Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook
The following is a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based on 2018 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2023 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2023 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.
The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith.
November 8, 2024 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates
Corn
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
December 2024 corn futures closed up 3 ½ cents at $4.31 with a trading range for the day of $4.26 ¾ to $4.34 ¾. March 2025 corn futures closed up 3 ¾ cent at $4.44 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $4.40 to $4.47 ¾. Reduction in US yield and production and increased foreign consumption were slightly bullish for prices, but overall the report will not facilitate a substantial change in the current price trajectory.
USDA Summary
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production and ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down 60 million from last month on a 0.7-bushel reduction in yield to 183.1 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 82.7 million acres. Total use is unchanged at 15.0 billion bushels. With supply falling and no change to use, corn ending stocks are down to 1.9 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast fractionally lower. This month’s 2024/25 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, lower trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for Uganda, Malawi, Belarus, Mozambique, Kenya, and Cameroon are partly offset by declines for Mexico, Turkey, and the EU. Mexico production is lowered reflecting lower winter corn area expectations.
Major global trade changes include lower corn exports for Brazil and South Africa with increases for Burma and Uganda. Corn imports are reduced for China and Malawi but raised for Mexico, Vietnam, Turkey, and Peru. Foreign corn ending stocks are down, mostly reflecting a decline for China that is partly offset by increases for Mexico, Uganda, and Canada. Global corn ending stocks, at 11.972 billion bushels, are down 94 million.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected October | 2024/25 Projected November | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 90.7 | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 90.7 | 90.7 | 0.0 | -3.9 |
| Harvested (Million) | 82.3 | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 82.7 | 82.7 | 0.0 | -3.8 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 171.4 | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 183.8 | 183.1 | -0.7 | 5.8 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,919 | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,760 | 1,760 | 0 | 400 |
| Production | 14,111 | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,341 | 15,203 | 15,143 | -60 | -198 |
| Imports | 24 | 24 | 39 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 0 | -3 |
| Total Supply | 16,055 | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,729 | 16,989 | 16,928 | -61 | 199 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Feed and Residual | 5,607 | 5,671 | 5,486 | 5,807 | 5,825 | 5,825 | 0 | 18 |
| Ethanol | 5,028 | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,478 | 5,450 | 5,450 | 0 | -28 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 1,439 | 1,437 | 1,382 | 1,391 | 1,390 | 1,390 | 0 | -1 |
| Exports | 2,747 | 2,472 | 1,662 | 2,292 | 2,325 | 2,325 | 0 | 33 |
| Total Use | 14,821 | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,969 | 14,990 | 14,990 | 0 | 21 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,760 | 1,999 | 1,938 | -61 | 178 |
| Foreign Stocks | 10,294 | 10,858 | 10,631 | 10,610 | 10,068 | 10,035 | -33 | -575 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $4.53 | $6.00 | $6.54 | $4.55 | $4.10 | $4.10 | $0.00 | -$0.45 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 8.33% | 9.24% | 9.92% | 11.76% | 13.34% | 12.93% | $0.00 | 1.17% |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024/25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 12,370 | 48,005 | 7,220 | 30,569 | 48,402 | 7,473 | 11,973 |
| United States | 1,761 | 15,143 | 25 | 5,825 | 12,665 | 2,325 | 1,938 |
| Total Foreign | 10,610 | 32,863 | 7,195 | 24,744 | 35,737 | 5,148 | 10,035 |
| Argentina | 161 | 2,008 | 0 | 472 | 642 | 1,417 | 110 |
| Brazil | 230 | 5,000 | 59 | 2,480 | 3,287 | 1,890 | 112 |
| Russia | 30 | 512 | 2 | 358 | 402 | 130 | 12 |
| South Africa | 32 | 669 | 0 | 268 | 535 | 110 | 56 |
| Ukraine | 57 | 1,031 | 1 | 122 | 159 | 905 | 25 |
| Egypt | 56 | 276 | 323 | 504 | 602 | 0 | 52 |
| E.U. | 294 | 2,315 | 748 | 2,177 | 2,957 | 130 | 271 |
| Japan | 51 | 1 | 610 | 480 | 612 | 0 | 50 |
| Mexico | 186 | 965 | 945 | 1,181 | 1,917 | 1 | 177 |
| Southeast Asia | 127 | 1,231 | 772 | 1,646 | 1,988 | 22 | 119 |
| South Korea | 76 | 4 | 465 | 374 | 467 | 0 | 78 |
| Canada | 79 | 598 | 87 | 394 | 614 | 75 | 75 |
| China | 8,318 | 11,495 | 630 | 9,094 | 12,322 | 1 | 8,120 |
| ROW | 912 | 6,759 | 2,555 | 5,194 | 9,233 | 467 | 779 |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels): Current-Previous Month 2024/25
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 62 | 87 | -17 | 88 | 243 | -26 | -94 |
| United States | – | -61 | – | – | – | – | -61 |
| Total Foreign | 62 | 148 | -17 | 88 | 243 | -27 | -33 |
| Argentina | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | – | – | – | – | 39 | -39 | – |
| Russia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| South Africa | -10 | – | – | -4 | 8 | -16 | -2 |
| Ukraine | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Egypt | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| E.U. | – | -8 | – | -8 | -8 | – | – |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | 30 | -20 | 59 | 28 | 28 | – | 42 |
| Southeast Asia | 3 | – | 35 | 31 | 35 | – | 2 |
| South Korea | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Canada | 6 | – | – | -8 | -4 | – | 10 |
| China | -3 | – | -118 | – | – | – | -121 |
| ROW | 36 | 175 | 7 | 48 | 144 | 29 | 36 |
Cotton
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
December 2024 cotton futures closed down 0.07 cents at 70.98 with a trading range for the day of 70.01 to 71.36 cents. March 2025 cotton futures closed down 0.18 cents at 73.25 cents with a trading range for the day of 72.33 to 73.75 cents. Downward revisions to export demand continue to hinder any meaningful increases in cotton prices.
USDA Summary
The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 shows marginally lower production, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. NASS revised its estimate for U.S. all-cotton production downward by 10,000 bales to just below 14.2 million in its November Crop Production report. The Georgia crop is raised about 200,000 bales offset by a similar reduction in the Texas crop with assorted small changes elsewhere. The national all-cotton yield estimate is unchanged from last month at 789 pounds per harvested acre. With global consumption and imports reduced, U.S. exports are reduced 200,000 bales to 11.3 million. Ending stocks are raised 200,000 bales to 4.3 million, for a stocks-to-use ratio of about 33 percent. The 2024/25 season average upland farm price is unchanged at 66 cents per pound. There are no revisions to the 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet.
World production, consumption, beginning and ending stocks, and trade are all reduced in the 2024/25 global balance sheet. Production is lowered by 460,000 bales with the largest reductions for Pakistan and Turkmenistan. Consumption is reduced by 515,000 bales, primarily due to decreases for Turkey and Pakistan. Ending stocks are lowered by 574,000 bales with large reductions for India, Turkmenistan, and Pakistan more than offsetting increases for the United States and Uzbekistan. Reduced imports by Turkey, offset to a degree by higher imports by Uzbekistan and Egypt, lead to a 295,000-bale reduction in world trade. In the 2023/24 global balance sheet, historical revisions to production result in lower ending stocks.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected October | 2024/25 Projected November | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 12.09 | 11.21 | 13.75 | 10.23 | 11.17 | 11.17 | 0 | 0.94 |
| Harvested (Million) | 8.22 | 10.26 | 7.29 | 6.44 | 8.63 | 8.63 | 0 | 2.19 |
| U.S. Average Yield (lb/acre) | 853 | 820 | 953 | 899 | 789 | 789 | 0 | -110 |
| Supply (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 7.25 | 3.15 | 4.6 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Production | 14.61 | 17.52 | 14.47 | 12.07 | 14.2 | 14.19 | -0.01 | 2.12 |
| Imports | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.01 |
| Total Supply | 21.86 | 20.68 | 19.07 | 16.72 | 17.36 | 17.35 | -0.01 | 0.63 |
| Use and Stocks (Million 480 Pound Bales) | ||||||||
| Domestic | 2.4 | 2.55 | 2.05 | 1.85 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0 | -0.05 |
| Exports | 16.35 | 14.48 | 12.45 | 11.75 | 11.5 | 11.3 | -0.2 | -0.45 |
