by Aaron Smith, Crops Marketing Specialist
March 28, 2025
Overview
Cotton and soybeans were up; corn and wheat were down for the week.
The 2025 production season has just begun; however, producers should be considering marketing strategies for the upcoming year. Producers looking to develop a marketing plan for the 2025 crop have three primary factors to consider – price, timing/quantity, and marketing tool. Setting price targets will be different for every operation. The starting point should be estimating the cost of production for each commodity grown on the farm to know when sales are profitable and when they are not. This should continue throughout the year as more information is revealed about production costs (examples: replanting, additional sprays or fertilizer applications) and yields (up or down from the initial target yield). Reasonable price expectations should be set to trigger sales. We all want to sell corn at $8/bu but is that a realistic target based on the current market environment.
Timing and quantity of sales should be reflective of access to storage. Farmers that can store all or most of their annual production can be more patient with their marketing plan, holding crops past the harvest season and making final sales, once the majority of production risk has been removed. For farms that do not have access to storage a more aggressive marketing approach is likely warranted as sales will need to be completed within the harvest interval. Plans need to be flexible and determine what the market is offering. A reasonable early season target for pricing, if storage is not available is pre-planting: 10-25%, March–July: 25-75%, and August-Harvest: 75% – 100%. Should prices start to rally, incremental pricing well spread out the risk of missing sales during the rally. For example, selling an additional 5-10% of estimated production for each 25-cent rally in the corn market will help take some of the emotion out of marketing decision and avoid missing out on sales opportunities. You will not hit a home run, but you will also avoid the strike out, using a baseball analogy. It is important to set a limit on how much production you want to be priced at a specific time of the year to avoid exchanging production risk for price risk.
There are many ways to establish a price or mitigate price risk. Futures, options, cash contracts, and managed products are all popular marketing tools. Strategies and tools should be used based on current market information as certain tools work better under different market conditions. It is important for farmers, or who they designate to market their crops, to have a robust toolbox with knowledge on several marketing tools. Continuing education is a necessity for today’s row crop marketers.
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 103.70 | 103.71 | 0.01 |
| Crude Oil | 68.29 | 69.36 | 1.07 |
| DJIA | 41,890 | 41,584 | -306 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 20 under to 25 over, with an average of 10 over the May futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending March 21 was 1.053 million barrels per day, down 52,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 27.35 million barrels, up 0.775 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for March 14-20 were net sales of 40.9 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 2% compared to last week at 65.0 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 85% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 86%. Cash prices ranged from $4.20 to $4.85 at elevators and barge points. May 2025 corn futures closed at $4.53, down 11 cents since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 corn futures traded between $4.42 and $4.66. July 2025 corn futures closed at $4.60, down 11 cents since last Friday.
| Corn | May 25 | Change | Dec 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.53 | -$0.11 | $4.42 | -$0.09 |
| Support | $4.37 | -$0.18 | $4.35 | -$0.13 |
| Resistance | $4.61 | -$0.14 | $4.47 | -$0.08 |
| 20 Day MA | $4.60 | -$0.08 | $4.50 | -$0.05 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.83 | -$0.03 | $4.60 | $0.00 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.67 | $0.01 | $4.50 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week High | $4.77 | -$0.28 | $4.57 | -$0.18 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.42 | $0.00 | $4.37 | -$0.04 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
May/Jul and May/Dec future spreads were 7 and -11 cents. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.42, down 9 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.50 December 2025 Put Option costing 37 cents establishing a $4.13 futures floor.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee the average soybean basis strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 33 under to 22 over the May futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 2 over. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 12.4 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 0.8 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 56% compared to last week at 33.9 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 92% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 93%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.66 to $10.45. May 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.23, up 14 cents since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 soybean futures traded between $9.97 and $10.23. The May soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.26 at the end of the week. July 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.37, up 16 cents since last Friday.
| Soybeans | May 25 | Change | Nov 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $10.23 | $0.14 | $10.29 | $0.22 |
| Support | $10.04 | $0.07 | $10.10 | $0.13 |
| Resistance | $10.33 | $0.11 | $10.38 | $0.20 |
| 20 Day MA | $10.11 | -$0.08 | $10.14 | -$0.07 |
| 50 Day MA | $10.39 | -$0.04 | $10.36 | -$0.02 |
| 100 Day MA | $10.27 | $0.00 | $10.25 | -$0.01 |
| 4-Week High | $10.36 | -$0.25 | $10.34 | -$0.28 |
| 4-Week Low | $9.91 | $0.00 | $9.96 | $0.00 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
May/Jul and May/Nov future spreads were 14 and 6 cents. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.29, up 22 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.40 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 62 cents and set a $9.78 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.33 at the end of the week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for March 28 were 64.40 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 66.40 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) decreased 0.97 cents to 53.66 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 84,400 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 41,600 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 12% compared to last week at 393,400 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 100% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 101%. May 2025 cotton futures closed at 66.9 cents, up 1.63 cents since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 cotton futures traded between 64.83 and 67.1 cents. July 2025 cotton futures closed at 68.1 cents, up 1.31 cents since last Friday.
| Cotton | May 25 | Change | Dec 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 66.90 | 1.63 | 70.09 | 1.43 |
| Support | 66.23 | 1.70 | 69.58 | 1.47 |
| Resistance | 67.43 | 0.12 | 70.54 | 0.23 |
| 20 Day MA | 65.90 | -0.19 | 68.93 | 0.17 |
| 50 Day MA | 67.00 | -0.29 | 69.03 | 0.01 |
| 100 Day MA | 69.03 | -0.39 | 69.98 | -0.15 |
| 4-Week High | 67.80 | -0.39 | 70.43 | 0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | 62.54 | 0.00 | 66.00 | 0.00 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Up | + |
May/Jul and May/Dec cotton futures spreads were 1.2 cents and 3.19 cents. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 70.09 cents, up 1.43 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 71 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 5 cents establishing a 66-cent futures floor.
Wheat
Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 3.7 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 0.4 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 9% compared to last week at 15.8 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 93% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 101%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.72 to $4.99. May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.28, down 30 cents since last Friday. The May wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.17. May 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.17 and $5.63 this week.
| Wheat | May 25 | Change | Jul 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $5.28 | -$0.30 | $5.42 | -$0.32 |
| Support | $5.10 | -$0.38 | $5.25 | -$0.40 |
| Resistance | $5.41 | -$0.26 | $5.57 | -$0.26 |
| 20 Day MA | $5.51 | -$0.10 | $5.67 | -$0.09 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.69 | -$0.01 | $5.82 | -$0.01 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.66 | -$0.04 | $5.77 | -$0.02 |
| 4-Week High | $5.75 | -$0.29 | $5.91 | -$0.26 |
| 4-Week Low | $5.17 | -$0.13 | $5.32 | -$0.12 |
| Technical Trend | Down | – | Down | – |
May/Jul and May/Sep future spreads were 14 and 31 cents. July cash contracts at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.02 to $5.58. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.42, down 32 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.45 July 2025 Put Option costing 33 cents establishing a $5.12 futures floor. September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.59, down 32 cents since last Friday.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu.