Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook
The following is a summary of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based on 2018 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension 2023 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2023 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.
The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith.
April 11, 2024 – USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates
Corn
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
May 2024 corn futures closed down 5 ½ cents at $4.28 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $4.27 ½ to $4.37 ½. December 2024 corn futures closed down 4 ¼ cents at $4.66 with a trading range for the day of $4.65 ¼ to $4.74 ¼. Small increases in consumption decreased US ending stocks by 50 million bushels. Nearby futures are likely to continue trading in the established range of $4.20 to $4.50.
USDA Summary
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for greater corn used for ethanol and feed and residual use and smaller ending stocks. Corn used for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5.4 billion based on data through February from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of March. Feed and residual use is increased 25 million to 5.7 billion based on indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter. With no supply changes and use rising, ending stocks are lowered 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast lower. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for declines in production, trade, and ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast lower as cuts for South Africa, Argentina, Mexico, and Moldova are partially offset by increases for the EU and the Philippines. Corn production is cut for South Africa as a continuation of drought during March further reduces yield prospects. Argentina and Mexico are both lowered reflecting a decline in yield expectations. EU corn production is raised mostly reflecting increases for Hungary, Poland, Spain, and France that are partly offset by declines for Romania, Slovakia, and Bulgaria.
Major global trade changes for 2023/24 include lower forecast corn exports for South Africa, India, and Tanzania but an increase for Russia. Corn imports are lowered for the EU, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Thailand, Cuba, and Kenya but raised for Mexico. Barley imports are raised for China but lowered for Saudi Arabia and Algeria. Foreign corn ending stocks are essentially unchanged, mostly reflecting declines for Mexico and South Africa that are offset by small increases for several countries. Global corn ending stocks, at 12.531 billion bushels, are down 55 million from last month.
| 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 Est. | 2023/24 Projected March | 2023/24 Projected April | 2023/24 Change from Previous Month | Change 2023/24-2022/23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 89.7 | 90.7 | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 94.6 | 0.0 | 6.4 |
| Harvested (Million) | 81.3 | 82.3 | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 86.5 | 0.0 | 7.8 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 167.5 | 171.4 | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 177.3 | 0.0 | 3.9 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 2,221 | 1,919 | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,360 | 0 | -17 |
| Production | 13,620 | 14,111 | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,342 | 15,342 | 0 | 1,691 |
| Imports | 42 | 24 | 24 | 39 | 25 | 25 | 0 | -14 |
| Total Supply | 15,883 | 16,055 | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,727 | 16,727 | 0 | 1,661 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Feed and Residual | 5,900 | 5,607 | 5,671 | 5,486 | 5,675 | 5,700 | 25 | 214 |
| Ethanol | 4,857 | 5,028 | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,375 | 5,400 | 25 | 224 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 1,429 | 1,439 | 1,437 | 1,382 | 1,405 | 1,405 | 0 | 23 |
| Exports | 1,777 | 2,747 | 2,472 | 1,661 | 2,100 | 2,100 | 0 | 439 |
| Total Use | 13,963 | 14,821 | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,555 | 14,605 | 50 | 899 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 1,919 | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 2,172 | 2,122 | -50 | 762 |
| Foreign Stocks | 10,142 | 10,294 | 10,858 | 10,536 | 10,411 | 10,408 | -3 | -128 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $3.56 | $4.53 | $6.00 | $6.54 | $4.75 | $4.70 | -$0.05 | -$1.84 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 13.74% | 8.33% | 9.24% | 9.92% | 14.92% | 14.53% | -0.39% | 4.61% |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2023/24 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 11,897 | 48,338 | 7,380 | 29,878 | 47,705 | 7,897 | 12,530 |
| United States | 1,360 | 15,341 | 25 | 5,700 | 12,505 | 2,100 | 2,122 |
| Total Foreign | 10,536 | 32,997 | 7,355 | 24,179 | 35,200 | 5,797 | 10,408 |
| Argentina | 46 | 2,165 | 1 | 346 | 516 | 1,653 | 43 |
| Brazil | 454 | 4,882 | 47 | 2,539 | 3,090 | 2,047 | 246 |
| Russia | 36 | 654 | 2 | 390 | 433 | 220 | 38 |
| South Africa | 103 | 551 | 4 | 256 | 504 | 79 | 76 |
| Ukraine | 110 | 1,161 | 1 | 157 | 197 | 965 | 111 |
| Egypt | 59 | 283 | 335 | 524 | 622 | 0 | 56 |
| E.U. | 288 | 2,401 | 827 | 2,244 | 3,067 | 165 | 284 |
| Japan | 51 | 0 | 610 | 472 | 610 | 0 | 52 |
| Mexico | 177 | 917 | 831 | 1,102 | 1,835 | 2 | 89 |
| Southeast Asia | 119 | 1,219 | 699 | 1,559 | 1,894 | 22 | 121 |
| South Korea | 75 | 4 | 457 | 366 | 459 | 0 | 76 |
| Canada | 64 | 594 | 126 | 413 | 630 | 71 | 83 |
| China | 8,111 | 11,371 | 905 | 8,858 | 12,047 | 1 | 8,341 |
| ROW | 842 | 6,795 | 2,511 | 4,951 | 9,298 | 572 | 795 |
World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels): Current-Previous Month 2023/24
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 22 | -94 | -79 | -105 | -19 | -66 | -53 |
| United States | – | – | – | 25 | 50 | – | -50 |
| Total Foreign | 22 | -94 | -80 | -130 | -68 | -66 | -3 |
| Argentina | 2 | -39 | – | -39 | -39 | – | 2 |
| Brazil | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | 3 |
| Russia | – | – | – | -8 | -8 | 12 | -4 |
| South Africa | 11 | -59 | 4 | -16 | -4 | -35 | -5 |
| Ukraine | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Egypt | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| E.U. | 3 | 35 | -39 | – | – | – | -1 |
| Japan | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mexico | – | -28 | 20 | – | – | – | -8 |
| Southeast Asia | – | 8 | -16 | -12 | -4 | -2 | -2 |
| South Korea | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Canada | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| China | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | 4 | -11 | -48 | -56 | -13 | -41 | 11 |
Cotton
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
May 2024 cotton futures closed down 1.94 cents at 83.37 with a trading range for the day of 83.15 to 85.48 cents. December 2024 cotton futures closed down 0.74 cents at 80.69 cents with a trading range for the day of 80.40 to 81.58 cents. Nearby cotton futures have descended as fast as they rose in January and February. Weak demand remains the dominant concern in cotton markets. It seems unlikely that cotton futures will be able to mount another run back to 90 cents.
USDA Summary
The U.S. 2023/24 cotton supply and demand projections are unchanged this month, with ending stocks forecast at 2.5 million bales or 18 percent of total disappearance. The marketing year price received by upland cotton producers is projected to average 76 cents per pound, a decrease of 1 cent from last month.
The global cotton supply and demand estimates for 2023/24 show higher trade and lower ending stocks compared with last month. World production and consumption are mostly unchanged. World trade for 2023/24 is projected 700,000 bales higher this month to nearly 44 million, as a 1.3-million-bale increase in China’s imports is only partially offset by reductions for Pakistan and Indonesia. Brazil, Australia, and Turkey exports are all projected higher. Ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected down nearly 300,000 bales this month as lower stocks across West Africa, Australia, and Brazil more than offset higher supplies in China.
| 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 Est. | 2023/24 Projected March | 2023/24 Projected April | 2022/23 Change from Previous Month | Change 2023/24-2022/23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | |||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 14.1 | 13.74 | 12.09 | 11.21 | 13.75 | 10.23 | 10.23 | 0 | -3.52 |
| Harvested (Million) | 9.99 | 11.5 | 8.22 | 10.26 | 7.29 | 7.06 | 7.06 | 0 | -0.23 |
| U.S. Average Yield (lb/acre) | 882 | 831 | 853 | 820 | 953 | 822 | 822 | 0 | -131 |
| Supply (Million 480 Pound Bales) | |||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 4.2 | 4.85 | 7.25 | 3.15 | 4.05 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Production | 18.37 | 19.91 | 14.61 | 17.52 | 14.47 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 0 | -2.37 |
| Imports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.01 |
| Total Supply | 22.57 | 24.77 | 21.86 | 20.68 | 18.52 | 16.36 | 16.36 | 0 | -2.16 |
| Use and Stocks (Million 480 Pound Bales) | |||||||||
| Domestic | 2.98 | 2.15 | 2.4 | 2.55 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Exports | 14.84 | 15.51 | 16.35 | 14.48 | 12.77 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 0 | -0.47 |
| Total Use | 17.81 | 17.66 | 18.75 | 17.03 | 14.82 | 14.05 | 14.05 | 0 | -0.77 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 4.85 | 7.25 | 3.15 | 4.05 | 4.25 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0 | -1.75 |
| Foreign Stocks | 75.1 | 89.8 | 83.15 | 72.27 | 78.36 | 80.84 | 80.58 | -0.26 | 2.22 |
| Chinese Stocks | 35.67 | 36.9 | 37.79 | 38.06 | 37.4 | 40.25 | 41.05 | 0.8 | 3.65 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | |||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/lb) | $0.703 | $0.596 | $0.663 | $0.914 | $0.848 | $0.77 | $0.76 | -$0.01 | -$0.09 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 27% | 41% | 16.8% | 24% | 29% | 18% | 18% | 0.00% | -10.88% |
| Chinese Stocks/Use | 90% | 112% | 92.2% | 113% | 100% | 107% | 108% | 0.69% | 8.29% |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) 2023/24 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 82.61 | 112.92 | 43.94 | 112.82 | 43.97 | -0.4 | 83.08 |
| United States | 4.25 | 12.1 | 0.01 | 1.75 | 12.3 | -0.2 | 2.5 |
| Total Foreign | 78.36 | 100.82 | 43.93 | 111.07 | 31.67 | -0.2 | 80.58 |
| Central Asia | 3.36 | 5.24 | 0.03 | 3.99 | 1.34 | 0 | 3.3 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | 0.96 | 4.93 | 0 | 0.1 | 4.46 | 0 | 1.33 |
| Australia | 4.77 | 4.8 | 0 | 0.01 | 6 | -0.2 | 3.76 |
| Brazil | 5.76 | 14.56 | 0.01 | 3.3 | 11.7 | 0 | 5.33 |
| India | 11.82 | 25.5 | 1 | 24 | 2.1 | 0 | 12.22 |
| Mexico | 0.38 | 0.9 | 0.68 | 1.48 | 0.23 | 0 | 0.25 |
| China | 37.4 | 27.5 | 14.2 | 38 | 0.05 | 0 | 41.05 |
| E.U. | 0.39 | 1.05 | 0.55 | 0.57 | 1.03 | 0 | 0.39 |
| Turkey | 2.63 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 0 | 1.43 |
| Pakistan | 1.53 | 6.7 | 3 | 9.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 1.63 |
| Indonesia | 0.36 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.85 | 0.02 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Thailand | 0.14 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.49 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Bangladesh | 1.73 | 0.16 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 0 | 0 | 1.59 |
| Vietnam | 1.05 | 0 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 1.05 |
| ROW | 6.08 | 6.28 | 4.01 | 6.38 | 3.24 | 0.00 | 6.75 |
World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales): 2023/24 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Use | Exports | Loss | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -0.36 | -0.04 | 0.71 | -0.12 | 0.71 | 0.00 | -0.26 |
| United States | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Total Foreign | -0.36 | -0.04 | 0.7 | -0.12 | 0.71 | – | -0.26 |
| Central Asia | -0.08 | – | -0.05 | -0.01 | 0.02 | – | -0.15 |
| Afr. Fr. Zone | -0.23 | – | – | – | -0.12 | – | -0.11 |
| Australia | – | – | – | – | 0.25 | – | -0.25 |
| Brazil | – | – | – | – | 0.5 | – | -0.5 |
| India | – | – | – | – | 0.1 | – | -0.1 |
| Mexico | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 | – | -0.05 |
| China | – | – | 1.3 | 0.5 | – | – | 0.8 |
| E.U. | – | – | – | – | -0.1 | – | 0.1 |
| Turkey | – | – | – | -0.2 | 0.15 | – | 0.05 |
| Pakistan | – | – | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.02 | – | -0.12 |
| Indonesia | – | – | -0.1 | -0.05 | – | – | -0.05 |
| Thailand | – | – | -0.05 | -0.01 | – | – | -0.04 |
| Bangladesh | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Vietnam | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | – | -0.01 | 0.03 | -0.03 | -0.09 | – | 0.16 |
Soybeans
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
May 2024 soybean futures were down 5 ½ cents for the day closing at $11.59 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $11.51 to $11.66 ¼. November 2024 soybean futures closed down 5 cents at $11.64 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $11.56 to $11.70 ½. Year-over-year global soybean stocks are projected up 475 million bushels. Nearby futures prices appear to be settling into a trading range of $11.40 to $12.40.
USDA Summary
The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 includes lower imports, residual, and exports, and higher ending stocks. Soybean trade is reduced on pace to date and expectations for future shipments. With the trade changes and slightly lower residual, soybean ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively.
Global 2023/24 soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, exports, crush, and nearly unchanged ending stocks. Soybean production is lowered mainly for South Africa on drought conditions during the season, which negatively impacted yield potential. Partly offsetting is higher production for Paraguay, up 7 million bushels to 386 million.
Global soybean exports are lowered 18 million bushels to 6.36 billion mainly on lower exports for the United States and South Africa partly offset by higher shipments for Paraguay. Imports are lowered for Indonesia, Russia, Algeria, and the United States, but raised for the EU. Global soybean ending stocks are nearly unchanged with higher stocks for the United States offset by lower stocks for Canada, Iran, and Russia.
| 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 Est. | 2023/24 Projected March | 2023/24 Projected April | 2023/24 Change from Previous Month | Change 2023/24-2022/23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 76.1 | 83.4 | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 83.6 | 0.0 | -3.9 |
| Harvested (Million) | 74.9 | 82.6 | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.4 | 82.4 | 0.0 | -3.8 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 47.4 | 51.0 | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 50.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 909 | 525 | 257 | 274 | 264 | 264 | 0 | -10 |
| Production | 3,552 | 4,216 | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,165 | 4,165 | 0 | -105 |
| Imports | 15 | 20 | 16 | 25 | 30 | 25 | -5 | 0 |
| Total Supply | 4,476 | 4,761 | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,459 | 4,454 | -5 | -115 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Crushing | 2,165 | 2,141 | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,300 | 2,300 | 0 | 88 |
| Exports | 1,679 | 2,266 | 2,152 | 1,992 | 1,720 | 1,700 | -20 | -292 |
| Seed and Residual | 108 | 97 | 107 | 101 | 124 | 113 | -11 | 12 |
| Total Use | 3,952 | 4,504 | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,144 | 4,114 | -30 | -191 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 525 | 257 | 274 | 264 | 315 | 340 | 25 | 76 |
| Foreign Stocks | 3,034 | 3,430 | 3,146 | 3,458 | 3,884 | 3,857 | -27 | 399 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Average Season Price ($/Bu) | $8.57 | $10.80 | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.65 | $12.55 | -$0.10 | -$1.65 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 13.28% | 5.71% | 6.14% | 6.13% | 7.60% | 8.26% | 0.66% | 2% |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2023/2024 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 3,723 | 14,577 | 6,259 | 12,053 | 14,002 | 6,359 | 4,197 |
| United States | 264 | 4,165 | 25 | 2,300 | 2,414 | 1,700 | 340 |
| Total Foreign | 3,458 | 10,412 | 6,234 | 9,753 | 11,589 | 4,659 | 3,857 |
| Argentina | 632 | 1,837 | 224 | 1,304 | 1,571 | 169 | 954 |
| Brazil | 1,372 | 5,695 | 17 | 1,947 | 2,085 | 3,785 | 1,214 |
| Paraguay | 6 | 386 | 1 | 129 | 134 | 239 | 20 |
| China | 1,188 | 766 | 3,858 | 3,601 | 4,428 | 4 | 1,381 |
| E.U. | 40 | 109 | 525 | 547 | 611 | 11 | 54 |
| S.E. Asia | 25 | 17 | 343 | 169 | 350 | 0 | 35 |
| Mexico | 8 | 5 | 235 | 238 | 240 | 0 | 8 |
| ROW | 186 | 1,597 | 1,030 | 1,817 | 2,170 | 451 | 191 |
World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2023/2024 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Crush | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -31 | -4 | -17 | -6 | -30 | -20 | -2 |
| United States | – | – | -5 | – | -10 | -20 | 25 |
| Total Foreign | -31 | -5 | -11 | -6 | -20 | 0 | -27 |
| Argentina | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Paraguay | – | 7 | – | – | – | 7 | – |
| China | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| E.U. | -6 | -3 | 18 | – | 5 | – | 5 |
| S.E. Asia | – | – | -9 | – | -9 | – | – |
| Mexico | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | -25 | -9 | -21 | -6 | -15 | -8 | -32 |
Wheat
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
May 2024 wheat futures closed down 6 ¾ cents at $5.51 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $5.48 ¼ to $5.59 ¾. July 2024 wheat futures closed 7 ¼ cents for the day at $5.66 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $5.63 to $5.75. Beneficial growing conditions across most of the US winter wheat producing areas are contributing to downward price pressure. This is despite global wheat ending stocks projected to be significantly lower than the previous marketing year. Next month the USDA will release initial WASDE estimates for the 2024/25 marketing year.
USDA Summary
This month’s supply and demand outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are tightened with a reduction in projected imports by 5 million bushels to 140 million on a slower-than-expected import pace, primarily for Hard Red Winter. Domestic consumption is forecast down on lower-than-expected implied feed and residual use in the second and third quarters based on the latest NASS Grain Stocks report. As a result, annual feed and residual use is lowered 30 million bushels to 90 million. Projected 2023/24 ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10.
The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for larger supplies, consumption, and exports and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are raised 22 million bushels to 38.89 billion on increased production estimates for the EU, Moldova, and Pakistan. The world consumption forecast is increased 40 million bushels to 29.399 billion. Food, Seed, and Industrial use in India is increased 73 million bushels this month to 3.902 billion. The latest monthly stocks reports issued by the Food Corporation of India shows continued open market sales as the Government of India attempts to limit food price inflation ahead of elections, which begin later this month. Global feed and residual use is forecast lower on reductions for Russia and the United States that are only partly offset by increased use for the EU.
Projected 2023/24 global trade is raised 48 million bushels to 7.845 billion, mostly on higher export forecasts for Russia and Ukraine that are only partly offset by a reduction for the European Union. Russia’s export forecast is raised 37 million bushels to 1.911 billion, as shipments have continued at a robust pace. Ukraine exports are raised, up 55 million bushels to 643 million as competitive prices and expanded operating hours at the ports of Odessa this year allow trade to increase. EU exports, however, are reduced 73 million bushels to 1.268 billion as competition from the Black Sea has restrained their exports to date. Projected 2023/24 world ending stocks are down 22 million bushels to 9.491 billion as lower stocks for India and Ukraine are only partly offset by increases for Algeria and the EU. If realized, global stocks for 2023/24 would be five percent below last year and the lowest since 2015/16.