| Total Use | 18.75 | 17.03 | 14.5 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 13.1 | -0.2 | -0.5 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 3.15 | 4.05 | 4.65 | 3.15 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 0.2 | 1.15 |
| Foreign Stocks | 83.15 | 72.27 | 71.13 | 71.44 | 72.23 | 71.45 | -0.78 | 0.01 |
| Chinese Stocks | 37.79 | 38.06 | 33.36 | 37.12 | 36.24 | 36.24 | 0 | -0.88 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/lb) | $0.663 | $0.914 | $0.848 | $0.761 | $0.66 | $0.66 | $0.00 | -$0.10 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 16.8% | 24% | 32% | 23% | 31% | 33% | 2.00% | 9.66% |
| Chinese Stocks/Use | 95.7% | 115.3% | 88.5% | 96.4% | 95.4% | 95.4% | 0.00% | -1.05% |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) 2024/25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 74.59 | 116.18 | 42.15 | 115.22 | 42.18 | -0.23 | 75.75 |
| United States | 3.15 | 14.19 | 0.01 | 1.8 | 11.3 | -0.05 | 4.3 |
| Total Foreign | 71.44 | 101.99 | 42.15 | 113.42 | 30.88 | -0.18 | 71.45 |
| Central Asia | 3.21 | 5.17 | 0.1 | 4.07 | 1.39 | 0 | 3.03 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | 1.29 | 4.81 | 0 | 0.1 | 4.65 | 0 | 1.36 |
| Australia | 4.2 | 5 | 0 | 0.01 | 5.4 | -0.18 | 3.97 |
| Brazil | 3.11 | 16.8 | 0.01 | 3.3 | 12.3 | 0 | 4.32 |
| India | 9.8 | 24 | 2.3 | 25.5 | 1.3 | 0 | 9.3 |
| Mexico | 0.24 | 0.83 | 0.93 | 1.55 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.24 |
| China | 37.12 | 28.2 | 9 | 38 | 0.08 | 0 | 36.24 |
| E.U. | 0.26 | 1.26 | 0.54 | 0.56 | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 |
| Turkey | 1.41 | 4 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 0.8 | 0 | 1.81 |
| Pakistan | 1.85 | 5.5 | 4 | 9.5 | 0.05 | 0 | 1.8 |
| Indonesia | 0.4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.39 |
| Thailand | 0.09 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.42 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 |
| Bangladesh | 1.71 | 0.15 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 0 | 0 | 1.76 |
| Vietnam | 1.03 | 0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | 1.04 |
| ROW | 5.72 | 6.27 | 3.96 | 6.61 | 3.5 | 0.00 | 5.82 |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales): 2024/25 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -0.61 | -0.46 | -0.33 | -0.52 | -0.29 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| United States | – | -0.01 | – | – | -0.2 | -0.01 | 0.2 |
| Total Foreign | -0.61 | -0.45 | -0.32 | -0.52 | -0.09 | – | -0.78 |
| Central Asia | -0.11 | -0.1 | 0.07 | -0.01 | – | – | -0.12 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Australia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| India | -0.4 | – | – | – | – | – | -0.4 |
| Mexico | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| China | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| E.U. | – | -0.06 | – | – | -0.02 | – | -0.04 |
| Turkey | – | 0 | -0.4 | -0.4 | – | – | – |
| Pakistan | – | -0.2 | – | -0.1 | – | – | -0.1 |
| Indonesia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Thailand | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Bangladesh | – | -0.01 | – | – | – | – | -0.01 |
| Vietnam | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | -0.1 | -0.08 | – | -0.01 | -0.07 | – | -0.11 |
Soybeans
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
January 2025 soybean futures were up 4 cents for the day closing at $10.30 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $10.17 ½ to $10.44. November 2025 soybean futures closed up 3 ¾ cents at $10.52 ½ with a trading range for the day of $10.40 to $10.60 ½. Average US soybean yield was decreased 1.4 bu/acre which assisted in decreasing projected carryover stocks to 470 million bushels. Price direction will remain contingent on South American crop progress and weather.
USDA Summary
U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2024/25 include lower production, exports, crush, and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.5 billion bushels, down 121 million on reduced yields. The largest production changes are for Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota. Exports are lowered 25 million bushels to 1.8 billion on lower supplies and sales to date. Crush is lowered 15 million bushels to 2.4 billion, reflecting lower soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean ending stocks are lowered 80 million bushels to 470 million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at $320 per short ton. The soybean oil price is increased 1 cent to 43 cents per pound.
