by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
October 16, 2026
Overview
Corn, Soybean and Wheat down, Cotton up for the week.
Fuel
“Do you remember that time at band camp?” “When I was a kid, a Coke and a candy bar only cost a nickel!” These are the questions and statements being made by fuel buyers. The market is now in October 2026 where a person will pay $2 for a 16.9 fluid oz bottle of water at the convenience store, which equates to over $15 per gallon. A person buying a case of bottled water may get that price down to $1 per gallon, but our society gets in an uproar when fuel prices increase. There is no doubt fuel price is historically high and challenging, but it stills seems like a good deal compared to the water purchased at a sporting event. Fuel prices remain high this week with little sign of relief.
| Fuel | Regular | Mid-Grade | Premium | Diesel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Avg. | $3.87 | $4.33 | $4.74 | $6.00 |
| Yesterday Avg. | $3.89 | $4.35 | $4.76 | $6.00 |
| Week Ago Avg. | $3.96 | $4.44 | $4.84 | $5.99 |
| Month Ago Avg. | $4.00 | $4.49 | $4.90 | $6.01 |
| Year Ago Avg. | $2.73 | $3.20 | $3.59 | $3.36 |
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 102.25 | 101.84 | -0.41 |
| Crude Oil | 91.88 | 101.47 | 9.59 |
| DJIA | 51772 | 51888 | 116 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) increased 2 cents from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 43 cents under to 6 cents under, with an average of 27 cents under the December futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending October 9th was 1.065 million barrels per day, up 12,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 23.942 million barrels, up 199,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.37 to $4.77 at elevators and barge points.On Friday, December 2026 corn futures closed at $4.74, down 6 cents compared to last week. For the week, December 2026 corn futures traded between $4.73 and $4.88.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 56% good-to-excellent (up 2% from last week) and 17% poor-to-very poor (down 1% from last week); corn harvested to be 33% compared to 23% last week, NA last year, and a 5-year average of 39%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 81% good-to-excellent (no change from last week) and 4% poor-to-very poor (no change from last week); corn harvested to be 91% compared to 83% last week, NA last year, and a 5-year average of 78%. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.40 to $5.06 at elevators and barge points.For the week of October 2-October 8, 2026, net sales of 1,122,400 MT for 2026/2027 were up 46 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (544,500 MT), Japan (220,100 MT), South Korea (199,900 MT), Guatemala (85,600 MT), and Italy (51,000 MT). Exports of 1,362,600 were down 15 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis increased 3 cents compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 40 under to 7 over with the November futures contract, with an average basis of 21 cents under at the end of the week. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $12.23 to $13.04. November 2026 soybean futures closed at $12.61, down 31 cents compared to last week. For the week, November 2026 soybean futures traded between $12.53 and $12.98.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 57% good-to-excellent (no change from last week) and 14% poor-to-very poor (no change from last week); soybean harvested to be 46% compared to 25% last week, NA last year, and a 5-year average of 50%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 71% good-to-excellent (no change from last week) compared to 7% poor-to-very poor (no change from last week); soybeans harvested to be 67% compared to 59% last week, NA last year, and a 5-year average of 41%. For the week of October 2-October 8, 2026, net sales of 574,900 MT for 2026/2027 were up 5 percent from the previous week, but down 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (126,300 MT), Egypt (110,700 MT), Bangladesh (110,000 MT), Japan (109,600 MT), and Vietnam (71,600 MT). Exports of 1,154,000 MT were down 16 percent from the previous week, but up 23 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for October 15th were up compared to last week. Prices were 82.56 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 77.81 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both up 0.12 cents compared to last week’s prices.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 34% good-to-excellent (up 1% from last week) and 36% poor-to-very poor (down 1% from last week); cotton harvested to be 31% compared to 23% last week, NA% last year, and a 5-year average of 29%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 57% good-to-excellent (no change from last week) and 15% poor-to-very poor (down 1% from last week); cotton harvested to be 35% compared to 22% last week, NA% last year, and a 5-year average of 20%. For the week October 2-October 8, 2026, net sales of Upland totaling 146,900 RB for 2026/2027 were down 11 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Costa Rica (74,300 RB), India (21,300 RB), Pakistan (19,800 RB), China (8,900 RB), and Turkey (7,800 RB). Net sales of 7,200 RB for 2027/2028 were reported for Costa Rica (6,700 RB) and Pakistan (400 RB). Exports of 140,600 RB were down 13 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. On Thursday, December 2026 cotton futures settled at 80.06 cents, up 0.12 cents compared to last week. December 2027 cotton futures settled at 78.79 cents, up 0.65 cents compared to last week.
Wheat
Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.99 to $6.03. July 2027 wheat futures closed at $6.83, down 12 cents compared to last week.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat planted to be 51% compared to 36% last week, NA last year, and a 5-year average of 58%. For the week of October 2-October 8, net sales of 319,900 metric tons (MT) for 2026/2027 were down 29 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Taiwan (105,800 MT), Sri Lanka (68,100 MT), Mexico (52,300 MT), Japan (49,700 MT), and Venezuela (35,000 MT). Exports of 323,600 MT were up 48 percent from the previous week, but down 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (101,100 MT), Mexico (79,100 MT), Sri Lanka (67,600 MT), Japan (54,000 MT), and El Salvador (7,500 MT).
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at agriff14@utk.edu.