Crop Comments

by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist

June 5, 2026

Overview

Corn, Soybeans, Cotton, and Wheat down for the week

We’ve seen another wave of heavy selling across the grain complex, and it really hasn’t slowed much towards the end of the week. The tone remains weak, and liquidation pressure is still very evident across corn, beans, and wheat. At the same time, markets are becoming technically oversold, which increases the likelihood that we could see a bounce at some point. The challenge right now isn’t whether a bounce happens, but where it begins and how long it can last in an environment that is still firmly trending lower. December corn futures continue to decline, reflecting market behavior that appears to price in the expectation of a near‑optimal crop outcome, despite the production season still being in its early stages in June. Key support levels sit near $4.45, then down into the $4.40–$4.42 range, with the contract low near $4.39 acting as a major line in the sand. While a bounce of 15 to 25 cents wouldn’t be surprising given how oversold the market is, rallies at this point still look more like opportunities to sell rather than the start of a sustained recovery. Because of that, strategies with defined risk, like options, are worth considering. Soybeans have also started to follow the pressure seen in corn and wheat. November soybeans tested that $11.40 level a lot of folks have been watching. We did dip below it briefly, but the market has managed to steady itself for now. If we can’t hold that area, though, there really isn’t much support until closer to $11.10, which could open the door for another leg lower. The way this market feels right now, any bounce we get is likely to be temporary and could run into selling pressure again unless something changes on the fundamental side, like a weather issue or a pickup in export demand, especially from China. Wheat is starting to look a little different compared to the rest of the grains. Selling pressure has slowed down, and the market is trying to hold support in that $5.75 to $5.77 range. That gives this market a more balanced feel in the short term, where we could start to see some short covering and maybe a little buying interest step in. If we do get a bounce going, a move up toward $5.96 to $6.00 is possible. That said, if wheat can’t hold this support area, it likely puts us right back into a downward move pretty quickly.

Overall, the key theme across the grain markets is that while conditions are oversold and a relief bounce is likely, the broader trend remains lower for now. This appears to be driven as much by liquidation and fund positioning as by fundamentals. Producers should be prepared for short-term rallies but understand that those rallies may still present opportunities rather than a true change in trend. Weather and demand developments will ultimately be the factors that determine whether the market can shift direction in a more meaningful way.

Below are summaries of USDA reports this week and a welcomed fuel update! Wishing everyone a great weekend!

Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks

The latest USDA fats and oils report points to mixed but generally supportive conditions in oilseed markets. Soybean crush in April 2026 totaled 6.55 million tons (218 million bushels), down from March but still above year-ago levels, signaling steady demand despite some seasonal slowdown. Crude soybean oil production followed a similar pattern, declining 6% from the previous month while remaining 5% higher than last year, and refined soybean oil production dropped slightly month-over-month but was up 11% year-over-year, reinforcing the picture of strengthening longer-term demand. Soybean meal production, a key driver for livestock feed markets, remained strong at 4.85 million tons, which continues to support soybean value through feed demand channels. Meanwhile, cottonseed oil production showed notable strength, with refined output reaching 28.2 million pounds, up 24% from March and 14% above a year ago, indicating improved processing activity and demand for cotton byproducts. It is important to note that this report does not include corn data, as it focuses on oilseed crushing and fats and oils markets; however, the trends observed in soybean and cottonseed demand can still influence broader row crop profitability across Tennessee through input competition and rotational decisions.

Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production

For Tennessee producers, the latest USDA grain crushings report shows slightly softer but still steady corn demand heading into late spring. Corn use totaled 478 million bushels in April 2026, down 9% from March but still 1% above last year, indicating that overall demand remains stable despite a seasonal slowdown. The ethanol sector continues to dominate usage, with about 92% of corn going into alcohol production, including 428 million bushels for fuel ethanol, which declined from the previous month but held near year-ago levels. One bright spot was corn used for beverage alcohol, which increased both month-over-month and year-over-year, although it remains a relatively small portion of total demand. On the co-product side, distillers dried grains (DDGS) production fell 10% from March and was slightly below last year, which could have some impact on feed availability and pricing moving forward.  Overall, the report suggests that while corn use has eased from earlier in the year, demand, especially from ethanol, remains relatively strong and continues to provide underlying support to the market

Fuel

Fuel prices across Tennessee have shown a clear downward trend in recent weeks, though they remain significantly higher than a year ago. The current average price for regular gasoline is $3.82 per gallon, down slightly from $3.85 yesterday and notably lower than $4.02 a week ago and $4.13 a month ago. Similar patterns are evident across other fuel types: mid-grade averages $4.29, premium stands at $4.70, and diesel is at $4.98, each declining modestly from both the previous day and the prior week and month. Diesel, in particular, has dropped from $5.24 just one month ago. Despite these recent decreases, all fuel categories remain well above year-ago levels, when regular gas averaged $2.73 and diesel was just $3.24 per gallon. Overall, the data suggests easing fuel costs in the short term, but continued elevated prices compared to the previous year.

