Crop Comments

by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist

September 12, 2025

Overview

Corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton up for the week

This week, markets were steady through the week and then interestingly rallied following the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Below are the highlights.

Wheat: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for unchanged supplies and domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price is reduced by $0.20 per bushel to $5.10 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.

Corn: This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for greater supplies, larger exports, and a slight reduction in ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2025/26 are 20 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2024/25, with reductions in imports and corn used for ethanol partially offset by an increase in exports. Corn production for 2025/26 is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, up 72 million from last month as a 2.1-bushel reduction in yield to 186.7 bushels per acre is more than offset by a 1.3 million acre increase in harvested area to 90.0 million acres. If realized, harvested area would be the highest since 1933 and planted area of 98.7 million acres the highest since 1936. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $3.90 per bushel.

Soybeans: The 2025/26 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher production, higher crush, lower exports, and higher ending stocks compared to last month. Soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, up slightly with higher harvested area offset by a lower yield. Harvested area is raised 0.2 million acres from the August forecast. The soybean yield of 53.5 bushels per acre is down marginally from last month. The crush forecast is raised 15 million bushels driven by stronger soybean meal exports. The soybean export forecast is reduced 20 million bushels on increased competition, particularly from Russia, Canada, and Argentina. Ending stocks are projected at 300 million bushels, up 10 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.00 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal and the soybean oil prices are unchanged at $280 per short ton and 53 cents per pound, respectively. Other changes this month include higher U.S. peanut production

Cotton: The September outlook for 2025/26 U.S. cotton supply and demand shows marginally higher production compared to last month, with no change to exports, consumption, imports, or stocks. The U.S. crop is projected 10,000 bales higher to 13.2 million bales, reflecting unchanged to slightly higher planted and harvested area in all regions. The national average yield is lowered 1 pound to 861 pounds per harvested acre. With no changes to consumption, exports, and ending stocks, the stocks-to-use ratio is also unchanged at just over 26 percent. The projected season average upland price for 2025/26 remains at 64 cents per pound.

Indicator	Previous	Current	Change
USD Index	97.77	97.57	-0.20
Crude Oil	61.99	62.04	0.05
DJIA	45443	45906	463

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 11 cents under to 12 cents over, with an average of even with the September futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending September 5 was 1.105 million barrels per day, up 30,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 22,837 million barrels, up 273,000 barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for August 29-September 4 were for the first week of the new marketing year, and had net sale of 21.3 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year (marketing year low) and the 2025/26 marketing year had net sales of 83.3 million bushels. There were net sales of 46.1 million bushels of carryover from the 24/25 marketing year. Exports for the period ending August 31, of 29.6 million bushels brought accumulated exports to 2.72 billion bushels, up 27% from the prior year’s total. Exports for the first week of the new 2025/26 marketing year was 27.1 million bushels. Cash prices ranged from $3.87 to $4.22 at elevators and barge points. September 2025 corn futures closed at $3.99, which is unchanged since last Friday. For the week, September 2025 corn futures traded between $3.99 and $4.03. Sep/Dec and Sep/Mar future spreads were 31 and 37 cents.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 68% good-to-excellent (down 1% from last week) and 9% poor-to-very poor (unchanged from last week); corn dough at 95% compared to 90% last week, 94% last year, and a 5-year average of 95%; corn dented at 74% compared to 58% last week, 72% last year and a 5-year average of 75%; corn mature at 25% compared to 15% last week, 28% last year and a 5-year average of 25%; and corn harvested at 4% compared to 5% last year and a 5-year average of 3%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 55% good-to-excellent (up 1% from last week) and 12% poor-to-very poor (down 4% from last week); corn dough at 99% compared to 98% last week, 97% last year, and a 5-year average of 99%; corn dented at 95% compared to 91% last week, 92% last year, and a 5-year average of 91%; corn mature at 66% compared to 60% last week, 74% last year and a 5-year average of 54%; and corn harvested at 28% compared to 12% last week, 29% last year and a 5-year average of 13%. This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $3.67 to $4.47 at elevators and barge points. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.30, up 12 cents since last Friday. March 2026 corn futures closed at $4.47, up 11 cent since last Friday.

Soybeans

Across Tennessee average soybean basis slightly strengthened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 53 under to 3 under the September futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 21 under. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters had net sales of 19.8 million bushels for 2025/2026 marketing year, which began September 1. A total of 28.1 million bushels in sales were carried over from the 2024/2025 marketing year, which ended August 31. Exports for the period ending August 31 of 14.9 million bushels brought accumulated exports to 1.84 billion bushels, up 13% from the prior year’s total. Exports for September 1-4 was 1.1 million bushels. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.54 to $10.11. September 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.25, up 19 cents since last Friday. For the week, September 2025 soybean futures traded between $10.05 and $10.25. The September soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.57 at the end of the week. Sep/Nov and Sep/Jan future spreads were 21 and 40 cents.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 64% good-to-excellent (down 1% from last week) and 10% poor-to-very poor (unchanged from last week); soybeans setting pods at 97% compared to 94% last week, 97% last year, and a 5-year average of 97%; and soybeans dropping leaves at 21% compared to 11% last week, 23% last year, and a 5-year average of 22%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 36% good-to-excellent (down 6% from last week) compared to 28% poor-to-very poor (up 3% from last week); soybeans setting pods at 94% compared to 93% last week, 97% last year, and a 5-year average of 96%; and soybeans dropping leaves at 41% compared to 26% last week, 44% last year, and a 5-year average of 25%. Oct/Nov cash prices at elevators and barge points were $9.54 to $10.08 for the week. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.46, up 19 cents since last Friday. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.43 at the end of the week. January 2026 soybean futures closed at $10.65, up 20 cents since last Friday.

Cotton

North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for September 12th were up to 64.12 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 68.87 cents/lb (31-3-35). Cotton net weekly sales totaled 129,600 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year, which is down 115,400 bales from last week. This makes sales down 47% from the previous week and 33% from the prior 4-week average. Exports for the same period were 130,200 bales which is down 24,500 bales compared to last week. Additionally, this makes exports down 16% from the previous week and down 2% from the prior 4-week average.

Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 54% good-to-excellent (up 3% from last week) and 11% poor-to-very poor (down 2% from last week); cotton setting bolls at 97% compared to 90% last week, 98% last year, and a 5-year average of 97%; cotton bolls opening at 40% compared to 28% last week, 44% last year and a 5- year average of 39%; and harvested at 8% compared to 7% last year, and a 5-year average of 6%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 32% good-to-excellent (down 6% from last week) and 33% poor-to-very poor (up 4% from last week); cotton setting bolls at 98% compared to 95% last week, 100% last year, and a 5-year average of 100%; and cotton bolls opening at 42% compared to 32% last week, 54% last year and a 5- year average of 26%. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 66.83 cents, up .80 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2025 cotton futures traded between 65.82 to 69.52 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/May cotton futures spreads were 1.92 cents and 3.29 cents. March 2026 cotton futures closed at 68.75 cents, up .79 cents since last Friday. May 2026 cotton futures closed at 70.12 cents, up .78 cents since last Friday.

Wheat

Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 11.2 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. This makes weekly sales down 2% from the previous week and 43% from the prior 4-week average. Exports for the same period were down 60% from the previous week at 13.1 million bushels. Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated spring wheat harvested at 85% compared to 72% last week, 83% last year, and a 5-year average of 84%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.60 to $4.68.

September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.03, up 2 cents since last Friday. September 2025 wheat futures traded between $4.96 and $5.06 this week. Sep/Dec and Sep/Jul future spreads were 20 and 58 cents. The September wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.26. December 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.23, up 4 cents since than last Friday. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.61, up 6 cents since last Friday.

Additional Information

Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news

If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at cmart113@utk.edu.