Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook
The following is a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based on 2018 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2023 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2023 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.
The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith.
March 11, 2025 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates
Corn
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
May 2025 corn futures closed down 1 ¾ cents at $4.70 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $4.69 to $4.77 ½. December 2025 corn futures closed down ½ cents at $4.54 ½ with a trading range for the day of $4.53 ½ to $4.57 ¾. No major changes to corn supply and demand. The primary driver of old crop corn prices will be tariffs and retaliatory tariffs. Currently this has a large amount of uncertainty for major US corn importers, including Mexico, China, and Canada.
USDA Summary
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast higher. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, reduced trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher as increases for India, Russia, and Ukraine are partly offset by declines for South Africa and Mexico. India is raised reflecting increases to both area and yield; the latest information from the government indicates greater planted area, while yield prospects are higher on exceptional kharif monsoon season rainfall. Russia is increased based on the latest data from Rosstat. Ukraine is raised based on updated harvest information. South Africa is reduced mostly reflecting lower area. Mexico is cut as lower winter corn yield expectations are partially offset by higher summer corn area.
Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include reduced corn exports for Brazil and South Africa. For 2023/24, Brazil’s exports for the marketing year ending February 2025 are lowered based on observed shipments to date. More than offsetting is an increase for Argentina. Corn imports for 2024/25 are cut for China and Taiwan but raised for Turkey, Vietnam, Colombia, and Egypt. Global corn ending stocks, at 11.373 billion bushels, are down 55 million.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected February | 2024/25 Projected March | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 90.7 | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 90.6 | 90.6 | 0.0 | -4.0 |
| Harvested (Million) | 82.3 | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 82.9 | 82.9 | 0.0 | -3.6 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 171.4 | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 179.3 | 179.3 | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,919 | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,763 | 0 | 403 |
| Production | 14,111 | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,341 | 14,867 | 14,867 | 0 | -474 |
| Imports | 24 | 24 | 39 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 0 | -3 |
| Total Supply | 16,055 | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,729 | 16,655 | 16,655 | 0 | -74 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Feed and Residual | 5,607 | 5,671 | 5,486 | 5,805 | 5,775 | 5,775 | 0 | -30 |
| Ethanol | 5,028 | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,478 | 5,500 | 5,500 | 0 | 22 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 1,439 | 1,437 | 1,382 | 1,390 | 1,390 | 1,390 | 0 | 0 |
| Exports | 2,747 | 2,472 | 1,662 | 2,292 | 2,450 | 2,450 | 0 | 158 |
| Total Use | 14,821 | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,966 | 15,115 | 15,115 | 0 | 149 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,540 | 1,540 | 0 | -223 |
| Foreign Stocks | 10,294 | 10,858 | 10,640 | 10,596 | 9,889 | 9,835 | -54 | -761 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $4.53 | $6.00 | $6.54 | $4.55 | $4.35 | $4.35 | $0.00 | -$0.20 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 8.33% | 9.24% | 9.92% | 11.78% | 10.19% | 10.19% | $0.00 | -1.59% |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024/25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 12,360 | 47,799 | 7,098 | 30,684 | 48,784 | 7,337 | 11,375 |
| United States | 1,763 | 14,867 | 25 | 5,775 | 12,665 | 2,450 | 1,540 |
| Total Foreign | 10,596 | 32,933 | 7,073 | 24,909 | 36,119 | 4,887 | 9,835 |
| Argentina | 102 | 1,968 | 0 | 394 | 563 | 1,417 | 90 |
| Brazil | 294 | 4,960 | 59 | 2,539 | 3,464 | 1,732 | 117 |
| Russia | 30 | 551 | 2 | 374 | 417 | 130 | 36 |
| South Africa | 33 | 630 | 0 | 272 | 543 | 67 | 52 |
| Ukraine | 42 | 1,055 | 1 | 165 | 203 | 866 | 29 |
| Egypt | 56 | 276 | 331 | 504 | 606 | 0 | 56 |
| E.U. | 285 | 2,283 | 768 | 2,205 | 2,980 | 98 | 257 |
| Japan | 51 | 1 | 602 | 472 | 604 | 0 | 50 |
| Mexico | 186 | 917 | 965 | 1,161 | 1,898 | 1 | 169 |
| Southeast Asia | 132 | 1,215 | 807 | 1,661 | 2,020 | 22 | 112 |
| South Korea | 76 | 4 | 453 | 366 | 459 | 0 | 74 |
| Canada | 79 | 604 | 87 | 378 | 610 | 83 | 76 |
| China | 8,318 | 11,610 | 315 | 9,094 | 12,322 | 1 | 7,920 |
| ROW | 913 | 6,858 | 2,684 | 5,323 | 9,430 | 469 | 795 |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels): Current-Previous Month 2024/25
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -73 | 67 | -34 | 76 | 48 | -113 | -54 |
| United States | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Total Foreign | -73 | 67 | -34 | 75 | 48 | -113 | -54 |
| Argentina | -20 | – | – | – | – | – | -20 |
| Brazil | -54 | – | – | 20 | 20 | -79 | 5 |
| Russia | – | 30 | – | 8 | 8 | – | 22 |
| South Africa | 1 | -39 | – | – | – | -35 | -3 |
| Ukraine | – | 12 | – | 8 | 8 | – | 4 |
| Egypt | – | – | 8 | – | 4 | – | 4 |
| E.U. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | – | -16 | – | -12 | -12 | – | -4 |
| Southeast Asia | – | – | 12 | 12 | 12 | – | – |
| South Korea | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Canada | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| China | – | – | -79 | – | – | – | -79 |
| ROW | – | 81 | 25 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 17 |
Cotton
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
May 25 cotton futures closed unchanged at 66.0 with a trading range for the day of 65.42 to 66.73 cents. December 2025 cotton futures closed up 0.19 cents at 68.85 cents with a trading range for the day of 68.24 to 69.28 cents. No major changes will result in cotton prices continuing to trade below 70 cents.
USDA Summary
There are no changes to this month’s 2024/25 U.S. cotton balance sheet. The 2024/25 season average upland farm price projection is reduced to 63 cents per pound.
For the 2024/25 world cotton balance sheet, production, consumption, and trade are increased while ending stocks are reduced this month. Beginning stocks are unchanged. Higher production for China more than offsets reductions for Pakistan and Argentina. Consumption is raised for Pakistan, Bangladesh and Egypt, more than offsetting small changes elsewhere. Exports by Brazil and Turkey are increased, exceeding reductions for Australia and Egypt. Imports by China are lowered but are more than offset by increases for Pakistan, Bangladesh and Egypt. Ending stocks for 2024/25 are lowered 80,000 bales.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected February | 2024/25 Projected March | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 12.09 | 11.21 | 13.75 | 10.23 | 11.18 | 11.18 | 0 | 0.95 |
| Harvested (Million) | 8.22 | 10.26 | 7.29 | 6.44 | 8.27 | 8.27 | 0 | 1.83 |
| U.S. Average Yield (lb/acre) | 853 | 820 | 953 | 899 | 836 | 836 | 0 | -63 |
| Supply (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 7.25 | 3.15 | 4.6 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Production | 14.61 | 17.52 | 14.47 | 12.07 | 14.41 | 14.41 | 0 | 2.34 |
| Imports | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.01 |
| Total Supply | 21.86 | 20.68 | 19.07 | 16.72 | 17.57 | 17.57 | 0 | 0.85 |
| Use and Stocks (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Domestic | 2.4 | 2.55 | 2.05 | 1.85 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0 | -0.15 |
