Crop Comments

by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist

May 29, 2026

Overview

Soybeans and Cotton up for the week; Corn and Wheat down for the week

This week I provide comprehensive look at the forces shaping current agricultural markets, with a particular focus on how global currency dynamics, especially the strong U.S. dollar, continue to weigh on export competitiveness for major crops like corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat. The discussion connects these international pressures to on-the-ground impacts in Tennessee, where suppressed prices and tight margins are challenging farm profitability and emphasizing the need for careful cost management and marketing strategies. In addition, this week we get finally get positive fuel price news and their implications for operating expenses, along with detailed market summaries for each major commodity, including local basis trends, cash prices, futures movements, export activity, and crop progress data at both the national and state levels. Wishing everyone a great weekend!

USDA: Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade-May 2026

The USDA Economic Research Service’s Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set was released yesterday underscores how the relatively strong U.S. dollar has become a persistent headwind for American crop producers across all four major commodities, corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat, by making U.S. exports more expensive for foreign buyers relative to competitors whose currencies have weakened significantly against the dollar. For soybeans, the depreciation of the Brazilian real (down 40 to 50 percent against the dollar since 2020) has made Brazilian soybeans substantially cheaper on world markets, accelerating China’s shift away from U.S. purchases and contributing to the sharp decline in U.S. soybean prices received from $11.40 per bushel in March 2025 to $9.72 in March 2026. For corn, the strong dollar constrains export growth despite record U.S. shipments through December 2025, as Brazilian corn priced in the weak real increasingly captures price-sensitive markets in Southeast Asia and Africa. For wheat, Russia’s dominance of global trade, amplified by a dramatically weakened ruble that allows Russian wheat to undercut U.S. prices by $20 to $40 per metric ton, has kept U.S. ending stocks at a 6-year high of 938 million bushels and the season-average price at a 6-year low of $5.00 per bushel. For cotton, the dollar’s strength against the currencies of major textile-importing nations (Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, Turkey) has reduced demand for U.S. cotton and supported competing origins, keeping ICE futures in a narrow 64 to 72 cents per pound range.

For Tennessee producers specifically, the exchange rate dynamics documented in the report compounds an already challenging profitability environment by suppressing the export demand that would otherwise help absorb abundant domestic supplies and support higher prices. Tennessee cash prices all reflect, in part, the inability of U.S. crops to compete on price in global markets where Brazilian, Russian, and other competitors benefit from weaker currencies that effectively subsidize their exports. At these price levels, the University of Tennessee’s 2025 enterprise budgets show negative returns over total costs for non-irrigated corn and razor-thin or negative margins for soybeans and cotton, and wheat that pencils out only as a double-crop option rather than a standalone cash enterprise. While individual farmers cannot control exchange rates, understanding the currency dimension of global markets helps explain why prices have remained stubborn despite strong world demand for food and fiber, and reinforces the critical importance of aggressive cost management, maximum crop insurance utilization, strategic forward contracting on any price rallies, and honest evaluation of whether marginal acres should remain in row crop production or shift to alternative enterprises until the combination of commodity fundamentals and currency dynamics turns more favorable.

Fuel

The table below shows that current fuel prices vary significantly by grade, with Regular averaging $4.39, Mid-Grade $4.90, Premium $5.27, Diesel $5.52, and E85 at $3.49. Compared to yesterday, all fuel types have decreased slightly, continuing a downward trend from a week ago when prices were higher across the board. However, current prices remain above month-ago levels for most fuels, indicating a recent increase before the short-term decline. Year-over-year, prices have risen sharply, with Regular increasing from $3.17 and Diesel jumping from $3.54 to $5.52. Higher fuel prices have no doubt increased operating expenses, reduce profit margins, and can influence decisions on acreage, crop choice, and timing of field operations. Even small fluctuations in fuel costs can have significant financial impacts for farms operating on tight margins, making these pricing trends critical for planning and risk management.

Fuel	Regular	Mid-Grade	Premium	Diesel	E85
Current Avg.	$4.39	$4.90	$5.27	$5.52	$3.49
Yesterday Avg.	$4.43	$4.93	$5.30	$5.55	$3.52
Week Ago Avg.	$4.55	$5.05	$5.42	$5.65	$3.67
Month Ago Avg.	$4.23	$4.72	$5.09	$5.46	$3.36
Year Ago Avg.	$3.17	$3.66	$4.01	$3.54	$2.58

Indicator	Previous	Current	Change
USD Index	99.25	98.88	-0.37
Crude Oil	96.46	87.71	-8.75
DJIA	50716	51037	321

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) weakened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 31 cents under to 16 cents over, with an average of 1 cent under with the July futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending May 22nd was 1.089 million barrels, down 22,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 24.968 million barrels, up 93,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.23 to $4.84 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.56, which is down 14 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 corn futures traded between $4.54 and $4.70.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn emerged to be 60% compared to 39% last week, 65% year, and a 5-year average of 58%; corn planted to be 86% compared to 76% last week, 86% last year, and a 5-year average of 83%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated corn emerged to be 92% compared to 84% last week, 74% last year, and a 5-year average of 75%; corn planted to be 97% compared to 96% last week, 86% last year, and a 5-year average of 91%. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.37 to $5 at elevators and barge points. For the week of May 15-21, 2026, there were net sales 1,015,300 MT for 2025/2026 were down 52% from the previous week and 30% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 618,600 MT for 2026/2027 were primarily for Mexico (249,900 MT), unknown destinations (197,500 MT), Japan (60,000 MT), Colombia (43,000 MT), and Panama (39,800 MT). Exports of 1,613,900 MT were up 12% from the previous week, but down 5% from the prior 4-week average. December corn futures closed at $4.75, down 11 cents from last week.

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis weakened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 31 under to 16 over the July futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 1/2 cent over. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $11.45 to $12.22. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.81, up 1 cent compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $11.66 and $11.91.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean emerged to be 49% compared to 32% last week, 48% last year, and a 5-year average of 40%; soybean planted to be 79% compared to 67% last week, 75% last year, and a 5-year average of 68%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated soybeans emerged to be 71% compared to 60% last week, 43% last year, and a 5-year average of 39%; soybean planted to be 84% compared to 80% last week, 58% last year, and a 5-year average of 58%. For the week of May 15-22, 2026, there were net sales of 299,900 MT for 2025/2026 were down 15% from the previous week, but up 41% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 137,700 MT for 2026/2027 were primarily for Mexico (60,400 MT), Taiwan (27,000 MT), Japan (20,000 MT), Thailand (17,300 MT), and Indonesia (7,600 MT). Exports of 571,200 MT were up 8% from the previous week, but down 2% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (137,300 MT), Egypt (110,100 MT), Mexico (85,700 MT), Colombia (51,300 MT), and Bangladesh (48,400 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.90, up 2 cents compared to last week.

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for May 28th were noticeably down compared to last week. Prices were 73.77 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 78.52cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both down 1.21 cents compared to last week’s prices.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton planted to be 53% compared to 41% last week, 50% last year, and a 5-year average of 53%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton planted to be 87% compared to 73% last week, 64% last year, and a 5-year average of 71%. For the week May 15-22, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland totaling 153,600 RB for 2025/2026 were up 17% from the previous week and 32% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 112,000 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for Pakistan (68,300 RB), Mexico (26,100 RB), South Korea (8,800 RB), Turkey (7,000 RB), and Guatemala (1,400 RB). Exports of 317,700 RB were up 10% from the previous week, but down 2% from the prior 4-week average. For the week, December 2026 cotton futures closed at 79.59 cents, up 0.26 cents compared to last week. March 2027 cotton futures closed at 80.72 cents, up 0.53 cents compared to last week.

Wheat

Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $6.03 to $6.21.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated spring wheat emerged to be 56% compared to 39% last week, 58% last year, and a 5-year average of 51%; spring wheat planted to be 86% compared to 73% last week, 86% last year, and a 5-year average of 79%. The report estimated winter wheat headed to be 78% compared to 71% last week, 73% last year, and a 5-year average of 70%. For the week of May 15-22, 2026, net sales of 807,300 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 (a marketing-year low) were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 1,057,500 MT for 2026/2027 were primarily for Japan (252,100 MT), the Philippines (166,900 MT), Mexico (125,600 MT), Panama (105,500 MT), and unknown destinations (68,600 MT). Exports of 299,700 MT were up 30% from the previous week, but down 23% from the prior 4-week average. 

Additional Information

Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news

If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at cmart113@utk.edu.