by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist
March 20, 2026
Overview
Cotton up for the week; Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat down for the week
This week the markets started lower across all months. There was some steam in the middle of the week, but the steam gave out Thursday and Friday. Hence, why most commodities are down this week, some more than others. I think some of this turbulence leans more short term in the coming weeks.
The last few weeks I had suggested that producers take advantage of the price levels that were on the board. Those prices have disappeared in corn, wheat, and soybeans. But, on the cotton side, prices have rallied in the last few weeks, and I would suggest looking at locking in prices in case of downside pressure.
According to AAA national fuel prices, diesel this week is $5.15 up from $4.89. Regular gas this week is $3.91 up from $3.63.
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 100.46 | 99.65 | -0.81 |
| Crude Oil | 98.27 | 97.96 | -0.31 |
| DJIA | 46558 | 45489 | -1069 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) weakened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 25 cents under to 27 cents over, with an average of 7 cents over with the May futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending March 13th was 1.093 million barrels, down 33,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 26.407 million barrels, up 827,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.29 to $5.00 (highest price since April of 2025) at elevators and barge points. On Friday, September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.78, which is down 1 cent compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 corn futures traded between $4.64 and $4.83.
| Corn | Sep 26 | Change | Dec 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.78 | -$0.01 | $4.90 | -$0.01 |
| Support | $4.78 | $0.04 | $4.91 | $0.05 |
| Resistance | $4.84 | $0.03 | $4.96 | $0.02 |
| 20 Day MA | $4.65 | $0.07 | $4.78 | $0.06 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.51 | $0.02 | $4.65 | $0.03 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.52 | $0.01 | $4.65 | $0.02 |
| 4-Week High | $4.88 | $0.00 | $4.98 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.47 | $0.03 | $4.62 | $0.03 |
| Technical Trend | DOWN | = | DOWN | = |
For the week of March 6-12, 2026, there were net sales of 1,171,800 MT for 2025/2026, down 22% from the previous week and 18% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 1,749,800 MT, up 4% from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.34 to $5.00 at elevators and barge points. December corn futures closed at $4.90, which is 1 cent lower compared to last week.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis weakened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 35 under to 26 over the May futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 4 cents over. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $11.20 to $11.94. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.43, down 26 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $11.19 and $11.64.
| Soybeans | Sep 26 | Change | Nov 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $11.43 | -$0.26 | $11.41 | -$0.20 |
| Support | $11.39 | -$0.23 | $11.35 | -$0.19 |
| Resistance | $11.54 | -$0.22 | $11.50 | -$0.18 |
| 20 Day MA | $11.42 | $0.04 | $11.38 | $0.05 |
| 50 Day MA | $11.07 | $0.07 | $11.07 | $0.06 |
| 100 Day MA | $11.02 | $0.03 | $11.03 | $0.03 |
| 4-Week High | $11.83 | $0.00 | $11.74 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $11.12 | $0.05 | $11.08 | $0.04 |
| Technical Trend | DOWN | = | DOWN | = |
For the week of March 6-12, 2026, there were net sales of 298,200 MT for 2025/2026. down 35% from the previous week and 42% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 906,500 MT, down 9% from the previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (545,900 MT), Egypt (164,900 MT), Mexico (90,500 MT), Indonesia (24,800 MT), and Saudi Arabia (20,100 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.41, down 20 cents compared to last week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for March 19th were up compared to last week. Prices were down to 65.67 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 70.42 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both up 2.53 cents compared to last week’s prices.
| Cotton | May 26 | Change | Dec 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 67.31 | 1.46 | 71.96 | 1.63 |
| Support | 67.20 | 1.96 | 71.60 | 1.80 |
| Resistance | 68.45 | 2.10 | 72.52 | 1.68 |
| 20 Day MA | 65.78 | 0.97 | 70.08 | 0.96 |
| 50 Day MA | 65.29 | 0.22 | 69.22 | 0.36 |
| 100 Day MA | 65.57 | 0.06 | 68.59 | 0.21 |
| 4-Week High | 69.22 | 2.84 | 73.05 | 2.23 |
| 4-Week Low | 63.62 | 0.21 | 68.35 | 0.49 |
| Technical Trend | UP | = | UP | = |
For the week March 6-12, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland totaling 196,700 RB for 2025/2026, down 22% from the previous week and 30% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 122,200 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for China (48,600 RB), Pakistan (22,000 RB), Vietnam (20,100 RB), Turkey (17,600 RB), and South Korea (6,200 RB). Exports of 273,900 RB, down 26% from the previous week, but up 8% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (93,700 RB), Pakistan (36,400 RB), Turkey (23,200 RB), China (18,500 RB), and Mexico (17,700 RB). For the week, May 2026 cotton futures closed at 67.31cents, up 1.46 cents compared to last week. December 2026 cotton futures closed at 71.96 cents, up 1.63 cents compared to last week.
Wheat
Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.80 to $5.98.
| Wheat | Jul 26 | Change | Sep 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $6.07 | -$0.17 | $6.20 | -$0.17 |
| Support | $6.02 | -$0.10 | $6.15 | -$0.09 |
| Resistance | $6.16 | -$0.15 | $6.30 | -$0.13 |
| 20 Day MA | $6.00 | $0.11 | $6.12 | $0.12 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.63 | $0.01 | $5.82 | $0.08 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.61 | $0.03 | $5.74 | $0.03 |
| 4-Week High | $6.50 | $0.01 | $6.60 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $5.72 | $0.24 | $5.84 | $0.24 |
| Technical Trend | DOWN | = | DOWN | = |
For the week March 6-12, 2026, there was total net sales of 189,900 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026, down 58% from the previous week and 36% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 212,100 MT for 2026/2027 were primarily for the Philippines (100,000 MT), Mexico (54,700 MT), South Korea (32,000 MT), unknown destinations (18,000 MT), and Jamaica (6,600 MT). Exports of 383,100 MT, down 11% from the previous week and 7% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (92,100 MT), the Philippines (62,600 MT), Bangladesh (56,700 MT), South Korea (47,400 MT), and the Dominican Republic (40,000 MT). July 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.07, down 17 cents compared to last week. July 2026 wheat futures traded between $5.97 and $6.26 this week. September 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.20, down 17 cents compared to last week.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at cmart113@utk.edu.