by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
November 14, 2025
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle traded $3 lower this week compared to a week ago on a live basis. Prices on a live basis were mainly $225 to $228 while dressed prices were mainly $350 to $351.
The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $225.35 live, down $3.62 compared to a week ago and $350.95 dressed down $7.38 compared to last week. A year ago, prices were $184.74 live and $290.87 dressed.
Cattle feeders continued to lose ground on the marketing price, but they are making up some of that ground on the purchase of feeder cattle. One would think the lower prices of finished cattle are really contributing to a positive margin for packers, but there is not much change there either. It is difficult to predict in this volatile environment the direction finished cattle are heading from a price standpoint. The fundamentals would suggest the market will continue to be supported while futures traders are wandering in a desolate wasteland trying to capture a profit in a zero-sum game. Participants are encouraged to watch the market closely, but the expectation will be for support rather than for continually lower prices.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $370.68 down $2.89 from Thursday and down $6.75 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $354.53 down $0.50 from Thursday and down $7.67 from a week ago. The Choice Select spread was $16.15 compared to $15.23 a week ago.
Wholesale beef prices were lower this week demonstrating all the market power the four major packers hold in the marketplace! (That was supposed to be sarcastic, but voice inflections do not carry well in written verse.) The big news this week was President Trump ordering the Department of Justice to investigate the beef packing industry for collusion and price fixing. It is important to note this is not the first time this has happened. It is difficult to understand why the packing industry would accept large losses in the beef sector if they hold so much control on the purchase price of cattle and the selling price of wholesale beef. Why is the DOJ not investigating the hotel industry where there are at most six major players, the automobile industry where there are maybe five or six primary players. The farm equipment industry is also concentrated. Maybe the DOJ should be investigating the consumer goods corporations of P&G, Unilever, Nestle’, Johnson & Johnson, and Henkel. In no way is this advocating for such a move. It is simply to point out how silly this is.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction reports, steer prices were steady to $5 lower compared to last week while heifer prices were steady to $6 lower compared to a week ago. Slaughter cow prices were $2 to $4 lower compared to the previous week while bull prices were steady to $2 lower compared to a week ago. Developing a trend this week was difficult as trends across markets were not consistent. Some markets experienced week-over-week gains on some classes of animals while other markets had lower prices on the same class of animal. This presents itself similar to the confusion in the futures market. The most noteworthy aspect of the futures market that has persisted recently is the extremely positive basis for both feeder cattle and finished cattle. The CME feeder cattle index value demonstrates a positive basis of more than $7 per hundredweight compared to the November feeder cattle futures. The expectation is for convergence over the next couple of weeks, but there is more of an uphill battle when moving toward the January feeder cattle contract that is trading approximately $25 per hundredweight lower than the index. The expectation at this time is that the futures market will converge more towards the cash price of feeder cattle than the cash price declining. This situation is exactly the opposite of what feeder cattle producers experienced the past 12 months. The current situation makes it extremely difficult to manage price risk with futures, options, and LRP given the magnitude of the positive basis. As an example, if a person hedged the sale of feeder cattle in March, the March contract is $32 lower than the cash price. If the cash price stays the same and futures increase, if both increase and futures increase with a larger magnitude, or both decrease and futures decrease at a smaller magnitude then the hedge will not perform well. The hard truth is any of these three alternatives are more likely than the basis staying the same or strengthening from now until the expiration of the futures contract.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
At speaking engagement this week, a question was asked concerning the closure of the Mexican border to cattle imports and how that impacts cattle markets. From a producer standpoint, producers who do not depend on Mexican cattle should be benefitting from fewer cattle in the marketplace. In essence, fewer cattle should be supportive of prices. Alternatively, the closure of the border to cattle imports has a large negative impact on producers who typically purchase the Mexican calves. Most of these producers are in close proximity to Mexico and those cattle make up a large percentage of the total cattle on many of those operations. Thus, this closure results in those producers having to source cattle elsewhere or not at all. Maybe worse than the difficulties of sourcing cattle is being forced to purchase cattle that are not accustomed to the southern border climatic conditions. This is an ever-evolving situation with the public not knowing a timeline for potential reopening of the border.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –December $219.15 +0.15; February $219.53 +0.58; April $219.58 +0.98; Feeder cattle –November $338.68 +1.68; January $320.55 +2.10; March $313.35 +1.58; April $311.08 +1.73; December corn closed at $4.30 down 11 cents from Thursday.