| Exports | 16.35 | 14.48 | 12.45 | 11.75 | 11 | 11 | 0 | -0.75 |
| Total Use | 18.75 | 17.03 | 14.5 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 0 | -0.9 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 3.15 | 4.05 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 0 | 1.75 |
| Foreign Stocks | 83.15 | 72.27 | 71.25 | 70.56 | 73.51 | 73.43 | -0.08 | 2.87 |
| Chinese Stocks | 37.79 | 38.06 | 33.36 | 36.72 | 37.42 | 37.67 | 0.25 | 0.95 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/lb) | $0.663 | $0.914 | $0.848 | $0.761 | $0.635 | $0.63 | -$0.01 | -$0.13 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 16.8% | 24% | 32% | 23% | 39% | 39% | 0.00% | 15.42% |
| Chinese Stocks/Use | 95.7% | 115.3% | 88.5% | 94.4% | 99.8% | 100.5% | 0.67% | 6.06% |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) 2024/25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 73.71 | 120.96 | 42.69 | 116.54 | 42.71 | -0.22 | 78.33 |
| United States | 3.15 | 14.41 | 0.01 | 1.7 | 11 | -0.03 | 4.9 |
| Total Foreign | 70.56 | 106.55 | 42.68 | 114.84 | 31.71 | -0.19 | 73.43 |
| Central Asia | 3.2 | 5.14 | 0.1 | 4.07 | 1.41 | 0 | 2.96 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | 1.29 | 4.71 | 0 | 0.1 | 4.58 | 0 | 1.33 |
| Australia | 4.2 | 5.4 | 0 | 0.01 | 5.4 | -0.19 | 4.38 |
| Brazil | 3.11 | 17 | 0.01 | 3.3 | 13 | 0 | 3.82 |
| India | 9.3 | 25 | 2.6 | 25.5 | 1.4 | 0 | 10 |
| Mexico | 0.24 | 0.83 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.15 | 0 | 0.22 |
| China | 36.72 | 31.75 | 6.8 | 37.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 37.67 |
| E.U. | 0.26 | 1.26 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 |
| Turkey | 1.41 | 4 | 4.2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1.61 |
| Pakistan | 1.85 | 5 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 0.05 | 0 | 2 |
| Indonesia | 0.4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.39 |
| Thailand | 0.09 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 |
| Bangladesh | 1.71 | 0.15 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 0 | 0 | 1.76 |
| Vietnam | 1.03 | 0 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 0 | 0 | 1.04 |
| ROW | 5.75 | 6.31 | 4.21 | 6.96 | 3.41 | 0.00 | 5.88 |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales): 2024/25 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 0 | 0.5 | 0.22 | 0.59 | 0.2 | 0.00 | -0.08 |
| United States | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Total Foreign | – | 0.5 | 0.21 | 0.59 | 0.2 | – | -0.08 |
| Central Asia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Australia | – | – | – | – | -0.1 | – | 0.1 |
| Brazil | – | – | – | – | 0.2 | – | -0.2 |
| India | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | – | – | -0.08 | -0.05 | – | – | -0.02 |
| China | – | 0.75 | -0.5 | – | – | – | 0.25 |
| E.U. | – | – | -0.03 | -0.02 | – | – | – |
| Turkey | – | – | – | – | 0.15 | – | -0.15 |
| Pakistan | – | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
| Indonesia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Thailand | – | – | 0.02 | 0.02 | – | – | – |
| Bangladesh | – | – | 0.2 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| Vietnam | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | – | -0.05 | 0.11 | 0.14 | -0.05 | – | -0.06 |
Soybeans
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
May 2025 soybean futures were down 2 ¾ cents for the day closing at $10.11 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $10.09 ¾ to $10.21 ¼. November 2025 soybean futures closed down 2 ¼ cents at $10.15 ½ with a trading range for the day of $10.13 ¾ to $10.23 ¼. No production changes in South America compared to last month. Tariffs with China will continue to dictate if prices will continue to fall.
USDA Summary
U.S. 2024/25 soybean supply and use projections are unchanged this month. The soybean oil balance sheet includes higher exports and lower soybean oil used for biofuel. The season-average soybean price is projected at $9.95 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound, respectively.