The global 2024/25 soybean supply and demand forecast includes lower production, higher exports, lower crush, and lower ending stocks. Global 2024/25 soybean production is lowered 129 million bushels to 15.631 billion, mainly on lower production for the United States and India. Production for India is lowered 7 million bushels to 463 million on information from the Soybean Processors Association (SOPA) of India. Global soybean exports are raised on higher shipments for Brazil, Canada, and Benin largely offset by lower U.S. shipments. Imports are raised for Pakistan. Higher crush for Pakistan is more than offset by lower crush for the United States. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 107 million bushels to 4.839 billion mainly on lower stocks for the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected October | 2024/25 Projected November | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 83.4 | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 87.1 | 87.1 | 0.0 | 3.5 |
| Harvested (Million) | 82.6 | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.3 | 86.3 | 86.3 | 0.0 | 4.0 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 51.0 | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 53.1 | 51.7 | -1.4 | 1.1 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 525 | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 342 | 0 | 78 |
| Production | 4,216 | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,162 | 4,582 | 4,461 | -121 | 299 |
| Imports | 20 | 16 | 25 | 21 | 15 | 15 | 0 | -6 |
| Total Supply | 4,761 | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,447 | 4,939 | 4,818 | -121 | 371 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Crushing | 2,141 | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,287 | 2,425 | 2,410 | -15 | 123 |
| Exports | 2,266 | 2,152 | 1,980 | 1,695 | 1,850 | 1,825 | -25 | 130 |
| Seed and Residual | 97 | 107 | 114 | 123 | 114 | 113 | -1 | -10 |
| Total Use | 4,504 | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,105 | 4,389 | 4,348 | -41 | 243 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | 550 | 470 | -80 | 128 |
| Foreign Stocks | 3,430 | 3,146 | 3,447 | 3,789 | 4,397 | 4,371 | -26 | 582 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Average Season Price ($/Bu) | $10.80 | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.40 | $10.80 | $10.80 | $0.00 | -$1.60 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 5.71% | 6.14% | 6.13% | 8.33% | 12.53% | 10.81% | -1.72% | 2.48% |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024/2025 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 4,131 | 15,631 | 6,537 | 12,719 | 14,781 | 6,677 | 4,841 |
| United States | 342 | 4,461 | 15 | 2,410 | 2,523 | 1,825 | 470 |
| Total Foreign | 3,789 | 11,170 | 6,522 | 10,309 | 12,258 | 4,852 | 4,371 |
| Argentina | 885 | 1,874 | 220 | 1,470 | 1,749 | 165 | 1,065 |
| Brazil | 1,027 | 6,210 | 6 | 1,984 | 2,135 | 3,876 | 1,231 |
| Paraguay | 7 | 412 | 1 | 129 | 135 | 268 | 16 |
| China | 1,591 | 761 | 4,005 | 3,785 | 4,663 | 4 | 1,691 |
| E.U. | 47 | 107 | 536 | 559 | 624 | 11 | 55 |
| S.E. Asia | 26 | 17 | 363 | 175 | 362 | 0 | 44 |
| Mexico | 10 | 8 | 246 | 244 | 247 | 0 | 17 |
| ROW | 195 | 1,782 | 1,144 | 1,964 | 2,345 | 527 | 251 |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2024/2025 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 2 | -129 | 11 | -8 | -16 | 7 | -107 |
| United States | – | -121 | – | -15 | -16 | -25 | -80 |
| Total Foreign | 2 | -8 | 11 | 7 | – | 32 | -27 |
| Argentina | -14 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 |
| Brazil | – | – | – | – | – | 18 | -18 |
| Paraguay | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| China | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| E.U. | -3 | – | – | – | -2 | – | -1 |
| S.E. Asia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | – | 2 | – | – | – | – | 2 |
| ROW | 18 | -11 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 13 | 4 |
Wheat
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
December 2024 wheat futures closed up 1 cent at $5.72 ½ with a trading range for the day of $5.66 ½ to $5.78 ¾. July 2025 wheat futures closed down ½ cent for the day at $6.05 with a trading range for the day of $5.98 ¼ to $6.09. No major changes were made to the US or foreign supply and demand estimates. New crop prices are likely to continue trading between $5.80 and $6.50.
