Crop Comments

by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist

July 2, 2026

Overview

Corn, Soybeans, Cotton, and Wheat up for the week

This week’s highlights a generally supportive outlook for grain markets following USDA’s July WASDE report, along with stronger futures prices across major commodities. Corn received a boost as USDA lowered 2026/27 ending stocks from 1.96 billion to 1.79 billion bushels, while Tennessee cash prices ranged from $4.29 to $4.80 per bushel and December corn futures gained 20 cents to close at $4.61. Soybeans remained fundamentally neutral, with ending stocks unchanged at 310 million bushels, but market sentiment improved as November futures climbed 43 cents to $11.91 and Tennessee soybean condition improved to 75% good-to-excellent. Wheat also drew attention as USDA projected the smallest U.S. crop since 1970/71 at 1.536 billion bushels, supporting prices amid tighter supplies and lower ending stocks. Cotton futures strengthened during the week, with December 2026 futures rising 4.42 cents to 81.45 cents per pound despite USDA’s longer-term outlook for larger supplies. I hope everyone has a great weekend!

WASDE

USDA’s July 2026 WASDE report was generally supportive for grain markets. For corn, USDA lowered 2026/27 ending stocks to 1.79 billion bushels from 1.96 billion in June because of lower beginning stocks and stronger export demand, while leaving yield unchanged at 183 bushels per acre. Soybeans were mostly unchanged, with ending stocks remaining at 310 million bushels and yield holding at 53 bushels per acre. Although soybean production increased slightly due to larger planted acreage, strong export demand helped offset the larger crop. Global corn and soybean ending stocks also declined modestly, indicating continued strength in demand.

For wheat, USDA projected 2026/27 production at 1.536 billion bushels, the smallest U.S. wheat crop since 1970/71, largely due to lower winter wheat production. U.S. wheat ending stocks were reduced to 722 million bushels, and global wheat stocks also declined, providing supportive price signals. In contrast, the outlook for cotton remained weaker, with larger supplies expected to increase ending stocks and keep pressure on prices. Overall, the report was viewed as bullish for wheat, supportive for corn, and neutral for soybeans.

Fuel

This week, Tennessee fuel prices have risen steadily in recent days, with current averages for regular gasoline ($3.51/gal), premium gasoline ($4.40/gal), and diesel ($4.57/gal) all higher than their levels one week ago. While prices remain below those recorded a month ago, they are substantially higher than one year ago, particularly diesel, which has increased from $3.45 to $4.57 per gallon, a 32% increase. Several factors are contributing to higher fuel prices. Escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, have disrupted tanker traffic and oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route that carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply. At the same time, reduced global oil supplies have pushed crude oil prices above $70 per barrel, increasing gasoline and diesel costs since crude oil accounts for about half of retail fuel prices. Seasonal summer travel demand is also adding upward pressure on fuel markets, as increased driving leads to higher consumption and stronger competition for available supplies.

Indicator	Regular	Mid-Grade	Premium	Diesel
Current Avg.	$3.51	$3.99	$4.40	$4.57
Yesterday Avg.	$3.47	$3.95	$4.36	$4.51
Week Ago Avg.	$3.40	$3.89	$4.30	$4.48
Month Ago Avg.	$3.71	$4.18	$4.58	$4.91
Year Ago Avg.	$2.82	$3.29	$3.69	$3.45

Fuel	Previous	Current	Change
USD Index	100.86	100.96	0.10
Crude Oil	68.45	71.46	3.01
DJIA	52900	52693	-208

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 8 cents under to 41 cents over, with an average of 7 cents over the July futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending July 3rd was 1.093 million barrels, down 24,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 23.928 million barrels, down 762,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.29 to $4.80 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.39, which is up 16 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 corn futures traded between $4.25 and $4.44.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 67% good-to-excellent (same as last week) and 8% poor-to-very poor (same as last week); corn silking to be 16% compared to 9% last week, 17% last year, and a 5-year average of 14%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 76% good-to-excellent (up 2% from last week) and 6% poor-to-very poor (up 2% from last week). This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.2 to $4.7 at elevators and barge points. For the week of June 26- July 2, 2026, net sales of 565,800 MT for 2025/2026 were down 23% from the previous week and 38% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 401,700 MT for 2026/2027 were primarily for South Korea (136,000 MT), Japan (112,000 MT), Colombia (57,000 MT), Mexico (46,900 MT), and unknown destinations (22,000 MT). Exports of 1,839,700 MT were up 1% from the previous week and 4% from the prior 4-week average. December corn futures closed at $4.61, up 20 cents from last week.

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 43 under to 10 under the July futures contract, with an average basis of 31 under at the end of the week. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $11.38 to $12.3. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.81, up[ 45 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $11.40 and $11.94.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 64% good-to-excellent (down 1% from last week) and 8% poor-to-very poor (same as last week); soybean blooming to be 34% compared to 19% last week, 30% last year, and a 5-year average of 28%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 75% good-to-excellent (up 3% from last week) compared to 7% poor-to-very poor (up 3% from last week); blooming to be 56% compared to 36% last week, 39% last year, and a 5-year average of 36%. For the week of June 26- July 2, 2026, there were net sales 54,300 MT for 2025/2026 were up 30 percent from the previous week, but down 81% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 182,500 MT for 2026/2027 were reported for Mexico (182,100 MT) and Vietnam (400 MT). Net sales of 408,300 MT for 2026/2027 were primarily for unknown destinations (338,000 MT), Colombia (54,000 MT), Taiwan (6,000 MT), Malaysia (5,000 MT), and Indonesia (2,800 MT). Exports of 574,900 MT were up 48% from the previous week and 47% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (268,100 MT), Mexico (92,200 MT), Japan (51,600 MT), Indonesia (48,000 MT), and Colombia (31,700 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.91, up 43 cents compared to last week.

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for July 9th were up compared to last week. Prices were 74.93 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 79.68 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both up 3.59 cents compared to last week’s prices.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 52% good-to-excellent (up 4% from last week) and 17% poor-to-very poor (up 1% from last week); cotton squaring to be 49% compared to 37% last week, 47% last year, and a 5-year average of 47%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 59% good-to-excellent (down 2% from last week) and 16% poor-to-very poor (up 7% from last week); cotton squaring to be 65% compared to 50% last week, 54% last year, and a 5-year average of 57%. For the week June 26- July 2, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland 66,400 RB for 2025/2026 were up 36% from the previous week, but down 49% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 87,000 RB for 2026/2027 primarily for Vietnam (48,700 RB), Turkey (30,800 RB), Japan (2,400 RB), Indonesia (2,400 RB), and Ecuador (1,600 RB). Exports of 230,100 RB were up 5% from the previous week, but down 14% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (57,300 RB), Turkey (49,800 RB), Pakistan (31,600 RB), Bangladesh (14,000 RB), and Mexico (12,000 RB). For the week, December 2026 cotton futures closed at 81.45 cents, up 4.42 cents compared to last week. March 2027 cotton futures closed at 82.91 cents, up 4.39 cents compared to last week.

Wheat

Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.53 to $6.10.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated spring wheat headed to be 54% compared to 32% last week, 58% last year, and a 5-year average of 54%. The report estimated winter wheat harvested to be 59% compared to 48% last week, 51% last year, and a 5-year average of 51%. For the week of June 26- July 2, 2026, net sales of  313,100 metric tons (MT) for 2026/2027 primarily for South Korea (101,000 MT), Nigeria (100,000 MT), Mexico (68,600 MT, including decreases of 6,300 MT), Japan (47,900 MT), and Ecuador (35,200 MT, including 32,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (32,000 MT) and Italy (14,200 MT). Exports of 194,200 MT were to Mexico (98,500 MT), Ecuador (35,200 MT), the Dominican Republic (32,000 MT), Colombia (27,800 MT), and Canada (600 MT).

Additional Information

Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news

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