by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
October 9, 2026
Overview
Corn and Wheat down, Soybean and Cotton up for the week
Fuel
Diesel prices softened over the past week while gas prices are slightly higher to unchanged. The big news this week is Tennessee Governor Bill Lee suspending the enforcement of state restrictions on tax exempt dyed diesel fuel. Dyed diesel is fuel used for agricultural purposes with no road tax included. Governor Lee’s suspension of this enforcement allows businesses engaged in agricultural and forestry operations hauling agricultural goods to use this fuel while driving on state highways through the end of October. The state announcement follows President Trump’s nationwide announcement. Despite the President’s announcement, this is expected to do little to reduce cost at the farm level.
| Fuel | Regular | Mid-Grade | Premium | Diesel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Avg. | $3.96 | $4.44 | $4.84 | $5.99 |
| Yesterday Avg. | $3.97 | $4.45 | $4.85 | $6.00 |
| Week Ago Avg. | $3.96 | $4.41 | $4.82 | $6.07 |
| Month Ago Avg. | $3.83 | $4.31 | $4.71 | $5.67 |
| Year Ago Avg. | $2.73 | $3.19 | $3.57 | $3.39 |
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 101.04 | 101.94 | 0.90 |
| Crude Oil | 92.29 | 91.26 | -1.03 |
| DJIA | 51762 | 51159 | -603 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) increased 7 cents from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 53 cents under to 7 cents under, with an average of 30 cents under the December futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending October 2nd was 1.053 million barrels per day, up 46,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 23.743 million barrels, down 122,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.45 to $4.95 at elevators and barge points.On Friday, December 2026 corn futures closed at $4.80, which is down 18 cents compared to last week. For the week, December 2026 corn futures traded between $4.70 and $5.10.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 54% good-to-excellent (down 3% from last week) and 18% poor-to-very poor (down 1% from last week); corn harvested to be 23% compared to 18% last week, NA last year, and a 5-year average of 27%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 81% good-to-excellent (no change from last week) and 4% poor-to-very poor (no change from last week); corn harvested to be 83% compared to 73% last week, NA last year, and a 5-year average of 68%. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.48 to $5.31 at elevators and barge points. For the week of September 25-October 1, 2026, net sales of 769,500 MT for 2026/2027 were up 44 percent from the previous week and 28 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (508,800 MT), Colombia (196,900 MT), Japan (96,800 MT), Costa Rica (81,300 MT), and South Korea (69,000 MT). Exports of 1,597,800 were down 11 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (674,500 MT), Japan (446,300 MT), Colombia (177,800 MT), South Korea (135,700 MT), and Costa Rica (32,200 MT).
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis increased 6 cents compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 42 under to 2 over with the November futures contract, with an average basis of 24 cents under at the end of the week. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $12.41 to $13.14. November 2026 soybean futures closed at $12.92, up 14 cents compared to last week. For the week, November 2026 soybean futures traded between $12.70 and $13.09.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 57% good-to-excellent (down 1% from last week) and 14% poor-to-very poor (up 1% from last week); soybean harvested to be 25% compared to 17% last week, NA last year, and a 5-year average of 33%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 71% good-to-excellent (no change from last week) compared to 7% poor-to-very poor (no change from last week); soybeans harvested to be 59% compared to 50% last week, NA last year, and a 5-year average of 32%. For the week of September 25-October 1, 2026, net sales of 549,400 MT for 2026/2027 were down 47 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (382,900 MT), Mexico (139,800 MT), Tunisia (60,000 MT), the Netherlands (59,000 MT), and Egypt (57,900 MT). Exports of 1,379,700 MT were up 40 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for October 8th were up compared to last week. Prices were 82.44 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 77.69 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both up 2.18 cents compared to last week’s prices.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 33% good-to-excellent (down 2% from last week) and 37% poor-to-very poor (up 2% from last week); cotton harvested to be 23% compared to 17% last week, NA% last year, and a 5-year average of 21%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 57% good-to-excellent (down 2% from last week) and 16% poor-to-very poor (no change from last week); cotton harvested to be 22% compared to 9% last week, NA% last year, and a 5-year average of 10%. For the week September 25-October 1, 2026, net sales of Upland totaling 165,100 RB for 2026/2027 were down 19 percent from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (61,800 RB), Pakistan (45,900 RB), India (20,800 RB), Honduras (11,900 RB), and Bangladesh (8,100 RB. Net sales of 56,100 RB for 2027/2028 were reported for China (44,100 RB), Honduras (10,400 RB), and Japan (1,600 RB). Exports of 161,600 RB were up 8 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. On Thursday, December 2026 cotton futures settled at 79.94 cents, up 2.18 cents compared to last week. December 2027 cotton futures settled at 78.14 cents, up 1.43 cents compared to last week.
Wheat
Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $6.13 to $6.84. July 2027 wheat futures closed at $6.95, down 10 cents compared to last week.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat planted to be 36% compared to 27% last week, NA last year, and a 5-year average of 46%. For the week of September 25-October 1, net sales of 451,600 metric tons (MT) for 2026/2027 were up 56 percent from the previous week and 68 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for the Philippines (112,000 MT), South Korea (100,000 MT), Japan (62,900 MT), Bangladesh (59,100 MT), and Mexico (35,600 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (4,000 MT) and Costa Rica (400 MT). Exports of 218,200 MT were down 31 percent from the previous week and 49 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at agriff14@utk.edu.