by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist
October 10, 2025
Overview
Corn, wheat, cotton, and soybeans down for the week
The government shut down has continued and due to the shutdown there are many weekly reports that are produced again this week. But additionally, the shutdown has halted the WASDE reports for this month. Thus, the comments this week are void of crop progress, trade data, and the WASDE updates. Thus, movement is prices is based on local and futures markets. On Friday, prices took a tailspin down following reports of trade tensions between the US and China.
I looked back at recent government shutdowns to see if data is curated for the duration of the shutdowns. The recent ones that I looked at were January 2018 (3 days), December 2018- January 2019 (35 days) and data was updated for those shutdowns. The current shutdown is on day 11 at the time of this writing, so I would expect for data from the current shutdown to be released once the shutdown ends.
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 97.76 | 98.96 | 1.20 |
| Crude Oil | 60.53 | 58.80 | -1.73 |
| DJIA | 46841 | 45561 | -1280 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 35 cents under to 15 cents over, with an average of 12 cents under with the December futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending October 3 was 1.07 million barrels, up 76,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 22.72 million barrels, down 44,000 barrels compared to last week. Cash prices ranged from $3.83 to $4.34 at elevators and barge points. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.13, which is down 6 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 corn futures traded between $4.12 and $4.24.
| Corn | Dec 25 | Change | Mar 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.13 | -$0.06 | $4.29 | -$0.06 |
| Support | $4.16 | $0.00 | $4.32 | -$0.01 |
| Resistance | $4.21 | -$0.03 | $4.37 | -$0.03 |
| 20 Day MA | $4.21 | -$0.01 | $4.38 | -$0.01 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.15 | $0.01 | $4.32 | $0.00 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.23 | -$0.01 | $4.39 | -$0.01 |
| 4-Week High | $4.31 | $0.00 | $4.27 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.10 | $0.00 | $4.49 | $0.00 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $3.84 to $4.52 at elevators and barge points. March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.29, down 6 cents since last Friday.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 62 under to 40 over the November futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 22 under. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.63 to $10.62. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.06, down 12 cents since last Friday. For the week, November 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.02 and $10.30.
| Soybeans | Nov 25 | Change | Jan 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $10.06 | -$0.12 | $10.23 | -$0.14 |
| Support | $10.18 | $0.05 | $10.14 | -$0.18 |
| Resistance | $10.27 | $0.02 | $10.36 | -$0.07 |
| 20 Day MA | $10.21 | -$0.03 | $10.39 | -$0.04 |
| 50 Day MA | $10.25 | $0.01 | $10.44 | $0.01 |
| 100 Day MA | $10.27 | -$0.02 | $10.44 | -$0.01 |
| 4-Week High | $10.52 | $0.00 | $10.72 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $9.93 | $0.00 | $10.12 | $0.00 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $9.63 to $10.53 for the week. January 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.23, down 14 cents since last Friday. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.44 at the end of the week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for October 2nd were up to 61.97 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 66.72 cents/lb (31-3-35).
| Cotton | Dec 25 | Change | Mar 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 63.84 | -1.46 | 65.60 | -1.59 |
| Support | 63.14 | -1.63 | 64.97 | -1.81 |
| Resistance | 64.67 | -0.98 | 66.38 | -1.20 |
| 20 Day MA | 65.84 | -0.50 | 67.74 | -0.52 |
| 50 Day MA | 66.50 | -0.33 | 68.27 | -0.27 |
| 100 Day MA | 67.29 | -0.18 | 68.84 | -0.16 |
| 4-Week High | 67.84 | 0.00 | 65.73 | -4.00 |
| 4-Week Low | 63.26 | -1.44 | 65.13 | -1.53 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
December 2025 cotton futures closed at 63.84 cents, down 1.46 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 cotton futures traded between 63.26 to 65.56 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.76 cents and 3.05 cents. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 65.6 cents, down 1.59 cents since last Friday. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 66.89 cents, down 1.61 cents since last Friday.
Wheat
Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.51 to $4.58.
| Wheat | Dec 25 | Change | Jul 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.98 | -$0.17 | $5.39 | -$0.18 |
| Support | $0.93 | -$4.17 | $5.30 | -$0.23 |
| Resistance | $5.06 | -$0.11 | $5.47 | -$0.13 |
| 20 Day MA | $5.16 | -$0.04 | $5.57 | -$0.03 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.23 | -$0.04 | $5.62 | -$0.04 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.47 | -$0.02 | $5.85 | -$0.02 |
| 4-Week High | $5.35 | $0.00 | $5.74 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.96 | -$0.06 | $5.38 | -$0.07 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
December 2025 wheat futures closed at $4.98, down 17 cents since last Friday. December 2025 wheat futures traded between $4.96 and $5.18 this week. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.39, down 18 cents since than last Friday.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at cmart113@utk.edu.