by Aaron Smith, Crops Marketing Specialist
April 4, 2025
Overview
Cotton and soybeans were down; corn was up; and wheat was mixed for the week.
This week tariffs created chaos in financial and commodity markets. On Thursday April 3, S&P 500 companies lost a combined $2.4 trillion in stock market value. Italy, the eighth largest economy in the world, has an annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $2.3 trillion. Two different economic measures, however, this provides an indication of the magnitude of the economic disruption that has occurred.
Commodities, such as soybeans and cotton, that count on export markets, plummeted after the U.S. announced sweeping tariffs on April 2nd. This was followed by retaliatory tariffs from China on April 4th. The result was significant futures market price declines on Thursday (April 3) and Friday (April 4) for soybeans (-18 and -34 ½ cents) and cotton (-3 and -1.44 cents). Wheat had a more muted response with nearby futures down 3 ¼ and 7 cents and nearby corn futures were largely unchanged with daily price changes of -¼ and +2 ¾ cents.
So as farmers plant 2025 crops what should they do? First, do not panic and make rash decisions. Sometimes waiting for more information is the best course of action. There is still a substantial amount of time between now and harvest. It is prudent to revisit cost of production estimates and crop insurance coverage. For cost of production estimates, consideration should be given to inputs that have not been purchased for the 2025 crop year. Tariffs have the potential to increase the cost of inputs such as fertilizer, parts, and fuel, which should be reflected in updated cost of production estimates.
Crop insurance provides a minimum level of price protection. Crop insurance prices in Tennessee were set at: wheat $5.94; cotton $0.69; corn $4.70; and soybeans $10.54. Revenue protection crop insurance provides downside price and yield protection. Downside price protection can be offset if 2025 yields are greater than the insured APH yield. However, taking the crop insurance price multiplied by the insurance coverage level provides an initial estimate of price coverage for the current marking year. For example, if a cotton farmer is buying 80% coverage the initial implied price coverage, assuming projected yield equals APH yield, is $0.69 x 80% or $0.55. This minimal level of price protection should be considered when making price risk management and marketing decisions. This year is shaping up to be one of the most challenging marketing years for crop producers. Attention to detail and flexible, well thought out risk management and marketing strategy is essential.
| Indicator | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 103.71 | 102.74 | -0.97 |
| Crude Oil | 69.36 | 62.62 | -6.74 |
| DJIA | 41,584 | 38,314 | -3,270 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened or remained unchanged at West, Northwest, West-Central, and North-Central elevators and barge points and weakened at Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 20 under to 25 over, with an average of 11 over the May futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending March 28 was 1.063 million barrels per day, up 10,000 compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 26.612 million barrels, down 0.738 million barrels compared to last week. Corn net sales reported by exporters for March 21-27 were net sales of 46.2 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 6.5 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 9% compared to last week at 71.1 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 87% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to the previous 5-year average of 88%. Cash prices ranged from $4.37 to $4.87 at elevators and barge points. May 2025 corn futures closed at $4.60, up 7 cents since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 corn futures traded between $4.44 and $4.65. July 2025 corn futures closed at $4.67, up 7 cents since last Friday.
| Corn | May 25 | Change | Dec 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.60 | $0.07 | $4.46 | $0.04 |
| Support | $4.41 | $0.04 | $4.38 | $0.03 |
| Resistance | $4.70 | $0.09 | $4.53 | $0.06 |
| 20 Day MA | $4.60 | $0.00 | $4.49 | -$0.01 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.80 | -$0.03 | $4.58 | -$0.02 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.68 | $0.01 | $4.50 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week High | $4.77 | $0.00 | $4.57 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.42 | $0.00 | $4.36 | -$0.01 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
May/Jul and May/Dec future spreads were 7 and -14 cents. December 2025 corn futures closed at $4.46, up 4 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.50 December 2025 Put Option costing 36 cents establishing a $4.14 futures floor. This week, Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged from $4.19 to $4.73 at elevators and barge points.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee the average soybean basis strengthened or remained unchanged at Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points and weakened at West elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 30 under to 22 over the May futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of even. Soybean net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 15.1 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 0.1 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 9% compared to last week at 30.9 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 93% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 94%. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $9.81 to $10.57. May 2025 soybean futures closed at $9.77, down 46 cents since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 soybean futures traded between $9.70 and $10.34. The May soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.12 at the end of the week. July 2025 soybean futures closed at $9.93, down 44 cents since last Friday.
