Crop Comments

by Aaron Smith, Crops Marketing Specialist

June 27, 2025

Overview

Cotton was up; corn, soybeans, and wheat were down for the week.

This week December corn futures prices broke through a key level of support at $4.30. On Thursday June 26, the December contract established a new contract low at $4.19 ¼. Next week the USDA will release the Acreage report which will provide survey based planted acre estimates. Currently, USDA estimates 95.326 million acres (900,000 in Tennessee) of corn, 83.495 million acres (1.75 million in Tennessee) of soybeans, and 9.71 million acres (235,000 in Tennessee) of upland cotton. If the June 30 Acreage report estimates corn acres planted higher than the current estimates, it is likely that further price weakness will occur. The nearby corn futures contract low over the past 3 years was $3.85 (August 26, 2024).

Last week’s rally in November soybean futures prices was wiped out with five consecutive daily declines (-7 ½, -14, -9 ¾, -18 ½, and -2 cents). The November soybean contract is now trading near a key level of support at $10.20. If prices fail to hold, a decline to $10.00 is likely. Projected global ending stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year (4.604 billion bushels) and production in South America (8.616 billion bushels) continue to be the primary driver of low soybean prices.

Cotton prices have finally shown signs of improvement. The December contract closed up +0.71, +0.38. +0.53, +0.48, and +0.52 cents this week. Prices remain below 70 cents, but this past week’s rally may be an important step for futures prices to improve through the end of this year and into early 2026. This week’s Crop Progress report indicates cotton in good-to-excellent condition is 10% below last year at this time.

This week wheat prices fell as quickly as they rose the previous week. On June 12th, July wheat futures prices were $5.26 ½, on June 20th $5.94, and on June 27th $5.40. Rallies in wheat prices have been very short lived this year with a similar price spike in mid-February followed by a rapid price decline. Price rallies should be viewed as an opportunity to incrementally price a portion of production.

Indicator	Previous	Current	Change
USD Index	98.27	97.05	-1.22
Crude Oil	74.93	65.35	-9.58
DJIA	42,182	43,598	1,417

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 10 under to 38 over, with an average of 12 over the July futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending June 20 was 1.081 million barrels per day, down 28,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 24.404 million barrels, up 0.284 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for June 13-19 were net sales of 29.2 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 12.0 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 16% compared to last week at 57.9 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 99% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 100%. Cash prices ranged from $4.00 to $4.58 at elevators and barge points. July 2025 corn futures closed at $4.17, down 11 cents since last Friday. For the week, July 2025 corn futures traded between $4.08 and $4.30. September 2025 corn futures closed at $4.11, down 14 cents since last Friday. Jul/Sep and Jul/Dec future spreads were -6 and 10 cents.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 70% good-to-excellent and 6% poor-to-very poor; corn emerged at 97% compared to 94% last week, 96% last year, and a 5-year average of 98%; and corn silking at 4% compared to 4% last year and a 5-year average of 3%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 67% good-to-excellent and 11% poor-to-very poor; corn emerged at 96% compared to 92% last week, 97% last year, and a 5-year average of 99%; and corn silking at 29% compared to 9% last week, 31% last year, and a 5-year average of 16%. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.27, down 14 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.30 December 2025 Put Option costing 24 cents establishing a $4.06 futures floor. This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $3.93 to $4.19 at elevators and barge points.

Soybeans

Across Tennessee the average soybean basis weakened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 40 under to 2 over the July futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 13 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 14.8 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 5.7 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 35% compared to last week at 9.8 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 98% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 102%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.85 to $10.61. July 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.27, down 41 cents since last Friday. For the week, July 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.17 and $10.73. The July soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.46 at the end of the week. August 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.33, down 38 cents since last Friday. Jul/Aug and Jul/Nov future spreads were 6 and -3 cents.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 66% good-to-excellent and 7% poor-to-very poor; soybeans planted at 96% compared to 93% last week, 96% last year, and a 5-year average of 97%; soybeans emerged at 90% compared to 94% last week, 89% last year, and a 5-year average of 90%; and soybeans blooming at 8% compared to 7% last year and a 5-year average of 7%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 65% good-to-excellent compared to 13% poor-to-very poor, soybeans planted were estimated at 84% compared to 78% last week, 89% last year, and a 5-year average of 88%; soybeans emerged at 74% compared to 66% last week, 77% last year, and a 5-year average of 77%; and soybeans blooming at 8% compared to 7% last year and a 5-year average of 7%. Oct/Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $9.78 to $10.59 for the week. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.24, down 36 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.30 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 40 cents and set a $9.90 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.40 at the end of the week.

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for June 25 were 66.62 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 68.62 cents/lb (31-3-35). Upland cotton adjusted world price (AWP) increased 0.15 cents to 54.18 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 27,300 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 64,700 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 10% compared to last week at 184,500 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 109% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 115%. July 2025 cotton futures closed at 67.52 cents, up 3.4 cents since last Friday. For the week, July 2025 cotton futures traded between 63.59 and 67.63 cents. Jul/Dec and Jul/Mar cotton futures spreads were 1.8 cents and 3.08 cents.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 47% good-to-excellent and 20% poor-to-very poor; cotton planted at 92% compared to 85% last week, 93% last year, and a 5-year average of 95%; cotton squaring at 26% compared to 19% last week, 29% last year, and a 5-year average of 26%; and cotton setting bolls at 5% compared to 3% last week, 8% last year, and a 5-year average of 6%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 42% good-to-excellent and 31% poor-to-very poor; cotton planted at 91% compared to 87% last week, 99% last year, and a 5-year average of 98%; cotton squaring at 19% compared to 10% last week, 38% last year, and a 5-year average of 28%; and cotton setting bolls at 1% compared to 2% last year and a 5-year average of 2%. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 69.32 cents, up 2.56 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 70 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 3.55 cents establishing a 66.45 cent futures floor. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 70.6 cents, up 2.66 cents since last Friday.

Wheat

July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.24, down 43 cents since last Friday. July 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.36 and $5.85 this week. Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 9.4 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 29% compared to last week at 9.4 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 29% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2025/26 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 28%. Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat condition at 49% good-to-excellent and 19% poor-to-very poor; winter wheat headed at 96% compared to 93% last week, 97% last year, and a 5-year average of 96%; winter wheat harvested at 19% compared to 10% last week, 38% last year, and a 5-year average of 28%; spring wheat condition at 54% good-to-excellent and 15% poor-to-very poor; spring wheat emerged at 93% compared to 89% last week, 99% last year, and a 5-year average of 97%; and spring wheat headed at 17% compared to 4% last week, 16% last year, and a 5-year average of 18%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.68 to $5.53.

Jul/Sep and Jul/Jul future spreads were 16 and 74 cents. The July wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.26. September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.40, down 43 cents since last Friday. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.98, down 52 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $6.00 July 2026 Put Option costing 53 cents establishing a $5.47 futures floor.

Additional Information

Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news

If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu.