by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
February 20, 2026
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle trade was not well established at the time of this writing. Bid prices on a live basis were mainly $245 to $247 while dressed price bids were mainly $385 to $388.
The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $241.01 live, up $0.01 compared to a week ago and $382 dressed with no comparison to a week ago. A year ago, prices were $199.61 live and $315.28 dressed.
Packers were making bids, but cattle feeders were not as willing to provide ask prices. It was almost as if cattle feeders were asking themselves, “How much can we get out of packers this week?” It simply goes to show how much leverage the cattle feeder has relative to the packer. Packers were making bids on cattle that were steady with a week ago prices, but it was clear the feedlots wanted a little more. The ability to stretch the packer a little further is valuable information to the cattle feeder in that more upside potential may be possible the following week. There is no doubt there are parties that are frustrated with slow trade, which may be one reason for formula trade, but cash trade is still necessary in this market.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $366.67 up $1.50 from Thursday and up $2.28 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $361.05 up $1.26 from Thursday and down $2.24 from last week. The Choice Select spread was $5.62 compared to $1.10 a three weeks ago.
Since October, the Choice cutout price has traded in a narrow range of only $30 from $349 to $379 per hundredweight and this trend appears it will continue for a little longer. Based on primal cuts, the brisket has traded in $28 range over the same time period while the short plate has had a $35 per hundredweight price range. Similarly, the round, chuck and flank have all traded in a $48 to $58 range over the past five months. The rib has been the outlier in that it has traded in a $171 range from $470 to $641 per hundredweight and currently sits towards the bottom of this range. The range in rib primal prices is to be expected given the typically strong demand for prime rib during the Christmas season and then some of the weakest demand during the winter months. At this point in the year, the end meats are providing the support for beef values, but the loin and the rib will begin to demonstrate their dominance in the market once warmer weather arrives. The loin has been creeping higher since Christmas, but it will gain more interest in April.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction market average prices, steer prices were $9 to $14 higher than last week, while heifer prices were $9 to $15 higher than the previous week. Slaughter cow prices were $4 to $6 higher this week compared to a week ago while slaughter bull prices were steady compared to last week. There is little doubt grass cattle buyers are out in full force as lightweight calf prices are increasing at a rapid pace. This type of buying is likely to persist the next six to eight weeks as producers look to secure calves to graze through the spring and summer months. There are 500-pound steer calves bringing close to $2,500 per head straight off the cow with some preconditioned 5-weight cattle being valued near $3,000 per head. The challenge with paying such high prices for these calves is that 50,000 pound load lots of 8 and 9-weight cattle are receiving $3,000 to $3,200 per head in the same market. A $500 margin to put 300 pounds on a calf is a risky proposition as it would likely take the profits of ten or more calves to make up for the loss of one calf with such high purchase prices. The cow-calf producer is sitting in the driver’s seat and has the most valuable animal in the market today. The cow-calf producer should still be considering the value of gain in today’s market as putting 50 to 100 more pounds of gain on a calf may have tremendous value over the next several weeks. This statement is more applicable to those selling cattle weighing less than 525 pounds, but could result in a positive return for others as well. Buyers of these calves should sharpen their pencil more so than what they have had to do the past couple of years. The past couple of years have been good to margin operators, but there is no way to hedge a strong profit on cattle purchased today, and there is no guarantee yearling cattle prices will continue pushing higher. Feeder cattle futures are chasing the feeder cattle index and showing no signs of deferred contracts expanding the price to something higher than today.
The February cattle on feed report for feedlots with a 1000 head or more capacity indicated cattle and calves on feed as of February 1, 2026 totaled 11.51 million head, down 1.8% compared to a year ago, with the pre-report estimate average expecting a decrease of 1.6%. January placements in feedlots totaled 1.74 million head, down 4.7% from a year ago with the pre-report estimate average expecting placements down 4.0%. January marketing’s totaled 1.63 million head down 13.0% from 2025 with pre-report estimates expecting marketings down 13.0%. Placements on feed by weight: under 700 pounds down 4.6%, 700 to 899 pounds down 5.8%, 900 pounds and over no change.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
When will cattle producers begin retaining heifers and grow the beef herd? Why are cattle producers not retaining more heifers to grow the beef herd? There are several other similar questions that have been asked. Is it development taking all the land? Is it the aging farmer? Are heifer prices so high that producers would rather take the bird in hand rather than the two in the bush? All of these reasons could certainly be influencing the decision to sell or retain heifers to grow the beef cattle herd. However, the answer seems easier than that. The primary reason cattle producers have not been retaining heifers the past couple of years is due to drought being prevalent in cattle producing country during weaning. Cattle producers experiencing drought tend to respond to environmental conditions compared to economic conditions when they have recently been forced to make decisions due to environmental conditions. Thus, capitalizing on the high value of heifers today is a better option than risking drought induced sales later.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –February $246.58 -0.93; April $242.00 -1.43; June $237.53 -1.35; Feeder cattle –March $368.03 -2.25; April $365.05 -2.60; May $361.00 -2.58; August $360.70 -2.63; March corn closed at $4.28 up 2 cents from Thursday.