by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
October 30, 2026
Overview
Corn, Soybean, Cotton and Wheat down for the week.
Fuel
Fuel prices are slowly easing lower. This slight softening of prices will not win any awards and pundits will continue to blame President Trump as will the general public. It is extremely easy to Monday morning quarterback from the recliner in a person’s living room, but when it comes to decision making most people do not know what they would really do. A large percentage of those who “know exactly what they would do” would make extremely poor and uneducated decisions. Moving off the soap box, lower fuel prices are welcome in any form for most people. Thus, the $0.25 per gallon decline in gas and $0.16 per gallon decline in diesel compared to one month ago will be noticeable in the wallet.
| Fuel | Regular | Mid-Grade | Premium | Diesel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Avg. | $3.75 | $4.21 | $4.62 | $5.95 |
| Yesterday Avg. | $3.77 | $4.23 | $4.64 | $5.96 |
| Week Ago Avg. | $3.84 | $4.32 | $4.72 | $5.97 |
| Month Ago Avg. | $4.00 | $4.45 | $4.86 | $6.11 |
| Year Ago Avg. | $2.66 | $3.15 | $3.54 | $3.39 |
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 101.80 | 101.90 | 0.10 |
| Crude Oil | 103.13 | 104.09 | 0.96 |
| DJIA | 52290 | 51600 | -690 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) decreased 4 cents from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 35 cents under to 9 cents over, with an average of 17 cents under the December futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending October 23rd was 1.118 million barrels per day, up 24,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 24,523 million barrels, down 35,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.16 to $4.64 at elevators and barge points.On Friday, December 2026 corn futures closed at $4.48, down 8 cents compared to last week. For the week, December 2026 corn futures traded between $4.48 and $4.56.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 56% good-to-excellent (no change from last week) and 18% poor-to-very poor (up 1% from last week); corn harvested to be 60% compared to 44% last week, NA last year, and a 5-year average of 66%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 81% good-to-excellent (no change from last week) and 4% poor-to-very poor (no change from last week); corn harvested to be 98% compared to 96% last week, NA last year, and a 5-year average of 90%. For the week of October 16-October 22, 2026, net sales of 1,303,900 MT for 2026/2027 were down 15 percent from the previous week, but up 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for unknown destinations (411,800 MT), Mexico (318,900 MT), Japan (251,000 MT), South Korea (124,900 MT), and Colombia (55,000 MT). Exports of 552,900 MT were down 29 percent from the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis decreased 9 cents compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 39 under to 36 over with the November futures contract, with an average basis of 7 cents under at the end of the week. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $11.82 to $12.78. November 2026 soybean futures closed at $12.22, down 35 cents compared to last week. For the week, November 2026 soybean futures traded between $12.13 and $12.51.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean harvested to be 79% compared to 64% last week, NA last year, and a 5-year average of 77%. In Tennessee, soybeans harvested to be 81% compared to 75% last week, NA last year, and a 5-year average of 62%. For the week of October 16-October 22, 2026, net sales of 2,576,400 MT for 2026/2027 were down 9 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (1,627,000 MT), Spain (225,000 MT), unknown destinations (153,300 MT), Vietnam (123,100 MT), and Pakistan (120,000 MT). Exports of 2,384,100 MT were up 18 percent from the previous week and 72 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for October 29th were down compared to last week. Prices were 80.50 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 76.25 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made 31-3-35 down 2.29 cents and 41-4-34 down 2.79 cents compared to last week’s prices.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 33% good-to-excellent (down 2% from last week) and 37% poor-to-very poor (no change from last week); cotton harvested to be 52% compared to 41% last week, NA% last year, and a 5-year average of 45%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 57% good-to-excellent (down 11% from last week) and 15% poor-to-very poor (up 7% from last week); cotton harvested to be 67% compared to 46% last week, NA% last year, and a 5-year average of 50%. For the week October 16-October 22, 2026, net sales of Upland totaling 216,500 RB for 2026/2027 were up 8 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for China (52,100 RB), Turkey (40,800 RB), Vietnam (35,000 RB), Indonesia (26,400 RB), and Mexico (21,400 RB). Net sales of 38,300 RB for 2027/2028 were reported for Indonesia (17,000 RB), Honduras (8,000 RB), China (5,300 RB), Vietnam (4,400 RB), and Mexico (3,600 RB). Exports of 160,800 RB were down 18 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. On Thursday, December 2026 cotton futures settled at 78.50 cents, down 2.29 cents compared to last week. December 2027 cotton futures settled at 77.76 cents, down 1.61 cents compared to last week.
Wheat
Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.29 to $5.46. July 2027 wheat futures closed at $6.30, down 17 cents compared to last week.
prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.54 to $5.85. July 2027 wheat futures closed at $6.47, down 36 cents compared to last week.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat planted to be 76% compared to 63% last week, NA last year, and a 5-year average of 77%. For the week of October 16-October 22, net sales of 849,800 metric tons (MT) for 2026/2027–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for the Philippines (226,300 MT), South Korea (154,000 MT), Indonesia (140,000 MT), Vietnam (100,700 MT), and Mexico (93,300 MT). Total net sales of 22,000 MT for 2027/2028 were for Peru. Exports of 266,000 MT were up 11 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at agriff14@utk.edu.