by Charley Martinez, Farm Management Specialist
April 10, 2026
Overview
Soybeans and Cotton up for the week; Corn and Wheat down for the week
The USDA WASDE report was released this week:
Corn:
The USDA’s April WASDE report shows a largely unchanged outlook for U.S. corn in the 2025/26 marketing year. Ending stocks remain steady at 2.127 billion bushels, reflecting stable feed use, ethanol demand, and exports that continue to track USDA expectations. Production is projected at a record 17.02 billion bushels with a national average yield of 186.5 bushels per acre. The season‑average farm price was raised 5 cents to $4.15 per bushel, supported by reported prices to date. Globally, corn ending stocks were nudged slightly higher to about 294.8 million metric tons, with modest increases in world production and no major changes to South American output estimates. Overall, the corn balance sheet is considered neutral, with price support coming mainly from steady demand rather than tightening supplies.
Soybeans:
For soybeans, U.S. ending stocks were left unchanged at 350 million bushels, but the report included notable internal shifts in demand. USDA raised the domestic crush forecast by 35 million bushels to 2.61 billion, reflecting stronger soybean meal demand, while exports were reduced by the same amount due to a slower shipment pace and increased competition from Brazil. The season‑average farm price was increased 10 cents to $10.30 per bushel, with soybean meal and oil prices also trending higher. On the global side, world ending stocks were estimated slightly lower at approximately 124.8 million metric tons, as reduced stocks in Brazil and Argentina more than offset minor production gains elsewhere. The soybean outlook suggests firm domestic demand, though export competition continues to limit upside potential.
Cotton:
The April WASDE report reflects a relatively stable cotton outlook with modest price support. The U.S. season‑average farm price for upland cotton was increased by 1 cent to 61 cents, while no major changes were made to U.S. production or ending stocks. Globally, cotton production is expected to rise, particularly in China, India, and Pakistan, each projected to increase output by roughly 300,000 bales. However, USDA also projects higher global consumption, led by demand growth in China and India, which helps absorb the additional supply. As a result, the global cotton balance remains fairly well‑aligned, keeping prices steady to slightly higher despite increased production.
Fuel Prices:
| Time periods | Regular | Mid-Grade | Premium | Diesel | E85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Avg. | $4.15 | $4.67 | $5.03 | $5.68 | $3.30 |
| Yesterday Avg. | $4.17 | $4.68 | $5.04 | $5.69 | $3.31 |
| Week Ago Avg. | $4.09 | $4.61 | $4.97 | $5.53 | $3.25 |
| Month Ago Avg. | $3.54 | $4.04 | $4.41 | $4.78 | $2.82 |
| Year Ago Avg. | $3.22 | $3.70 | $4.05 | $3.62 | $2.70 |
Based on the table, average fuel prices show mixed short‑term movement but remain sharply higher than a year ago. Regular gasoline is currently averaging $4.15 per gallon, slightly lower than yesterday but up from $4.09 a week ago and well above $3.22 last year. Mid‑grade ($4.67) and premium ($5.03) fuels follow a similar pattern, easing marginally day‑to‑day while remaining substantially higher month‑to‑month and year‑over‑year. Diesel prices remain elevated at $5.68 per gallon, down a penny from yesterday but more than $2.00 higher than a year ago, highlighting continued pressure on transportation and agricultural costs. E85 is currently averaging $3.30, slightly below yesterday yet notably higher than levels seen a month and year ago. Overall, while daily price changes are modest, fuel costs across all categories remain significantly higher compared to historical averages.
| Previous | Current | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 100.02 | 98.67 | -1.35 |
| Crude Oil | 111.05 | 89.19 | -21.86 |
| DJIA | 46481 | 47916 | 1435 |
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) weakened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 25 cents under to 22 cents over, with an average of 4 cents over with the May futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending April 3rd was 1.116 million barrels, up 41,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 26.053 million barrels, up 62,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.22 to $4.91 at elevators and barge points.On Friday, September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.56, which is down 11 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 corn futures traded between $4.53 and $4.69.
| Corn | Sep 26 | Change | Dec 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $4.56 | -$0.11 | $4.72 | -$0.09 |
| Support | $4.53 | -$0.10 | $4.69 | -$0.09 |
| Resistance | $4.59 | -$0.12 | $4.75 | -$0.10 |
| 20 Day MA | $4.71 | -$0.02 | $4.84 | -$0.02 |
| 50 Day MA | $4.59 | $0.02 | $4.73 | $0.02 |
| 100 Day MA | $4.54 | $0.00 | $4.67 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week High | $4.85 | -$0.03 | $4.98 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $4.53 | $0.01 | $4.69 | $0.02 |
| Technical Trend | DOWN | = | DOWN | = |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated corn planted to be 3% compared to 2% last year, and a 5-year average of 2%. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.22 to $4.83 at elevators and barge points.For the week of March 27-April 2, 2026, there were net sales of 1,361,300 MT for 2025/2026, up 18% from the previous week and 8% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 1,829,900 MT, down 8% from the previous week, but up 3% from the prior 4-week average. December corn futures closed at $4.72, down 9 cents from last week.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 40 under to 25 over the May futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 6 cents under. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $11.53 to $11.90. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.58, up 5 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 soybean futures traded between $11.34 and $11.61.
