by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
March 20, 2026
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle trade was not established at the time of this writing. Ask prices on a live basis were mainly $238 to $240 with bids at $235 while a few dressed prices were at $372.
The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $234.05 live, down $0.72 compared to a week ago and $370.00 dressed, down $2.04 compared to last week. A year ago, prices were $207.98 live and $330.00 dressed.
Why would anyone want to trade finished cattle early in the week when they can just wait until the end of the week to do business. More information is always better than less information. With the cattle on feed report set to be released on Friday afternoon, everyone should wait to see what the results of that survey say before any decisions are made. It is clear the cattle feeder and the packer both think the report will be in their favor, but are three options. It could be in the packers’ favor, the cattle feeders’ favor, or neutral. What has not changed is the availability of cattle, and that needle is not expected to move anytime soon. Trading finished cattle is like watching paint dry until it is not. Then it is more like a lightning storm with little predictability.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $400.42 up $0.12 from Thursday and up $3.17 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $392.78 up $0.33 from Thursday and up $1.92 from last week. The Choice Select spread was $7.64 compared to $6.39 a week ago.
The wholesale boxed beef market is demonstrating follow through as boxed beef prices are proving to be resilient heading into spring. This is certainly welcomed by packers, because the boxed beef price is now higher than the price of a dressed steer or heifer. The math is simple when boxed beef prices are lower than finished cattle prices in that the bottom line is always red. The margin is turning more favorable though losses are still on the table. The back of the feed sack math says there is about $270 per head to handle all the costs while ignoring the drop credit. This still means profits are difficult to find, but it is looking more promising. This brings the discussion to JBS Greeley and the union workers striking. It was mentioned in this article previously, JBS has no reason to rush and make a deal with the labor force. In fact, this may be to JBS’s benefit in that labor costs have decreased and they are not losing money on each animal processed. Unfortunately, it does not appear union leadership has thought about the favor they are doing JBS right now. Just costing people a paycheck.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction market average prices, steer prices were $2 to $8 higher than last week, while heifer prices were $4 to $9 higher compared to the previous week. Slaughter cow prices were $2 to $3 higher this week compared to a week ago while slaughter bull prices were unevenly steady compared to last week. Given there are many stocker producers purchasing calves in March and April to graze spring and summer pasture, this is a good time to look at what profit potential is available in purchasing calves. Lighter weight calves are the most sought after this time of year so the purchase of a 525-pound steer is an appropriate place to start. The value of a 525-pound steer in Tennessee this week was approximately $2,570 per head. The assumption is those purchasing those animals will grow them to 825 pounds with the expected sale in September. This would mean the producer is looking for an average daily gain of about 2 pounds. The expected value at the time of marketing is $2,850 per head, which is $280 of margin per head. This means the value of gain is $0.93 per pound. If the assumption is a four percent death loss, $0.50 per pound cost of gain, and $20 per head in a health program, the cost of production is equivalent to the marketing value. This means there is no profit, and the only way for a producer to make a profit is to have a death loss less than four percent, a cost of gain less than $0.50 per pound, or hope the price of cattle increases. In reality, a profit may only be realized if at least two or maybe all three of them come to fruition. There is a little more room when purchasing bull calves from the margin standpoint, but they also carry more risk. The heifer side of the equation is not any better. The most unfortunate part of this equation is the magnitude of prices. There is more money at risk for a margin that is practically nonexistent. In other words, more money can be lost when compared to previous turns of cattle and the return on investment will be small even if it is positive.
The March cattle on feed report for feedlots with a 1000 head or more capacity indicated cattle and calves on feed as of March 1, 2026 totaled 11.55 million head, down 0.2% compared to a year ago, with the pre-report estimate average expecting a decrease of 0.7%. February placements in feedlots totaled 1.61 million head, up 3.7% from a year ago with the pre-report estimate average expecting placements up 0.3%. February marketing’s totaled 1.52 million head down 6.8% from 2025 with pre-report estimates expecting marketings down 7.6%. Placements on feed by weight: under 700 pounds up 2.6%, 700 to 899 pounds up 4.6%, 900 pounds and over up 2.8%.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
At several meetings this winter, the topic of transitioning farmland to another generation and no young people wanting to farm has been raised several times. Many farmers and livestock producers feel as if there is no one who wants to farm or willing to farm. Another deterrent many people mention is the cost of getting started in farming, which can be a barrier to a new entrant in farming. These are valid concerns, but current farmers have the greatest opportunity to help the next generation get started in the business. The main problem is there is a lack of communication and willingness to simply asks, and this is on all parties. There are young people who would like to farm, and those young people should talk to older farmers to see if there may be an opportunity to help them. The same can be said of established farmers. Established farmers can identify someone with interest in farming and offer them an opportunity. It is kind of like asking a girl on a date, the worst that can happen is the person say no.
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –April $234.05 +0.78; June $233.05 +1.73; August $230.83 +1.73; Feeder cattle –March $357.75 +2.48; April $351.18 +3.43; May $346.38 +2.95; August $346.13 +2.75; May corn closed at $4.66 down 4 cents from Thursday.