by Aaron Smith, Crops Marketing Specialist
April 25, 2025
Overview
Corn and wheat were down; soybeans and cotton were up for the week.
Planting continued to progress this week with 12% of corn, 8% of soybeans, and 11% of cotton estimated to be planted nationally as of April 21st. Weather will be a key factor in planting pace and price direction this spring. Currently, 26% of corn, 21% of soybeans, and 21% of cotton area nationally are estimated to be in drought, down from the previous week, but higher than this time last year. Most of the drought affected corn and soybean areas are in Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas. West Texas and Oklahoma have the majority of drought in the Cotton Belt. NOAA’s 7-day precipitation forecast indicates some relief in these drought afflicted areas, with 1-2 inches forecast for the northern plains and up to five inches in Texas and Oklahoma.
This week December cotton futures filled the April 2-3 price gap of 69-70.28 cents created when the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs for most trade partners. Tariff pauses and the potential for beneficial trade negotiations, with several southeast Asian nations, have assisted in moving prices higher. Filling the price gap should allow futures prices to move higher, possibly pushing December futures prices into the previous trading range of 70-74 cents. Advances beyond 74 cents will likely be weather driven and will mostly be contingent upon forecasts in the U.S. southern plains.
Despite the uncertainty around tariffs, exports of corn, soybeans, and wheat are favorable compared to last year. As of April 17, corn exports are up 26%, soybeans up 12%, and wheat up 12% compared to the same week last year. Cotton exports are down 6% compared to last year. Outstanding sales are also ahead of last year, with corn and wheat up 24%, soybeans up 27%, and cotton up 2%. Exports are essential for improved price prospects as the U.S. is projected to send 16.4%, 41.8%, 43.1%, and 76.3% of 2024 corn, soybean, wheat, and cotton production to foreign markets.
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 99.13 | 99.31 | 0.18 |
| Crude Oil | 64.68 | 63.07 | -1.61 |
| DJIA | 39,142 | 40,119 | 977 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, and West-Central elevators and barge points and weakened at Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 25 under to 30 over, with an average of 15 over the May futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending April 11 was 1.033 million barrels per day, up 21,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 25.481 million barrels, down 1.333 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for April 11-17 were net sales of 45.4 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 5% compared to last week at 70.1 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 89% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 92%. Cash prices ranged from $4.47 to $5.12 at elevators and barge points. May 2025 corn futures closed at $4.78, down 4 cents since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 corn futures traded between $4.70 and $4.87. July 2025 corn futures closed at $4.85, down 5 cents since last Friday. May/Jul and May/Dec future spreads were 7 and -23 cents.
| Corn | May 25 | Change | Dec 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.78 | -$0.04 | $4.55 | -$0.11 |
| Support | $4.69 | -$0.06 | $4.52 | -$0.09 |
| Resistance | $4.82 | -$0.06 | $4.58 | -$0.11 |
| 20 Day MA | $4.72 | $0.05 | $4.54 | $0.03 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.74 | -$0.02 | $4.56 | -$0.01 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.73 | $0.02 | $4.53 | $0.01 |
| 4-Week High | $4.90 | $0.00 | $4.69 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.42 | $0.00 | $4.36 | $0.00 |
| Technical Trend | Up | = | Up | = |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn emerged at 2% compared to 3% last year and a 5-year average of 2% and corn planted at 12% compared to 4% last week, 11% last year, and a 5-year average of 10%. In Tennessee, corn planted was estimated at 25% compared to 7% last week, 28% last year, and a 5-year average of 27% and corn emerged at 4% compared to 4% last year and a 5-year average of 5%. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.55, down 11 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.60 December 2025 Put Option costing 35 cents establishing a $4.25 futures floor. This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $4.30 to $4.62 at elevators and barge points.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee the average soybean basis strengthened or remained unchanged at West, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points and weakened at Northwest elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 35 under to 25 over the May futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 8 over. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 10.2 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and net sales cancellations of 0.003 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 31% compared to last week at 18.2 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 95% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 95%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.97 to $10.78. May 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.49, up 13 cents since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.29 and $10.58. The May soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.19 at the end of the week. July 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.59, up 12 cents since last Friday. May/Jul and May/Nov future spreads were 10 and -14 cents.
| Soybeans | May 25 | Change | Nov 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $10.49 | $0.13 | $10.35 | $0.03 |
| Support | $10.33 | $0.09 | $10.19 | -$0.01 |
| Resistance | $10.65 | $0.14 | $10.45 | $0.00 |
| 20 Day MA | $10.25 | $0.08 | $10.19 | $0.05 |
| 50 Day MA | $10.25 | -$0.02 | $10.23 | -$0.03 |
| 100 Day MA | $10.27 | $0.02 | $10.24 | $0.01 |
| 4-Week High | $10.58 | $0.09 | $10.43 | $0.04 |
| 4-Week Low | $9.69 | $0.00 | $9.71 | $0.00 |
| Technical Trend | Up | = | Up | = |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybeans planted at 8% compared to 2% last week, 7% last year, and a 5-year average of 5%. In Tennessee, soybeans planted were estimated at 15% compared to 5% last week, 16% last year, and a 5-year average of 7%. Oct/Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $9.86 to $10.43 for the week. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.35, up 3 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.40 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 59 cents and set a $9.81 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.27 at the end of the week. Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged between $9.85 and $10.43 this week at elevators and barge points.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for April 24 were 67.42 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 69.42 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) increased 1.45 cents to 54.88 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 104,000 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 38,000 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 11% compared to last week at 292,200 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 107% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 104%. May 2025 cotton futures closed at 66.85 cents, up 0.53 cents since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 cotton futures traded between 65.35 and 69.88 cents. July 2025 cotton futures closed at 68.8 cents, up 1.67 cents since last Friday. May/Jul and May/Dec cotton futures spreads were 1.95 cents and 3.12 cents.
| Cotton | May 25 | Change | Dec 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 66.85 | 0.53 | 69.97 | 1.53 |
| Support | 65.11 | -0.22 | 69.36 | 1.92 |
| Resistance | 69.95 | 3.02 | 70.98 | 1.90 |
| 20 Day MA | 66.29 | 0.37 | 68.70 | 0.05 |
| 50 Day MA | 66.37 | -0.05 | 68.85 | 0.01 |
| 100 Day MA | 67.84 | -0.27 | 69.33 | -0.14 |
| 4-Week High | 69.88 | 1.30 | 70.93 | 0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | 60.80 | 0.00 | 64.24 | 0.00 |
| Technical Trend | Up | + | Up | + |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton planted at 11% compared to 5% last week, 11% last year, and a 5-year average of 11%. In Tennessee, cotton planted was estimated at 2% compared to 1% last week, 1% last year, and a 5-year average of 1%. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 69.97 cents, up 1.53 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 70 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 3.91 cents establishing a 66.09 cent futures floor.
Wheat
Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales cancellations of 5.3 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and net sales of 13.7 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 1% compared to last week at 17.6 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 96% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 103%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.62 to $4.89. May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.30, down 18 cents since last Friday. The May wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.11. May 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.24 and $5.52 this week. May/Jul and May/Sep future spreads were 15 and 29 cents.
| Wheat | May 25 | Change | Jul 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $5.30 | -$0.18 | $5.45 | -$0.17 |
| Support | $5.21 | -$0.22 | $5.36 | -$0.20 |
| Resistance | $5.34 | -$0.24 | $5.49 | -$0.23 |
| 20 Day MA | $5.38 | -$0.03 | $5.52 | -$0.03 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.55 | -$0.06 | $5.70 | -$0.05 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.59 | -$0.02 | $5.71 | -$0.01 |
| 4-Week High | $5.56 | -$0.18 | $5.71 | -$0.20 |
| 4-Week Low | $5.17 | $0.00 | $5.32 | $0.00 |
| Technical Trend | Down | – | Down | – |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat condition at 45% good-to-excellent and 21% poor-to-very poor; winter wheat headed at 15% compared to 8% last week, 16% last year, and a 5-year average of 13%; spring wheat planted was estimated at 17% compared to 7% last week, 14% last year, and a 5-year average of 12%; and spring wheat emerged at 2% compared to 2% last year and a 5-year average of 2%. In Tennessee, winter wheat condition was estimated at 70% good-to-excellent and 10% poor-to-very poor; winter wheat jointing at 80% compared to 60% last week, 80% last year, and a 5-year average of 84%; and winter wheat headed at 32% compared to 2% last week, 22% last year, and a 5-year average of 23%. July cash contracts at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.99 to $5.44. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.59, down 17 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.45 July 2025 Put Option costing 23 cents establishing a $5.22 futures floor. September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.59, down 17 cents since last Friday.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu.