by Andrew Griffith, Livestock Marketing Specialist
October 2, 2026
Overview
Corn, Soybean, Wheat and Cotton down for the week.
Fuel
Fuel prices have stopped surging higher at this moment, which is welcome by the general public and farmers alike. However, the 10 cent per gallon decrease will do little to ease the strain on the pocketbook. One can only hope most farmers had bulk tanks full before prices began increasing. If that was not the case, the hope is they filled the bulk tank while prices were increasing and not at the top. The most likely scenario is there was fuel in the bulk tank and folks have had to refill during harvest. There are no indications fuel consumers are going to receive a reprieve anytime soon as it relates to price, but there is rest in hope and prayer.
| Fuel | Regular | Mid-Grade | Premium | Diesel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Avg. | $3.96 | $4.41 | $4.82 | $6.07 |
| Yesterday Avg. | $3.98 | $4.43 | $4.84 | $6.09 |
| Week Ago Avg. | $4.06 | $4.52 | $4.92 | $6.18 |
| Month Ago Avg. | $3.77 | $4.26 | $4.65 | $5.39 |
| Year Ago Avg. | $2.78 | $3.27 | $3.66 | $3.42 |
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 101.04 | 101.94 | 0.90 |
| Crude Oil | 92.29 | 91.26 | -1.03 |
| DJIA | 51762 | 51159 | -603 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) declined 4 cents from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 54 cents under to 6 cents under, with an average of 38 cents under the December futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending September 25th was 1.007 million barrels, down 21 million barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 23,865 million barrels, down 818,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.48 to $4.96 at elevators and barge points.On Friday, December 2026 corn futures closed at $4.98, which is down 30 cents compared to last week. For the week, December 2026 corn futures traded between $5.95 and $5.29.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 57% good-to-excellent (no change from last week) and 17% poor-to-very poor (no change from last week); corn harvested to be 18% compared to 13% last week, 17% last year, and a 5-year average of 18%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 81% good-to-excellent (no change from last week) and 4% poor-to-very poor (no change from last week); corn harvested to be 72% compared to 62% last week, 68% last year, and a 5-year average of 56%. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.48 to $4.96 at elevators and barge points.For the week of September 18-September 24, 2026, net sales of 536,000 MT for 2026/2027 primarily for Mexico (252,200 MT), Colombia (101,200 MT), South Korea (87,300 MT), Portugal (54,700 MT), and Ireland (22,700 MT). Exports of 1,445,100 were primarily to Mexico (431,600 MT), South Korea (401,700 MT), Japan (175,600 MT), Colombia (139,100 MT), and Portugal (87,700 MT).
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis decreased 9 cents compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 50 under to even with the November futures contract, with an average basis of 31 cents under at the end of the week. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $12.38 to $13.00. November 2026 soybean futures closed at $12.78, down 41 cents compared to last week. For the week, November 2026 soybean futures traded between $12.73 and $13.23.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 58% good-to-excellent (no change from last week) and 13% poor-to-very poor (down 1% from last week); soybean dropping leaves to be 75% compared to 62% last week, 76% last year, and a 5-year average of 75%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 71% good-to-excellent (down 3% from last week) compared to 7% poor-to-very poor (no change from last week); soybeans harvested to be 50% compared to 39% last week, 32% last year, and a 5-year average of 24%. For the week of September 18-September 24, 2026, net sales of 1,033,500 MT for 2026/2027 primarily for China (589,400 MT), Egypt (111,500 MT), Algeria (95,500 MT), the United Kingdom (60,000 MT), and unknown destinations (57,000 MT). Exports of 988,000 MT were primarily to China (735,400 MT), Egypt (56,500 MT), Japan (53,800 MT), Algeria (46,100 MT), and Mexico (23,100 MT).
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for October 1st were down compared to last week. Prices were 85.51 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 80.26 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both down 5.30 cents compared to last week’s prices.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 35% good-to-excellent (up 1% from last week) and 35% poor-to-very poor (no change from last week); cotton bolls opening to be 70% compared to 65% last week, 66% last year, and a 5-year average of 67%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 59% good-to-excellent (up 1% from last week) and 16% poor-to-very poor (down 2% from last week); cotton bolls opening to be 89% compared to 81% last week, 83% last year, and a 5-year average of 68%. For the week September 18-September 24, 2026, net sales of Upland totaling 202,600 RB for 2026/2027 were down 12 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (51,200 RB), Pakistan (40,600 RB), China (38,400 RB), Honduras (22,700 RB), and Malaysia (12,100 RB). Net sales of 39,200 RB for 2027/2028 were reported for Malaysia (30,800 RB), Honduras (7,700 RB), Guatemala (500 RB), and Japan (200 RB). Exports of 149,500 RB were down 9 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (49,800 RB), India (25,300 RB), Pakistan (15,800 RB), Mexico (15,200 RB), and Bangladesh (10,900 RB). On Thursday, December 2026 cotton futures settled at 77.76 cents, down 5.55 cents compared to last week. December 2027 cotton futures settled at 76.71 cents, down 2.60 cents compared to last week.
Wheat
Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.88 to $6.86. July 2027 wheat futures closed at $7.05, down 21 cents compared to last week.
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat planted to be 27% compared to 17% last week, 32% last year, and a 5-year average of 34%. For the week of September 18-September 24, net sales of 289,300 metric tons (MT) for 2026/2027 were up 8 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (94,400 MT), the Philippines (63,000 MT), Singapore (63,000 MT), Indonesia (55,000 MT), and Peru (26,000 MT. Exports of 315,400 MT were down 18 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (90,000 MT), the Philippines (72,000 MT), Nigeria (55,000 MT), Vietnam (49,700 MT), and Guatemala (23,000 MT).
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at agriff14@utk.edu.