
| Russia | – | – | – | – | – | -37 | 37 |
| Ukraine | – | – | – | -11 | -11 | 18 | -7 |
| Bangladesh | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | – | – | – | 4 | 7 | -7 | – |
| China | – | – | -110 | – | -37 | – | -73 |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| N. Africa | – | 1 | 11 | -4 | -15 | 11 | 16 |
| Nigeria | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sel. Mideast | -10 | -12 | -7 | 3 | -11 | – | -18 |
| Southeast Asia | – | – | -26 | -7 | -15 | – | -11 |
| India | – | – | – | – | -73 | – | 73 |
| Kazakhstan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| United Kingdom | – | – | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | – |
| ROW | -16 | 6 | -30 | – | 95 | 3 | -43 |
Profitability Update
2024 Estimated Returns – Non-Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of April 10, 2025, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, non-irrigated yields are average yields for Tennessee from the USDA Crop Production Report. Prices used for grain, oilseeds, and cotton are based on current Tennessee cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2024 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Land cost was estimated as a cash rent at the USDA NASS state average for non-irrigated cropland of $117 per acre. Substantial variation in land costs exists in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2024 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses returns over specified costs for corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing a -$77, -$212, -$170, and -$206 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will also vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield – Crop Production Report (Tennessee) | 1,066 | 42 | 152 | 75/40 |
| Current Price (as of 4/10/2025) | $0.68 | $9.80 | $4.82 | $5.05/$9.80 |
| Revenue | $725 | $412 | $733 | $771 |
| Variable Expenses | $610 | $305 | $520 | $590 |
| Returns Over Variable | $115 | $107 | $213 | $181 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $117 | $117 | $117 | $117 |
| Returns Over Variable and Land Costs | ($2) | ($10) | $96 | $64 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $210 | $160 | $173 | $270 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($212) | ($170) | ($77) | ($206) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.88 | $13.86 | $5.33 | $6.43/$12.21 |
2024 Estimated Returns – Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of April 10, 2025, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, irrigated yields were estimated as: 240 bushels per acre for corn, 65 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, 1,450 pounds per acre cotton, and 85 bushels of wheat and 60 bushels of soybeans for double crop wheat/soybeans. Prices used for grain and cotton sales are based on current Tennessee harvest cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2024 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Irrigation fixed costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and irrigation systems. Land cost was estimated as cash rent of $197/acre (USDA NASS state average for irrigated cropland in Tennessee). Substantial variation in land costs exists in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2024 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing returns of -$41, -$271, -$203, and -$255 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Yield (lb or bu) | 1,450 | 65 | 240 | 85/60 |
| Current Price (as of 4/10/2025) | $0.68 | $9.80 | $4.82 | $5.05/$9.80 |
| Revenue | $986 | $637 | $1,157 | $1,017 |
| Variable Expenses (includes energy cost) | $735 | $380 | $720 | $720 |
| Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre | $100 | $100 | $100 | $100 |
| Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR Costs | $151 | $157 | $337 | $197 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $197 | $197 | $197 | $197 |
| Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed Cost and Land Costs | ($46) | ($40) | $140 | $0 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $225 | $163 | $181 | $255 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($271) | ($203) | ($41) | ($255) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.87 | $12.92 | $4.99 | $7.48/$10.60 |