by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist
March 13, 2026
Overview
Corn, Soybeans, and Cotton up for the week; Wheat down for the week
The March WASDE followed the pattern of no surprises. U.S. crop supplies are pretty much known, but clarity will come with feed usage in the March 31 Grain Stocks report. South America remains the main source of market movements as first crop harvest and second crop planting continue.
USDA has U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat production unchanged from February, with all three crops posting record 2025 yields. Corn use estimates were steady, keeping ending stocks at 2.2 billion bushels (49.7 day supply), well above last year’s levels. Corn farm price surprisingly remained at $4.10/bu. Soybean supply increased by 5 million bushels due to higher imports, matched by a 5 million bushel increase in crush, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 350 million bushels (30 days of use). The season average soybean price remained unchanged at $10.20/bu. Wheat supply and use were also unchanged, although USDA raised the season average farm price by five cents to $4.95/bu.
Globally, ending stocks were mixed: corn stocks rose on higher production, while soybean and wheat stocks declined as reduced or steady supplies failed to keep pace with use. Two major reports arrive March 31: Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings. Stocks data will help clarify feed use, while planting intentions may reflect uncertainty around fertilizer prices, recent geopolitical developments, and recent strength in commodity prices.
In the ginning report, US production was estimated to be 13,099,100 bales for the 2025 crop, which is down from the 2024 crop of 13,589,450 bales (3.6% lower). In Tennessee, production was estimated to be 360,300 bales for the 2025 crop, which is down from the 2024 crop of 535,250 bales (32.7% lower).
From a pricing perspective, the board had a strong middle week of price movements. From a marketing perspective, there is opportunity to lock in floor prices (highest seen in a long time) on some of this year’s crop. An option could be of use in any given market given the recent rallies.
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 98.95 | 100.46 | 1.51 |
| Crude Oil | 90.87 | 98.27 | 7.40 |
| DJIA | 47515 | 46558 | -957 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) slightly strengthened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 11 cents under to 42 cents over, with an average of 22 cents over with the March futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending March 3rd was 1.126 million barrels, up 31,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 25.58 million barrels, down 757,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.33 to $4.90 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.52, which is up 5 cents compared to last week. For the week, March 2026 corn futures traded between $4.32 and $4.59.
| Corn | Mar 26 | Change | Sep 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.52 | $0.05 | $4.79 | $0.07 |
| Support | $4.47 | $0.13 | $4.74 | $0.17 |
| Resistance | $4.55 | $0.08 | $4.81 | $0.13 |
| 20 Day MA | $4.35 | $0.04 | $4.58 | $0.07 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.32 | $0.00 | $4.49 | $0.02 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.38 | $0.01 | $4.51 | $0.02 |
| 4-Week High | $4.59 | $0.10 | $4.88 | $0.16 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.24 | $0.00 | $4.44 | $0.03 |
| Technical Trend | UP | = | UP | = |
For the week of February 27-March 5, 2026, there were net sales of 1,503,300 MT for 2025/2026, down 26% from the previous week, and 4% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 1,684,800 MT, down 1% from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.38 to $4.95 at elevators and barge points. September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.79, which is 7 cents higher compared to last week.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis weakened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 21 und er to 54 over the March futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 14 cents over. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $11.61 to $12.52. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.69, up 14 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $11.40 and $11.82.
| Soybeans | Sep 26 | Change | Nov 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $11.69 | $0.14 | $11.61 | $0.15 |
| Support | $11.62 | $0.26 | $11.54 | $0.24 |
| Resistance | $11.76 | $0.29 | $11.68 | $0.27 |
| 20 Day MA | $11.38 | $0.15 | $11.33 | $0.13 |
| 50 Day MA | $11.00 | $0.09 | $11.01 | $0.08 |
| 100 Day MA | $10.99 | $0.05 | $11.00 | $0.05 |
| 4-Week High | $11.83 | $0.24 | $11.74 | $0.24 |
| 4-Week Low | $11.07 | $0.17 | $11.04 | $0.17 |
| Technical Trend | UP | = | UP | = |
For the week of February 27- March 5, 2026, there were net sales of 456,700 MT for 2025/2026, up 19% from the previous week, but down 2% from the prior 4-week average. Total net sales of 9,500 MT for 2026/2027 were for Japan. Exports of 995,300 MT were down 11% from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 1,119,500 MT, up 38% from the previous week, but down 3% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (477,100 MT), Egypt (221,800 MT), Indonesia (121,200 MT), Mexico (82,800 MT), and Colombia (31,500 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.61, up 15 cents compared to last week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for March 12th were down compared to last week. Prices were down to 63.14 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 67.89 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both up .94 cents compared to last week’s prices.
| Cotton | May 26 | Change | Dec 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 65.85 | 1.65 | 70.33 | 1.48 |
| Support | 65.24 | 1.62 | 69.80 | |
| Resistance | 66.35 | 1.90 | 70.84 | |
| 20 Day MA | 64.81 | 0.35 | 69.12 | |
| 50 Day MA | 65.07 | -0.03 | 68.86 | |
| 100 Day MA | 65.51 | -0.07 | 68.38 | |
| 4-Week High | 66.38 | 0.00 | 70.82 | |
| 4-Week Low | 63.41 | 0.36 | 67.86 | |
| Technical Trend | UP | = | UP | = |
For the week February 27- March 5, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland totaling 253,200 RB for 2025/2026, up 68% from the previous week, but down 8% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 36,600 RB for 2026/2027 were reported for Vietnam (15,100 RB), Turkey (13,200 RB), Bangladesh (7,700 RB), and Thailand (600 RB). Exports of 370,100 RB (another week that sets a marketing-year high), up 31% from the previous week and 77% from the prior 4-week average. For the week, May 2026 cotton futures closed at 65.85 cents, up 1.65 cents compared to last week. December 2026 cotton futures closed at 70.33 cents, u[p 1.48 cents compared to last week.
Wheat
Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.81 to $5.93.
| Wheat | Jul 26 | Change | Sep 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $6.24 | -$0.01 | $6.37 | $0.01 |
| Support | $6.12 | $0.09 | $6.24 | $0.10 |
| Resistance | $6.31 | -$0.06 | $6.43 | -$0.05 |
| 20 Day MA | $5.89 | $0.15 | $6.00 | $0.14 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.62 | $0.08 | $5.74 | $0.07 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.58 | $0.04 | $5.71 | $0.04 |
| 4-Week High | $6.49 | $0.23 | $6.60 | $0.23 |
| 4-Week Low | $5.48 | $0.04 | $5.60 | $0.03 |
| Technical Trend | DOWN | = | UP | = |
For the week February 27- March 5, 2026, there was total net sales of 455,400 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026, up 124% from the previous week and up 49% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 40,400 MT for 2026/2027 were reported for Honduras (23,400 MT), Colombia (12,000 MT), and Nicaragua (5,000 MT). Exports of 432,000 MT were up 24% from the previous week, but down 4% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (198,900 MT), Mexico (64,900 MT), Thailand (56,000 MT), Taiwan (32,300 MT), and Venezuela (29,600 MT). July 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.24, down 1 cent compared to last week. July 2026 wheat futures traded between $5.95 and $6.49 this week. September 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.37, up 1 cent compared to last week.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at cmart113@utk.edu.