Crop Comments

by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist

April 17, 2026

Overview

Corn, Cotton, and Wheat up for the week; Soybeans down for the week.

This week’s comments highlight strengthening basis levels for corn and soybeans across much of Tennessee, modest gains in corn and wheat futures, continued softness in soybean futures, and notable price increases in cotton markets. There were a few important reports, and I summarized them below. I hope everyone has a great weekend!

April 2026 Feed Outlook Report

The USDA-ERS April 2026 Feed Outlook report has the 2025/26 marketing year, U.S. corn ending stocks steady at 2.127 billion bushels (the highest since 2018/19) while the season-average farm price was raised 5 cents to $4.15 per bushel. The U.S. corn supply picture remains comfortable at 18,597 million bushels, with feed and residual use unchanged at 6.2 billion bushels, reflecting reported disappearance during the December–February quarter as indicated by the March 31 Grain Stocks report. First-half marketing year disappearance totaled 9.6 billion bushels, up over 1 billion from the same period a year ago, while U.S. corn exports through December 2025 reached 1,101 million bushels (the highest on record through December and outpacing 2024/25 by 51%). On the global front, world corn ending stocks edged higher to 294.81 million metric tons, with no adjustments made to South American production estimates for Brazil or Argentina. For Tennessee and other southeastern producers, the combination of ample national supplies, a $4.15 corn price, and elevated input costs continues to pressure margins, reinforcing the importance of tight cost management and diversified revenue strategies heading into the 2026 planting season.

April 2026 Wheat Outlook

The USDA-ERS April 2026 Wheat Outlook has the U.S. wheat market caught between record-high domestic supplies and growing weather uncertainty in the nation’s primary wheat-producing regions. U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 were raised to 938 million bushels, the largest carryout since 2019/20 and up 10 percent year-over-year, driven primarily by a surge in imports and reduced domestic seed use, while exports held steady at 900 million bushels. The season-average farm price increased 5 cents to $5.00 per bushel based on NASS-reported prices to date, though this remains at a 6-year low that provides little incentive for expanded planting. Most strikingly, the NASS Prospective Plantings report issued March 31 forecast 2026/27 all-wheat planted area at just 43.8 million acres, down 3% from the prior year and the lowest level since records began in 1919, with reductions expected across all five classes of wheat as producers continue shifting acreage to more profitable corn and soybeans. March 1 wheat stocks totaled 1.3 billion bushels, up 5% from a year ago, while durum stocks climbed 21% to 46 million bushels. U.S. wheat exports from June 2025 through February 2026 reached 710 million bushels, up 19 from the same period last year, reflecting competitive pricing on the global stage despite abundant supplies. However, the market faces a “split reality” as a rapidly intensifying drought has engulfed the Southern Plains, with 71% of Kansas now under extreme moisture stress, up from just 18 percent one month prior, threatening the 2026 winter wheat crop and injecting a significant weather premium into futures markets. On the global front, world wheat ending stocks rose to 283.12 million metric tons, with Russia’s production forecast at a staggering 91 million metric tons continuing to cap price upside for American producers. For Tennessee and southeastern wheat producers, the combination of record-low national planting intentions, a $5.00 farm price at a 6-year low, elevated input costs, with a recent Farm Bureau survey showing 70 percent of farmers unable to afford fertilizer, and the uncertain weather outlook underscores the critical importance of careful enterprise budgeting, risk management through crop insurance, and diversified revenue strategies as the 2026 growing season progresses

Fuel

The table below shows that average fuel prices have dipped slightly in the short term but remain significantly higher than a year ago. Compared with yesterday and last week, all fuel types: Regular, Mid-Grade, Premium, Diesel, and E85, have experienced small declines, indicating a modest easing in prices. However, when compared to one month ago, most fuels are still noticeably more expensive, especially Diesel, which has risen from $5.04 to $5.59, and Regular gasoline, which increased from $3.79 to $4.08. The year-over-year comparison highlights the current situation that producers are facing during planting season: prices across all fuel categories are substantially higher than a year ago, with Diesel showing the sharpest increase, climbing from $3.58 to $5.59. Overall, while recent days suggest slight relief for consumers, fuel costs remain elevated compared to longer-term historical levels.