| Soybeans | Sep 26 | Change | Nov 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $11.58 | $0.05 | $11.57 | $0.03 |
| Support | $11.53 | $0.04 | $11.52 | $0.03 |
| Resistance | $11.62 | $0.03 | $11.61 | $0.01 |
| 20 Day MA | $11.49 | -$0.02 | $11.48 | $0.00 |
| 50 Day MA | $11.31 | $0.07 | $11.30 | $0.08 |
| 100 Day MA | $11.09 | $0.02 | $11.09 | $0.02 |
| 4-Week High | $11.82 | -$0.01 | $11.74 | $0.00 |
| 4-Week Low | $11.18 | -$0.01 | $11.18 | $0.00 |
| Technical Trend | UP | = | UP | = |
For the week of March 27-April 2, 2026, there were net sales of 295,400 MT for 2025/2026, down 16% from the previous week and 34% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 636,000 MT, down 7% from the previous week and 35% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (430,700 MT), Mexico (65,400 MT), Indonesia (34,400 MT), Japan (33,900 MT), and Colombia (16,000 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.57, up 3 cents compared to last week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for April 9th were up compared to last week. Prices were 69.67 cents/lb (41-4-34), and 74.42 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both up .91 cents compared to last week’s prices.
| Cotton | May 26 | Change | Dec 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 73.22 | 2.30 | 76.89 | 1.91 |
| Support | 72.74 | 2.58 | 76.53 | 2.17 |
| Resistance | 73.67 | 2.19 | 77.18 | 1.63 |
| 20 Day MA | 69.57 | 1.84 | 73.77 | 1.64 |
| 50 Day MA | 66.54 | 0.69 | 70.77 | 0.72 |
| 100 Day MA | 66.00 | 0.29 | 69.46 | 0.42 |
| 4-Week High | 73.64 | 2.26 | 77.10 | 1.50 |
| 4-Week Low | 65.05 | 1.43 | 69.70 | 1.35 |
| Technical Trend | UP | = | UP | = |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton planted to be 5% compared to 4% last year, and a 5-year average of 5%. For the week March 27-April 2, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland totaling 319,600 RB for 2025/2026 were down 14% from the previous week, but up 25% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 342,700 RB were down 4% from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (126,200 RB), China (39,000 RB), India (37,100 RB), Pakistan (32,900 RB), and Bangladesh (32,100 RB). For the week, May 2026 cotton futures closed at 73.22 cents, up 2.3 cents compared to last week. December 2026 cotton futures closed at 76.89 cents, up 1.91 cents compared to last week.
Wheat
Wheat cash prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $5.60 to $5.93.
| Wheat | Jul 26 | Change | Sep 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $5.80 | -$0.29 | $5.93 | -$0.29 |
| Support | $5.76 | -$0.27 | $5.88 | -$0.28 |
| Resistance | $5.86 | -$0.31 | $5.98 | -$0.32 |
| 20 Day MA | $6.07 | -$0.04 | $6.20 | -$0.04 |
| 50 Day MA | $5.87 | $0.04 | $6.00 | $0.05 |
| 100 Day MA | $5.66 | $0.01 | $5.79 | $0.01 |
| 4-Week High | $6.36 | -$0.14 | $6.48 | -$0.12 |
| 4-Week Low | $5.77 | $0.03 | $5.90 | $0.04 |
| Technical Trend | DOWN | = | DOWN | = |
Nationally, the Crop Progress report estimated spring wheat planted to be 2% compared to 3% last year, and a 5-year average of 3%. The report estimated winter wheat headed to be 7% compared to 5% last year, and a 5-year average of 5%. For the week of March 27-April 2, 2026, net sales of 163,600 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 39% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 90,700 MT for 2026/2027 were primarily for Mexico (33,800 MT), the Philippines (18,000 MT), Japan (14,800 MT), unknown destinations (10,000 MT), and El Salvador (7,100 MT). Exports of 371,200 MT were up 9% from the previous week, but down 4% from the prior 4-week average. July 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.80, down 29 cents compared to last week.July 2026 wheat futures traded between $5.77 and $6.11 this week. September 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.80, down 29 cents compared to last week.
Additional Information
Links for data presented:
U.S. Export Sales – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx
EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm
EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates – https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm
Upland Cotton Reports – https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc
Tennessee Crop Progress – https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/
U.S. Crop Progress – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
USDA AMS: Market News – https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news
If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at cmart113@utk.edu.