USDA Summary
The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly larger supplies, domestic use, and ending stocks but unchanged exports. Supplies are raised on higher imports, increased 5 million bushels to 120 million, all on Hard Red Spring. Domestic use is raised, all on food use, based mainly on the NASS Flour Milling Products report. Exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are increased 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.60 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for larger supplies and consumption, reduced trade, and slightly lower stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 26 million bushels to 38.985 billion as higher production for Kazakhstan more than offsets reductions for Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and the EU. Kazakhstan’s production is raised 73 million bushels to 661 million on harvest results. This is the third-largest crop on record for Kazakhstan. Global consumption is increased 33 million bushels to 29.52 billion, primarily on higher feed and residual use for Kazakhstan with its larger production. World trade is 44 million lower at 7.889 billion on reduced exports for Turkey and Kazakhstan. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are lowered 4 million bushels to 9.465 billion as decreases for Argentina, China, and Brazil are not completely offset by increases for Kazakhstan and Turkey.
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 Est. | 2024/25 Projected October | 2024/25 Projected November | 2024/25 Change from Previous Month | Change 2024/25-2023/24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 44.5 | 46.7 | 45.8 | 49.6 | 46.1 | 46.1 | 0 | -3.5 |
| Harvested (Million) | 36.8 | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.1 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 0 | 1.4 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 49.7 | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.7 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,028 | 845 | 674 | 570 | 696 | 696 | 0 | 126 |
| Production | 1,828 | 1,646 | 1,650 | 1,804 | 1,971 | 1,971 | 0 | 167 |
| Imports | 100 | 96 | 122 | 138 | 115 | 120 | 5 | -18 |
| Total Supply | 2,956 | 2,588 | 2,446 | 2,512 | 2,783 | 2,788 | 5 | 276 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Food | 961 | 971 | 972 | 961 | 964 | 966 | 2 | 5 |
| Seed | 64 | 58 | 68 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
| Feed | 93 | 88 | 74 | 85 | 120 | 120 | 0 | 35 |
| Exports | 994 | 796 | 762 | 707 | 825 | 825 | 0 | 118 |
| Total Use | 2,111 | 1,913 | 1,876 | 1,815 | 1,971 | 1,973 | 2 | 158 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 845 | 674 | 570 | 696 | 812 | 815 | 3 | 119 |
| Foreign Stocks | 9,676 | 9,345 | 9,483 | 9,087 | 8,658 | 8,649 | -9 | -438 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $5.05 | $7.63 | $8.83 | $6.96 | $5.70 | $5.60 | -$0.10 | -$1.36 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 40.03% | 35.23% | 30.38% | 38.35% | 41.20% | 41.31% | 0.11% | 2.96% |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2024-25 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 9,783 | 29,201 | 7,717 | 5,618 | 29,520 | 7,888 | 9,464 |
| United States | 696 | 1,971 | 120 | 120 | 1,148 | 825 | 815 |
| Total Foreign | 9,087 | 27,230 | 7,597 | 5,498 | 28,372 | 7,063 | 8,649 |
| Argentina | 168 | 643 | 0 | 9 | 259 | 423 | 130 |
| Australia | 112 | 1,176 | 7 | 147 | 276 | 919 | 101 |
| Canada | 168 | 1,286 | 20 | 165 | 353 | 955 | 166 |
| European Union | 542 | 4,505 | 423 | 1,635 | 3,996 | 1,102 | 371 |
| Russia | 430 | 2,995 | 11 | 570 | 1,405 | 1,764 | 266 |
| Ukraine | 26 | 841 | 3 | 73 | 246 | 588 | 36 |
| Bangladesh | 40 | 40 | 254 | 9 | 292 | 0 | 42 |
| Brazil | 62 | 312 | 220 | 18 | 437 | 107 | 51 |
| China | 4,942 | 5,144 | 423 | 1,213 | 5,548 | 37 | 4,924 |
| Japan | 40 | 40 | 198 | 24 | 226 | 11 | 41 |
| N. Africa | 407 | 589 | 1,190 | 53 | 1,716 | 77 | 393 |
| Nigeria | 16 | 4 | 202 | 0 | 184 | 14 | 25 |
| Sel. Mideast | 466 | 823 | 676 | 119 | 1,487 | 30 | 447 |
| Southeast Asia | 168 | 0 | 1,104 | 366 | 1,054 | 47 | 172 |
| India | 276 | 4,163 | 7 | 220 | 4,124 | 9 | 312 |
| Kazakhstan | 122 | 661 | 18 | 110 | 298 | 367 | 137 |
| United Kingdom | 133 | 406 | 118 | 239 | 533 | 18 | 106 |
| ROW | 970 | 3,602 | 2,721 | 527 | 5,939 | 595 | 930 |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2024/2025 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 3 | 24 | -28 | 40 | 32 | -42 | -6 |
| United States | – | – | 5 | – | 2 | – | 3 |
| Total Foreign | 3 | 24 | -33 | 40 | 30 | -42 | -8 |
| Argentina | – | -18 | – | – | – | – | -18 |
| Australia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Canada | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| European Union | 3 | -15 | – | – | – | – | -12 |
| Russia | – | -18 | – | -18 | -18 | – | – |
| Ukraine | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Bangladesh | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | – | -18 | – | – | – | -4 | -15 |
| China | – | – | -18 | – | – | – | -18 |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| N. Africa | 1 | – | 18 | – | – | 18 | 1 |
| Nigeria | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0 |
| Sel. Mideast | – | 11 | -4 | 4 | 4 | – | 4 |
| Southeast Asia | – | – | 11 | 11 | 11 | – | – |
| India | – | – | -4 | – | -2 | -2 | – |
| Kazakhstan | – | 73 | -18 | 37 | 40 | -18 | 33 |
| United Kingdom | – | 7 | – | – | – | – | 7 |
| ROW | -2 | 2 | -18 | 7 | -5 | -37 | 9 |
Profitability Update
2024 Estimated Returns – Non-Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of the November 8, 2024, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, non-irrigated yields are average yields for Tennessee from the USDA Crop Production Report. Prices used for grain, oilseeds, and cotton are based on current Tennessee cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2024 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Land cost was estimated as a cash rent at the USDA NASS state average for non-irrigated cropland of $117 per acre. Substantial variation in land costs exist in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2024 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses returns over specified costs for corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing a -$140, -$162, -$119, and -$165 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will also vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield – Crop Production Report (Tennessee) | 1,075 | 45 | 153 | 75/40 |
| Current Price (as of 11/08/2024) | $0.72 | $10.30 | $4.38 | $5.34/$10.30 |
| Revenue | $775 | $464 | $670 | $813 |
| Variable Expenses | $610 | $305 | $520 | $590 |
| Returns Over Variable | $165 | $159 | $150 | $223 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $117 | $117 | $117 | $117 |
| Returns Over Variable and Land Costs | $48 | $42 | $33 | $106 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $210 | $160 | $173 | $270 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($162) | ($119) | ($140) | ($165) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.87 | $12.93 | $5.29 | $6.43/$12.21 |
2024 Estimated Returns – Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of the October 11, 2024, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, irrigated yields were estimated as: 240 bushels per acre for corn, 65 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, 1,450 pounds per acre cotton, and 85 bushels of wheat and 60 bushels of soybeans for double crop wheat/soybeans. Prices used for grain and cotton sales are based on current Tennessee harvest cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2024 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Irrigation fixed costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and irrigation systems. Land cost was estimated as cash rent of $197/acre (USDA NASS state average for irrigated cropland in Tennessee). Substantial variation in land costs exist in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2024 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing returns of -$147, -$211, -$171, and -$200 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Yield (lb or bu) | 1,450 | 65 | 240 | 85/60 |
| Current Price (as of 11/08/2024) | $0.72 | $10.30 | $4.38 | $5.34/$10.30 |
| Revenue | $1,046 | $670 | $1,051 | $1,072 |
| Variable Expenses (includes energy cost) | $735 | $380 | $720 | $720 |
| Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre | $100 | $100 | $100 | $100 |
| Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR Costs | $211 | $190 | $231 | $252 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $197 | $197 | $197 | $197 |
| Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed Cost and Land Costs | $14 | ($8) | $34 | $55 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $225 | $163 | $181 | $255 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($211) | ($171) | ($147) | ($200) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.87 | $12.92 | $4.99 | $7.48/$10.60 |