Time Period	Regular	Mid-Grade	Premium	Diesel	E85
Current Avg.	$4.08	$4.59	$4.95	$5.59	$3.21
Yesterday Avg.	$4.09	$4.61	$4.97	$5.61	$3.23
Week Ago Avg.	$4.15	$4.67	$5.03	$5.68	$3.30
Month Ago Avg.	$3.79	$4.30	$4.66	$5.04	$2.99
Year Ago Avg.	$3.17	$3.64	$4.00	$3.58	$2.63

Indicator	Previous	Current	Change
USD Index	98.67	98.08	-0.59
Crude Oil	89.19	83.34	-5.85
DJIA	47916	49412	1496

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 20 cents under to 30 cents over, with an average of 8 cents over with the May futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending April 10th was 1.12 million barrels, up 4,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 26.699 million barrels, up 646,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.20 to $4.93 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.61, which is up 5 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 corn futures traded between $4.55 and $4.65.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn planted to be 5% compared to 3% last week,  4% last year, and a 5-year average of 4%. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.15 to $4.83 at elevators and barge points. For the week of April 3-9, 2026, there were net sales of 1,400,600 MT for 2025/2026, up 3% from the previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. Total net sales of 56,500 MT for 2026/2027 were for Mexico. Exports of 1,558,700 MT were down 15% from the previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. December corn futures closed at $4.77, up 5 cents from last week.

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 5 under to 23 over the May futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 8 cents over. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $11.53 to $12.03. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.52, down 6 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $11.41 and $11.65.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybeans planted to be 6% compared to NR last week,  2% last year, and a 5-year average of 2%. For the week of April 3-9, 2026, there were net sales of 247,900 MT for 2025/2026 (a marketing-year low), down 16% from the previous week and 39% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of f 818,500 MT, up 29% from the previous week, but down 8% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (345,800 MT), Egypt (274,100 MT), Mexico (68,400 MT), Indonesia (31,200 MT), and Japan (24,400 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.56, down 1 cent compared to last week.

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for April 16th were up compared to last week. Prices were 73.11 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 77.86 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both up 3.44 cents compared to last week’s prices.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton planted to be 7% compared to 5% last week, 5% last year, and a 5-year average of 7%. For the week April 3-9, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland totaling 161,100 RB for 2025/2026 were down 50% from the previous week and 41% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 305,000 RB were down 11% from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (110,400 RB), Pakistan (35,900 RB), Turkey (31,900 RB), Bangladesh (25,000 RB), and Indonesia (17,400 RB). For the week, May 2026 cotton futures closed at 77.4 cents, up 4.18 cents compared to last week. December 2026 cotton futures closed at 80.5 cents, up 3.61 cents compared to last week.

Wheat

Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.60 to $5.93.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated spring wheat planted to be 6% compared to 2% last week, 6% last year, and a 5-year average of 7%. The report estimated winter wheat headed to be 11% compared to 7% last week, 8% last year, and a 5-year average of 7%. For the week of April 3-6, 2026, net sales of 100,300 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026, down 39% from the previous week and 4% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 131,000 MT for 2026/2027 were reported for South Korea (90,000 MT), Mexico (22,000 MT), and the Philippines (19,000 MT). Exports of 312,200 MT were down 16% from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (90,700 MT), Taiwan (54,300 MT), Nigeria (52,400 MT), Vietnam (34,800 MT), and Nicaragua (26,800 MT). July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.99, up 19 cents compared to last week. July 2026 wheat futures traded between $5.86 and $6.17 this week. September 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.11, up cents compared to last week.

Additional Information

Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news

If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at cmart113@utk.edu.