by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
November 21, 2025
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle traded $7 to $8 lower this week compared to a week ago on a live basis. Prices on a live basis ranged from $212 to $224 while dressed prices were mainly $342 to $345.
The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $217.57 live, down $7.78 compared to a week ago and $343.41 dressed down $7.54 compared to last week. A year ago, prices were $185.63 live and $290.26 dressed.
The tremendous amount of uncertainty in live cattle futures has bled into the cash market resulting in an extremely wide price range for finished cattle. The finished cattle market is headed in the wrong direction for the time of year as the impending holiday season generally provides support for both finished cattle and boxed beef prices. Consumers tend to lean towards beef for holiday gatherings to end the year, which results in support for beef prices. This in turn provides support for finished cattle, but cattle prices are failing to find that support at this point. Is there time for the tide to turn? The answer is potentially, but it is becoming less likely since the market is less than five weeks from Christmas.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $371.61 up $0.33 from Thursday and up $0.93 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $358.42 up $4.24 from Thursday and up $3.89 from a week ago. The Choice Select spread was $13.19 compared to $16.15 a week ago.
Beef prices have yet to decline despite President Trump’s desire for beef prices to decline. It is understood that little to no extra beef imports are available at the retail level at this time so more time will be necessary to secure the grinding beef the President is calling on to reduce beef prices. Despite the anticipation of more imported beef, it is unlikely to reduce beef prices to a degree that it will actually influence consumers disposable income. It seems like the math has been stated in these comments in past weeks, but it never hurts to remind readers of the commonsense approach. Per capita beef availability is less than 60 pounds per person in the United States. If a family of four consumes 60 pounds per person of ground beef, then that is a total of 240 pounds of ground beef. It is unlikely the ploy to reduce beef prices will do much, but even if it reduced ground beef prices by $1 per pound then that is only a $240 savings for a family of four over an entire year. It is easy to see this is a nonstarter for several reasons.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction reports, steer prices were unevenly steady compared to last week while heifer prices were $1 to $2 higher compared to a week ago. Slaughter cow prices were unevenly steady compared to the previous week while bull prices were steady to $1 lower compared to a week ago. The political rhetoric in Washington has not impacted the calf market as much as it has impacted the feeder cattle market, but both have taken a swift blow to the rear. The biggest blow has been to feeder cattle futures where the January feeder cattle contract has moved $65 per hundredweight lower the past five weeks while the CME feeder cattle index, which is a seven-day weighted rolling average of cash prices representing an 800 pound steer, has only declined $35 per hundredweight over the same time period. The struggle for understanding is that 550 pound calf prices have only declined $6 to $8 per hundredweight over the same time period. The reason this is tough to understand is because the calf value has only declined $44 per head while the yearling cattle value has declined $280 per head. Thus, the stocker and backgrounder have continued to bid for these lightweight cattle despite their margins tightening in such a manner there is little to no wiggle room. This also means the stocker and backgrounding operations are counting on feeder cattle prices to reverse course and increase moving into 2026. It is difficult to speak against this logic, because the fundamentals of the market continue to support calf and feeder cattle prices. There should be further support for these animals when heifer retention begins to keep heifers from entering the feedlot. From the cow-calf producer standpoint, prices remain strong and profitable, but it would appear weaning and backgrounding home-raised cattle is not paying off for those who weaned and backgrounded through the summer and fall months. This will be an ever-evolving story, which means readers should stay tuned.
The November cattle on feed report for feedlots with a 1000 head or more capacity indicated cattle and calves on feed as of November 1, 2025 totaled 11.71 million head, down 2.2% compared to a year ago, with the pre-report estimate average expecting a decrease of 2.3%. October placements in feedlots totaled 2.04 million head, down 10.0% from a year ago with the pre-report estimate average expecting placements down 8.4%. October marketing’s totaled 1.70 million head down 8.0% from 2024 with pre-report estimates expecting marketings down 7.7%. Placements on feed by weight: under 700 pounds down 11.8%, 700 to 899 pounds down 9.5%, 900 pounds and over down 5.2%.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
A couple of comments concerning the packing industry were made at a meeting this week. These comments resulted in a good discussion with several questions concerning beef prices and more specifically ground beef prices. President Trump stated the need of reducing beef prices. Whether stated or not stated, he was speaking towards the price of ground beef, and he has been making decisions regarding lowering import tariff rates on beef to increase the availability of lean grinding beef. There are also discussions concerning the Mexican border being reopened to cattle imports. This information has done little to reduce beef prices, but it has effectively reduced cattle prices. However, back to the point of ground beef prices, the discussion at the meeting was that ground beef price is less than the cost of production for that ground beef. In this instance, ground beef may be acting as a loss leader in the meat case in order to bring customers in the doors so other profitable items will be purchased. This may be a widely used marketing scheme.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –December $214.45 -0.28; February $214.78 -0.63; April $215.15 -0.43; Feeder cattle –January $314.23 -2.15; March $307.05 -1.50; April $305.35 -1.20; May $303.33 -0.93; December corn closed at $4.26 down 1 cent from Thursday.