Crop Comments

by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist

July 17, 2026

Overview

Corn, Soybeans, Cotton, and Wheat up for the week

This week marks the end of me writing these comments for yall. I will be leaving the University of Tennessee to be the new director of the King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management. Its been awesome writing these for everyone every week. Thank you to the readers for all the comments, suggestions, and compliments. Thank Yall!!

This week’s crop comments examine several key developments affecting row crop producers, including USDA’s latest Feed and Wheat Outlook reports, fuel costs, crop progress, and grain market trends. Feed grain supplies remain abundant, with U.S. feed grain production projected at 420.1 million metric tons, the second-largest crop on record, supporting expectations for adequate feed availability and relatively stable feed costs. In contrast, the wheat outlook has tightened considerably, with U.S. wheat production forecast at just 1.536 billion bushels, the smallest crop since 1970/71, and ending stocks projected to decline 21% from last year. Market updates show corn and soybean futures posting modest gains, with December corn futures closing at $4.67 per bushel and November soybeans at $12.03. Tennessee crop conditions continue to exceed national averages, with 77% of corn and 75% of soybeans rated good-to-excellent. Readers will also find updates on cotton and wheat markets, export demand, ethanol production, basis trends, and the impact of fuel prices, as diesel remains elevated at $4.77 per gallon—nearly 39% above year-ago levels—continuing to influence production costs and profitability across row crop operations. I hope everyone has a great weekend!

Feed Outlook

USDA’s July 2026 Feed Outlook points to a generally well-supplied feed grain market, with U.S. feed grain production forecast at 420.1 million metric tons, the second-largest crop on record despite being slightly below last year’s level. Corn supplies remain ample, supported by large acreage and strong yields, while domestic feed use for the 2025/26 marketing year was increased due to higher-than-expected livestock feeding demand. Sorghum production was raised slightly, while barley production was trimmed. Overall, large domestic and global grain supplies are expected to keep feed availability strong and help moderate feed costs, although demand from livestock, poultry, and export markets will continue to influence price movements. For producers, the outlook suggests adequate feed supplies and relatively stable feed-grain markets heading into the 2026/27 marketing year.

Wheat Outlook

USDA’s July 2026 Wheat Outlook highlights a much tighter U.S. wheat supply situation for the 2026/27 marketing year. Total U.S. wheat production is now forecast at 1.536 billion bushels, the smallest crop since 1970/71, driven largely by drought-reduced yields and lower harvested acreage, especially for Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat, which is projected to be the smallest HRW crop since 1957/58. As a result, ending stocks are expected to fall 21% from last year to 722 million bushels, a three-year low. Reduced supplies are expected across all wheat classes, with HRW stocks down about 30%. U.S. exports are projected lower because of limited supplies and competition from global exporters, while millers may substitute more Hard Red Spring wheat for scarce HRW supplies. Overall, the report points to a significantly tighter domestic wheat balance sheet and continued support for wheat prices as the market adjusts to one of the smallest U.S. crops in decades.

Fuel

This week, Tennessee fuel have remained relatively stable over the past month but have increased in recent days and are substantially higher than a year ago. Current average prices stand at $3.61 per gallon for regular gasoline, $4.09 for mid-grade, $4.50 for premium, and $4.77 for diesel. Compared with one week ago, prices have risen by approximately $0.10 per gallon for gasoline products and $0.20 per gallon for diesel, while current prices are nearly identical to those recorded one month ago. The most significant changes are evident in the year-over-year comparison, with regular gasoline increasing from $2.78 to $3.61 per gallon, premium gasoline rising from $3.64 to $4.50, and diesel climbing from $3.44 to $4.77 per gallon.

Indicator	Regular	Mid-Grade	Premium	Diesel
Current Avg.	$3.61	$4.09	$4.50	$4.77
Yesterday Avg.	$3.56	$4.06	$4.46	$4.72
Week Ago Avg.	$3.51	$3.99	$4.40	$4.57
Month Ago Avg.	$3.60	$4.09	$4.49	$4.78
Year Ago Avg.	$2.78	$3.24	$3.64	$3.44

Fuel	Previous	Current	Change
USD Index	100.96	100.77	-0.19
Crude Oil	71.46	82.15	10.69
DJIA	52693	5224	-451

