Crop Comments

by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist

July 2, 2026

Overview

orn, Cotton, and Wheat up for the week; Soybeans down for the week

This week’s crop comments highlight a mixed but generally supportive outlook for row crop producers. USDA’s May Prices Received report showed the overall crop production index rising 7.2% from April and 12% above a year ago, with corn prices averaging $4.48 per bushel, up 17 cents from the previous month. Demand indicators remained encouraging, as corn used for fuel alcohol production increased 10% from April and ethanol production topped 1.1 million barrels per day. Input costs provided some relief, with diesel prices falling nearly 11% over the past month, although they remain 31% higher than a year ago. In Tennessee, corn and soybean basis levels strengthened across many locations, while crop conditions continue to outperform national averages, with 74% of Tennessee corn and 72% of Tennessee soybeans rated good-to-excellent. Happy 4th of July to everyone and I hope everyone has a great extended weekend!

Agricultural Prices

The USDA’s May Prices Received by Farmers report showed strengthening crop prices, with the overall crop production index rising to 116.7, up 7.2% from April and 12% above May 2025. Gains were recorded across the grain and oilseed, vegetable and melon, fruit and tree nut, and other crop categories. The grain and oilseed index increased to 81.4, up 2.4% from the previous month and 0.7% higher than a year ago, supported by stronger oilseed, feed grain, and food grain prices. The feed grain index reached 74.7, rising 3.8% from April but remaining 3.6% below its May 2025 level. Corn prices averaged $4.48 per bushel in May, an increase of 17 cents from April, reflecting improved market conditions, although prices remained 16 cents below those received by farmers one year earlier. These higher month-to-month prices provide some support for producer revenues, particularly for corn growers, but values continue to lag year-ago levels, highlighting ongoing challenges for farm profitability.

Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production

Total corn consumed for alcohol and other uses reached 524 million bushels in May 2026, up 9% from April 2026 and 5% above May 2025 levels. Of the total corn used during the month, 92.0% was consumed for alcohol production and 8.0% for other purposes. Corn used for beverage alcohol totaled 3.98 million bushels, down 7% from April but 5% higher than a year earlier, while corn used for fuel alcohol production increased to 472 million bushels, up 10% from April and 6% from May 2025. May included 31 days compared to 30 days in April, which contributed to higher monthly usage. Dry milling accounted for 92.0% of fuel alcohol production, with wet milling responsible for the remaining 8.0%. Co-product production also strengthened during the month, with distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) totaling 1.77 million tons, up 11% from April but slightly below May 2025. Distillers wet grains (DWG) production reached 1.37 million tons, up 6% from the previous month and 12% from a year ago. Wet mill corn gluten feed production rose to 292,461 tons, increasing 20% from April and 10% from May 2025, while wet corn gluten feed containing 40% to 60% moisture totaled 190,178 tons, up 1% from April but down 5% from the previous year.

Fuel

The table shows that fuel prices have continued to ease over the past month, with current average prices for regular gasoline ($3.42/gallon), mid-grade gasoline ($3.90/gallon), premium gasoline ($4.31/gallon), and diesel ($4.48/gallon) all lower than their levels one week and one month ago. Diesel prices have declined from $5.02 per gallon a month ago to $4.48 per gallon currently, representing a decrease of nearly 11%. Despite these recent declines, fuel prices remain well above year-ago levels, with diesel averaging 31% higher than the $3.43 per gallon recorded a year earlier. Lower fuel prices can help reduce operating expenses during planting, harvesting, and grain hauling, providing some relief to producers facing tight margins. However, diesel costs remain elevated compared to last year, meaning energy expenses continue to play a significant role in shaping production costs, profitability, and marketing decisions across major row crop enterprises.

Fuel	Regular	Mid-Grade	Premium	Diesel
Current Avg.	$3.42	$3.90	$4.31	$4.48
Yesterday Avg.	$3.43	$3.91	$4.32	$4.50
Week Ago Avg.	$3.44	$3.92	$4.32	$4.60
Month Ago Avg.	$3.90	$4.37	$4.77	$5.02
Year Ago Avg.	$2.77	$3.22	$3.62	$3.43

Indicator	Previous	Current	Change
USD Index	101.32	100.86	-0.46
Crude Oil	69.52	68.45	-1.07
DJIA	51876	52900	1024

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 15 cents under to 17 cents over, with an average of 2 cents over the July futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending June 26th was 1.117 million barrels, up 27,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 24.690 million barrels, up 105,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $3.90 to $4.58 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.23, which is up 1 cent compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 corn futures traded between $4.21 and $4.27.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 67% good-to-excellent (down 1% from last week) and 8% poor-to-very poor (up 2% from last week); corn silking to be 9% compared to 5% last week, 7% last year, and a 5-year average of 6%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 74% good-to-excellent (up 1% from last week) and 4% poor-to-very poor (down 2% from last week); corn silking to be 66% compared to 44% last week, 43% last year, and a 5-year average of 36%. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4 to $4.42 at elevators and barge points. For the week of June 19-25, 2026, net sales of 732,100 MT for 2025/2026 were down 2% from the previous week and 23% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 767,800 MT for 2026/2027 were primarily for Mexico (272,700 MT), unknown destinations (189,500 MT), South Korea (131,000 MT), Colombia (97,000 MT), and Honduras (44,500 MT). Exports of 1,816,500 MT were up 21% from the previous week and 5% from the prior 4-week average. December corn futures closed at $4.41, unchanged from last week.

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 40 under to 17 over the July futures contract, with an average basis of 8 under at the end of the week. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $10.69 to $11.59. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.36, down 5 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $11.10 and $11.46.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 65% good-to-excellent (down 1% from last week) and 8% poor-to-very poor (up 2% from last week); soybean emerged to be 96% compared to 93% last week, 93% last year, and a 5-year average of 95%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 72% good-to-excellent (down 2% from last week) compared to 4% poor-to-very poor (up 1% from last week); emerged to be 95% compared to 90% last week, 78% last year, and a 5-year average of 84%. For the week of June 19-25, 2026, there were net sales of  41,800 MT for 2025/2026 (a marketing-year low) were down 91% from the previous week and 88% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 182,500 MT for 2026/2027 were reported for Mexico (182,100 MT) and Vietnam (400 MT). Exports of 388,000 MT were up 79% from the previous week, but down 11% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (118,200 MT), Japan (102,200 MT), China (65,400 MT), Egypt (54,100 MT), and Indonesia (17,600 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.48, down 8 cents compared to last week.

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for July 1st were up compared to last week. Prices were 72.05 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 76.8 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both up .88 cents compared to last week’s prices.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 48% good-to-excellent (down 5% from last week) and 16% poor-to-very poor (up 3% from last week); cotton squaring to be 37% compared to 27% last week, 38% last year, and a 5-year average of 36%; cotton planted to be 97% compared to 92% last week, 95% last year, and a 5-year average of 97%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 61% good-to-excellent (down 1% from last week) and 9% poor-to-very poor (down 1% from last week); cotton squaring to be 50% compared to 34% last week, 34% last year, and a 5-year average of 39%; cotton planted to be 99% compared to 99% last week, 92% last year, and a 5-year average of 98%. For the week June 19-25, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland 49,000 RB for 2025/2026 were down 42% from the previous week and 70% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 44,100 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for Honduras (11,300 RB), Guatemala (9,300 RB), Turkey (6,800 RB), Mexico (5,200 RB), and Peru (4,100 RB). Exports of 218,800 RB were down 27 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (57,300 RB), Turkey (49,800 RB), Pakistan (31,600 RB), Bangladesh (14,000 RB), and Mexico (12,000 RB). For the week, December 2026 cotton futures closed at 77.12 cents, up .74 cents compared to last week. March 2027 cotton futures closed at 78.52 cents, up .78 cents compared to last week.

Wheat

Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.20 to $5.89.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated spring wheat headed to be 32% compared to 16% last week, 35% last year, and a 5-year average of 34%. The report estimated winter wheat harvested to be 48% compared to 40% last week, 34% last year, and a 5-year average of 39%. For the week of June 19-25, 2026, net sales of  300,100 metric tons (MT) for 2026/2027 primarily for Mexico (79,700 MT, including decreases of 22,700 MT), unknown destinations (68,200 MT, including decreases of 6,900 MT), Colombia (31,200 MT, including 28,000 MT

switched from unknown destinations), Italy (30,000 MT), and Guatemala (24,500 MT, including 18,100 MT switched from unknown destinations, 7,100 MT switched from El Salvador, and decreases of 1,700 MT), were offset by reductions for El Salvador (600 MT) and Canada (200 MT). Exports of 364,800 MT were primarily to South Korea (88,400 MT), Mexico (72,800 MT), the Philippines (66,000 MT), Japan (43,700 MT), and Colombia (31,200 MT).

Additional Information

Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news

If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at cmart113@utk.edu.