by Aaron Smith, Crops Marketing Specialist
February 28, 2025
Overview
Corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat were down for the week.
It was a terrible week for futures prices. The May corn contract had daily declines of 8, 2 ¾ , ¾, 12 ½, and 11 ½ cents; May soybeans had daily price changes of -9 ¾, +1 ¼, -7 ½, -4, and -11 ½ cents; May cotton had daily price changes of +0.54, -0.51, -0.50, -0.27, and -1.35 cents; and May wheat had declines of 10 ½, 5 ¾, 8, 17 ¼, and 6 ¾ cents. Improved weather forecasts in South America, concerns over escalating trade tensions and the potential for retaliatory tariffs, and U.S. planted acre estimates all played a role in price declines this week.
USDA held its annual outlook conference in Arlington Virginia on February 27 and 28. Planted acre estimates were for 94 million acres of corn, 84 million acres of soybeans, 47 million acres of wheat, and 10 million acres of cotton to be planted in the U.S. Average national yields were projected to be 181 bu/acre, 52.5 bu/acre, 50.1 bu/acre, and 833 lbs/acre for corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton. These initial estimates will continue to be refined as the year progresses. The next major USDA report will be the Prospective Planting report that will be released March 31. The report will provide updated projections of U.S. planted acre estimates.
The crop insurance price discovery period concluded Friday with corn, cotton, and soybean projected prices set at $4.71, $0.69, and $10.55. Cotton and soybean crop insurance prices are down substantially compared to last year and corn is up marginally. Producers should work with their crop insurance agent to make decisions on revenue protection or yield protection policies and investigate if products like supplemental coverage option (SCO) and enhanced coverage option (ECO) can provide additional coverage for the premium incurred. The sales closing date for crop insurance for corn, soybeans, and cotton in Tennessee is March 15.
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 106.49 | 107.53 | 1.04 |
| Crude Oil | 70.34 | 70.04 | -0.3 |
| DJIA | 43,403 | 43,841 | 438 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 15 under to 32 over, with an average of 14 over the March futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending February 21 was 1.081 million barrels per day, down 3,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 27.571 million barrels, up 1.353 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for February 14-20 were net sales of 31.3 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 5.0 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 18% compared to last week at 52.0 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 78% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 76%. Cash prices ranged from $4.44 to $5.11 at elevators and barge points. March 2025 corn futures closed at $4.53, down 38 cents since last Friday. For the week, March 2025 corn futures traded between $4.53 and $4.91. May 2025 corn futures closed at $4.69, down 36 cents since last Friday.
| Corn | Mar 25 | Change | Dec 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.53 | -$0.38 | $4.55 | -$0.20 |
| Support | $4.43 | -$0.44 | $4.48 | -$0.23 |
| Resistance | $4.73 | -$0.32 | $4.66 | -$0.16 |
| 20 Day MA | $4.87 | -$0.04 | $4.69 | $0.01 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.74 | $0.03 | $4.57 | $0.02 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.54 | $0.02 | $4.48 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week High | $5.04 | $0.00 | $4.79 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.53 | -$0.19 | $4.54 | $0.01 |
| Technical Trend | Down | – | Down | – |
Mar/May and Mar/Dec future spreads were 16 and 2 cents. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.55, down 20 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.60 December 2025 Put Option costing 38 cents establishing a $4.22 futures floor.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee the average soybean basis strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 33 under to 30 over the March futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 7 over. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 15.1 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 0.1 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 31% compared to last week at 35.7 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 89% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 89%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.89 to $10.58. March 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.11, down 28 cents since last Friday. For the week, March 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.11 and $10.43. The March soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.26 at the end of the week. May 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.25, down 32 cents since last Friday.
| Soybeans | Mar 25 | Change | Nov 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $10.11 | -$0.28 | $10.29 | -$0.30 |
| Support | $9.97 | -$0.29 | $10.15 | -$0.31 |
| Resistance | $10.38 | -$0.17 | $10.55 | -$0.14 |
| 20 Day MA | $10.40 | -$0.06 | $10.53 | -$0.02 |
| 50 Day MA | $10.25 | $0.02 | $10.34 | $0.03 |
| 100 Day MA | $10.18 | -$0.03 | $10.30 | -$0.03 |
| 4-Week High | $10.79 | $0.00 | $10.75 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $10.11 | -$0.13 | $10.28 | -$0.09 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
Mar/May and Mar/Nov future spreads were 14 and 18 cents. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.29, down 30 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.40 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 62 cents and set a $9.78 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.26 at the end of the week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for February 27 were 64.6 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 66.6 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) decreased 0.78 cents to 53.89 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 166,900 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 32,600 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 10% compared to last week at 267,500 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 93% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 93%. March 2025 cotton futures closed at 63.88 cents, down 2.2 cents since last Friday. For the week, March 2025 cotton futures traded between 63.88 and 66.81 cents. May 2025 cotton futures closed at 65.25 cents, down 2.09 cents since last Friday.
| Cotton | Mar 25 | Change | Dec 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 63.88 | -2.20 | 67.88 | -1.27 |
| Support | 62.95 | -2.50 | 67.20 | -1.61 |
| Resistance | 64.81 | -2.12 | 69.08 | -0.47 |
| 20 Day MA | 66.23 | -0.38 | 69.08 | -0.10 |
| 50 Day MA | 67.23 | -0.42 | 69.31 | -0.20 |
| 100 Day MA | 69.58 | -0.49 | 70.80 | -0.23 |
| 4-Week High | 67.97 | -0.47 | 70.19 | 0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | 63.88 | -1.13 | 67.80 | -0.03 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
Mar/May and Mar/Dec cotton futures spreads were 1.37 cents and 4 cents. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 67.88 cents, down 1.27 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 68 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 3.3 cents establishing a 64.7 cent futures floor.
Wheat
Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 9.9 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 0.2 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 63% compared to last week at 13.9 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 87% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 95%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.05 to $5.38. March 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.37, down 53 cents since last Friday. The March wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.19. March 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.37 and $5.89 this week. May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.55, down 49 cents since last Friday.
| Wheat | Mar 25 | Change | Jul 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $5.37 | -$0.53 | $5.69 | -$0.48 |
| Support | $5.25 | -$0.51 | $5.58 | -$0.47 |
| Resistance | $5.60 | -$0.40 | $5.90 | -$0.37 |
| 20 Day MA | $5.76 | $0.02 | $6.02 | $0.03 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.56 | $0.00 | $5.79 | $0.01 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.67 | -$0.03 | $5.87 | -$0.03 |
| 4-Week High | $6.09 | $0.00 | $6.33 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $5.37 | $0.05 | $5.68 | $0.10 |
| Technical Trend | Down | – | Down | – |
Mar/May and Mar/Jul future spreads were 18 and 32 cents. July cash contracts at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.00 to $5.94. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.69, down 48 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.70 July 2025 Put Option costing 37 cents establishing a $5.33 futures floor.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu.