Crop Comments

by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist

August 29, 2025

Overview

Corn and wheat were up; soybeans were unchanged; and cotton was down for the week.

The “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade; August 2025” report was released on Thursday. In year’s past, the report would normally have some commentary regarding the plethora of data for the US and our trade partners. The report this go round did not have any commentary, thus, I dug around in the tables. The tables forecast value and volume of commodities in the international trade market for fiscal year 2025. Export value for wheat was adjusted up to $5.8 billion ($200 million increase from the May report), which is driven by the increased volume adjustment of .8 million MT from May to 22.4 million MT in the latest report. Corn export value also increased up by $1.2 billion from May forecasts to $15.7 billion. This adjustment up was driven by a 5.3 million MT up form May’s estimate to 71.3 million MT. Soybean value remained unchanged from the May estimate and held at $21.5 billion, but the volume increased .7 million MT to 51 million MT, thus reflecting an expected decrease in $/bushel. Cotton value was adjusted up by $500 million form May estimates to $4.8 billion, while cotton export volume increased 8%.

An interesting note in the report came from the expected import of cattle numbers. The US national beef supply chain is currently tight on feeder cattle supplies from domestic production. Thus, feed yards would historically look to our trade partners from the North (Canada) and South (Mexico) to get feeder cattle. But currently, the US has a ban on livestock from Mexico due to the New World Screwworm outbreak. Thus, the US is expected to import 1.2 million head in the fiscal year of 2025, which makes imports of live cattle down approximately 50% compared to 2024, and 2026 is projected to be 700,000 head. Nationally, this equates to fewer head of cattle on feed, which lowers feed grain demand from feed yard, which could have ripple impacts on prices across markets. This could be something to watch the rest of the year and into next.

Indicator	Previous	Current	Change
USD Index	97.70	97.84	0.14
Crude Oil	63.80	63.98	0.18
DJIA	45646	45544	-102

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) remained unchanged or slightly decreased at West, Northwest, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points and weakened at North-Central elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 6 cents below to 13 over, with an average of 3 over the September futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending August 22 was 1.070 million barrels per day, down 2,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 22,549 million barrels, down 139,000 barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for August 15-21 were net sales reductions of 700,755 bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and the 2025/26 marketing year had net sales of 82,267,832 million bushels (down 30,32 million bushels compared to last week). Exports for the same period were up 12% compared to last week at 45.2 million bushels. Cash prices ranged from $3.81 to $3.99 at elevators and barge points. September 2025 corn futures closed at $3.98, up 10 cents since last Friday. For the week, September 2025 corn futures traded between $3.79 and $3.98. Sep/Dec and Sep/Mar future spreads were 22 and 30 cents.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 71% good-to-excellent (down unchanged from last week) and 8% poor-to-very poor (unchanged from last week); corn dough at 83% compared to 72% last week, 83% last year, and a 5-year average of 84%; and corn dented at 44% compared to 27% last week, 44% last year and a 5-year average of 44%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 57% good-to-excellent (down 1% from last week) and 14% poor-to-very poor (unchanged from last week); corn dough at 95% compared to 87% last week, 92% last year, and a 5-year average of 92%; and corn dented at 81% compared to 66% last week, 77% last year, and a 5-year average of 72%. This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $3.81 to $3.99 at elevators and barge points. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.20, up 9 cents since last Friday. March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.37, up 9 cents since last Friday.

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 55 under to 2 under the September futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 23 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales reduction of 6.9 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 50.4 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 21% compared to last week at 15 million bushels, which is also down 23% from the prior 4-week average. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.58 to $10.27. September 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.36, unchanged since last Friday. For the week, September 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.19 and $10.39. The September soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.60 at the end of the week. Sep/Nov and Sep/Jan future spreads were 18 and 36 cents.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 69% good-to-excellent (up 1% from last week) and 8% poor-to-very poor (unchanged from last week); soybeans setting pods at 89% compared to 82% last week, 88% last year, and a 5-year average of 89%; and soybeans dropping leaves at 4% compared to 6% last year, and a 5-year average of 4%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 49% good-to-excellent (down 2% from last week) compared to 19% poor-to-very poor (unchanged from last week); soybeans dropping leaves at 10% compared to 16% last year, and a 5-year average of 7%; and soybeans setting pods at 86% compared to 76% last week, 91% last year, and a 5-year average of 86%. Oct/Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $9.58 to $10.20 for the week. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.54, down 4 cents since last Friday. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.50 at the end of the week. January 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.72, down 5 cents since last Friday.

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for August 29 were 64.79 cents/lb (41-4-34) and
69.54 cents/lb (31-3-35). Cotton net weekly sales totaled 179,00 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year, which is up 73,900 bales from last week. Exports for the same period were 112,700 which is down 10,600 bales compared to last week.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 54% good-to-excellent (down 1% from last week) and 13% poor-to-very poor (down 1% from last week); cotton setting bolls at 81% compared to 73% last week, 88% last year, and a 5-year average of 87%; and cotton setting bolls opening at 20% compared to 13% last week, 24% last year and a 5- year average of 22%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 48% good-to-excellent (up 1% from last week) and 12% poor-to-very poor (down 16% from last week); cotton setting bolls at 91% compared to 85% last week, 85% last year, and a 5-year average of 83%; and cotton bolls opening at 20% compared to 2% last week, 20% last year and a 5- year average of 10%. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 66.54 cents, down 1.94 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 cotton futures traded between 65.94 and 69.54 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.86 cents and 3.25 cents. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 68.4 cents, down 1.34 cents since last Friday. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 69.79 cents, down 1.22 cents since last Friday.

Wheat

Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 21.3 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. This makes weekly sales up 12% from the previous week, and down 10% from the prior 4-week average. Exports for the same period were up 176% (yes you read that correct) from the previous week at 36.95 million bushels (up from 13.2 million bushels last week). Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat harvested at 98% compared to 94% last week, 99% last year, and a 5-year average of 98%; spring wheat condition at 49% good-to-excellent (down 1% compared to last week) and 18% poor-to-very poor (unchanged compared to last week); spring wheat harvested at 53% compared to 36% last week, 48% last year, and a 5-year average of 54%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.42 to $4.74, which are increases from last week’s range of $4.38 to $4.62.

September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.18, up cents since last Friday. September 2025 wheat futures traded between $4.98 and $5.15 this week. Sep/Dec and Sep/Jul future spreads were 16 and 53 cents. The September wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.30. December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.26, 1 cent lower than last Friday. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.71, up 6 cents since last Friday.

Additional Information

Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news

If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at cmart113@utk.edu.