| Soybeans | May 25 | Change | Nov 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $9.77 | -$0.46 | $9.84 | -$0.45 |
| Support | $9.55 | -$0.49 | $9.61 | -$0.49 |
| Resistance | $10.27 | -$0.06 | $10.33 | -$0.05 |
| 20 Day MA | $10.11 | $0.00 | $10.14 | $0.00 |
| 50 Day MA | $10.35 | -$0.04 | $10.34 | -$0.02 |
| 100 Day MA | $10.25 | -$0.02 | $10.24 | -$0.01 |
| 4-Week High | $10.36 | $0.00 | $10.39 | $0.05 |
| 4-Week Low | $9.70 | -$0.21 | $9.78 | -$0.18 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
May/Jul and May/Nov future spreads were 16 and 7 cents. November 2025 soybean futures closed at $9.84, down 45 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.00 November 2025 Put Option which would cost 65 cents and set a $9.35 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2025 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.21 at the end of the week. Oct/Nov cash contracts ranged between $9.77 and $10.57 this week at elevators and barge points.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for April 3 were 62.22 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 64.22 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) increased 1.56 cents to 55.22 cents. Cotton net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 129,100 bales for the 2024/25 marketing year and 40,000 bales for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up less than 1% compared to last week at 393,800 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 101% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 102%. May 2025 cotton futures closed at 63.36 cents, down 3.54 cents since last Friday. For the week, May 2025 cotton futures traded between 60.8 and 68.58 cents. July 2025 cotton futures closed at 64.56 cents, down 3.54 cents since last Friday.
| Cotton | May 25 | Change | Dec 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 63.36 | -3.54 | 66.16 | -3.93 |
| Support | 60.80 | -5.43 | 63.48 | -6.10 |
| Resistance | 66.65 | -0.78 | 69.59 | -0.95 |
| 20 Day MA | 66.26 | 0.36 | 69.27 | 0.34 |
| 50 Day MA | 66.78 | -0.22 | 69.02 | -0.01 |
| 100 Day MA | 68.64 | -0.39 | 69.78 | -0.20 |
| 4-Week High | 68.58 | 0.78 | 70.93 | 0.50 |
| 4-Week Low | 60.80 | -1.74 | 64.24 | -1.76 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | – |
May/Jul and May/Dec cotton futures spreads were 1.2 cents and 2.8 cents. December 2025 cotton futures closed at 66.16 cents, down 3.93 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 67 cent December 2025 Put Option costing 3.78 cents establishing a 63.22 cent futures floor.
Wheat
Wheat net weekly sales reported by exporters were net sales of 12.5 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year and 3.5 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up 17% compared to last week at 18.4 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 94% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to the previous 5-year average of 101%. Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $4.71 to $4.91. May 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.29, up 1 cent since last Friday. The May wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.15. May 2025 wheat futures traded between $5.20 and $5.44 this week.
| Wheat | May 25 | Change | Jul 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $5.29 | $0.01 | $5.42 | $0.00 |
| Support | $5.17 | $0.07 | $5.31 | $0.06 |
| Resistance | $5.51 | $0.10 | $5.65 | $0.08 |
| 20 Day MA | $5.48 | -$0.03 | $5.64 | -$0.03 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.66 | -$0.03 | $5.80 | -$0.02 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.63 | -$0.03 | $5.74 | -$0.03 |
| 4-Week High | $5.75 | $0.00 | $5.91 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $5.17 | $0.00 | $5.32 | $0.00 |
| Technical Trend | Down | = | Down | = |
May/Jul and May/Sep future spreads were 13 and 28 cents. July cash contracts at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.05 to $5.45. July 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.42, unchanged since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.45 July 2025 Put Option costing 27 cents establishing a $5.18 futures floor. September 2025 wheat futures closed at $5.57, down 2 cents since last Friday.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu.