by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
August 22, 2025
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle trade $2 to $3 higher this week compared to a week ago. Prices in the South were not well established but asking prices were close to $240 while dressed prices were mainly $385 to $387.
The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $244.92 live, up $2.28 compared to a week ago and $386.20 dressed up $3.30 compared to last week. A year ago, prices were $185.73 live and $293.94 dressed.
The finished cattle market continues to push higher, and it is showing no signs of retreat. One interesting comparison is that the price of a finished steer today is currently higher than the CME feeder cattle index just 11 months ago. Thus, a 1,450 pound steer would be valued between $3,500 and $3,600 per head while an 800 pound steer last September had a value less than $2,000 per head. This rapid ascension of prices could be comparable to a space shuttle taking off. The question will be if it be like Apollo 11 that successfully made it to the moon, or if it will end up like the SpaceX Starships that have exploded shortly after takeoff. The indicators point more to Apollo 11 success than SpaceX explosions.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $406.87 down $0.99 from Thursday and up $7.06 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $383.85 up $0.25 from Thursday and up $15.74 from a week ago. The Choice Select spread was $23.02 compared to $31.70 a week ago.
Wholesale boxed beef prices did not slow their August surge this week. It has been said in this report that there would be support in the beef market from Labor Day purchases, and some of the increasing price the past several weeks is certainly due to the last summer grilling holiday of the year. However, with only one week to go before Labor Day weekend kicks off, it is difficult to say all of the strength in the beef market is due to consumers making beef purchases solely for Labor Day. In fact, strong beef demand in general is the most likely reason beef prices continue to push higher at the wholesale level and thus the retail level. There is always a supply side and a demand side to the story. The supply of cattle is low relative to previous years, and this has reduced beef production modestly. The smaller cattle supply has had more impact on cattle prices increasing than on beef prices increasing since beef production is still strong. The main instigator of higher beef prices is demand. What all is fueling that demand can be debated, but the fact demand is strong is not debatable.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction reports, steer prices were $6 to $9 higher compared to last week while heifer prices were $3 to $7 higher than a week ago. Slaughter cow prices were $1 to $3 lower than the previous week while bull prices were $2 to $4 lower compared to a week ago. Is it wonderment? Is it amazement? Is it out of this world? Is it complete lunacy? Is it the best time ever? Is it the riskiest time? Is it difficult to comprehend? Is it understandable? The questions could keep rolling, but these are certainly being asked by someone in the cattle business. The price of calves and feeder cattle continue to push higher as does feeder cattle futures. The market is being led by beef demand, but it is also being supported by a lack of cattle herd expansion. Expansion is likely to begin this fall with the weaning of the spring born calf crop. Some producers will decide to sell most if not all of their heifers in order to capitalize on strong calf prices. Alternatively, many in the industry will retain more heifers than average and attempt to increase the quantity of their breeding females. Even with these expectations, none of these females will have a marketable calf until the fall of 2027. There will certainly be some folks who will have bred a few females this summer that will result in marketable calves in 2026, but this is unlikely to change the price landscape much in 2026. With that in mind, decisions made this fall related to heifer retention would imply at least two more years of strong calf and feeder cattle prices. Will two more years of strong prices materialize? Speaking from a probability standpoint, the answer is yes, but there are numerous circumstances that can derail even the strongest of markets. Staying with what is most probable, two strong years of prices would then be expected to be followed by a declining market. However, prices would still be expected to be historically strong. This story will be slow to develop, but it will develop. How right or wrong these expectations are will come with time.
The August cattle on feed report for feedlots with a 1000 head or more capacity indicated cattle and calves on feed as of August 1, 2025 totaled 10.92 million head, down 1.6% compared to a year ago, with the pre-report estimate average expecting a decrease of 1.9%. July placements in feedlots totaled 1.60 million head, down 6.1% from a year ago with the pre-report estimate average expecting placements down 8.8%. July marketing’s totaled 1.75 million head down 5.7% from 2024 with pre-report estimates expecting marketings down 5.9%. Placements on feed by weight: under 700 pounds down 10.7%, 700 to 899 pounds down 3.8%, 900 pounds and over down 1.8%.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
What is this animal worth? What is a certain type of animals worth? What is this group of animals worth? The variations of this question could continue. Many people want to know what the value is of the cattle they have, the value of some piece of farm machinery, or the value of any number of things. Some want to know the value, because they want to sell the said “thing.” Others want to know the value, because they just want to feel good about having something valuable. The true value of something is what someone is willing to pay. Nearly every person that looks at something for sale places a different value on it. For instance, if a neighbor is selling a truck, one person may think it is overpriced while another person buys it, because they think it is worth a lot more than they are paying. The selling side always seems to be the most challenging in that a person can always lower a price, but overpricing something may mean having to wait a long time before someone is willing to pay such a price.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –August $239.95 +1.30; October $237.88 +3.15; December $239.15 +2.75; Feeder cattle –August $360.35 +3.98; September $362.68 +4.65; October $362.50 +4.40; November $360.85 +4.20; September corn closed at $3.88 up 1 cent from Thursday.