Crop Comments

by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist

April 24, 2026

Overview

Corn and Wheat up for the week; Soybeans and Cotton down for the week

Rising energy and macroeconomic pressures continue to shape the outlook for producers, with diesel averaging $5.47 per gallon (nearly $1.90 higher than a year ago) and crude oil up $11 per barrel compared to last week, pointing to higher operating and input costs. At the same time, the U.S. dollar strengthened to 98.53 and the DJIA fell 233 points, creating potential headwinds for export demand and increasing market volatility. On the ground, Tennessee planting is well ahead of normal for corn (64%) and soybeans (50%), while local basis levels remain firm across corn and soybean markets, providing some near‑term price support despite broader cost pressures. I hope everyone has a great weekend!

Cattle Impacts

There has been some discussion about Mexican cattle returning to the U.S. market. If the border does reopen, I would expect imports to be lower than in past years. The reason is two-fold, firstly, Mexico has invested more heavily in its own feeding and finishing infrastructure with their increased domestic supply. Secondly, historically, Mexican feeder cattle come into the U.S. mainly during the spring and fall. As a result, an opening at this time may not dramatically increase US feeding supplies. However, if a meaningful volume of cattle does come across the border, it could increase overall feed demand in the US, which has the potential to support or increase feed prices, even if cattle prices feel some short‑term pressure.

Fuel

The table below shows that regular gasoline is priced at $4.06 per gallon, with mid‑grade at $4.56 and premium at $4.93, while diesel stands noticeably higher at $5.47; E85 remains the lowest‑priced option at $3.20. Relative to one week ago, regular, mid‑grade, and premium gasoline are slightly lower, and diesel has declined markedly from $5.68, indicating some short‑term easing. Month‑over‑month, however, all fuels are higher, reflecting upward momentum over the past several weeks. The most striking comparison is year‑over‑year: regular gasoline is nearly $0.90 higher than a year ago, premium is up by more than $0.90, diesel has surged by almost $1.90, and E85 has increased by more than $0.50, highlighting the significant rise in energy costs.

Fuel	Regular	Mid-Grade	Premium	Diesel	E85
Current Avg.	$4.06	$4.56	$4.93	$5.47	$3.20
Yesterday Avg.	$4.03	$4.54	$4.91	$5.47	$3.17
Week Ago Avg.	$4.08	$4.59	$4.95	$5.59	$3.21
Month Ago Avg.	$3.98	$4.49	$4.85	$5.35	$3.15
Year Ago Avg.	$3.17	$3.66	$4.01	$3.56	$2.64

Macros

The table below highlights the macroeconomic signals. The higher crude oil price, up $11 per barrel, signals increasing energy costs, which tend to flow through to diesel, fertilizer, chemicals, irrigation, and freight, raising per‑acre production and harvest costs. The firmer U.S. dollar makes U.S. crops more expensive in export markets, potentially weakening demand and putting pressure on futures and cash prices, especially for export‑oriented commodities like soybeans, corn, cotton, and wheat. Meanwhile, the decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average points to broader market uncertainty, which can spill into commodity markets through fund positioning, volatility, and tighter credit conditions. Taken together, this environment suggests producers should pay close attention to cost control, update breakeven levels, and consider marketing and risk‑management strategies, as rising expenses and potential export headwinds can compress margins even when prices appear favorable on the surface.

Indicator	Previous	Current	Change
USD Index	98.08	98.53	0.45
Crude Oil	83.34	94.34	11.00
DJIA	49412	49179	-233

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 15 cents under to 31 cents over, with an average of 13 cents over with the May futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending April 17th was 1.04 million barrels, down 80,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 26.948 million barrels, up 24,249 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.37 to $5.05 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.68, which is up 7 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 corn futures traded between $4.59 and $4.71.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn emerged to be 4% compared to 2% last year, and a 5-year average of 2%; corn planted to be 11% compared to 5% last week,  11% last year, and a 5-year average of 9%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated corn emerged to be 23% compared to 3% last year, and a 5-year average of 4%; corn planted to be 64% compared to 42% last week,  22% last year, and a 5-year average of 24%. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.42 to $4.89 at elevators and barge points. For the week of April 10-16, 2026, there were net sales of 1,316,700 MT for 2025/2026, down 6% from the previous week, but up 3% from the prior 4-week average. Total net sales of 440,100 MT for 2026/2027 were for Mexico. Exports of 1,952,500 MT were up 25% from the previous week and 11% from the prior 4-week average. December corn futures closed at $4.84, up 7 cents from last week.

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 5 under to 42 over the May futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 15 cents over. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $11.55 to $12.17. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.50, down 2 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $11.47 and $11.70.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybeans planted to be 12% compared to 6% last week, 7% last year, and a 5-year average of 5%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated soybeans planted to be 50% compared to 36% last week, 14% last year, and a 5-year average of 9%. For the week of April 10-16, 2026, there were net sales of 364,600 MT for 2025/2026, up 47% from the previous week, but down 7% from the prior 4-week average. Total net sales of 5,000 MT for 2026/2027 were for Malaysia. Exports of 768,100 MT were down 6% from the previous week and 12% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (446,200 MT), Egypt (117,600 MT), Japan (76,900 MT), Indonesia (47,800 MT), and Mexico (41,800 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.56, unchanged compared to last week.

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for April 23rd were up compared to last week. Prices were 76.45 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 81.2 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both up 3.44 cents compared to last week’s prices.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton planted to be 11% compared to 7% last week, 10% last year, and a 5-year average of 10%. %. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton planted to be 8% compared to 3% last week, 2% last year, and a 5-year average of 1%. For the week April 10-16, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland totaling 19,900 RB for 2025/2026, down 26% from the previous week and 55% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 57,100 RB for 2026/2027 reported for Vietnam (17,600 RB), Indonesia (17,600 RB), Pakistan (13,200 RB), and Malaysia (8,800 RB), were offset by reductions for South Korea (200 RB). Exports of 296,400 RB were down 3% from the previous week and 16% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (89,000 RB), Pakistan (46,600 RB), India (25,100 RB), Bangladesh (22,000 RB), and Indonesia (21,300 RB). For the week, May 2026 cotton futures closed at 77. cents, down .4 cents compared to last week. December 2026 cotton futures closed at 80.58 cents, up .08 cents compared to last week.

Wheat

Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.82 to $6.06.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated spring wheat emerged to be 2% compared to 2% last year, and a 5-year average of 2%; spring wheat planted to be 12% compared to 6% last week, 16% last year, and a 5-year average of 12%. The report estimated winter wheat headed to be 20% compared to 11% last week, 14% last year, and a 5-year average of 12%. For the week of April 10-16, 2026, net sales of 129,000 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 29% from the previous week, but down 25% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 8,000 MT for 2026/2027 were reported for South Korea (6,000 MT) and Honduras (2,000 MT). Exports of 524,100 MT were up 68% from the previous week and 49% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (96,000 MT), Mexico (90,700 MT), Thailand (65,400 MT), Indonesia (57,800 MT), and Nigeria (51,100 MT). July 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.16, up 17 cents compared to last week. July 2026 wheat futures traded between $5.98 and $6.22 this week. September 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.30, up 19 cents compared to last week.

Additional Information

Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news

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