by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
October 10, 2025
FED CATTLE
Fed cattle traded $1 higher this week compared to a week ago on a live basis. Prices on a live basis were mainly $230 to $232 while dressed prices were mainly $360 to $362.
The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $230.71 live, up $0.75 compared to a week ago and $360.25 dressed up $0.53 compared to last week. A year ago, prices were $187.08 live and $295.90 dressed.
Cattle feeders and packers were slow to come to terms this week on the price of finished cattle. In fact, trading cattle this week was slower than pouring cold molasses on a biscuit while fishing in the Artic. In fact, it appeared packers were like a dog that were not interested in biting the biscuit. The challenge was probably due to cattle feeders holding out for higher prices simply because packers witnessed a modest increase in wholesale beef prices. The challenge for packers is that they are essentially paying the same price for a finished animal as the value of the beef in the carcass. This means most packers are playing in a negative margin game, and they are looking for any way to exit that situation.
BEEF CUTOUT
At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $366.27 up $1.05 from Thursday and up $3.32 from a week ago. The Select cutout was $347.00 up $2.67 from Thursday and up $1.41 from a week ago. The Choice Select spread was $19.27 compared to $17.36 a week ago.
Could the wholesale beef market have found its bottom in the short run? Wholesale beef prices have been steadily declining since the Labor Day rush on beef, but market prices were able to put a stop to that sharp decline this week. In fact, not only did wholesale beef prices stop declining, market participants pushed prices slightly higher. The simple fact here is that beef will continue to be under pressure moving through October and November, which means it will be difficult force beef prices higher. Packers can certainly play a role by reducing slaughter rates and thus reducing the quantity of beef available each week, but any profit taking firm will notice higher prices and thus slaughter more animals. Despite the softness in the market today, $400 wholesale beef prices will reemerge. There is a chance they will show back up during the holiday season, but they will be more prominent next spring and summer if the consumer continues to demand beef at the level they are demanding it now. Very little or nothing points towards consumers reducing demand.
OUTLOOK
Based on Tennessee weekly auction reports, steer prices were $2 to $6 higher compared to last week while heifer prices were $4 to $10 higher compared to a week ago. Slaughter cow prices were $2 to $4 lower compared to the previous week while bull prices were $2 to $3 lower compared to a week ago. The cattle market has now reached the time period in which spring born calves are making their way to town. Producers are clearly setting wheels under the calf crop and receiving the highest prices most of them have ever experienced. In most cases, steers weighing 525 pounds are valued on either side of $2,000 per head while similar weight heifers are closer to $1,800 per head. In time periods of high revenue, cow-calf producers tend to retain more heifers for several reasons, which may include cash flow, taxes, desire to grow the cow herd, or several other motivations. However, thus far this year, the producer though process has been to sell high valued heifers and capitalize on today’s high price instead of attempting to develop more breeding stock. This is understandable because a weanling age heifer today will not produce a marketable calf for two years. This is where considerations come in for purchasing bred females, cow-calf pairs, or heifers of breeding age. The traditional route of developing a heifer today that will finally calve in the spring of 2027 and produce a marketable calf in the fall of 2027 has a large financial burden. To begin with, there is $1,800 worth of value if it were sold today plus a year of cost to making her a four to six month bred heifer by this time next year. There will then be one more year of cost before her offspring is of marketable age. This does not mean she cannot be sold any time throughout that period, but it does raise the question of how much a person can pay for a bred heifer that will return value a year from now?
ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK
When is the right time? This is a question that is primarily associated with when a person is attempting to determine the “correct” time to sell their calf crop. In other words, the question is when will prices be the highest so the producer can get the most value out of their calf crop? Most of the time the answer to this question does not matter, because the person asking the question is wondering which week out of the next two to three weeks should they sell their calves. If everyone knew if prices would increase or decrease over a short period then all the cattle would be sold in the same week. However, this question can be used more broadly when someone is asking if they should precondition and background a set of cattle. This is a little more involved, because there is a price and weight relationship to go along with weight class valuation changing due to a seasonal component. This is the better question of the two, but if someone asks the question of when to sell cattle then the answer is now!
Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.
FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES
Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –October $238.48 +3.45; December $242.53 +2.63; February $245.40 +2.00; Feeder cattle –October $375.50 +1.48; November $375.990 +1.85; January $371.95 +2.90; March $368.90 +3.48; December corn closed at $4.13 down 5 cents from Thursday.