by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
September 12, 2025
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle traded $3 to $5 lower this week compared to a week ago. Prices in the South were mainly $237 to $240 while dressed prices were mainly $375 to $378.
The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $239.26 live, down $3.33 compared to a week ago and $376.14 dressed down $6.61 compared to last week. A year ago, prices were $180.72 live and $292.82 dressed.
Cattle feeders allowed fear to get the best of them this week as many of them were willing sellers early in the week as the October live cattle futures contract price declined more than $5 on Tuesday. The market recovered $2 of that decline on Wednesday and Thursday before coming under some pressure on Friday. Despite the futures price movement, cattle feeders must remember they have the leverage in today’s market. The willingness to move cattle on Tuesday following the futures decline probably resulted in many cattle feeders leaving a couple of dollars on the table. At the same time, packers will keep beating the drum of what they paid this week to try to keep prices suppressed.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $400.49 down $0.30 from Thursday and down $10.56 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $389.39 down $1.68 from Thursday and down $11.12 from a week ago. The Choice Select spread was $22.22 compared to $24.07 a week ago.
The price data demonstrates that wholesale beef prices declined the past couple of weeks, but a wholesale price of $4 per pound is still a strong price for Choice beef. Consumers continue to demonstrate strong demand for high quality beef while the strength in Select grade beef prices has more to do with the smaller quantity of such beef being available as cattle producers continue to increase the quantity of beef grading Choice or higher. With that being said, the market is moving into a time period in which beef does not tend to be at the forefront of the meat market. As summer ends and fall begins, consumers do not tend to place as much emphasis on beef as grilling tends to slow and consumers begin purchasing things with words like “pumpkin” and “spice”, “apple” and “cider”, “frosted” and “latte”, and other random words this author does not understand! Regardless, interest in beef tends to fade until the end of the year holiday season. This means beef demand in general is the only thing that can support prices the next few months.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction reports, steer prices were steady to $2 lower compared to last week while heifer prices were $1 to $4 lower than a week ago. Slaughter cow prices were $1 to $4 lower compared to the previous week while bull prices were $2 to $3 lower compared to a week ago. This is the first week in which a true softness was evident in the cattle market in several months. The cattle price trend the past 12 months has been one of increasing prices. This trend has of course had some small declines that were all short lived to say the least. September feeder cattle futures peaked on August 27th and have failed to make any type of run back to that peak. Does this mean the softer market is here to stay, or is this simply a blip on the radar similar to some of the other blips the market has seen the past 12 months? The market will have to answer that question over the next several weeks and months, but one would have to perceive that cattle prices cannot continue increasing at the rapid rate they have the past year. The best-case scenario for many cattle market participants would be for the price to plateau while the alternative is a reversal in prices to a lower level. It would not be wise to say the market has hit the top at this point as tighter feeder cattle supplies are still ahead of the market, but at the same time, it would be unwise to not prepare for a softening of prices. As it relates to calf and feeder cattle markets, the spring born calves have already started making their way to the market. The pace of those calves making their way to market will increase the next several weeks as producers continue weaning the calf crop. This increase in bawling calves coming to market could put pressure on prices for that class of cattle, which would fall within seasonal tendencies, but this market has not been following many seasonal aspects. The slaughter cow market falls in the same category as bawling calves in that prices tend to slip this time of year. However, the demand for lean grinding beef will continue to support this class of cattle.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
A question was asked this week concerning USDA’s farm income forecast for 2025. This question was more general as it related to farm income for all sectors of agriculture. However, this brought the thought of tax implications for cattle producers in 2025. Many cattle operations will experience the strongest profits in operational history, which means many cattle producers will face income tax obligations they have never experienced. Now is the time to begin planning how these increased tax obligations will be handled. Some producers will be able to mitigate the expected tax burden through capital purchases that should contribute to future profitability of the operation. Others, may benefit from shorter term purchase decisions. Some alternatives may include improving perimeter and cross fences, renovating a portion of pastures, upgrading working facilities, replacing equipment that has outlived its useful life, or any number of other purchase decisions. The one thing to avoid is spending money just to spend money!
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –October $229.98 -2.30; December $231.93 -2.20; February $233.23 -2.03; Feeder cattle –September $350.40 -4.83; October $345.80 -6.55; November $343.25 -7.23; January $337.18 -7.33; September corn closed at $3.99 no change from Thursday.