Global 2024/25 soybean supply and use forecasts include nearly unchanged production, higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Higher production for Ukraine, Mexico, and Australia is offset by lower production for South Africa. Soybean crush is raised 107 million bushels to 12.963 billion, mainly on higher crush for China, Argentina, Thailand, Ukraine, and Pakistan. Soybean crush for China is raised 73 million bushels to 3.858 billion based on pace to date. Global soybean exports are nearly unchanged as higher shipments for Canada are offset by lower exports for South Africa. Global ending stocks are reduced 107 million bushels to 4.461 billion mainly on lower stocks for China and Argentina.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected February | 2024/25 Projected March | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 83.4 | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 87.1 | 87.1 | 0.0 | 3.5 |
| Harvested (Million) | 82.6 | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.3 | 86.1 | 86.1 | 0.0 | 3.8 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 51.0 | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 50.7 | 50.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 525 | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 342 | 0 | 78 |
| Production | 4,216 | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,162 | 4,366 | 4,366 | 0 | 204 |
| Imports | 20 | 16 | 25 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 0 | -1 |
| Total Supply | 4,761 | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,447 | 4,729 | 4,729 | 0 | 282 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Crushing | 2,141 | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,285 | 2,410 | 2,410 | 0 | 125 |
| Exports | 2,266 | 2,152 | 1,980 | 1,695 | 1,825 | 1,825 | 0 | 130 |
| Seed and Residual | 97 | 107 | 114 | 125 | 114 | 114 | 0 | -11 |
| Total Use | 4,504 | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,105 | 4,349 | 4,349 | 0 | 244 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 380 | 380 | 0 | 38 |
| Foreign Stocks | 3,430 | 3,146 | 3,456 | 3,793 | 4,189 | 4,081 | -108 | 288 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Average Season Price ($/Bu) | $10.80 | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.40 | $10.10 | $9.95 | -$0.15 | -$2.45 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 5.71% | 6.14% | 6.13% | 8.33% | 8.74% | 8.74% | 0.00% | 0.41% |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024/2025 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 4,136 | 15,460 | 6,584 | 12,965 | 15,034 | 6,686 | 4,461 |
| United States | 342 | 4,367 | 20 | 2,410 | 2,524 | 1,825 | 380 |
| Total Foreign | 3,793 | 11,094 | 6,564 | 10,555 | 12,510 | 4,860 | 4,081 |
| Argentina | 884 | 1,800 | 220 | 1,543 | 1,822 | 165 | 917 |
| Brazil | 1,028 | 6,210 | 6 | 2,058 | 2,208 | 3,876 | 1,158 |
| Paraguay | 11 | 393 | 1 | 114 | 121 | 268 | 16 |
| China | 1,591 | 759 | 4,005 | 3,858 | 4,736 | 4 | 1,615 |
| E.U. | 41 | 105 | 536 | 559 | 624 | 11 | 48 |
| S.E. Asia | 31 | 17 | 378 | 188 | 380 | 0 | 46 |
| Mexico | 10 | 10 | 246 | 244 | 247 | 0 | 19 |
| ROW | 198 | 1,800 | 1,172 | 1,990 | 2,373 | 535 | 262 |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2024/2025 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 2 | 0 | -1 | 108 | 109 | – | -108 |
| United States | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Total Foreign | 2 | – | -1 | 108 | 110 | – | -108 |
| Argentina | – | – | – | 37 | 37 | – | -37 |
| Brazil | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Paraguay | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| China | – | – | – | 73 | 73 | – | -73 |
| E.U. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| S.E. Asia | – | – | 15 | 11 | 14 | – | 2 |
| Mexico | – | 2 | – | – | – | – | 2 |
| ROW | 2 | -2 | -17 | -13 | -14 | – | -1 |
Wheat
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
May 2025 wheat futures closed down 5 ¾ cents at $5.56 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $5.55 ½ to $5.63. July 2025 wheat futures closed down 5 ½ cents for the day at $5.71 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $5.70 ½ to $5.77 ½. Increased global production compared to last month will pressure wheat prices lower. Uncertainty in global trade due to tariffs will also weigh heavily on wheat prices.
USDA Summary
The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased imports, up 10 million bushels to 140 million on a continued robust pace. By-class increases were made to Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum. Wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 835 million, based on Census exports through January and expectations for sales and shipments for the remainder of the marketing year. By-class reductions were made to HRS, Soft Red Winter, and Durum. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $5.50 on NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook this month for 2024/25 is for larger supplies, higher consumption, reduced trade, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are projected up by 198 million bushels to 39.195 billion, mainly on increased beginning stocks for Turkey and higher production for Australia, Argentina and Ukraine. Australia’s production is raised 77 million bushels to 1.253 billion, which is Australia’s third largest production on record. This is based on the latest ABARES estimate, where most of the higher production was in Western Australia and New South Wales. Turkey’s 2024/25 beginning stocks are raised 81 million bushels on a multi-year downward revision in its food, seed, and industrial usage. Global consumption is raised 107 million bushels to 29.641billion, primarily on higher feed and residual use for Australia, EU, and Thailand. World trade is 33 million bushels lower at 7.646 billion on decreased exports for EU, Russia, and the United States. China’s imports are reduced 55 million bushels to 239 million and are less than half of its 2023/24 imports. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are raised 92 million bushels to 9.557 billion, mostly on increases for Turkey, Argentina, the United States, Australia, and Russia.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected February | 2024/25 Projected March | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 44.5 | 46.7 | 45.8 | 49.6 | 46.1 | 46.1 | 0 | -3.5 |
| Harvested (Million) | 36.8 | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.1 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 0 | 1.4 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 49.7 | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.7 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,028 | 845 | 674 | 570 | 696 | 696 | 0 | 126 |
| Production | 1,828 | 1,646 | 1,650 | 1,804 | 1,971 | 1,971 | 0 | 167 |
| Imports | 100 | 96 | 122 | 138 | 130 | 140 | 10 | 2 |
| Total Supply | 2,956 | 2,588 | 2,446 | 2,512 | 2,798 | 2,808 | 10 | 296 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Food | 961 | 971 | 972 | 961 | 970 | 970 | 0 | 9 |
| Seed | 64 | 58 | 68 | 62 | 64 | 64 | 0 | 2 |
| Feed | 93 | 88 | 74 | 85 | 120 | 120 | 0 | 35 |
| Exports | 994 | 796 | 762 | 707 | 850 | 835 | -15 | 128 |
| Total Use | 2,111 | 1,913 | 1,876 | 1,815 | 2,004 | 1,989 | -15 | 174 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 845 | 674 | 570 | 696 | 794 | 819 | 25 | 123 |
| Foreign Stocks | 9,676 | 9,345 | 9,577 | 9,206 | 8,670 | 8,737 | 67 | -469 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $5.05 | $7.63 | $8.83 | $6.96 | $5.55 | $5.50 | -$0.05 | -$1.46 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 40.03% | 35.23% | 30.38% | 38.35% | 39.62% | 41.18% | 1.56% | 2.83% |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024-25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 9,902 | 29,293 | 7,448 | 5,690 | 29,639 | 7,645 | 9,556 |
| United States | 696 | 1,971 | 140 | 120 | 1,153 | 835 | 819 |
| Total Foreign | 9,206 | 27,322 | 7,308 | 5,570 | 28,486 | 6,810 | 8,737 |
| Argentina | 167 | 680 | 0 | 9 | 259 | 423 | 165 |
| Australia | 107 | 1,253 | 7 | 165 | 294 | 955 | 118 |
| Canada | 168 | 1,285 | 20 | 158 | 349 | 955 | 169 |
| European Union | 571 | 4,457 | 386 | 1,672 | 4,033 | 992 | 389 |
| Russia | 430 | 2,998 | 11 | 570 | 1,405 | 1,653 | 380 |
| Ukraine | 26 | 860 | 3 | 85 | 257 | 570 | 62 |
| Bangladesh | 40 | 40 | 246 | 9 | 288 | 0 | 38 |
| Brazil | 62 | 290 | 239 | 18 | 437 | 99 | 54 |
| China | 4,942 | 5,148 | 239 | 1,213 | 5,548 | 37 | 4,744 |
| Japan | 40 | 40 | 198 | 24 | 226 | 11 | 41 |
| N. Africa | 410 | 588 | 1,202 | 53 | 1,723 | 79 | 398 |
| Nigeria | 16 | 4 | 213 | 0 | 187 | 14 | 32 |
| Sel. Mideast | 462 | 823 | 654 | 104 | 1,478 | 26 | 434 |
| Southeast Asia | 164 | 0 | 1,131 | 386 | 1,080 | 47 | 168 |
| India | 276 | 4,163 | 7 | 220 | 4,124 | 9 | 312 |
| Kazakhstan | 127 | 683 | 18 | 118 | 305 | 367 | 155 |
| United Kingdom | 120 | 406 | 136 | 246 | 547 | 18 | 96 |
