by Aaron Smith, Crops Marketing Specialist
July 18, 2025
Overview
Corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat were up for the week.
Corn and soybean futures prices set new harvest contract lows this week before rallying at the end of the week to close up. Have we set a futures price low for the year? It’s likely too early to tell. Although corn and soybean futures prices were up for the week, we should remember the previous week had declines in the December corn contract of 25 cents and November soybean contract of 42 cents. The market recovered roughly only half of the previous week’s losses. The past two weeks have seen both lower lows and lower highs, which generally does not indicate an imminent market breakout higher. However, that being said there are some indications that we are approaching a low or a floor (baring something unforeseen). Options premiums provide a reasonable indication that prices below $4.00 for corn and below $10.00 are not likely to be maintained. Differed futures contracts also provide an indication that better prices may be ahead. A move towards higher prices will need to be supported with underlying fundamental data (yield, acreage, production, demand). As such, it is likely that harvest futures prices will continue to trade in the recent ranges of $4.10 to $4.40 and $10.00 to $10.60 until at least August.
Cotton futures price prospects are improving or at least building a foundation for a move into the low 70 cent range. December cotton futures had higher lows and higher highs in this week’s trading. While substantial resistance is present at 70 cents, it appears the market is expecting that USDA acreage estimates are too high and will be adjusted lower, particularly in the Mississippi region. While acreage will be important abandonment in the southern plains (especially Texas) and yield estimates will provide the market with information to move higher or remain in the sub 70 cent trading range that futures markets have been marred in for most of 2025.
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 97.50 | 98.20 | 0.70 |
| Crude Oil | 68.59 | 67.3 | -1.29 |
| DJIA | 44,391 | 44,342 | -49 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 5 under to 28 over, with an average of 11 over the September futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending July 11 was 1.087 million barrels per day, up 2,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 23.635 million barrels, down 0.324 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for July 4-10 were net sales of 3.8 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year – a marketing year low – and 22.3 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 28% compared to last week at 47.7 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 99% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 102%. Cash prices ranged from $3.95 to $4.36 at elevators and barge points. September 2025 corn futures closed at $4.08, up 12 cents since last Friday. For the week, September 2025 corn futures traded between $3.91 and $4.11. Sep/Dec and Sep/Mar future spreads were 19 and 36 cents.
| Corn | Sep 25 | Change | Dec 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.08 | $0.12 | $4.27 | $0.15 |
| Support | $3.98 | $0.04 | $4.17 | $0.08 |
| Resistance | $4.15 | $0.13 | $4.35 | $0.16 |
| 20 Day MA | $4.07 | -$0.05 | $4.24 | -$0.04 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.20 | -$0.03 | $4.35 | -$0.02 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.32 | -$0.04 | $4.43 | -$0.03 |
| 4-Week High | $4.31 | $0.00 | $4.47 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $3.91 | -$0.03 | $4.07 | -$0.04 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 74% good-to-excellent and 5% poor-to-very poor; corn silking at 34% compared to 18% last week, 39% last year, and a 5-year average of 33%; and corn dough at 7% compared to 3% last week, 7% last year, and a 5-year average of 5%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 69% good-to-excellent and 8% poor-to-very poor; corn silking at 78% compared to 64% last week, 79% last year, and a 5-year average of 73%; and corn dough at 30% compared to 14% last week, 27% last year, and a 5-year average of 23%. This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $3.78 to $4.14 at elevators and barge points. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.27, up 15 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.30 December 2025 Put Option costing 20 cents establishing a $4.10 futures floor. March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.44, up 15 cents since last Friday.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 48 under to 20 over the August futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 14 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 10.0 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 19.5 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 30% compared to last week at 10.2 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 100% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 102%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.46 to $10.48. August 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.27, up 23 cents since last Friday. For the week, August 2025 soybean futures traded between $9.93 and $10.37. The September soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.5 at the end of the week. September 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.21, up 26 cents since last Friday. Aug/Sep and Aug/Nov future spreads were -6 and 8 cents.