| 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 Est. | 2023/24 Projected March | 2023/24 Projected April | 2023/24 Change from Previous Month | Change 2023/24-2022/23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield | ||||||||
| Planted (Million) | 45.5 | 44.5 | 46.7 | 45.8 | 49.6 | 49.6 | 0 | 3.8 |
| Harvested (Million) | 37.4 | 36.8 | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.3 | 37.3 | 0 | 1.8 |
| U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) | 51.7 | 49.7 | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.6 | 48.6 | 0 | 2.1 |
| Supply (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Beg. Stocks | 1,080 | 1,028 | 845 | 674 | 570 | 570 | 0 | -104 |
| Production | 1,932 | 1,828 | 1,646 | 1,650 | 1,812 | 1,812 | 0 | 162 |
| Imports | 104 | 100 | 96 | 122 | 145 | 140 | -5 | 18 |
| Total Supply | 3,116 | 2,956 | 2,588 | 2,446 | 2,527 | 2,522 | -5 | 76 |
| Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) | ||||||||
| Food | 962 | 961 | 971 | 973 | 960 | 960 | 0 | -13 |
| Seed | 62 | 64 | 58 | 68 | 64 | 64 | 0 | -4 |
| Feed | 95 | 93 | 88 | 77 | 120 | 90 | -30 | 13 |
| Exports | 969 | 994 | 796 | 759 | 710 | 710 | 0 | -49 |
| Total Use | 2,087 | 2,111 | 1,913 | 1,876 | 1,854 | 1,824 | -30 | -52 |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | 1,028 | 845 | 674 | 570 | 673 | 698 | 25 | 128 |
| Foreign Stocks | 9,879 | 9,676 | 9,345 | 9,388 | 8,838 | 8,792 | -46 | -596 |
| Price and Stocks to Use Ratio | ||||||||
| U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) | $4.58 | $5.05 | $7.63 | $8.83 | $7.15 | $7.10 | -$0.05 | -$1.73 |
| U.S. Stocks/Use | 49.26% | 40.03% | 35.23% | 31.89% | 36.30% | 38.27% | 1.97% | 6.37% |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2023-24 Current Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 9,958 | 28,931 | 7,802 | 5,928 | 29,399 | 7,844 | 9,490 |
| United States | 570 | 1,812 | 140 | 90 | 1,114 | 710 | 697 |
| Total Foreign | 9,388 | 27,119 | 7,662 | 5,839 | 28,285 | 7,134 | 8,792 |
| Argentina | 150 | 584 | 2 | 7 | 246 | 367 | 122 |
| Australia | 161 | 955 | 7 | 129 | 257 | 753 | 113 |
| Canada | 129 | 1,174 | 22 | 129 | 320 | 882 | 124 |
| European Union | 589 | 4,929 | 496 | 1,764 | 4,134 | 1,268 | 613 |
| Russia | 538 | 3,362 | 11 | 698 | 1,543 | 1,911 | 457 |
| Ukraine | 107 | 860 | 3 | 92 | 268 | 643 | 58 |
| Bangladesh | 30 | 40 | 213 | 9 | 248 | 0 | 36 |
| Brazil | 66 | 298 | 209 | 26 | 445 | 92 | 37 |
| China | 5,101 | 5,019 | 404 | 1,360 | 5,640 | 33 | 4,851 |
| Japan | 42 | 42 | 195 | 24 | 226 | 11 | 42 |
| N. Africa | 454 | 601 | 1,106 | 64 | 1,725 | 48 | 388 |
| Nigeria | 13 | 4 | 176 | 0 | 169 | 13 | 12 |
| Sel. Mideast | 432 | 763 | 752 | 129 | 1,464 | 32 | 452 |
| Southeast Asia | 132 | 0 | 1,010 | 299 | 944 | 41 | 157 |
| India | 349 | 4,062 | 4 | 248 | 4,151 | 11 | 254 |
| Kazakhstan | 120 | 445 | 92 | 48 | 230 | 349 | 78 |
| United Kingdom | 92 | 514 | 88 | 268 | 570 | 29 | 96 |
| ROW | 884 | 3,465 | 2,870 | 545 | 5,705 | 650 | 904 |
World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels): 2023/2024 Current-Previous Month
| Country / Region | Beginning Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic Feed | Domestic Total | Exports | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | -4 | 24 | 42 | -26 | 41 | 49 | -21 |
| United States | – | – | -5 | -30 | -30 | – | 25 |
| Total Foreign | -4 | 24 | 46 | 4 | 71 | 49 | -46 |
| Argentina | – | – | – | – | – | -18 | 18 |
| Australia | – | – | – | – | – | 18 | -18 |
| Canada | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| European Union | -18 | 18 | 18 | 37 | 37 | -73 | 56 |
| Russia | – | – | – | -37 | -37 | 37 | – |
| Ukraine | -22 | – | – | -7 | -15 | 55 | -62 |
| Bangladesh | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brazil | -1 | – | 4 | -4 | -4 | 11 | -4 |
| China | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Japan | – | 1 | – | – | – | – | 1 |
| N. Africa | 32 | -13 | 26 | – | -4 | 22 | 26 |
| Nigeria | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sel. Mideast | – | – | -42 | – | -7 | – | -35 |
| Southeast Asia | 1 | – | 22 | 15 | 18 | – | 5 |
| India | – | – | -5 | – | 72 | – | -77 |
| Kazakhstan | – | – | – | – | – | -18 | 18 |
| United Kingdom | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROW | 3 | 18 | 24 | – | 10 | 16 | 27 |
Profitability Update
2023 Estimated Returns – Non-Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of the April 11, 2024, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, non-irrigated yields are estimated average yields for Tennessee for the 2023 crop. Prices used for grain and cotton are based on current Tennessee cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2023 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Land cost was estimated as a cash rent at the USDA NASS state average of $113 per acre. Substantial variation in land costs exist in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2023 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses returns over specified costs for corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing a -$130, $77, $10, and -$7 per acre net returns. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. Producers that priced production at higher market prices earlier in 2023 may have higher net returns as prices have declined since the summer. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will also vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield – Crop Production Report (Tennessee) | 1,237 | 51 | 173 | 80 /50 |
| Current Price (as of 4/11/2024) | $0.83 | $11.62 | $4.18 | $5.38/$11.62 |
| Revenue | $1,025 | $593 | $723 | $1,011 |
| Variable Expenses | $640 | $340 | $595 | $660 |
| Returns Over Variable | $385 | $253 | $128 | $351 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $113 | $113 | $113 | $113 |
| Returns Over Variable and Land Costs | $272 | $140 | $15 | $238 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $195 | $130 | $145 | $245 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | $77 | $10 | ($130) | ($7) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.77 | $11.43 | $4.93 | $6.36/$10.18 |
2023 Estimated Returns – Irrigated
The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of the April 11, 2024, USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. For the table below, irrigated yields were estimated as: 240 bushels per acre for corn, 65 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, 1,450 pounds per acre cotton, and 95 bushels of wheat and 60 bushels of soybeans for Double Crop Wheat/Soybeans. Prices used for grain and cotton sales are based on current Tennessee cash prices provided by USDA AMS. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2023 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. Irrigation fixed costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and irrigation systems. Land cost was estimated as cash rent of $197/acre (USDA NASS state average for Tennessee). Substantial variation in land costs exist in Tennessee. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2023 UT Crop Budgets.
Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat/soybeans are showing returns of -$224, -$56, -$92, and -$174 per acre net returns. Producers that priced production at higher market prices earlier in 2023 may have higher net returns as prices have declined since the start of the year. Additionally, producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved net returns over specified costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems.
Please contact your local County Extension office or Extension Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.
| Cotton | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat/Soybeans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated Yield (lb or bu) | 1,450 | 65 | 240 | 95/60 |
| Current Price (as of 4/11/2024) | $0.83 | $11.62 | $4.18 | $5.38/$11.62 |
| Revenue | $1,201 | $755 | $1,003 | $1,208 |
| Variable Expenses (includes energy cost) | $760 | $410 | $780 | $840 |
| Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre | $100 | $100 | $100 | $100 |
| Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR Costs | $341 | $245 | $123 | $268 |
| Land Costs (Cash Rent – NASS State Average) | $197 | $197 | $197 | $197 |
| Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed Cost and Land Costs | $144 | $48 | ($74) | $71 |
| Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor) | $200 | $140 | $150 | $245 |
| Returns Over Specified Costs | ($56) | ($92) | ($224) | ($174) |
| Breakeven Price at Estimated Yield and Specified Cost | $0.87 | $13.03 | $5.11 | $7.68/$12.56 |