by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
September 25, 2026
Overview
Corn steady, Wheat down, Soybean and Cotton up for the week
Fuel
Gas prices declined this week ever so modestly compared to last week. Just the fact prices did not continue increasing by leaps and bounds could be considered a win for the energy consumer. On the diesel side, the price increased one cent per gallon, which keeps diesel trading at record prices. There has been considerable internet chatter of independent truckers staging a strike on October 1. At this time, there is no confirmation of such a strike as truckers still have to feed their dependents and pay bills. Strike or no strike, haulers must pass on the increase in freight cost to customers and it would seem fuel price alone would increase freight $1 per mile compared to one year ago.
| Fuel | Regular | Mid-Grade | Premium | Diesel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Avg. | $4.06 | $4.52 | $4.92 | $6.18 |
| Yesterday Avg. | $4.06 | $4.52 | $4.92 | $6.19 |
| Week Ago Avg. | $4.08 | $4.55 | $4.96 | $6.17 |
| Month Ago Avg. | $3.66 | $4.14 | $4.54 | $5.34 |
| Year Ago Avg. | $2.75 | $3.21 | $3.61 | $3.40 |
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 100.24 | 101.04 | 0.80 |
| Crude Oil | 96.06 | 92.29 | -3.77 |
| DJIA | 51667 | 51762 | 94 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) declined 4 cents from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 55 cents under to 28 cents under, with an average of 42 cents under the December futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending September 18th was 1.028 million barrels, down 71 million barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 24,683 million barrels, down 537,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.74 to $5.14 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, December 2026 corn futures closed at $5.28, which is no change compared to last week. For the week, December 2026 corn futures traded between $5.15 and $5.45.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 57% good-to-excellent (no change from last week) and 17% poor-to-very poor (no change from last week); corn mature to be 58% compared to 42% last week, 54% last year, and a 5-year average of 55%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 81% good-to-excellent (up 1% from last week) and 4% poor-to-very poor (no change from last week); corn harvested to be 62% compared to 44% last week, 59% last year, and a 5-year average of 42%. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.82 to $5.33 at elevators and barge points.For the week of September 11-September 17, 2026, net sales of 838,300 MT for 2026/2027 primarily for Japan (247,000 MT), Mexico (211,000 MT), Colombia (201,300 MT), Spain (72,400 MT), and Italy (52,600 MT. Exports of 1,900,000 MT were primarily to Japan (555,100 MT), Mexico (507,700 MT), Colombia (306,300 MT), South Korea (143,300 MT), and Italy (115,600 MT).
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis decreased 10 cents compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 50 under to 32 cents under the November futures contract, with an average basis of 40 cents under at the end of the week. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $12.68 to $13.12. November 2026 soybean futures closed at $13.19, up 15 cents compared to last week. For the week, November 2026 soybean futures traded between $12.98 and $13.32.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 58% good-to-excellent (no change from last week) and 14% poor-to-very poor (up 1% from last week); soybean dropping leaves to be 62% compared to 44% last week, 58% last year, and a 5-year average of 58%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 74% good-to-excellent (down 1% from last week) compared to 7% poor-to-very poor (up 2% from last week); soybeans harvested to be 39% compared to 26% last week, 24% last year, and a 5-year average of 16%. For the week of September 11-September 17, 2026, net sales of 582,400 MT for 2026/2027 primarily for China (311,800 MT), Japan (66,000 MT), the Netherlands (59,700 MT), Turkey (52,000 MT), and Spain (45,500 MT), were offset by reductions for Egypt (52,000 MT) and Colombia (100 MT). Exports of 775,400 MT were primarily to China (446,800 MT), Mexico (77,800 MT), the Netherlands (59,700 MT), Japan (51,200 MT), and Spain (45,500 MT).
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for September 24th were up compared to last week. Prices were 80.81 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 85.56 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both up 1.14 cents compared to last week’s prices.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 34% good-to-excellent (down 2% from last week) and 35% poor-to-very poor (up 1% from last week); cotton bolls opening to be 65% compared to 57% last week, 59% last year, and a 5-year average of 58%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 58% good-to-excellent (down 1% from last week) and 18% poor-to-very poor (up 1% from last week); cotton bolls opening to be 81% compared to 64% last week, 75% last year, and a 5-year average of 55%. For the week September 11-September 17, 2026, net sales of Upland totaling 230,500 RB for 2026/2027 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (69,800 RB), Vietnam (51,200 RB), Pakistan (44,500 RB), India (33,300 RB), and Honduras (18,800 RB). Net sales of 123,000 RB for 2027/2028 were reported for Mexico (120,000 RB), Pakistan (2,500 RB), and Japan (500 RB). Exports of 164,700 RB were up 16 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (49,000 RB), India (32,100 RB), Pakistan (25,700 RB), Mexico (8,900 RB), and Turkey (8,800 RB). On Thursday, December 2026 cotton futures settled at 83.31 cents, up 1.14 cents compared to last week. December 2027 cotton futures settled at 79.31 cents, up 0.88 cents compared to last week.
Wheat
Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $6.20 to $6.39. July 2027 wheat futures closed at $7.26, down 12 cents compared to last week.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat planted to be 17% compared to 8% last week, 19% last year, and a 5-year average of 21%. For the week of September 11-September 17, net sales of 267,600 metric tons (MT) for 2026/2027 were down 18 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (113,400 MT), Japan (87,600 MT), Vietnam (60,000 MT), Canada (7,700 MT), and Thailand (6,100 MT). Exports of 385,100 MT were down 23 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (160,000 MT), Thailand (66,500 MT), the Philippines (65,100 MT), Indonesia (36,000 MT), and Haiti (27,400 MT).
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at agriff14@utk.edu.