| Soybeans | Aug 25 | Change | Nov 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $10.27 | $0.23 | $10.35 | $0.28 |
| Support | $10.11 | $0.14 | $10.17 | $0.20 |
| Resistance | $10.45 | $0.24 | $10.52 | $0.29 |
| 20 Day MA | $10.29 | -$0.13 | $10.25 | -$0.10 |
| 50 Day MA | $10.43 | -$0.03 | $10.34 | -$0.01 |
| 100 Day MA | $10.37 | -$0.03 | $10.27 | -$0.02 |
| 4-Week High | $10.82 | $0.00 | $10.74 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $9.93 | -$0.06 | $9.98 | -$0.04 |
| Technical Trend | Up | + | Up | + |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 70% good-to-excellent and 5% poor-to-very poor; soybeans blooming at 47% compared to 32% last week, 49% last year, and a 5-year average of 47%; and soybeans setting pods at 15% compared to 8% last week, 17% last year, and a 5-year average of 14%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 68% good-to-excellent compared to 9% poor-to-very poor; soybeans blooming at 51% compared to 41% last week, 60% last year, and a 5-year average of 47%; and soybeans setting pods at 21% compared to 12% last week, 29% last year, and a 5-year average of 19%. Oct/Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $9.61 to $10.31 for the week. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.35, up 28 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.40 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 35 cents and set a $10.05 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.42 at the end of the week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for July 18 were 65.87 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 67.87 cents/lb (31-3-35). Upland cotton adjusted world price (AWP) increased 0.01 cents to 54.72 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 5,500 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 73,000 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 35% compared to last week at 156,400 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 107% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 116%.
| Cotton | Dec 25 | Change | Mar 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 68.68 | 1.26 | 69.98 | 1.23 |
| Support | 67.97 | 0.94 | 69.38 | 1.26 |
| Resistance | 69.51 | 1.06 | 70.68 | 0.95 |
| 20 Day MA | 68.13 | 0.26 | 69.43 | 0.28 |
| 50 Day MA | 68.16 | -0.03 | 69.49 | -0.02 |
| 100 Day MA | 68.47 | -0.04 | 69.69 | -0.03 |
| 4-Week High | 69.52 | 0.00 | 70.79 | 0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | 66.27 | 0.00 | 67.51 | 0.00 |
| Technical Trend | Flat | = | Flat | = |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 54% good-to-excellent and 17% poor-to-very poor; cotton squaring at 61% compared to 48% last week, 62% last year, and a 5-year average of 62%; and cotton setting bolls at 23% compared to 14% last week, 26% last year, and a 5-year average of 22%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 44% good-to-excellent and 26% poor-to-very poor; cotton squaring at 62% compared to 57% last week, 82% last year, and a 5-year average of 74%; and cotton setting bolls at 17% compared to 7% last week, 30% last year, and a 5-year average of 24%. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 68.68 cents, up 1.26 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 cotton futures traded between 67.36 and 69.15 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.3 cents and 2.33 cents. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 69 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 2.77 cents establishing a 65.29 cent futures floor. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 69.98 cents, up 1.23 cents since last Friday. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 71.01 cents, up 1.21 cents since last Friday.
Wheat
Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 18.2 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 3% compared to last week at 15.9 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 36% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2025/26 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 35%. Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat harvested at 63% compared to 53% last week, 70% last year, and a 5-year average of 64%; spring wheat condition at 54% good-to-excellent and 13% poor-to-very poor; and spring wheat headed at 78% compared to 61% last week, 74% last year, and a 5-year average of 75%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.78 to $5.24.
| Wheat | Sep 25 | Change | Jul 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $5.46 | $0.01 | $6.02 | $0.01 |
| Support | $5.25 | -$0.10 | $5.85 | -$0.09 |
| Resistance | $5.60 | -$0.04 | $6.13 | -$0.08 |
| 20 Day MA | $5.48 | -$0.06 | $6.06 | -$0.06 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.50 | -$0.01 | $6.09 | -$0.01 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.62 | -$0.04 | $6.17 | -$0.03 |
| 4-Week High | $5.94 | $0.00 | $6.50 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $5.32 | -$0.02 | $5.89 | -$0.04 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.46, up 1 cent since last Friday. September 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.32 and $5.50 this week. Sep/Dec and Sep/Jul future spreads were 21 and 56 cents. The September wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.34. December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.67, up 2 cents since last Friday. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.02, up 1 cent since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $6.05 July 2026 Put Option costing 53 cents establishing a $5.52 futures floor.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu.