by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist
November 14, 2025
Overview
Corn and Soybeans up for the week; Cotton and wheat down for the week
The government shutdown finally came to an end this week. Two reports came out today: crop production and WASDE. Below are the highlights from those two reports. Following the report, many futures contracts dipped. I think it is important to keep in mind that often there is a market over reaction following big reports. Give the duration since the last WASDE report, volatility should be expected, I also expect the market to correct some next week following the initial reaction.
Crop Production
Corn production for grain is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, down less than 1% from the previous forecast but up 12% from 2024. If realized, this would be the highest grain production on record for the United States. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average a record high 186 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushel from the previous forecast but up 6.7 bushels from last year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 90.0 million acres, up 8% from the 2024.
Tennessee- 870,000 acres harvested (up from 660,000 acres in 2024), average yield of 160 bushels/acres. Total production of 139,200,000 bushels.
Soybean production for beans is forecast at 4.25 billion bushels, down 3% from 2024. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average a record high 53 bushels per acre, up 2.3 bushels from 2024. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 80.3 million acres, but down 7% from 2024..
Tennessee-1,520,000 acres harvested (down from 1,800,000 acres in 2024), average yield of 41 bushels/acres. Total production of 62,320,000 bushels.
All cotton production is forecast at 14.1 million 480-pound bales, down 2% from 2024. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 919 pounds per harvested acre, up 33 pounds from 2024. Upland cotton production is forecast at 13.7 million 480-pound bales, down 1% from 2024.
Tennessee-190,000 acres harvested (down from 250,000 acres in 2024), average yield of 1,213 ponds/acres. Total production of 480,000 bales.
WASDE
WHEAT: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies and higher ending stocks, with no change to use. Supplies are raised on greater production, up 58 million bushels to 1,985 million, on a record all wheat yield based on the September 30 Small Grains Summary. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.00 as larger global supplies reduce price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.
CORN: U.S. corn outlook is for increases in supply, exports, and ending stocks. Total supply is 144 million bushels higher as larger beginning stocks are partially offset by lower production. Beginning stocks are 207 million bushels higher based on the September 30 Grain Stocks report. Corn production is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, down 62 million from September on a 0.7-bushel reduction in yield to 186.0 bushels per acre. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents to $4.00 per bushel.
SOYBEANS: Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 48 million, on lower yields. The soybean yield is projected down 0.5 bushels to 53.0 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies are projected to be 61 million bushels lower than the September forecast, due to lower beginning stocks from the September 30 Grain Stocks report and reduced production. U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.64 billion bushels, down 50 million from the previous forecast due to lower supplies and higher exports by Brazil and Argentina. The U.S. season average soybean price for 2025/26 is raised $0.50 to $10.50 per bushel.
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 99.51 | 99.27 | -0.24 |
| Crude Oil | 59.78 | 59.83 | 0.05 |
| DJIA | 46833 | 47174 | 341 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened from last week (second week in a row) at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 18 cents under to 28 cents over, with an average of 5 cents over with the December futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending November 7 was 1.075 million barrels, down 48,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 22.219 million barrels, down 436,000 barrels compared to last week. Cash prices ranged from $4.09 to $4.67 at elevators and barge points. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.30, which is up 3 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 corn futures traded between $4.26 and $4.42.
| Corn | Dec 25 | Change | Mar 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.30 | $0.03 | $4.44 | $0.02 |
| Support | $4.25 | -$0.01 | $4.39 | -$0.01 |
| Resistance | $4.38 | $0.06 | $4.52 | $0.05 |
| 20 Day MA | $4.30 | $0.05 | $4.43 | $0.04 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.24 | $0.01 | $4.40 | $0.01 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.19 | $0.00 | $4.35 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week High | $4.42 | $0.05 | $4.27 | $0.07 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.11 | $0.02 | $4.57 | $0.02 |
| Technical Trend | UP | = | UP | = |
This week, new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.25 to $4.72 at elevators and barge points. March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.44, up 2 cents since last Friday.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis slightly weakened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 22 under to 25 over the November futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 7 cents over. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $10.95 to $11.57. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $11.12, up 11 cents since last Friday. For the week, November 2025 soybean futures traded between $11.06 and $11.38.
| Soybeans | Nov 25 | Change | Jan 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $11.12 | $0.11 | $11.24 | $0.07 |
| Support | $11.04 | $0.22 | $11.13 | $0.17 |
| Resistance | $11.30 | $0.23 | $11.43 | $0.17 |
| 20 Day MA | $10.86 | $0.27 | $11.02 | $0.26 |
| 50 Day MA | $10.47 | $0.08 | $10.64 | $0.07 |
| 100 Day MA | $10.35 | $0.03 | $10.53 | $0.04 |
| 4-Week High | $10.38 | -$0.82 | $11.52 | $0.15 |
| 4-Week Low | $10.02 | $0.01 | $11.20 | $1.02 |
| Technical Trend | UP | = | UP | = |
January 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.24, up 7 cents since last Friday. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.59 at the end of the week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for November 13th were down to 60.4 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 65.15 cents/lb (31-3-35).
| Cotton | Dec 25 | Change | Mar 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 62.49 | -1.13 | 64.13 | -1.01 |
| Support | 61.91 | -2.32 | 63.69 | -1.09 |
| Resistance | 63.28 | -1.79 | 64.83 | -0.91 |
| 20 Day MA | 64.40 | -0.10 | 65.87 | -0.11 |
| 50 Day MA | 65.13 | -0.28 | 66.83 | -0.32 |
| 100 Day MA | 66.37 | -0.20 | 67.90 | -0.24 |
| 4-Week High | 66.10 | 0.00 | 67.57 | 0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | 62.13 | -0.58 | 63.96 | -0.49 |
| Technical Trend | DOWN | = | DOWN | = |
December 2025 cotton futures closed at 62.49 cents, down 1.13 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 cotton futures traded between 63.96 to 65.95 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.64 cents and 2.86 cents. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 64.13 cents, down 1.01 cents since last Friday. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 65.35 cents, down 1 cent since last Friday.
Wheat
Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.90 to $4.91.
| Wheat | Dec 25 | Change | Jul 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $5.24 | -$0.03 | $5.62 | $0.01 |
| Support | $5.19 | -$0.04 | $5.56 | -$0.02 |
| Resistance | $5.39 | $0.05 | $5.74 | $0.07 |
| 20 Day MA | $5.28 | $0.09 | $5.64 | $0.08 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.20 | $0.01 | $5.58 | $0.01 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.32 | -$0.03 | $5.71 | -$0.02 |
| 4-Week High | $5.55 | $0.00 | $5.85 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.94 | $0.02 | $5.35 | $0.02 |
| Technical Trend | DOWN | = | UP | = |
December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.24, down 3 cents since last Friday. December 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.24 and $5.44 this week. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.62, up 1 cent since than last Friday.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at cmart113@utk.edu.