by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
December 5, 2025
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle traded $10 to $11 higher this week compared to a week ago on a live basis. Prices on a live basis ranged from $217 to $222 while dressed prices were mainly $340 to $345.
The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $220.02 live, up $10.68 compared to a week ago and $342.39 dressed up $13.01 compared to last week. A year ago, prices were $190.35 live and $296.90 dressed.
Finished cattle prices were well supported following the holiday as many packers attempt to secure cattle for their final push of beef heading toward Christmas and the New Year holiday. Wholesale beef prices have not demonstrated any strength heading toward end of the year holidays, but packers are preparing for retailers and food service to call on beef the next few weeks. This is certainly a positive signal for cattle feeders and may result in cattle feeders being willing to let a few more cattle move before the end of the year. Nearly everyone in the industry knows the weakest beef demand months are not too far off and holding onto animals with the intention of adding weight and selling later may not result in experiencing their greatest value.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $362.68 down $0.04 from Thursday and down $4.21 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $349.48 down $0.84 from Thursday and down $0.90 from a week ago. The Choice Select spread was $13.20 compared to $16.51 a week ago.
Wholesale boxed beef prices are not performing and have not been performing since the end of October as the Choice boxed beef price has declined $16 per hundredweight over the past 5 weeks. This was not unexpected through early November as consumer focus is generally on ham and turkey leading up to Thanksgiving. However, beef prices are generally expected to be supported following Thanksgiving as the focus turns to beef. That support has yet to be evident from the wholesale beef price standpoint. Is this a sign that retailers, food service and thus consumers are slowing their purchase rate of high-quality muscle cuts? The next few weeks will provide significant information to answer that question. If purchases of muscle cuts do slow then there will be even more pull on ground beef, which will keep ground beef prices elevated. At this moment, there is not any concern that consumers are moving away from high quality muscle cuts from the beef carcass. It is simply something to keep an eye on the next few weeks.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction market averages, steer prices were $4 to $10 higher this week compared to last week while heifer prices were $6 to $11 higher than the previous week. Slaughter cow prices were steady to $1 higher than a week ago while slaughter bull prices were $1 to $2 higher than last week. Weekly livestock auctions were back to work this week following the Thanksgiving holiday. A few markets held sales on Thanksgiving week, but most took a one-week break. Despite the less-than-ideal weather to transport cattle, several head were traded this week, which may have been a good decision by producers willing to brave the cold and wet. Cash prices certainly followed the futures, but feeder cattle futures have been making an impressive run higher once again. Using January feeder cattle futures as the example, the price of the January contract has increased $16 to $17 per hundredweight since Thanksgiving and $26 to $27 per hundredweight since November 24th. This is still a long way from the life of contract high, which was $380 on October 16th. It would be extremely optimistic to reach back to that level especially given the short time frame in which the market is operating relative to January. Similarly, the August feeder cattle futures contract has made a similar price movement as the January contract. The August contract is still $40 to $45 per hundredweight lower than its life of contract high realized in the middle of October. It is still unlikely the price of feeder cattle will challenge those highs between now and August, but time is on the market’s side when looking that far in the future. From a marketing standpoint, producers should consider how they can take advantage of the futures market making the gains they have the past week. This is not to say prices will not continue pushing higher, but prices could take another dive, which would be disheartening for many. It is difficult at this time to have an expectation for the direction of prices, but they are unlikely to stay steady.
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
The question that struck a chord this week was “Can the cattle market expand the cattle herd?” After answering the question, the person clearly had a puzzled look so they asked the question in a different way. Their question was not “can” but rather “will” cattle producers expand the herd. These are two completely different questions with different answers. In short, cattle producers certain “can” retain heifers and begin cattle herd expansion. Many would say aging producers and land loss would prevent the ability to expand, but land is underutilized and there are young producers who want in. They just do not know how to do it. The question of “will” cattle producers expand the breeding herd has a much different answer. First, the herd will eventually expand, but it will not do it in the near term. Drought has prevented heifer retention for three consecutive years. It could do it again next year. Second, rapid expansion will be hindered by those capitalizing on strong calf prices. Third, why would one expand the herd in a hurry so prices have a reason to decline?
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –December $227.15 +5.70; February $227.15 +3.15; April $227.68 +2.50; Feeder cattle –January $339.05 +2.48; March $333.30 +3.58; April $332.23 +3.63; May $330.48 +3.43; December corn closed at $4.37 down 1 cent from Thursday.