Fuel	Regular	Mid-Grade	Premium	Diesel
Current Avg.	$3.82	$4.29	$4.70	$4.98
Yesterday Avg.	$3.85	$4.31	$4.72	$4.99
Week Ago Avg.	$4.02	$4.48	$4.89	$5.10
Month Ago Avg.	$4.13	$4.59	$4.99	$5.24
Year Ago Avg.	$2.73	$3.18	$3.58	$3.24

	Previous	Current	Change
USD Index	98.88	100.06	1.18
Crude Oil	87.71	79.41	-8.30
DJIA	51037	50879	-158

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 35 cents under to 21 cents over, with an average of even basis with the July futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending May 29th was 1.108 million barrels, up 19,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 24.606 million barrels, down 362,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.00 to $4.73 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.27, which is down 29 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 corn futures traded between $4.25 and $4.58.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 69% good-to-excellent and 4% poor-to-very poor; corn emerged to be 76% compared to 60% last week, 76% year, and a 5-year average of 74%; corn planted to be 86% compared to 76% last week, 86% last year, and a 5-year average of 83%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 57% good-to-excellent and 8% poor-to-very poor; corn emerged to be 94% compared to 92% last week, 81% last year, and a 5-year average of 85%; corn planted to be 98% compared to 97% last week, 90% last year, and a 5-year average of 95%. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.00 to $4.73 at elevators and barge points. For the week of May 22-28, 2026, there were net sales 883,300 MT for 2025/2026 were down 13% from the previous week and 32% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 243,700 MT for 2026/2027 primarily for Costa Rica (117,400 MT), unknown destinations (70,600 MT), Japan (62,000 MT), and Honduras (12,000 MT), were offset by reductions for Panama (21,000 MT). Exports of 1,723,700 MT were up 7% from the previous week and 2% from the prior 4-week average. December corn futures closed at $4.45, down 30 cents from last week.

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis weakened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 35 under to 21 over the July futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of even. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $11.90 to $12.14. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.22, down 59 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $11.17 and $11.88.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 67% good-to-excellent and 5% poor-to-very poor; soybean emerged to be 65% compared to 49% last week, 61% last year, and a 5-year average of 57%; soybean planted to be 87% compared to 79% last week, 83% last year, and a 5-year average of 80%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 63% good-to-excellent compared to 7% poor-to-very poor; emerged to be 78% compared to 71% last week, 52% last year, and a 5-year average of 51%; soybean planted to be 86% compared to 84% last week, 64% last year, and a 5-year average of 66%. For the week of May 22-28, 2026, there were net sales of 276,900 MT for 2025/2026 were down 8% from the previous week, but up 24% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 243,000 MT for 2026/2027 were reported for unknown destinations (132,000 MT), Costa Rica (68,000 MT), Mexico (40,000 MT), and Indonesia (3,000 MT). Exports of 569,300 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but down 1% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (208,800 MT), Egypt (110,900 MT), Mexico (108,200 MT), Indonesia (67,200 MT), and Japan (16,000 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.37, down 53 cents compared to last week.

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for June 4th were noticeably down compared to last week. Prices were 71.89 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 76.64 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both down 1.88 cents compared to last week’s prices.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton planted to be 66% compared to 53% last week, 64% last year, and a 5-year average of 67%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton planted to be 93% compared to 87% last week, 79% last year, and a 5-year average of 86%. For the week May 22-28, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland totaling 185,300 RB for 2025/2026 were up 21% from the previous week and 62% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 77,100 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for Mexico (24,000 RB), Indonesia (14,100 RB), Pakistan (12,300 RB), Vietnam (10,600 RB), and Thailand (7,700 RB). Exports of 268,800 RB were down 15% from the previous week and 12% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (79,100 RB), Turkey (48,200 RB), Pakistan (41,700 RB), China (26,200 RB), and Bangladesh (22,200 RB). For the week, December 2026 cotton futures closed at 77.48 cents, down 2.11 cents compared to last week. March 2027 cotton futures closed at 78.8 cents, down 1.92 cents compared to last week.

Wheat

Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.32 to $6.03.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated spring wheat emerged to be 72% compared to 56% last week, 71% last year, and a 5-year average of 67%; spring wheat planted to be 94% compared to 86% last week, 94% last year, and a 5-year average of 89%. The report estimated winter wheat headed to be 87% compared to 78% last week, 82% last year, and a 5-year average of 79%. For the week of May 22-28, 2026, net sales of 807,300 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 (a marketing-year low) were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Net sales 838,500 MT for 2026/2027 primarily for South Korea (202,100 MT), the Philippines (156,000 MT), unknown destinations (154,300 MT), Mexico (105,300 MT), and Japan (103,600 MT), were offset by reductions for Thailand (46,000 MT). Exports of 397,200 MT were up 33% from the previous week and 10% from the prior 4-week average. 

Additional Information

Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news

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