| ROW | 1,080 | 3,604 | 2,597 | 520 | 5,944 | 554 | 981 |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2024/2025 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 74 | 126 | -78 | 50 | 108 | -34 | 93 |
| United States | – | – | 10 | – | – | -15 | 25 |
| Total Foreign | 74 | 126 | -88 | 50 | 107 | -19 | 68 |
| Argentina | – | 29 | – | – | – | – | 29 |
| Australia | – | 78 | – | 18 | 18 | 37 | 22 |
| Canada | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| European Union | – | – | -18 | 18 | 18 | -37 | – |
| Russia | – | 4 | – | – | – | -18 | 22 |
| Ukraine | – | 18 | – | 4 | 4 | – | 15 |
| Bangladesh | – | – | -7 | – | -4 | – | -4 |
| Brazil | – | – | 4 | – | – | – | 4 |
| China | – | – | -55 | – | – | – | -55 |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| N. Africa | 2 | – | 7 | – | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| Nigeria | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sel. Mideast | -7 | – | – | -7 | 4 | -4 | -7 |
| Southeast Asia | – | – | 19 | 11 | 15 | – | 4 |
| India | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Kazakhstan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| United Kingdom | – | – | 7 | 4 | 4 | – | 4 |
| ROW | 78 | -3 | -44 | 2 | 45 | 1 | 29 |
Profitability Update
2024 Estimated Returns – Non-Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of March 11, 2025, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, non-irrigated yields are average yields for Tennessee from the USDA Crop Production Report. Prices used for grain, oilseeds, and cotton are based on current Tennessee cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2024 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Land cost was estimated as a cash rent at the USDA NASS state average for non-irrigated cropland of $117 per acre. Substantial variation in land costs exists in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2024 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses returns over specified costs for corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing a -$109, -$223, -$161, and -$194 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will also vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield – Crop Production Report (Tennessee) | 1,066 | 42 | 152 | 75/40 |
| Current Price (as of 3/11/2025) | $0.67 | $10.02 | $4.61 | $5.09/$10.02 |
| Revenue | $714 | $421 | $701 | $783 |
| Variable Expenses | $610 | $305 | $520 | $590 |
| Returns Over Variable | $104 | $116 | $181 | $193 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $117 | $117 | $117 | $117 |
| Returns Over Variable and Land Costs | ($13) | ($1) | $64 | $76 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $210 | $160 | $173 | $270 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($223) | ($161) | ($109) | ($194) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.88 | $13.86 | $5.33 | $6.43/$12.21 |
2024 Estimated Returns – Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of March 11, 2025, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, irrigated yields were estimated as: 240 bushels per acre for corn, 65 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, 1,450 pounds per acre cotton, and 85 bushels of wheat and 60 bushels of soybeans for double crop wheat/soybeans. Prices used for grain and cotton sales are based on current Tennessee harvest cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2024 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Irrigation fixed costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and irrigation systems. Land cost was estimated as cash rent of $197/acre (USDA NASS state average for irrigated cropland in Tennessee). Substantial variation in land costs exists in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2024 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing returns of -$92, -$286, -$189, and -$238 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Yield (lb or bu) | 1,450 | 65 | 240 | 85/60 |
| Current Price (as of 3/11/2025) | $0.67 | $10.02 | $4.61 | $5.09/$10.02 |
| Revenue | $972 | $651 | $1,106 | $1,034 |
| Variable Expenses (includes energy cost) | $735 | $380 | $720 | $720 |
| Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre | $100 | $100 | $100 | $100 |
| Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR Costs | $137 | $171 | $286 | $214 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $197 | $197 | $197 | $197 |
| Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed Cost and Land Costs | ($60) | ($26) | $89 | $17 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $225 | $163 | $181 | $255 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($286) | ($189) | ($92) | ($238) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.87 | $12.92 | $4.99 | $7.48/$10.60 |