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) remained unchanged from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 2 cents under to 16 cents over, with an average of 7 cents over the July futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending July 10th was 1.04 million barrels, down 53,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 24.391 million barrels, up 463,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.31 to $4.81 at elevators and barge points.On Friday, September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.45, which is up 6 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 corn futures traded between $4.35 and $4.52.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 68% good-to-excellent (up 1% from last week) and 8% poor-to-very poor (same as last week); corn silking to be 34% compared to 16% last week, 32% last year, and a 5-year average of 30%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 77% good-to-excellent (up 1% from last week) and 6% poor-to-very poor (same as last week). This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.28 to $4.67 at elevators and barge points.For the week of July 3-9, 2026, net sales of 315,000 MT for 2025/2026 (marketing-year low) were down 44% from the previous week and 61% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 311,200 MT for 2026/2027 were primarily for Colombia (132,600 MT), Mexico (87,100 MT), Japan (50,000 MT), unknown destinations (17,000 MT), and Nicaragua (11,600 MT). Exports of 1,588,300 MT were down 14% from the previous week and 9% from the prior 4-week average. December corn futures closed at $4.67, up 6 cents from last week.

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 40 under to 5 cents over the August futures contract, with an average basis of 21 under at the end of the week. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $11.53 to $12.29. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.93, up 12 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $11.74 and $11.97.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 65% good-to-excellent (up 1% from last week) and 8% poor-to-very poor (same as last week); soybean blooming to be 50% compared to 34% last week, 45% last year, and a 5-year average of 44%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 75% good-to-excellent (same as last week) compared to 7% poor-to-very poor (same as last week); blooming to be 73% compared to 56% last week, 50% last year, and a 5-year average of 48%. For the week of July 3-9, 2026, there were net sales of 188,300 MT for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 23% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 182,500 MT for 2026/2027 were reported for Mexico (182,100 MT) and Vietnam (400 MT). Net sales of 1,769,600 MT for 2026/2027 primarily for China (1,056,000 MT), unknown destinations (624,600 MT), Mexico (60,100 MT), Japan (52,700 MT), and Hong Kong (5,000 MT), were offset by reductions for Colombia (40,000 MT). Exports of 453,900 MT were down 21% from the previous week, but up 5% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Egypt (108,600 MT), Mexico (79,300 MT), China (65,900 MT), Japan (52,200 MT), and Indonesia (46,100 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $12.03, up 12 cents compared to last week.

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for July 14th were up compared to last week. Prices were 75.6 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 80.35 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both up .67 cents compared to last week’s prices.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 44% good-to-excellent (down 6% from last week) and 16% poor-to-very poor (down 1% from last week); cotton squaring to be 60% compared to 49% last week, 59% last year, and a 5-year average of 59%. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 59% good-to-excellent (same as last week) and 16% poor-to-very poor (same as last week); cotton squaring to be 80% compared to 65% last week, 61% last year, and a 5-year average of 70%. For the week July 3-9, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland 34,400 RB for 2025/2026 (a marketing-year low) were down 48% from the previous week and 64% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 4,100 RB for 2026/2027 reported for Pakistan (4,200 RB), Peru (3,800 RB), Vietnam (1,700 RB), and Indonesia (1,200 RB), were offset by reductions for Mexico (4,700 RB), Nicaragua (1,200 RB), Guatemala (500 RB), Honduras (400 RB), and Japan (100 RB). Exports of 214,900 RB were down 7% from the previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (77,100 RB), Turkey (36,100 RB), Pakistan (21,500 RB), India (17,000 RB), and Mexico (14,000 RB). For the week, December 2026 cotton futures closed at 78.63 cents, down 2.91 cents compared to last week. March 2027 cotton futures closed at 80.01 cents, down 2.9 cents compared to last week.

Wheat

Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.89 to $6.34.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated spring wheat headed to be 72% compared to 54% last week, 76% last year, and a 5-year average of 72%. The report estimated winter wheat harvested to be 67% compared to 59% last week, 62% last year, and a 5-year average of 61%. For the week of July 3-9, 2026, net sales of 235,100 metric tons (MT) for 2026/2027 were down 25% from the previous week and 38% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 422,100 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 25% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (152,700 MT), the Philippines (79,100 MT), Japan (62,200 MT), Taiwan (54,300 MT), and Honduras (39,900 MT).

Additional Information

Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news

If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at cmart113@utk.edu.